Slowdown of Shirase Glacier, East Antarctica, caused by strengthening alongshore winds

Around large parts of West Antarctica and in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica, increased wind-forced intrusions of modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) onto the continental shelf have been associated with mass loss over the last few decades. Despite considerable seasonal variability, observations in 2018 have also confirmed relatively high basal melt rates of up to 16 m a -1 underneath the Shirase ice tongue in Enderby Land, East Antarctica. These high basal melt rates are also caused by intrusions of mCDW onto the continental shelf, but the catchment of Shirase Glacier has been gaining mass, a trend often attributed to increased precipitation. Here, we document the dynamical ocean-driven slowdown, ice surface thickening and grounding line advance of Shirase Glacier, in response to strengthening easterly winds that reduce mCDW inflow and decrease basal melt rates. Our findings are significant because they demonstrate that warm ice shelf cavity regimes are not universally associated with glacier acceleration and mass loss in Antarctica, and they highlight the overlooked role of the impact of easterly winds in the recent mass gain of the Shirase Glacier catchment

Method evaluation and risk assessment: A framework for evaluating management strategies for data-limited fisheries

Fisheries managers are in need of quantitative tools to inform decisions regarding selection of robust management practices, prioritising research gaps and stocks to focus on, particularly where there are limited resources or data. To support these decisions, the use of Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE), that is, closed loop simulation-testing of management procedures, is widely regarded as best practice. However, applying MSE is time- and computationally intensive, and requires highly skilled expertise and processes for stakeholder input and peer review. For data- and capacity-limited fisheries, MSE may be particularly challenging to implement. Yet, these are the contexts where it is most critical to test assumptions, evaluate the implications of all sources of uncertainty and identify the most informative data sources. To facilitate wider use of MSE, the Method Evaluation and Risk Assessment (MERA) framework was developed as an accessible online interface, with quick processing time, focused on generic data-limited management procedures, but allowing progression to tailored and more data-rich methods. The framework links a quantitative questionnaire and data input standard to a flexible operating model with optional customisation via command line access to the back-end open-source R libraries. Here, we illustrate a case study application of MERA for the bocinegro (Pagrus pagrus, Sparidae) fishery in the Gulf of Cadiz, where in conjunction with fishery stakeholders, a custom management procedure was developed and tested and key research gaps and data collection priorities were identified. We discuss implications for wider use of MSE in various contexts, including eco-certification and fishery improvement projects.MERA was initially commissioned by the Marine Stewardship Council, and benefits from the ongoing support of the David & Lucile Packard Foundation, the Marine Stewardship Council, the Natural Resources Defense Council, the Walton Family Foundation and the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization.Peer reviewe

Longitudinal observation and decline of neutralizing antibody responses in the three months following SARS-CoV-2 infection in humans

Antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 can be detected in most infected individuals 10–15 d after the onset of COVID-19 symptoms. However, due to the recent emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in the human population, it is not known how long antibody responses will be maintained or whether they will provide protection from reinfection. Using sequential serum samples collected up to 94 d post onset of symptoms (POS) from 65 individuals with real-time quantitative PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, we show seroconversion (immunoglobulin (Ig)M, IgA, IgG) in >95% of cases and neutralizing antibody responses when sampled beyond 8 d POS. We show that the kinetics of the neutralizing antibody response is typical of an acute viral infection, with declining neutralizing antibody titres observed after an initial peak, and that the magnitude of this peak is dependent on disease severity. Although some individuals with high peak infective dose (ID50 > 10,000) maintained neutralizing antibody titres >1,000 at >60 d POS, some with lower peak ID50 had neutralizing antibody titres approaching baseline within the follow-up period. A similar decline in neutralizing antibody titres was observed in a cohort of 31 seropositive healthcare workers. The present study has important implications when considering widespread serological testing and antibody protection against reinfection with SARS-CoV-2, and may suggest that vaccine boosters are required to provide long-lasting protection

A Stochastic Description of Dictyostelium Chemotaxis

Chemotaxis, the directed motion of a cell toward a chemical source, plays a key role in many essential biological processes. Here, we derive a statistical model that quantitatively describes the chemotactic motion of eukaryotic cells in a chemical gradient. Our model is based on observations of the chemotactic motion of the social ameba Dictyostelium discoideum, a model organism for eukaryotic chemotaxis. A large number of cell trajectories in stationary, linear chemoattractant gradients is measured, using microfluidic tools in combination with automated cell tracking. We describe the directional motion as the interplay between deterministic and stochastic contributions based on a Langevin equation. The functional form of this equation is directly extracted from experimental data by angle-resolved conditional averages. It contains quadratic deterministic damping and multiplicative noise. In the presence of an external gradient, the deterministic part shows a clear angular dependence that takes the form of a force pointing in gradient direction. With increasing gradient steepness, this force passes through a maximum that coincides with maxima in both speed and directionality of the cells. The stochastic part, on the other hand, does not depend on the orientation of the directional cue and remains independent of the gradient magnitude. Numerical simulations of our probabilistic model yield quantitative agreement with the experimental distribution functions. Thus our model captures well the dynamics of chemotactic cells and can serve to quantify differences and similarities of different chemotactic eukaryotes. Finally, on the basis of our model, we can characterize the heterogeneity within a population of chemotactic cells

Adolescent transport and unintentional injuries: a systematic analysis using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Globally, transport and unintentional injuries persist as leading preventable causes of mortality and morbidity for adolescents. We sought to report comprehensive trends in injury-related mortality and morbidity for adolescents aged 10–24 years during the past three decades. Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2019 Study, we analysed mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributed to transport and unintentional injuries for adolescents in 204 countries. Burden is reported in absolute numbers and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population by sex, age group (10–14, 15–19, and 20–24 years), and sociodemographic index (SDI) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We report percentage changes in deaths and DALYs between 1990 and 2019. Findings: In 2019, 369 061 deaths (of which 214 337 [58%] were transport related) and 31·1 million DALYs (of which 16·2 million [52%] were transport related) among adolescents aged 10–24 years were caused by transport and unintentional injuries combined. If compared with other causes, transport and unintentional injuries combined accounted for 25% of deaths and 14% of DALYs in 2019, and showed little improvement from 1990 when such injuries accounted for 26% of adolescent deaths and 17% of adolescent DALYs. Throughout adolescence, transport and unintentional injury fatality rates increased by age group. The unintentional injury burden was higher among males than females for all injury types, except for injuries related to fire, heat, and hot substances, or to adverse effects of medical treatment. From 1990 to 2019, global mortality rates declined by 34·4% (from 17·5 to 11·5 per 100 000) for transport injuries, and by 47·7% (from 15·9 to 8·3 per 100 000) for unintentional injuries. However, in low-SDI nations the absolute number of deaths increased (by 80·5% to 42 774 for transport injuries and by 39·4% to 31 961 for unintentional injuries). In the high-SDI quintile in 2010–19, the rate per 100 000 of transport injury DALYs was reduced by 16·7%, from 838 in 2010 to 699 in 2019. This was a substantially slower pace of reduction compared with the 48·5% reduction between 1990 and 2010, from 1626 per 100 000 in 1990 to 838 per 100 000 in 2010. Between 2010 and 2019, the rate of unintentional injury DALYs per 100 000 also remained largely unchanged in high-SDI countries (555 in 2010 vs 554 in 2019; 0·2% reduction). The number and rate of adolescent deaths and DALYs owing to environmental heat and cold exposure increased for the high-SDI quintile during 2010–19. Interpretation: As other causes of mortality are addressed, inadequate progress in reducing transport and unintentional injury mortality as a proportion of adolescent deaths becomes apparent. The relative shift in the burden of injury from high-SDI countries to low and low–middle-SDI countries necessitates focused action, including global donor, government, and industry investment in injury prevention. The persisting burden of DALYs related to transport and unintentional injuries indicates a need to prioritise innovative measures for the primary prevention of adolescent injury. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation