Food systems in a zero-deforestation world: Dietary change is more important than intensification for climate targets in 2050

Global food systems contribute to climate change, the transgression of planetary boundaries and deforestation. An improved understanding of the environmental impacts of different food system futures is crucial for forging strategies to sustainably nourish a growing world population. We here quantify the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of global food system scenarios within a biophysically feasible “option space” in 2050 comprising all scenarios in which biomass supply – calculated as function of agricultural area and yields – is sufficient to cover biomass demand – derived from human diets and the feed demand of livestock. We assessed the biophysical feasibility of 520 scenarios in a hypothetical no-deforestation world. For all feasible scenarios, we calculate (in) direct GHG emissions related to agriculture. We also include (possibly negative) GHG emissions from land-use change, including changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) and carbon sinks from vegetation regrowth on land spared from food production. We identify 313 of 520 scenarios as feasible. Agricultural GHG emissions (excluding land use change) of feasible scenarios range from 1.7 to 12.5 Gt CO2e yr−1. When including changes in SOC and vegetation regrowth on spare land, the range is between −10.7 and 12.5 Gt CO2e yr−1. Our results show that diets are the main determinant of GHG emissions, with highest GHG emissions found for scenarios including high meat demand, especially if focused on ruminant meat and milk, and lowest emissions for scenarios with vegan diets. Contrary to frequent claims, our results indicate that diets and the composition and quantity of livestock feed, not crop yields, are the strongest determinants of GHG emissions from food-systems when existing forests are to be protected

Anti-androgens act jointly in suppressing spiggin concentrations in androgen-primed female three-spined sticklebacks - Prediction of combined effects by concentration addition

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in Aquatic Toxicology. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2013 Elsevier B.V.Increasing attention is being directed at the role played by anti-androgenic chemicals in endocrine disruption of wildlife within the aquatic environment. The co-occurrence of multiple contaminants with anti-androgenic activity highlights a need for the predictive assessment of combined effects, but information about anti-androgen mixture effects on wildlife is lacking. This study evaluated the suitability of the androgenised female stickleback screen (AFSS), in which inhibition of androgen-induced spiggin production provides a quantitative assessment of anti-androgenic activity, for predicting the effect of a four component mixture of anti-androgens. The anti-androgenic activity of four known anti-androgens (vinclozolin, fenitrothion, flutamide, linuron) was evaluated from individual concentration-response data and used to design a mixture containing each chemical at equipotent concentrations. Across a 100-fold concentration range, a concentration addition approach was used to predict the response of fish to the mixture. Two studies were conducted independently at each of two laboratories. By using a novel method to adjust for differences between nominal and measured concentrations, good agreement was obtained between the actual outcome of the mixture exposure and the predicted outcome. This demonstrated for the first time that androgen receptor antagonists act in concert in an additive fashion in fish and that existing mixture methodology is effective in predicting the outcome, based on concentration-response data for individual chemicals. The sensitivity range of the AFSS assay lies within the range of anti-androgenicity reported in rivers across many locations internationally. The approach taken in our study lays the foundations for understanding how androgen receptor antagonists work together in fish and is essential in informing risk assessment methods for complex anti-androgenic mixtures in the aquatic environment.European Commission and Natural Environment Research Council

International comparability of reference unit costs of education services: when harmonizing methodology is not enough (PECUNIA project)

Background: Health problems can lead to costs in the education sector. However, these costs are rarely incorporated in health economic evaluations due to the lack of reference unit costs (RUCs), cost per unit of service, of education services and of validated methods to obtain them. In this study, a standardized unit cost calculation tool developed in the PECUNIA project, the PECUNIA RUC Template for services, was applied to calculate the RUCs of selected education services in five European countries. Methods: The RUCs of special education services and of educational therapy were calculated using the information collected via an exploratory gray literature search and contact with service providers. Results: The RUCs of special education services ranged from €55 to €189 per school day. The RUCs of educational therapy ranged from €6 to €25 per contact and from €5 to €35 per day. Variation was observed in the type of input data and measurement unit, among other. Discussion: The tool helped reduce variability in the RUCs related to costing methodology and gain insights into other aspects that contribute to the variability (e.g. data availability). Further research and efforts to generate high quality input data are required to reduce the variability of the RUCs

The identification of economically relevant health and social care services for mental disorders in the PECUNIA project

Background: Health economic research is still facing significant problems regarding the standardization and international comparability of health care services. As a result, comparative effectiveness studies and cost-effectiveness analyses are often not comparable. This study is part of the PECUNIA project, which aimed to improve the comparability of economic evaluations by developing instruments for the internationally standardized measurement and valuation of health care services for mental disorders. The aim of this study was to identify internationally relevant services in the health and social care sectors relevant for health economic studies for mental disorders. Methods: A systematic literature review on cost-of-illness studies and economic evaluations was conducted to identify relevant services, complemented by an additional grey literature search and a search of resource use measurement (RUM) questionnaires. A preliminary long-list of identified services was explored and reduced to a short-list by multiple consolidation rounds within the international research team and an external international expert survey in six European countries. Results: After duplicate removal, the systematic search yielded 15,218 hits. From these 295 potential services could be identified. The grey literature search led to 368 and the RUM search to 36 additional potential services. The consolidation process resulted in a preliminary list of 186 health and social care services which underwent an external expert survey. A final consolidation step led to a basic list of 56 services grouped into residential care, daycare, outpatient care, information for care, accessibility to care, and self-help and voluntary care. Conclusions: The initial literature searches led to an extensive number of potential service items for health and social care. Many of these items turned out to be procedures, interventions or providing professionals rather than services and were removed from further analysis. The resulting list was used as a basis for typological coding, the development of RUM questionnaires and corresponding unit costs for international mental health economic studies in the PECUNIA project.</p

Long-range Angular Correlations On The Near And Away Side In P-pb Collisions At √snn=5.02 Tev

7191/Mar294

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

First measurement of Ωc0 production in pp collisions at s=13 TeV

The inclusive production of the charm–strange baryon 0 c is measured for the first time via its hadronic √ decay into −π+ at midrapidity (|y| &lt;0.5) in proton–proton (pp) collisions at the centre-of-mass energy s =13 TeV with the ALICE detector at the LHC. The transverse momentum (pT) differential cross section multiplied by the branching ratio is presented in the interval 2 &lt; pT &lt; 12 GeV/c. The pT dependence of the 0 c-baryon production relative to the prompt D0-meson and to the prompt 0 c-baryon production is compared to various models that take different hadronisation mechanisms into consideration. In the measured pT interval, the ratio of the pT-integrated cross sections of 0 c and prompt + c baryons multiplied by the −π+ branching ratio is found to be larger by a factor of about 20 with a significance of about 4σ when compared to e+e− collisions

Elliptic flow of charged particles at midrapidity relative to the spectator plane in Pb–Pb and Xe–Xe collisions

Measurements of the elliptic flow coefficient relative to the collision plane defined by the spectator neutrons v2{ SP} in collisions of Pb ions at center-of-mass energy per nucleon–nucleon pair √ 2.76 TeV and Xe ions at √ sNN = sNN =5.44 TeV are reported. The results are presented for charged particles produced at midrapidity as a function of centrality and transverse momentum for the 5–70% and 0.2–6 GeV/c ranges, respectively. The ratio between v2{ SP} and the elliptic flow coefficient relative to the participant plane v2{4}, estimated using four-particle correlations, deviates by up to 20% from unity depending on centrality. This observation differs strongly from the magnitude of the corresponding eccentricity ratios predicted by the TRENTo and the elliptic power models of initial state fluctuations that are tuned to describe the participant plane anisotropies. The differences can be interpreted as a decorrelation of the neutron spectator plane and the reaction plane because of fragmentation of the remnants from the colliding nuclei, which points to an incompleteness of current models describing the initial state fluctuations. A significant transverse momentum dependence of the ratio v2{ SP}/v2{4} is observed in all but the most central collisions, which may help to understand whether momentum anisotropies at low and intermediate transverse momentum have a common origin in initial state f luctuations. The ratios of v2{ SP} and v2{4} to the corresponding initial state eccentricities for Xe–Xe and Pb–Pb collisions at similar initial entropy density show a difference of (7.0 ±0.9)%with an additional variation of +1.8% when including RHIC data in the TRENTo parameter extraction. These observations provide new experimental constraints for viscous effects in the hydrodynamic modeling of the expanding quark–gluon plasma produced in heavy-ion collisions at the LHC