Influenza Pandemic Periodicity, Virus Recycling, and the Art of Risk Assessment

Conditions that lead to influenza pandemics are not fully understood

The decline of science in corporate R&D

Research summary: In this article, we document a shift away from science by large corporations between 1980 and 2006. We find that publications by company scientists have declined over time in a range of industries. We also find that the value attributable to scientific research has dropped, whereas the value attributable to technical knowledge (as measured by patents) has remained stable. These trends are unlikely to be driven principally by changes in publication practices. Furthermore, science continues to be useful as an input into innovation. Our evidence points to a reduction of the private benefits of internal research. Large firms still value the golden eggs of science (as reflected in patents), but seem to be increasingly unwilling to invest in the golden goose itself (the internal scientific capabilities). Managerial summary: There is a widespread belief among commentators that large American corporations are withdrawing from research. Large corporations may still collaborate with universities and acquire promising science-based start-ups, but their labs increasingly focus on developing existing knowledge and commercializing it, rather than creating new knowledge. In this article, we combine firm-level financial information with a large and comprehensive data set on firm publications, patents and acquisitions to quantify the withdrawal from science by large American corporations between 1980 and 2006. This withdrawal is associated with a decline in the private value of research activities, even though scientific knowledge itself remains important for corporate invention. We discuss the managerial and policy implications of our findings

To be financed or not : the role of patents for venture capital financing

This paper investigates how patent applications and grants held by new ventures improve their ability to attract venture capital (VC) financing. We argue that investors are faced with considerable uncertainty and therefore rely on patents as signals when trying to assess the prospects of potential portfolio companies. For a sample of VC-seeking German and British biotechnology companies we have identified all patents filed at the European Patent Office (EPO). Applying hazard rate analysis, we find that in the presence of patent applications, VC financing occurs earlier. Our results also show that VCs pay attention to patent quality, financing those ventures faster which later turn out to have high-quality patents. Patent oppositions increase the likelihood of receiving VC, but ultimate grant decisions do not spur VC financing, presumably because they are anticipated. Our empirical results and interviews with VCs suggest that the process of patenting generates signals which help to overcome the liabilities of newness faced by new ventures

Disruptive viability selection on a black plumage trait associated with dominance.

Traits used in communication, such as colour signals, are expected to have positive consequences for reproductive success, but their associations with survival are little understood. Previous studies have mainly investigated linear relationships between signals and survival, but both hump-shaped and U-shaped relationships can also be predicted, depending on the main costs involved in trait expression. Furthermore, few studies have taken the plasticity of signals into account in viability selection analyses. The relationship between signal expression and survival is of particular interest in melanin-based traits, because their main costs are still debated. Here, we first determined the main factors explaining variability in a melanin-based trait linked to dominance: the bib size of a colonial bird, the sociable weaver Philetairus socius. We then used these analyses to obtain a measure representative of the individual mean expression of bib size. Finally, we used capture-recapture models to study how survival varied in relation to bib size. Variation in bib size was strongly affected by year and moderately affected by age, body condition and colony size. In addition, individuals bearing small and large bibs had higher survival than those with intermediate bibs, and this U-shaped relationship between survival and bib size appeared to be more pronounced in some years than others. These results constitute a rare example of disruptive viability selection, and point towards the potential importance of social costs incurred by the dominance signalling function of badges of status.Our research was funded by the DST-NRF Centre of Excellence at the Percy FitzPatrick Institute (University of Cape Town), the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT, PTDC/BIA-BEC/103818/2008) to RC, the region Languedoc Roussillon, the programme "Chercheur(se)s d’avenir" 2013 and ANR JC 09-JCJC-0050-01JCJC to CD, the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC, UK: NE/G018588/1 and NE/K015257/1) to BJH, and the University of Cape Town and St John’s College, Cambridge (UK) to CNS. This research was also supported by a Marie Curie-IRSES grant (FP7-PEOPLE-2012-IRSES; ‘Cooperation’ 318994) to all and was conducted within the CNRS-CIBIO International Associate Laboratory (LIA) ‘Biodiversity and Evolution’. RC was funded by a ‘Ciência 2008’ fellowship (FCT, Portugal) with further support from FEDER (Operational Programme for Competitiveness Factors – COMPETE, Project “Biodiversity, Ecology and Global Change” co-financed by North Portugal Regional Operational Programme 2007/2013 (ON.2), under the NSRF, ERDF.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Wiley via http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jeb.1271

How absolute is zero? An evaluation of historical and current definitions of malaria elimination

Decisions to eliminate malaria from all or part of a country involve a complex set of factors, and this complexity is compounded by ambiguity surrounding some of the key terminology, most notably "control" and "elimination." It is impossible to forecast resource and operational requirements accurately if endpoints have not been defined clearly, yet even during the Global Malaria Eradication Program, debate raged over the precise definition of "eradication." Analogous deliberations regarding the meaning of "elimination" and "control" are basically nonexistent today despite these terms' core importance to programme planning. To advance the contemporary debate about these issues, this paper presents a historical review of commonly used terms, including control, elimination, and eradication, to help contextualize current understanding of these concepts. The review has been supported by analysis of the underlying mathematical concepts on which these definitions are based through simple branching process models that describe the proliferation of malaria cases following importation. Through this analysis, the importance of pragmatic definitions that are useful for providing malaria control and elimination programmes with a practical set of strategic milestones is emphasized, and it is argued that current conceptions of elimination in particular fail to achieve these requirements. To provide all countries with precise targets, new conceptual definitions are suggested to more precisely describe the old goals of "control" - here more exactly named "controlled low-endemic malaria" - and "elimination." Additionally, it is argued that a third state, called "controlled non-endemic malaria," is required to describe the epidemiological condition in which endemic transmission has been interrupted, but malaria resulting from onwards transmission from imported infections continues to occur at a sufficiently high level that elimination has not been achieved. Finally, guidelines are discussed for deriving the separate operational definitions and metrics that will be required to make these concepts relevant, measurable, and achievable for a particular environment