Pursuing climate resilient coffee in Ethiopia – a critical review

This paper provides a multi-scalar examination of the Ethiopian coffee sector and its pursuit of climate resilience. Concern is growing about the potential impact of climate change on Arabica coffee in Ethiopia and the 25 million livelihoods it supports. Arabica coffee has a relatively narrow envelope of climatic suitability and recent studies suggest that the area of bioclimatically suitable space for the species in its native Ethiopia could decline dra- matically in the coming decades. We adopt a critical perspective on resilience that reflects on the situated nature of the ecology/science of coffee and climate change and the operation of social, economic, and discursive power across scales, paying particular attention to the differentiated impacts of climate change and associated resi- lience strategies. This analysis begins by reviewing Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy strategy and argues that the current lack of attention to coffee is inappropriate considering the coffee sector’s vulnerability to climate change, economic importance and association with forests. The paper then examines the contemporary coffee sector which provides the context for reflecting on three potential responses to the threat climate change poses; a spatial response from farmers, adaptive farm management responses such as changing shade levels and the development of the country’s genetic resources to cultivate improved varieties. The analysis explores the disconnect between the interventions emerging from national and international institutions and the local con- text. The multi-scale approach highlights the presence of complex normative trade-offs associated with pursing climate resilience strategies and reinforces the importance of appreciating the dynamics which influence deci- sion-making in the country

The global atmospheric electrical circuit and climate

Evidence is emerging for physical links among clouds, global temperatures, the global atmospheric electrical circuit and cosmic ray ionisation. The global circuit extends throughout the atmosphere from the planetary surface to the lower layers of the ionosphere. Cosmic rays are the principal source of atmospheric ions away from the continental boundary layer: the ions formed permit a vertical conduction current to flow in the fair weather part of the global circuit. Through the (inverse) solar modulation of cosmic rays, the resulting columnar ionisation changes may allow the global circuit to convey a solar influence to meteorological phenomena of the lower atmosphere. Electrical effects on non-thunderstorm clouds have been proposed to occur via the ion-assisted formation of ultra-fine aerosol, which can grow to sizes able to act as cloud condensation nuclei, or through the increased ice nucleation capability of charged aerosols. Even small atmospheric electrical modulations on the aerosol size distribution can affect cloud properties and modify the radiative balance of the atmosphere, through changes communicated globally by the atmospheric electrical circuit. Despite a long history of work in related areas of geophysics, the direct and inverse relationships between the global circuit and global climate remain largely quantitatively unexplored. From reviewing atmospheric electrical measurements made over two centuries and possible paleoclimate proxies, global atmospheric electrical circuit variability should be expected on many timescale

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

Het syndroom van Lemierre en de neurologische complicaties

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Airborne studies of emissions from savanna fires in southern Africa. 2. Aerosol chemical composition

We investigated smoke emissions from fires in savanna, forest, and agricultural ecosystems by airborne sampling of plumes close to prescribed burns and incidental fires in southern Africa. Aerosol samples were collected on glass fiber filters and on stacked filter units, consisting of a Nuclepore prefilter for particles larger than ∼1–2 μm and a Teflon second filter stage for the submicron fraction. The samples were analyzed for soluble ionic components, organic carbon, and black carbon. Onboard the research aircraft, particle number and volume distributions as a function of size were determined with a laser‐optical particle counter and the black carbon content of the aerosol with an aethalometer. We determined the emission ratios (relative to CO2 and CO) and emission factors (relative to the amount of biomass burnt) for the various aerosol constituents. The smoke aerosols were rich in organic and black carbon, the latter representing 10–30% of the aerosol mass. K+ and NH4+ were the dominant cationic species in the smoke of most fires, while Cl− and SO42- were the most important anions. The aerosols were unusually rich in Cl−, probably due to the high Cl content of the semiarid vegetation. Comparison of the element budget of the fuel before and after the fires shows that the fraction of the elements released during combustion is highly variable between elements. In the case of the halogen elements, almost the entire amount released during the fire is present in the aerosol phase, while in the case of C, N, and S, only a small proportion ends up as particulate matter. This suggests that the latter elements are present predominantly as gaseous species in the fresh fire plumes studied here

Successful programs wanted: exploring the impact of alignment.

Alignment between formulation and implementation of business strategy can be important for achieving successful programmes. The authors have explored developing a programme management alignment theory. Statistical testing suggests that interaction between the study model variables was found to be multidimensional, complex and subtle in influence. They conclude that programmes have both deliberate and emergent strategies requiring design and management to be organised as complex adaptive systems. Programme lifecycle phases of design and transition were often illustrated by an unclear and confusing strategic picture at the outset which makes it difficult to control. Learning was established as an underlying challenge. The study model demonstrated continuous alignment as an essential attribute contributing towards successful delivery. This requires programme design and structure to adopt an adaptive posture