Process based model sheds light on climate sensitivity of Mediterranean tree-ring width

We use the process-based VS (Vaganov-Shashkin) model to investigate whether a regional <i>Pinus halepensis</i> tree-ring chronology from Tunisia can be simulated as a function of climate alone by employing a biological model linking day length and daily temperature and precipitation (AD 1959–2004) from a climate station to ring-width variations. We check performance of the model on independent data by a validation exercise in which the model's parameters are tuned using data for 1982–2004 and the model is applied to generate tree-ring indices for 1959–1981. The validation exercise yields a highly significant positive correlation between the residual chronology and estimated growth curve (<i>r</i>=0.76 <i>p</i><0.0001, <i>n</i>=23). The model shows that the average duration of the growing season is 191 days, with considerable variation from year to year. On average, soil moisture limits tree-ring growth for 128 days and temperature for 63 days. Model results depend on chosen values of parameters, in particular a parameter specifying a balance ratio between soil moisture and precipitation. Future work in the Mediterranean region should include multi-year natural experiments to verify patterns of cambial-growth variation suggested by the VS model

Biogeographic, Atmospheric, and Climatic Factors Influencing Tree Growth in Mediterranean Aleppo Pine Forests

There is a lack of knowledge on how tree species respond to climatic constraints like water shortages and related atmospheric patterns across broad spatial and temporal scales. These assessments are needed to project which populations will better tolerate or respond to global warming across the tree species distribution range. Warmer and drier conditions have been forecasted for the Mediterranean Basin, where Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensisMill.) is the most widely distributed conifer in dry sites. This species shows plastic growth responses to climate, being particularly sensitive to drought. We evaluated how 32 Aleppo pine forests responded to climate during the second half of the 20th century by using dendrochronology. Climatic constraints of radial growth were inferred by fitting the Vaganov-Shashkin (VS-Lite) growth model to ring-width data from our Aleppo pine forest network. Our findings reported that Aleppo pine growth decreased and showed the highest common coherence among trees in dry, continental sites located in southeastern and eastern inland Spain and Algeria. In contrast, growth increased in wetter sites located in northeastern Spain. Overall, across the Aleppo pine network tree growth was enhanced by prior wet winters and cool and wet springs, whilst warm summers were associated with less growth. The relationships between site ring-width chronologies were higher in nearby forests. This explains why Aleppo pine growth was distinctly linked to indices of atmospheric circulation patterns depending on the geographical location of the forests. The western forests were more influenced by moisture and temperature conditions driven by the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) and the Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the southern forests by the East Atlantic (EA) and the august NAO, while the Balearic, Tunisian and northeastern sites by the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Scandinavian pattern (SCA). The climatic constraints for Aleppo pine tree growth and its biogeographical variability were well captured by the VS-Lite model. The model performed better in dry and continental sites, showing strong growth coherence between trees and climatic limitations of growth. Further research using similar broad-scale approaches to climate-growth relationships in drought-prone regions deserves more attention

Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era

Climate model projections suggest widespread drying in the Mediterranean Basin and wetting in Fennoscandia in the coming decades largely as a consequence of greenhouse gas forcing of climate. To place these and other “Old World” climate projections into historical perspective based on more complete estimates of natural hydroclimatic variability, we have developed the “Old World Drought Atlas” (OWDA), a set of year-to-year maps of tree-ring reconstructed summer wetness and dryness over Europe and the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era. The OWDA matches historical accounts of severe drought and wetness with a spatial completeness not previously available. In addition, megadroughts reconstructed over north-central Europe in the 11th and mid-15th centuries reinforce other evidence from North America and Asia that droughts were more severe, extensive, and prolonged over Northern Hemisphere land areas before the 20th century, with an inadequate understanding of their causes. The OWDA provides new data to determine the causes of Old World drought and wetness and attribute past climate variability to forced and/or internal variability

Age-related drought sensitivity of Atlas cedar (Cedrus atlantica) in the Moroccan Middle Atlas forests

[EN] Age-related tree responses to climate change are still poorly understood at the individual tree level. In this paper, we seek to disentangle the relative contribution of tree age to growth decline and growth-climate relationships in Atlas cedar (Cedrus atlantica Manetti) trees at the Middle Atlas Mountains, northern Morocco. Dendrochronological methods were applied to quantify growth-climate relationships using tree-ring width indices (TRWi) calculated for cedars of two contrasting age groups (old trees, age ≥150. years; young trees, age <150. years). TRWi-climate relationships were assessed at the site and tree levels by using response functions and linear mixed-effects models, respectively. Growth of the studied Atlas cedars was negatively affected by recurrent droughts and by the steep temperature rise since the 1970s. Response functions and mixed-effects models indicated that the decline in tree growth was mainly explained by diminishing precipitation. The negative association between cedar growth and temperature was stronger in old than in young trees. Vulnerability to temperature-induced drought stress in old cedar trees may lead to an impending growth decline. We argue that the age dependence of growth sensitivity to drought must be quantified and considered at the individual tree level when predicting the future dynamics and persistence of cedar forests in the Moroccan Middle Atlas. © 2012 Elsevier GmbH.J.C. Linares and L. Taïqui received financial support for this work from the Spanish Agency for International Cooperation and Develop (AECID), project A/024752/09. J.C. Linares is grateful to J.A. Carreira (Univ. Jaén) for providing additional support. L. Taïqui is grateful to M. Jabrane (Univ. Tetouan) and M. Benzyane, Ex-Director of the National Centre of Forest Research in Morocco, for providing the climatic data of Ifrane. J.J. Camarero acknowledges the financial support of ARAID and collaborative efforts within the Globimed network (www.globimed.net). We thank three anonymous reviewers for their comments which helped to improve a previous version of the manuscript.Peer Reviewe

Modelling climate and societal resilience in the Eastern Mediterranean in the last Millennium

This article analyses high-quality hydroclimate proxy records and spatial reconstructions from the Central and Eastern Mediterranean and compares them with two Earth System Model simulations (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P) for the Crusader period in the Levant (1095–1290 CE), the Mamluk regime in Transjordan (1260–1516 CE) and the Ottoman crisis and Celâlî Rebellion(1580–1610 CE). During the three time intervals, environmental and climatic stress tested the resilience of complex societies.We find that the multidecadal precipitation and drought variations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean cannot be explained by external forcings (solar variations, tropical volcanism); rather they were driven by internal climate dynamics. Our research emphasises the challenges, opportunities and limitations of linking proxy records, palaeoreconstructions and model simulations to better understand how climate can affect human history

Predicting species dominance shifts across elevation gradients in mountain forests in Greece under a warmer and drier climate

The Mediterranean Basin is expected to face warmer and drier conditions in the future, following projected increases in temperature and declines in precipitation. The aim of this study is to explore how forests dominated by Abies borisii-regis, Abies cephalonica, Fagus sylvatica, Pinus nigra and Quercus frainetto will respond under such conditions. We combined an individual-based model (GREFOS), with a novel tree ring data set in order to constrain tree diameter growth and to account for inter- and intraspecific growth variability. We used wood density data to infer tree longevity, taking into account inter- and intraspecific variability. The model was applied at three 500-m-wide elevation gradients at Taygetos in Peloponnese, at Agrafa on Southern Pindos and at Valia Kalda on Northern Pindos in Greece. Simulations adequately represented species distribution and abundance across the elevation gradients under current climate. We subsequently used the model to estimate species and functional trait shifts under warmer and drier future conditions based on the IPCC A1B scenario. In all three sites, a retreat of less drought-tolerant species and an upward shift of more drought-tolerant species were simulated. These shifts were also associated with changes in two key functional traits, in particular maximum radial growth rate and wood density. Drought-tolerant species presented an increase in their average maximal growth and decrease in their average wood density, in contrast to less drought-tolerant species

The North American tree-ring fire-scar network

Fire regimes in North American forests are diverse and modern fire records are often too short to capture important patterns, trends, feedbacks, and drivers of variability. Tree-ring fire scars provide valuable perspectives on fire regimes, including centuries-long records of fire year, season, frequency, severity, and size. Here, we introduce the newly compiled North American tree-ring fire-scar network (NAFSN), which contains 2562 sites, >37,000 fire-scarred trees, and covers large parts of North America. We investigate the NAFSN in terms of geography, sample depth, vegetation, topography, climate, and human land use. Fire scars are found in most ecoregions, from boreal forests in northern Alaska and Canada to subtropical forests in southern Florida and Mexico. The network includes 91 tree species, but is dominated by gymnosperms in the genus Pinus. Fire scars are found from sea level to >4000-m elevation and across a range of topographic settings that vary by ecoregion. Multiple regions are densely sampled (e.g., >1000 fire-scarred trees), enabling new spatial analyses such as reconstructions of area burned. To demonstrate the potential of the network, we compared the climate space of the NAFSN to those of modern fires and forests; the NAFSN spans a climate space largely representative of the forested areas in North America, with notable gaps in warmer tropical climates. Modern fires are burning in similar climate spaces as historical fires, but disproportionately in warmer regions compared to the historical record, possibly related to under-sampling of warm subtropical forests or supporting observations of changing fire regimes. The historical influence of Indigenous and non-Indigenous human land use on fire regimes varies in space and time. A 20th century fire deficit associated with human activities is evident in many regions, yet fire regimes characterized by frequent surface fires are still active in some areas (e.g., Mexico and the southeastern United States). These analyses provide a foundation and framework for future studies using the hundreds of thousands of annually- to sub-annually-resolved tree-ring records of fire spanning centuries, which will further advance our understanding of the interactions among fire, climate, topography, vegetation, and humans across North America

Runoff variations in Lake Balkhash Basin, Central Asia, 1779-2015, inferred from tree rings

Long highly-resolved proxies for runoff are in high demand for hydrological forecasts and water management in arid Central Asia. An accurate (R2 = 0.53) reconstruction of October-September discharge of the Ili River in Kazakhstan, 1779–2015, is developed from moisture-sensitive tree rings of spruce sampled in the Tian Shan Mountains. The fivefold extension of the gauged discharge record represents the variability of runoff in the Lake Balkhash Basin for the last 235 years. The reconstruction shows a 40 year long interval of low discharge preceded a recent high peak in the first decade of the 2000s followed by a decline to more recent levels of discharge not seen since the start of the gauged record. Most reconstructed flow extremes (± 2σ) occur outside the instrumental record (1936–2015) and predate the start of large dam construction (1969). Decadal variability of the Ili discharge corresponds well with hydrological records of other Eurasian internal drainages modeled with tree rings. Spectral analysis identifies variance peaks (highest near 42 year) consistent with main hemispheric oscillations of the Eurasian climatic system. Seasonal comparison of the Ili discharge with sea-level-pressure and geopotential height data suggests periods of high flow likely result from the increased contribution of snow to runoff associated with the interaction of Arctic air circulation with the Siberian High-Pressure System and North Atlantic Oscillation

Tropical tree growth driven by dry-season climate variability

Interannual variability in the global land carbon sink is strongly related to variations in tropical temperature and rainfall. This association suggests an important role for moisture-driven fluctuations in tropical vegetation productivity, but empirical evidence to quantify the responsible ecological processes is missing. Such evidence can be obtained from tree-ring data that quantify variability in a major vegetation productivity component: woody biomass growth. Here we compile a pantropical tree-ring network to show that annual woody biomass growth increases primarily with dry-season precipitation and decreases with dry-season maximum temperature. The strength of these dry-season climate responses varies among sites, as reflected in four robust and distinct climate response groups of tropical tree growth derived from clustering. Using cluster and regression analyses, we find that dry-season climate responses are amplified in regions that are drier, hotter and more climatically variable. These amplification patterns suggest that projected global warming will probably aggravate drought-induced declines in annual tropical vegetation productivity. Our study reveals a previously underappreciated role of dry-season climate variability in driving the dynamics of tropical vegetation productivity and consequently in influencing the land carbon sink.We acknowledge financial support to the co-authors provided by Agencia Nacional de Promoción Científica y Tecnológica, Argentina (PICT 2014-2797) to M.E.F.; Alberta Mennega Stichting to P.G.; BBVA Foundation to H.A.M. and J.J.C.; Belspo BRAIN project: BR/143/A3/HERBAXYLAREDD to H.B.; Confederação da Agricultura e Pecuária do Brasil - CNA to C.F.; Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES, Brazil (PDSE 15011/13-5 to M.A.P.; 88881.135931/2016-01 to C.F.; 88887.199858/2018-00 to G.A.-P.; Finance Code 001 for all Brazilian collaborators); Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - CNPq, Brazil (ENV 42 to O.D.; 1009/4785031-2 to G.C.; 311874/2017-7 to J.S.); CONACYT-CB-2016-283134 to J.V.-D.; CONICET to F.A.R.; CUOMO FOUNDATION (IPCC scholarship) to M.M.; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft - DFG (BR 1895/15-1 to A.B.; BR 1895/23-1 to A.B.; BR 1895/29-1 to A.B.; BR 1895/24-1 to M.M.); DGD-RMCA PilotMAB to B.T.; Dirección General de Asuntos del Personal Académico of the UNAM (Mexico) to R.B.; Elsa-Neumann-Scholarship of the Federal State of Berlin to F.S.; EMBRAPA Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation to C.F.; Equatorian Dirección de Investigación UNL (21-DI-FARNR-2019) to D.P.-C.; São Paulo Research Foundation FAPESP (2009/53951-7 to M.T.-F.; 2012/50457-4 to G.C.; 2018/01847‐0 to P.G.; 2018/24514-7 to J.R.V.A.; 2019/08783-0 to G.M.L.; 2019/27110-7 to C.F.); FAPESP-NERC 18/50080-4 to G.C.; FAPITEC/SE/FUNTEC no. 01/2011 to M.A.P.; Fulbright Fellowship to B.J.E.; German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) to M.I. and M.R.; German Ministry of Education, Science, Research, and Technology (FRG 0339638) to O.D.; ICRAF through the Forests, Trees, and Agroforestry research programme of the CGIAR to M.M.; Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI-SGP-CRA 2047) to J.V.-D.; International Foundation for Science (D/5466-1) to M.I.; Lamont Climate Center to B.M.B.; Miquelfonds to P.G.; National Geographic Global Exploration Fund (GEFNE80-13) to I.R.; USA’s National Science Foundation NSF (IBN-9801287 to A.J.L.; GER 9553623 and a postdoctoral fellowship to B.J.E.); NSF P2C2 (AGS-1501321) to A.C.B., D.G.-S. and G.A.-P.; NSF-FAPESP PIRE 2017/50085-3 to M.T.-F., G.C. and G.M.L.; NUFFIC-NICHE programme (HEART project) to B.K., E.M., J.H.S., J.N. and R. Vinya; Peru ‘s CONCYTEC and World Bank (043-2019-FONDECYT-BM-INC.INV.) to J.G.I.; Peru’s Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico, Tecnológico y de Innovación Tecnológica (FONDECYT-BM-INC.INV 039-2019) to E.J.R.-R. and M.E.F.; Programa Bosques Andinos - HELVETAS Swiss Intercooperation to M.E.F.; Programa Nacional de Becas y Crédito Educativo - PRONABEC to J.G.I.; Schlumberger Foundation Faculty for the Future to J.N.; Sigma Xi to A.J.L.; Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute to R. Alfaro-Sánchez.; Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs AECID (11-CAP2-1730) to H.A.M. and J.J.C.; UK NERC grant NE/K01353X/1 to E.G.Peer reviewe

Dendrochronology course in Valsaín forest, Segovia, Spain

Touchan, R.... et al.This report describes an international summer course, >Tree Rings, Climate, Natural Resources, and Human Interaction>, held in Valsaín, Spain, in summer of 2012. The course, with 14 participants from three countries (Spain, Algeria, and Russia), included basic training in dendrochronology skills as well as applied projects in dendroclimatology, dendroecology and dendrogeomorphology. Copyright © 2013 by The Tree-Ring Society.This International Summer School was carried out in collaboration with the Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, from the United States, and IGME (Instituto Geológico y Minero de España), IPE-CSIC (Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología - Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas), ARAID foundation, INIA-CIFOR (Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria-Centro de Investigación Forestal) and University of Córdoba, from Spain. The organizers sincerely thank the CENEAM (National Center for Environmental Education), Montes de Valsaín and OAPN (Organismo Autónomo de Parques Nacionales) from the Ministerio de Agricultura, Alimentación, y Medio Ambiente in Spain for the support and facilities to organize this course. We thank Drs. Rafael Herrera, Mar Génova and Guillermo Gea-Izquierdo for their contributions in the course. We thank AEET (Asociación Española de Ecología Terrestre) from Spain for generous grants provided to students. We thank the course sponsors: Tree-Ring Society, National Science Foundation-USA (Grant AGS-Paleo Perspectives on Climate Change Program 1103314), Regents Instruments, Beta Analytic, and Cox Analytical Systems.Peer Reviewe