Decision-Making in Agent-Based Modeling: A Current Review and Future Prospectus

All basic processes of ecological populations involve decisions; when and where to move, when and what to eat, and whether to fight or flee. Yet decisions and the underlying principles of decision-making have been difficult to integrate into the classical population-level models of ecology. Certainly, there is a long history of modeling individuals' searching behavior, diet selection, or conflict dynamics within social interactions. When all the individuals are given certain simple rules to govern their decision-making processes, the resultant population–level models have yielded important generalizations and theory. But it is also recognized that such models do not represent the way real individuals decide on actions. Factors that influence a decision include the organism's environment with its dynamic rewards and risks, the complex internal state of the organism, and its imperfect knowledge of the environment. In the case of animals, it may also involve complex social factors, and experience and learning, which vary among individuals. The way that all factors are weighed and processed to lead to decisions is a major area of behavioral theory.While classic population-level modeling is limited in its ability to integrate decision-making in its actual complexity, the development of individual- or agent-based models (IBM/ABMs) (we use ABM throughout to designate both “agent-based modeling” and an “agent-based model”) has opened the possibility of describing the way that decisions are made, and their effects, in minute detail. Over the years, these models have increased in size and complexity. Current ABMs can simulate thousands of individuals in realistic environments, and with highly detailed internal physiology, perception and ability to process the perceptions and make decisions based on those and their internal states. The implementation of decision-making in ABMs ranges from fairly simple to highly complex; the process of an individual deciding on an action can occur through the use of logical and simple (if-then) rules to more sophisticated neural networks and genetic algorithms. The purpose of this paper is to give an overview of the ways in which decisions are integrated into a variety of ABMs and to give a prospectus on the future of modeling of decisions in ABMs

Neuromuscular Junction Defects in Mice with Mutation of dynein heavy chain 1

Disruptions in axonal transport have been implicated in a wide range of neurodegenerative diseases. Cramping 1 (Cra1/+) and Legs at odd angles (Loa/+) mice, with hypomorphic mutations in the dynein heavy chain 1 gene, which encodes the ATPase of the retrograde motor protein dynein, were originally reported to exhibit late onset motor neuron disease. Subsequent, conflicting reports suggested that sensory neuron disease without motor neuron loss underlies the phenotypes of Cra1/+ and Loa/+ mice. Here, we present behavioral and anatomical analyses of Cra1/+ mice. We demonstrate that Cra1/+ mice exhibit early onset, stable behavioral deficits, including abnormal hindlimb posturing and decreased grip strength. These deficits do not progress through 24 months of age. No significant loss of primary motor neurons or dorsal root ganglia sensory neurons was observed at ages where the mice exhibited clear symptomatology. Instead, there is a decrease in complexity of neuromuscular junctions. These results indicate that disruption of dynein function in Cra1/+ mice results in abnormal morphology of neuromuscular junctions. The time course of behavioral deficits, as well as the nature of the morphological defects in neuromuscular junctions, suggests that disruption of dynein function in Cra1/+ mice causes a developmental defect in synapse assembly or stabilization

DNA methylation on N6-adenine in mammalian embryonic stem cells

It has been widely accepted that 5-methylcytosine is the only form of DNA methylation in mammalian genomes. Here we identify N6-methyladenine as another form of DNA modification in mouse embryonic stem cells. Alkbh1 encodes a demethylase for N6-methyladenine. An increase of N6-methyladenine levels in Alkbh1-deficient cells leads to transcriptional silencing. N6-methyladenine deposition is inversely correlated with the evolutionary age of LINE-1 transposons; its deposition is strongly enriched at young (6 million years old) L1 elements. The deposition of N6-methyladenine correlates with epigenetic silencing of such LINE-1 transposons, together with their neighbouring enhancers and genes, thereby resisting the gene activation signals during embryonic stem cell differentiation. As young full-length LINE-1 transposons are strongly enriched on the X chromosome, genes located on the X chromosome are also silenced. Thus, N6-methyladenine developed a new role in epigenetic silencing in mammalian evolution distinct from its role in gene activation in other organisms. Our results demonstrate that N6-methyladenine constitutes a crucial component of the epigenetic regulation repertoire in mammalian genomes

Buying Years to Extinction: Is Compensatory Mitigation for Marine Bycatch a Sufficient Conservation Measure for Long-Lived Seabirds?

Along the lines of the ‘polluter pays principle’, it has recently been proposed that the local long-line fishing industry should fund eradication of terrestrial predators at seabird breeding colonies, as a compensatory measure for the bycatch caused by the fishing activity. The measure is economically sound, but a quantitative and reliable test of its biological efficacy has never been conducted. Here, we investigated the demographic consequences of predator eradication for Cory's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, breeding in the Mediterranean, using a population model that integrates demographic rates estimated from individual life-history information with experimental measures of predation and habitat structure. We found that similar values of population growth rate can be obtained by different combinations of habitat characteristics, predator abundance and adult mortality, which explains the persistence of shearwater colonies in islands with introduced predators. Even so, given the empirically obtained values of survival, all combinations of predator abundance and habitat characteristics projected a decline in shearwater numbers. Perturbation analyses indicated that the value and the sensitivity of shearwater population growth rates were affected by all covariates considered and their interactions. A decrease in rat abundance delivered only a small increase in the population growth rate, whereas a change in adult survival (a parameter independent of rat abundance) had the strongest impact on population dynamics. When adult survival is low, rat eradication would allow us to “buy” years before extinction but does not reverse the process. Rat eradication can therefore be seen as an emergency measure if threats on adult survival are eliminated in the medium-term period. For species with low fecundity and long life expectancy, our results suggest that rat control campaigns are not a sufficient, self-standing measure to compensate the biological toll of long-line fisheries

Zebrafish Ciliopathy Screen Plus Human Mutational Analysis Identifies C21orf59 and CCDC65 Defects as Causing Primary Ciliary Dyskinesia

Primary ciliary dyskinesia (PCD) is caused when defects of motile cilia lead to chronic airway infections, male infertility, and situs abnormalities. Multiple causative PCD mutations account for only 65% of cases, suggesting that many genes essential for cilia function remain to be discovered. By using zebrafish morpholino knockdown of PCD candidate genes as an in vivo screening platform, we identified c21orf59, ccdc65, and c15orf26 as critical for cilia motility. c21orf59 and c15orf26 knockdown in zebrafish and planaria blocked outer dynein arm assembly, and ccdc65 knockdown altered cilia beat pattern. Biochemical analysis in Chlamydomonas revealed that the C21orf59 ortholog FBB18 is a flagellar matrix protein that accumulates specifically when cilia motility is impaired. The Chlamydomonas ida6 mutant identifies CCDC65/FAP250 as an essential component of the nexin-dynein regulatory complex. Analysis of 295 individuals with PCD identified recessive truncating mutations of C21orf59 in four families and CCDC65 in two families. Similar to findings in zebrafish and planaria, mutations in C21orf59 caused loss of both outer and inner dynein arm components. Our results characterize two genes associated with PCD-causing mutations and elucidate two distinct mechanisms critical for motile cilia function: dynein arm assembly for C21orf59 and assembly of the nexin-dynein regulatory complex for CCDC65

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Altered Thymic Function during Interferon Therapy in HCV-Infected Patients

Interferon alpha (IFNα) therapy, despite good efficacy in curing HCV infection, leads to major side effects, in particular inducement of a strong peripheral T-cell lymphocytopenia. We here analyze the early consequences of IFNα therapy on both thymic function and peripheral T-cell homeostasis in patients in the acute or chronic phase of HCV-infection as well as in HIV/HCV co-infected patients. The evolution of T-cell subsets and T-cell homeostasis were estimated by flow cytometry while thymic function was measured through quantification of T-cell receptor excision circles (TREC) and estimation of intrathymic precursor T-cell proliferation during the first four months following the initiation of IFNα therapy. Beginning with the first month of therapy, a profound lymphocytopenia was observed for all T-cell subsets, including naïve T-cells and recent thymic emigrants (RTE), associated with inhibition of intrathymic precursor T-cell proliferation. Interleukin (IL)-7 plasma concentration rapidly dropped while lymphocytopenia progressed. This was neither a consequence of higher consumption of the cytokine nor due to its neutralization by soluble CD127. Decrease in IL-7 plasma concentration under IFNα therapy correlated with the decline in HCV viral load, thymic activity and RTE concentration in blood. These data demonstrate that IFNα-based therapy rapidly impacts on thymopoiesis and, consequently, perturbs T-cell homeostasis. Such a side effect might be detrimental for the continuation of IFNα therapy and may lead to an increased level of infectious risk, in particular in HIV/HCV co-infected patients. Altogether, this study suggests the therapeutic potential of IL-7 in the maintenance of peripheral T-cell homeostasis in IFNα-treated patients

Emerging IT risks: insights from German banking

How do German banks manage the emerging risks stemming from IT innovations such as cyber risk? With a focus on process, roles and responsibilities, field data from ten banks participating in the 2014 ECB stress test were collected by interviewing IT managers, risk managers and external experts. Current procedures for handling emerging risks in German banks were identified from the interviews and analysed, guided by the extant literature. A clear gap was found between enterprise risk management (ERM) as a general approach to risks threatening firms’ objectives and ERM’s neglect of emerging risks, such as those associated with IT innovations. The findings suggest that ERM should be extended towards the collection and sharing of knowledge to allow for an initial understanding and description of emerging risks, as opposed to the traditional ERM approach involving estimates of impact and probability. For example, as cyber risks emerge from an IT innovation, the focus may need to switch towards reducing uncertainty through knowledge acquisition. Since individual managers seldom possess all relevant knowledge of an IT innovation, various stakeholders may need to be involved to exploit their expertise

Undertaking Rehabilitation Research During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Emergent Strategies From a Trainee-Faculty Workshop

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted everyday rehabilitation research. Many academic institutions have halted in-person human research including rehabilitation sciences. Researchers are faced with several barriers to continuing their research programs. The purpose of this perspective article is to report the results of an interdisciplinary workshop aimed at understanding the challenges and corresponding strategies for conducting rehabilitation research during the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsTwenty-five rehabilitation researchers (17 trainees and eight faculty) attended a 2-h facilitated online workshop in to discuss challenges and strategies they had experienced and employed to conduct rehabilitation research during the COVID-19 pandemic.ResultsRehabilitation researchers reported challenges with (1) pandemic protocol adjustments, (2) participant accessibility, and (3) knowledge dissemination, along with corresponding strategies to these challenges. Researchers experienced disruptions in study outcomes and intervention protocols to adhere to public health guidelines and have suggested implementing novel virtual approaches and study toolkits to facilitate offsite assessment. Participant accessibility could be improved by engaging community stakeholders in protocol revisions to ensure equity, safety, and feasibility. Researchers also experienced barriers to virtual conferences and publication, suggested opportunities for smaller networking events, and revisiting timeframes for knowledge dissemination.ConclusionThis perspective article served as a catalyst for discussion among rehabilitation researchers to identify novel and creative approaches that address the complexities of conducting rehabilitation research during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond