Engines of Growth: Domestic and Foreign Sources of Innovation

We examine productivity growth since World War II in the five leading research economies: West Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Japan, and the United States. Available data on the capital-output ratio suggest that these countries grew as they did because of their ability to adopt more productive technologies, not because of capital deepening per se. We present a multicountry model of technological innovation and diffusion which has the implication that, for a wide range of parameter values, countries converge to a common growth rate, with relative productivities depending on the speed with which countries adopt technologies developed at home and abroad. Using parameter values that fit a cross section of data on productivity, research, and patenting, we simulate the growth of the five countries, given initial productivity levels in 1950 and research efforts in the subsequent four decades. Based on plausible assumptions about 'technology gaps' that existed among these countries in 1950 we can explain their growth experiences quite successfully. Specifically, the simulations capture the magnitude of the slowdown in German, French, and Japanese productivity growth and the relative constancy of U.K. and U.S. growth.

Innovation, Diffusion, and Trade

We explore the determinants of research specialization across countries and its consequences for relative wages. Using a dynamic Ricardian model we examine the effects of faster international technology diffusion and lower trade barriers on the incentive to innovate. In the absence of any diffusion at all, countries devote the same share of resources toward research regardless of trade barriers or research productivity. As long as trade barriers are not too high, faster diffusion shifts research activity toward the country that does it better. This shift in research activity raises the relative wage there. It can even mean that, with more diffusion, the country better at research ends up with a larger share of technologies in its exclusive domain.

Moore's Law and the Semiconductor Industry: A Vintage Model

Semiconductors, High Technology Industries,

Innovating firms and aggregate innovation

We develop a parsimonious model of innovating firms rich enough to confront firm-level evidence. It captures the dynamic behavior of individual heterogeneous firms, describes the evolution of an industry with simultaneous entry and exit, and delivers a general equilibrium model of technological change. While unifying the theoretical analysis of firms, industries, and the aggregate economy, the model yields insights into empirical work on innovating firms. It accounts for the persistence over time of firms’ R&D investment, the concentration of R&D among incumbent firms, and the link between R&D and patenting. Furthermore, it explains why R&D as a fraction of revenues is strongly related to firm productivity yet largely unrelated to firm size or growth.Research and development ; Productivity

Does Venture Capital Spur Innovation?

While policymakers often assume venture capital has a profound impact on innovation, that premise has not been evaluated systematically. We address this omission by examining the influence of venture capital on patented inventions in the United States across twenty industries over three decades. We address concerns about causality in several ways, including exploiting a 1979 policy shift that spurred venture capital fundraising. We find that the amount of venture capital activity in an industry significantly increases its rate of patenting. While the ratio of venture capital to R&D has averaged less than 3% in recent years, our estimates suggest that venture capital accounts for about 15% of industrial innovations. We address concerns that these results are an artifact of our use of patent counts by demonstrating similar patterns when other measures of innovation are used in a sample of 530 venture-backed and non-venture-backed firms.

International Patenting and Technology Diffusion

We model the invention of new technologies and their diffusion across countries. Our model predicts that, eventually, all countries will grow at the same rate, with each country's productivity ranking determined by how rapidly it adopts inventions. The common growth rate depends on research efforts in all countries, while research effort is determined by how much inventions earn at home and abroad. Patents affect the return to invention. We relate the decision to patent an invention internationally to the cost of patenting in a country and to the expected value of patent protection in that country. We can thus infer the direction and magnitude of the international diffusion of technology from data on international patenting, productivity, and research. We fit the model to data from the five leading research economies. The parameters indicate how much technology flows between these countries and how much each country earns from its inventions domestically and elsewhere. Our results imply that foreign countries are important sources of technology even though countries earn most of their return to innovation at home. For example, about half of U.S. productivity growth derives from foreign technology yet U.S. investors earn 98 per cent of the revenue from their inventions domestically.

Trade in Capital Goods

Innovative activity is highly concentrated in a handful of advanced countries. These same countries are also the major exporters of capital goods to the rest of the world. We develop a model of trade in capital goods to assess its role spreading the benefits of technological advances. Applying the model to data on production and bilateral trade in capital equipment, we estimate the barriers to trade in equipment. These estimates imply substantial differences in equipment prices across countries. We attribute about 25 percent of cross-country productivity differences to variation in the relative price of equipment, about half of which we ascribe to barriers to trade in equipment.

Innovation, Trade, and Growth

We consider the interaction of trade and technology diffusion in a two-region model of innovation and imitation. We find that globalization, either in the form of lower trade barriers or in faster diffusion of technology between innovator and imitator spurs innovation, benefiting both regions.

Trade in Ideas: Patenting and Productivity in the OECD

We develop and estimate a model of technological innovation and its contribution to growth at home and abroad. International patents indicate where innovations come from and where they are used. Countries grow at a common steady-state rate. A country's relative productivity depends upon its capacity to absorb technology. We estimate that, except for the United States, OECD countries derive almost all of their productivity growth from abroad.