Survival Rates Indicate that Correlations Between Community-Weighted Mean Traits and Environments can be Unreliable Estimates of the Adaptive Value of Traits

Correlations between community-weighted mean (CWM) traits and environmental gradients are often assumed to quantify the adaptive value of traits. We tested this assumption by comparing these correlations with models of survival probability using 46 perennial species from long-term permanent plots in pine forests of Arizona. Survival was modeled as a function of trait-by-environment interactions, plant size, climatic variation, and neighborhood competition. The effect of traits on survival depended on the environmental conditions, but the two statistical approaches were inconsistent. For example, CWM specific leaf area (SLA) and soil fertility were uncorrelated. However, survival was highest for species with low SLA in infertile soil, a result which agreed with expectations derived from the physiological tradeoff underpinning leaf economic theory. CWM trait-environment relationships were unreliable estimates of how traits affected survival, and should only be used in predictive models when there is empirical support for an evolutionary tradeoff that affects vital rates

Multi-model simulations of the impact of international shipping on Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate in 2000 and 2030

The global impact of shipping on atmospheric chemistry and radiative forcing, as well as the associated uncertainties, have been quantified using an ensemble of ten state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models and a predefined set of emission data. The analysis is performed for present-day conditions ( year 2000) and for two future ship emission scenarios. In one scenario ship emissions stabilize at 2000 levels; in the other ship emissions increase with a constant annual growth rate of 2.2% up to 2030 ( termed the "Constant Growth Scenario" (CGS)). Most other anthropogenic emissions follow the IPCC ( Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) SRES ( Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A2 scenario, while biomass burning and natural emissions remain at year 2000 levels. An intercomparison of the model results with observations over the Northern Hemisphere (25 degrees - 60 degrees N) oceanic regions in the lower troposphere showed that the models are capable to reproduce ozone (O-3) and nitrogen oxides (NOx= NO+ NO2) reasonably well, whereas sulphur dioxide (SO2) in the marine boundary layer is significantly underestimated. The most pronounced changes in annual mean tropospheric NO2 and sulphate columns are simulated over the Baltic and North Seas. Other significant changes occur over the North Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico and along the main shipping lane from Europe to Asia, across the Red and Arabian Seas. Maximum contributions from shipping to annual mean near-surface O-3 are found over the North Atlantic ( 5 - 6 ppbv in 2000; up to 8 ppbv in 2030). Ship contributions to tropospheric O3 columns over the North Atlantic and Indian Oceans reach 1 DU in 2000 and up to 1.8 DU in 2030. Tropospheric O-3 forcings due to shipping are 9.8 +/- 2.0 mW/m(2) in 2000 and 13.6 +/- 2.3 mW/m(2) in 2030. Whilst increasing O-3, ship NOx simultaneously enhances hydroxyl radicals over the remote ocean, reducing the global methane lifetime by 0.13 yr in 2000, and by up to 0.17 yr in 2030, introducing a negative radiative forcing. The models show future increases in NOx and O-3 burden which scale almost linearly with increases in NOx emission totals. Increasing emissions from shipping would significantly counteract the benefits derived from reducing SO2 emissions from all other anthropogenic sources under the A2 scenario over the continents, for example in Europe. Globally, shipping contributes 3% to increases in O-3 burden between 2000 and 2030, and 4.5% to increases in sulphate under A2/CGS. However, if future ground based emissions follow a more stringent scenario, the relative importance of ship emissions will increase. Inter-model differences in the simulated O-3 contributions from ships are significantly smaller than estimated uncertainties stemming from the ship emission inventory, mainly the ship emission totals, the distribution of the emissions over the globe, and the neglect of ship plume dispersion

Choosing Meteorological Input for the Global Modeling Initiative Assessment of High Speed Aircraft

The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) science team is developing a three dimensional chemistry and transport model (CTM) to be used in assessment of the atmospheric effects of aviation. Requirements are that this model be documented, be validated against observations, use a realistic atmospheric circulation, and contain numerical transport and photochemical modules representing atmospheric processes. The model must also retain computational efficiency to be tractable to use for multiple scenarios and sensitivity studies. To meet these requirements, a facility model concept was developed in which the different components of the CTM are evaluated separately. The first use of the GMI model will be to evaluate the impact of the exhaust of supersonic aircraft on the stratosphere. The assessment calculations will depend strongly on the wind and temperature fields used by the CTM. Three meteorological data sets for the stratosphere are available to GMI: the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM2), the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS), and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GISS). Objective criteria were established by the GMI team to identify the data set which provides the best representation of the stratosphere. Simulations of gases with simple chemical control were chosen to test various aspects of model transport. The three meteorological data sets were evaluated and graded based on their ability to simulate these aspects of stratospheric measurements. This paper describes the criteria used in grading the meteorological fields. The meteorological data set which has the highest score and therefore was selected for GMI is CCM2. This type of objective model evaluation establishes a physical basis for interpretation of differences between models and observations. Further, the method provides a quantitative basis for defining model errors, for discriminating between different models, and for ready re-evaluation of improved models. These in turn will lead to a higher level of confidence in assessment calculations

Preanalytical processing of archaeological mammal enamel apatite carbonates for stable isotope investigations: a comparative analysis of the effect of acid treatment on samples from Northwest Australia

Stable isotopic analysis of palaeontological and archaeological biogenic apatite carbonates from herbivorous mammalian species represents an important tool for worldwide palaeoecological research. Tooth enamel carbonates are more resistant to taphonomic processes than bone or dentine carbonates but are not invulnerable to diagenesis. As such, they require careful preanalytical processing that considers depositional environment and age. An established part of this process includes a weak acid treatment to remove soluble exogenous carbonates; however, published treatment times for isotopic studies of archaeological tooth enamel are variable and range from 15\ua0min to over 8\ua0hr. This study tests three different pretreatment protocols on modern and Pleistocene age archaeological kangaroo teeth (dating from contemporary to 46,000 bp) to assess the effect of acid treatment time on isotopic integrity. The results indicate that treatment time is a critical parameter for producing consistency across results and shorter pretreatments of 4\ua0hr or less are preferable for removing diagenetic carbonates while minimising alteration of the biological signal

Interstellar OH+, H2O+ and H3O+ along the sight-line to G10.6-0.4

We report the detection of absorption lines by the reactive ions OH+, H2O+ and H3O+ along the line of sight to the submillimeter continuum source G10.6$-$0.4 (W31C). We used the Herschel HIFI instrument in dual beam switch mode to observe the ground state rotational transitions of OH+ at 971 GHz, H2O+ at 1115 and 607 GHz, and H3O+ at 984 GHz. The resultant spectra show deep absorption over a broad velocity range that originates in the interstellar matter along the line of sight to G10.6$-$0.4 as well as in the molecular gas directly associated with that source. The OH+ spectrum reaches saturation over most velocities corresponding to the foreground gas, while the opacity of the H2O+ lines remains lower than 1 in the same velocity range, and the H3O+ line shows only weak absorption. For LSR velocities between 7 and 50 kms$^{-1}$ we estimate total column densities of $N$(OH+) $> 2.5 \times 10^{14}$ cm$^{-2}$, $N$(H2O+) $\sim 6 \times 10^{13}$ cm$^{-2}$ and $N$(H3O+) $\sim 4.0 \times 10^{13}$ cm$^{-2}$. These detections confirm the role of O$^+$ and OH$^+$ in initiating the oxygen chemistry in diffuse molecular gas and strengthen our understanding of the gas phase production of water. The high ratio of the OH+ by the H2O+ column density implies that these species predominantly trace low-density gas with a small fraction of hydrogen in molecular form

Herschel/HIFI observations of interstellar OH+ and H2O+ towards W49N: a probe of diffuse clouds with a small molecular fraction

We report the detection of absorption by interstellar hydroxyl cations and water cations, along the sight-line to the bright continuum source W49N. We have used Herschel's HIFI instrument, in dual beam switch mode, to observe the 972 GHz N = 1 - 0 transition of OH+ and the 1115 GHz 1(11) - 0(00) transition of ortho-H2O+. The resultant spectra show absorption by ortho-H2O+, and strong absorption by OH+, in foreground material at velocities in the range 0 to 70 km/s with respect to the local standard of rest. The inferred OH+/H2O+ abundance ratio ranges from ~ 3 to ~ 15, implying that the observed OH+ arises in clouds of small molecular fraction, in the 2 - 8% range. This conclusion is confirmed by the distribution of OH+ and H2O+ in Doppler velocity space, which is similar to that of atomic hydrogen, as observed by means of 21 cm absorption measurements, and dissimilar from that typical of other molecular tracers. The observed OH+/H abundance ratio of a few E-8 suggests a cosmic ray ionization rate for atomic hydrogen of (0.6 - 2.4) E-16 s-1, in good agreement with estimates inferred previously for diffuse clouds in the Galactic disk from observations of interstellar H3+ and other species.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A Letter

Detection of interstellar oxidaniumyl: abundant H2O+ towards the star-forming regions DR21, Sgr B2, and NGC6334

We identify a prominent absorption feature at 1115 GHz, detected in first HIFI spectra towards high-mass star-forming regions, and interpret its astrophysical origin. The characteristic hyperfine pattern of the H2O+ ground-state rotational transition, and the lack of other known low-energy transitions in this frequency range, identifies the feature as H2O+ absorption against the dust continuum background and allows us to derive the velocity profile of the absorbing gas. By comparing this velocity profile with velocity profiles of other tracers in the DR21 star-forming region, we constrain the frequency of the transition and the conditions for its formation. In DR21, the velocity distribution of H2O+ matches that of the [CII] line at 158\mu\m and of OH cm-wave absorption, both stemming from the hot and dense clump surfaces facing the HII-region and dynamically affected by the blister outflow. Diffuse foreground gas dominates the absorption towards Sgr B2. The integrated intensity of the absorption line allows us to derive lower limits to the H2O+ column density of 7.2e12 cm^-2 in NGC 6334, 2.3e13 cm^-2 in DR21, and 1.1e15 cm^-2 in Sgr B2.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&

Assessment and Applications of NASA Ozone Data Products Derived from Aura OMI-MLS Satellite Measurements in Context of the GMI Chemical Transport Model

Measurements from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), both onboard the Aura spacecraft, have been used to produce daily global maps of column and profile ozone since August 2004. Here we compare and evaluate three strategies to obtain daily maps of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone from OMI and MLS measurements: trajectory mapping, direct profile retrieval, and data assimilation. Evaluation is based upon an assessment that includes validation using ozonesondes and comparisons with the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical transport model (CTM). We investigate applications of the three ozone data products from near-decadal and inter-annual timescales to day-to-day case studies. Zonally averaged inter-annual changes in tropospheric ozone from all of the products in any latitude range are of the order 1-2 Dobson Units while changes (increases) over the 8-year Aura record investigated http://eospso.gsfc.nasa.gov/atbd-category/49 vary approximately 2-4 Dobson Units. It is demonstrated that all of the ozone products can measure and monitor exceptional tropospheric ozone events including major forest fire and pollution transport events. Stratospheric ozone during the Aura record has several anomalous inter-annual events including stratospheric warming split events in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics that are well captured using the data assimilation ozone profile product. Data assimilation with continuous daily global coverage and vertical ozone profile information is the best of the three strategies at generating a global tropospheric and stratospheric ozone product for science applications

Howard's War on Terror: A Conceivable, Communicable and Coercive Foreign Policy Discourse

This article explores the relationship between language and political possibility. It is argued that John Howard’s language from 11 September 2001 to mid 2003 helped to enable the ‘War on Terror’ in an Australian context in three principal ways. Firstly, through contingent and contestable constructions of Australia, the world and their relationship, Howard’s language made interventionism conceivable. Secondly, emphasising shared values, mateship and mutual sacrifice in war, Howard embedded his foreign policy discourse in the cultural terrain of ‘mainstream Australia’, specifically framing a foreign policy discourse that was communicable to ‘battlers’ and disillusioned ‘Hansonites’. Thirdly, positioning alternatives as ‘un-Australian’, Howard’s language was particularly coercive, silencing potential oppositional voices