The detection of M-dwarf UV flare events in the GALEX data archives

We present the preliminary results from implementing a new software tool that enables inspection of time-tagged photon data for the astronomical sources contained within individual GALEX ultraviolet images of the sky. We have inspected the photon data contained within 1802 GALEX images to reveal rapid, short-term (<500 sec) UV source variability in the form of stellar flares. The mean associated change in NUV magnitude due to this flaring activity is 2.7+/-0.3 mag. A list of 49 new UV variable-star candidates is presented, together with their associated Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) photometric magnitudes. From these data we can associate the main source of these UV flare events with magnetic activity on M-dwarf stars. Photometric parallaxes have been determined for 32 of these sources, placing them at distances ranging from approximately 25 to 1000pc. The average UV flare energy for these flare events is 2.5E30 ergs, which is of a similar energy to that of U-band, X-ray and EUV flares observed on many local M-dwarf stars. We have found that stars of classes M0 to M5 flare with energies spanning a far larger range and with an energy approximately 5 times greater than those of later (M6 to M8) spectral type.Comment: Accepted for the Astrophysical Journal Supplement, GALEX Special Issu

A meta-analysis of the investment-uncertainty relationship

In this article we use meta-analysis to investigate the investment-uncertainty relationship. We focus on the direction and statistical significance of empirical estimates. Specifically, we estimate an ordered probit model and transform the estimated coefficients into marginal effects to reflect the changes in the probability of finding a significantly negative estimate, an insignificant estimate, or a significantly positive estimate. Exploratory data analysis shows that there is little empirical evidence for a positive relationship. The regression results suggest that the source of uncertainty, the level of data aggregation, the underlying model specification, and differences between short- and long-run effects are important sources of variation in study outcomes. These findings are, by and large, robust to the introduction of a trend variable to capture publication trends in the literature. The probability of finding a significantly negative relationship is higher in more recently published studies. JEL Classification: D21, D80, E22 1

Assessment of regression-based methods to adjust for publication bias through a comprehensive simulation study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In meta-analysis, the presence of funnel plot asymmetry is attributed to publication or other small-study effects, which causes larger effects to be observed in the smaller studies. This issue potentially mean inappropriate conclusions are drawn from a meta-analysis. If meta-analysis is to be used to inform decision-making, a reliable way to adjust pooled estimates for potential funnel plot asymmetry is required.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A comprehensive simulation study is presented to assess the performance of different adjustment methods including the novel application of several regression-based methods (which are commonly applied to detect publication bias rather than adjust for it) and the popular Trim & Fill algorithm. Meta-analyses with binary outcomes, analysed on the log odds ratio scale, were simulated by considering scenarios with and without i) publication bias and; ii) heterogeneity. Publication bias was induced through two underlying mechanisms assuming the probability of publication depends on i) the study effect size; or ii) the p-value.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The performance of all methods tended to worsen as unexplained heterogeneity increased and the number of studies in the meta-analysis decreased. Applying the methods conditional on an initial test for the presence of funnel plot asymmetry generally provided poorer performance than the unconditional use of the adjustment method. Several of the regression based methods consistently outperformed the Trim & Fill estimators.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Regression-based adjustments for publication bias and other small study effects are easy to conduct and outperformed more established methods over a wide range of simulation scenarios.</p

Jupiter’s auroras during the Juno approach phase as observed by the Hubble Space Telescope

We present movies of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations of Jupiter’s FUV auroras observed during the Juno approach phase and first capture orbit, and compare with Juno observations of the interplanetary medium near Jupiter and inside the magnetosphere. Jupiter’s FUV auroras indicate the nature of the dynamic processes occurring in Jupiter’s magnetosphere, and the approach phase provided a unique opportunity to obtain a full set of interplanetary data near to Jupiter at the time of a program of HST observations, along with the first simultaneous with Juno observations inside the magnetosphere. The overall goal was to determine the nature of the solar wind effect on Jupiter’s magnetosphere. HST observations were obtained with typically 1 orbit per day over three intervals: 16 May – 7 June, 22-30 June and 11-18 July, i.e. while Juno was in the solar wind, around the bow shock and magnetosphere crossings, and in the mid-latitude middle-outer magnetospheres. We show that these intervals are characterised by particularly dynamic polar auroras, and significant variations in the auroral power output caused by e.g. dawn storms, intense main emission and poleward forms. We compare the variation of these features with Juno observations of interplanetary compression regions and the magnetospheric environment during the intervals of these observations

A hierarchical kinetic theory of birth, death, and fission in age-structured interacting populations

We study mathematical models describing the evolution of stochastic age-structured populations. After reviewing existing approaches, we develop a complete kinetic framework for age-structured interacting populations undergoing birth, death and fission processes in spatially dependent environments. We define the full probability density for the population-size age chart and find results under specific conditions. Connections with more classical models are also explicitly derived. In particular, we show that factorial moments for non-interacting processes are described by a natural generalization of the McKendrick-von Foerster equation, which describes mean-field deterministic behavior. Our approach utilizes mixed-type, multidimensional probability distributions similar to those employed in the study of gas kinetics and with terms that satisfy BBGKY-like equation hierarchies

Deletions in VANGL1 are a risk factor for antibody-mediated kidney disease

We identify an intronic deletion in VANGL1 that predisposes to renal injury in high risk populations through a kidney-intrinsic process. Half of all SLE patients develop nephritis, yet the predisposing mechanisms to kidney damage remain poorly understood. There is limited evidence of genetic contribution to specific organ involvement in SLE.(1,2) We identify a large deletion in intron 7 of Van Gogh Like 1 (VANGL1), which associates with nephritis in SLE patients. The same deletion occurs at increased frequency in an indigenous population (Tiwi Islanders) with 10-fold higher rates of kidney disease compared with non-indigenous populations. Vangl1 hemizygosity in mice results in spontaneous IgA and IgG deposition within the glomerular mesangium in the absence of autoimmune nephritis. Serum transfer into B cell-deficient Vangl1(+/-) mice results in mesangial IgG deposition indicating that Ig deposits occur in a kidney-intrinsic fashion in the absence of Vangl1. These results suggest that Vangl1 acts in the kidney to prevent Ig deposits and its deficiency may trigger nephritis in individuals with SLE

The Galex Ultraviolet Variability (GUVV) Catalog

We present Version 1.0 of the NASA Galaxy Evolution Explorer (GALEX) ultraviolet variability catalog (GUVV) that contains information on 84 time-variable and transient sources gained with simultaneous near and far ultraviolet photometric observations. These time-variable sources were serendipitously revealed in the various 1.2 degree star fields currently being surveyed by the GALEX satellite in two ultraviolet bands (NUV 1750-2750A, FUV 1350-1750A) with limiting AB magnitudes of 23-25. The largest-amplitude variable objects presently detected by GALEX are M-dwarf flare stars, which can brighten by 5-10 mag in both the NUV and FUV bands during short duration (< 500s) outbursts. Other types of large-amplitude ultraviolet variable objects include ab-type RR Lyrae stars, which can vary periodically by 2-5mag in the GALEX FUV band. This first GUVV catalog lists galactic positions and possible source identifications in order to provide the astronomical community with a list of time-variable objects that can now be repeatedly observed at other wavelengths. We expect the total number of time-variable source detections to increase as the GALEX mission progresses, such that later version numbers of the GUVV catalog will contain substantially more variable sources

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

Arterial ischemic stroke in HIV:Defining and classifying etiology for research studies

HIV infection, and potentially its treatment, increases the risk of an arterial ischemic stroke. Multiple etiologies and lack of clear case definitions inhibit progress in this field. Several etiologies, many treatable, are relevant to HIV-related stroke. To fully understand the mechanisms and the terminology used, a robust classification algorithm to help ascribe the various etiologies is needed. This consensus paper considers the strengths and limitations of current case definitions in the context of HIV infection. The case definitions for the major etiologies in HIV-related strokes were refined (e.g., varicella zoster vasculopathy and antiphospholipid syndrome) and in some instances new case definitions were described (e.g., HIV-associated vasculopathy). These case definitions provided a framework for an algorithm to help assign a final diagnosis, and help classify the subtypes of HIV etiology in ischemic stroke

Trapping \u3ci\u3ePhyllophaga \u3c/i\u3espp. (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae: Melolonthinae) in the United States and Canada using sex attractants.

The sex pheromone of the scarab beetle, Phyllophaga anxia, is a blend of the methyl esters of two amino acids, L-valine and L-isoleucine. A field trapping study was conducted, deploying different blends of the two compounds at 59 locations in the United States and Canada. More than 57,000 males of 61 Phyllophaga species (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae: Melolonthinae) were captured and identified. Three major findings included: (1) widespread use of the two compounds [of the 147 Phyllophaga (sensu stricto) species found in the United States and Canada, males of nearly 40% were captured]; (2) in most species intraspecific male response to the pheromone blends was stable between years and over geography; and (3) an unusual pheromone polymorphism was described from P. anxia. Populations at some locations were captured with L-valine methyl ester alone, whereas populations at other locations were captured with L-isoleucine methyl ester alone. At additional locations, the L-valine methyl ester-responding populations and the L-isoleucine methyl ester-responding populations were both present, producing a bimodal capture curve. In southeastern Massachusetts and in Rhode Island, in the United States, P. anxia males were captured with blends of L-valine methyl ester and L-isoleucine methyl ester