Differing marine animal biomass shifts under 21st century climate change between Canada's three ocean

Identificadors digitals: Digital object identifier for the 'European Research Council' (http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000781) and Digital object identifier for 'Horizon 2020' (http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100007601)Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-MUnder climate change, species composition and abundances in high-latitude waters are expected to substantially reconfigure with consequences for trophic relationships and ecosystem services. Outcomes are challenging to project at national scales, despite their importance for management decisions. Using an ensemble of six global marine ecosystem models we analyzed marine ecosystem responses to climate change from 1971 to 2099 in Canada's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) under four standardized emissions scenarios. By 2099, under business-as-usual emissions (RCP8.5) projected marine animal biomass declined by an average of −7.7% (±29.5%) within the Canadian EEZ, dominated by declines in the Pacific (−24% ± 24.5%) and Atlantic (−25.5% ± 9.5%) areas; these were partially compensated by increases in the Canadian Arctic (+26.2% ± 38.4%). Lower emissions scenarios projected successively smaller biomass changes, highlighting the benefits of stronger mitigation targets. Individual model projections were most consistent in the Atlantic and Pacific, but highly variable in the Arctic due to model uncertainties in polar regions. Different trajectories of future marine biomass changes will require regional-specific responses in conservation and management strategies, such as adaptive planning of marine protected areas and species-specific management plans, to enhance resilience and rebuilding of Canada's marine ecosystems and commercial fish stocks

How Many Species Are There on Earth and in the Ocean?

The diversity of life is one of the most striking aspects of our planet; hence knowing how many species inhabit Earth is among the most fundamental questions in science. Yet the answer to this question remains enigmatic, as efforts to sample the world's biodiversity to date have been limited and thus have precluded direct quantification of global species richness, and because indirect estimates rely on assumptions that have proven highly controversial. Here we show that the higher taxonomic classification of species (i.e., the assignment of species to phylum, class, order, family, and genus) follows a consistent and predictable pattern from which the total number of species in a taxonomic group can be estimated. This approach was validated against well-known taxa, and when applied to all domains of life, it predicts ∼8.7 million (±1.3 million SE) eukaryotic species globally, of which ∼2.2 million (±0.18 million SE) are marine. In spite of 250 years of taxonomic classification and over 1.2 million species already catalogued in a central database, our results suggest that some 86% of existing species on Earth and 91% of species in the ocean still await description. Renewed interest in further exploration and taxonomy is required if this significant gap in our knowledge of life on Earth is to be closed

Emergent global patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic general ecosystem model

Anthropogenic activities are causing widespread degradation of ecosystems worldwide, threatening the ecosystem services upon which all human life depends. Improved understanding of this degradation is urgently needed to improve avoidance and mitigation measures. One tool to assist these efforts is predictive models of ecosystem structure and function that are mechanistic: based on fundamental ecological principles. Here we present the first mechanistic General Ecosystem Model (GEM) of ecosystem structure and function that is both global and applies in all terrestrial and marine environments. Functional forms and parameter values were derived from the theoretical and empirical literature where possible. Simulations of the fate of all organisms with body masses between 10 µg and 150,000 kg (a range of 14 orders of magnitude) across the globe led to emergent properties at individual (e.g., growth rate), community (e.g., biomass turnover rates), ecosystem (e.g., trophic pyramids), and macroecological scales (e.g., global patterns of trophic structure) that are in general agreement with current data and theory. These properties emerged from our encoding of the biology of, and interactions among, individual organisms without any direct constraints on the properties themselves. Our results indicate that ecologists have gathered sufficient information to begin to build realistic, global, and mechanistic models of ecosystems, capable of predicting a diverse range of ecosystem properties and their response to human pressures

Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status

Achieving global biodiversity goals by 2050 requires urgent and integrated actions

Governments are negotiating actions intended to halt biodiversity loss and put it on a path to recovery by 2050. Here, we show that bending the curve for biodiversity is possible, but only if actions are implemented urgently and in an integrated manner. Connecting these actions to biodiversity outcomes and tracking progress remain a challenge

Step Together Integrating Care for People with Epilepsy and a Learning Disability

Epilepsy is more common in people with a learning disability and/or autism than the general population. It is more likely to be difficult to control too. Seizures can have a profound impact on a person’s ability to live and enjoy their life. It also impacts on their level of learning disability and functional interaction with others. Poorly controlled epilepsy can also present as a huge burden of care and anxiety to family members and carers. Seizures are often distressing to witness, can require urgent intervention and can lead to injury or sudden and premature death. The recently published LeDeR report (2020) reminds us yet again that too often people with learning disability and/or autism die many years sooner than they should and epilepsy is a frequently associated cause of this. We know that good seizure control for individuals with the most complex seizures often requires complex assessments and investigations e.g. telemetry, genetic testing, brain imaging etc. It may require trials of treatments that can come with side effects and interactions with other drugs. With good seizure control, people’s lives, both in terms of quality and length of life, can be transformed. It is absolutely right, therefore, that we should expect the highest standards of investigations, care and treatment for people with the most complex epilepsy irrespective of whether they have a learning disability and/or autism. People with a learning disability and/or autism often have multiple professionals involved in their care and support for social care, health care and emotional and behavioural difficulties. Historically it has been quite complex and varied as to who the lead medical professional or team has been in managing a persons’ epilepsy. This has often depended on the history of service configuration and suitable clinical skill availability in localities. Specific interests and expertise of clinicians and what the local commissioning priorities have been have been instrumental in shaping local area services. This guidance does not recommend that only one type of professional or a particular team can or should be involved in leading epilepsy care for people with a learning disability and/or autism. More importantly it recognises the standards of care that people and their families should expect and describes existing competency/skill frameworks such as the bronze, silver gold levels suggested by the Royal College of Psychiatrists and collects these across professions to suggest a way of recognising aggregated standards of care and describing the ‘ideal service’. This should enable both commissioners of care and providers of care to recognise what is currently available to people and what could or should be available if their needs are going to be fully and satisfactorily met. It is clear more collaborative working between General Practice, Learning Disability Mental Health Services, specialist nursing services and Neurology/Epileptology services is needed and this is a welcome recommendation. This guidance should be used by commissioners of health care to audit and assure themselves that the services they are commissioning meet the needs of their population and that there is the correct aspiration to improve and provide access to 5* services when needed. It should be used by clinicians in both primary and secondary care to recognise service gaps and build more collaborative models of working. Families and carers should also look at the services they receive and see if they measure up to what they need using some of the ideas provided here. Whilst this guidance is specifically focussed on the needs of people with learning disability who have epilepsy there are many people with autism (without a learning disability) who also have epilepsy and the principles in this guidance should be equally applied to commissioning services for this group of individuals too. Perhaps for me, the most important thing is the need to end any sense of futility or nihilism. For far too long there has been an attitude amongst some professionals that more complex epilepsies are intractable and fully resistant to treatment. This may lead them to think it is futile to keep trying to improve the situation or that it is not a commissioning priority. This is countered by stories of individuals whose lives have genuinely been transformed by opportunities to have ‘fresh eyes’ assess their epilepsy or try new treatments. In order to decrease premature and avoidable mortality and to improve quality of life for people and their families, we must use this guidance to transform services and be ambitious for good epilepsy management and optimum seizure control for people with a learning disability and/or autism

Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change

While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends

Current and Future Patterns of Global Marine Mammal Biodiversity

Quantifying the spatial distribution of taxa is an important prerequisite for the preservation of biodiversity, and can provide a baseline against which to measure the impacts of climate change. Here we analyse patterns of marine mammal species richness based on predictions of global distributional ranges for 115 species, including all extant pinnipeds and cetaceans. We used an environmental suitability model specifically designed to address the paucity of distributional data for many marine mammal species. We generated richness patterns by overlaying predicted distributions for all species; these were then validated against sightings data from dedicated long-term surveys in the Eastern Tropical Pacific, the Northeast Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. Model outputs correlated well with empirically observed patterns of biodiversity in all three survey regions. Marine mammal richness was predicted to be highest in temperate waters of both hemispheres with distinct hotspots around New Zealand, Japan, Baja California, the Galapagos Islands, the Southeast Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. We then applied our model to explore potential changes in biodiversity under future perturbations of environmental conditions. Forward projections of biodiversity using an intermediate Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) temperature scenario predicted that projected ocean warming and changes in sea ice cover until 2050 may have moderate effects on the spatial patterns of marine mammal richness. Increases in cetacean richness were predicted above 40° latitude in both hemispheres, while decreases in both pinniped and cetacean richness were expected at lower latitudes. Our results show how species distribution models can be applied to explore broad patterns of marine biodiversity worldwide for taxa for which limited distributional data are available