Toward an improved representation of middle atmospheric dynamics thanks to the ARISE project

This paper reviews recent progress toward understanding the dynamics of the middle atmosphere in the framework of the Atmospheric Dynamics Research InfraStructure in Europe (ARISE) initiative. The middle atmosphere, integrating the stratosphere and mesosphere, is a crucial region which influences tropospheric weather and climate. Enhancing the understanding of middle atmosphere dynamics requires improved measurement of the propagation and breaking of planetary and gravity waves originating in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. Inter-comparison studies have shown large discrepancies between observations and models, especially during unresolved disturbances such as sudden stratospheric warmings for which model accuracy is poorer due to a lack of observational constraints. Correctly predicting the variability of the middle atmosphere can lead to improvements in tropospheric weather forecasts on timescales of weeks to season. The ARISE project integrates different station networks providing observations from ground to the lower thermosphere, including the infrasound system developed for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty verification, the Lidar Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change, complementary meteor radars, wind radiometers, ionospheric sounders and satellites. This paper presents several examples which show how multi-instrument observations can provide a better description of the vertical dynamics structure of the middle atmosphere, especially during large disturbances such as gravity waves activity and stratospheric warming events. The paper then demonstrates the interest of ARISE data in data assimilation for weather forecasting and re-analyzes the determination of dynamics evolution with climate change and the monitoring of atmospheric extreme events which have an atmospheric signature, such as thunderstorms or volcanic eruptions

Global data set of biogenic VOC emissions calculated by the MEGAN model over the last 30 years

The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGANv2.1) together with the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) meteorological fields were used to create a global emission data set of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) available on a monthly basis for the time period of 1980-2010. This data set, developed under the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate project (MACC), is called MEGAN-MACC. The model estimated mean annual total BVOC emission of 760 Tg (C) yrg-1consisting of isoprene (70%), monoterpenes (11%), methanol (6%), acetone (3%), sesquiterpenes (2.5%) and other BVOC species each contributing less than 2%. Several sensitivity model runs were performed to study the impact of different model input and model settings on isoprene estimates and resulted in differences of up to ±17% of the reference isoprene total. A greater impact was observed for a sensitivity run applying parameterization of soil moisture deficit that led to a 50% reduction of isoprene emissions on a global scale, most significantly in specific regions of Africa, South America and Australia. MEGAN-MACC estimates are comparable to results of previous studies. More detailed comparison with other isoprene inventories indicated significant spatial and temporal differences between the data sets especially for Australia, Southeast Asia and South America. MEGAN-MACC estimates of isoprene, α-pinene and group of monoterpenes showed a reasonable agreement with surface flux measurements at sites located in tropical forests in the Amazon and Malaysia. The model was able to capture the seasonal variation of isoprene emissions in the Amazon forest

Global data set of biogenic VOC emissions calculated by the MEGAN model over the last 30 years

The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGANv2.1) together with the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) meteorological fields were used to create a global emission dataset of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) available on a monthly basis for the time period of 1980-2010. This dataset is called MEGAN-MACC. The model estimated mean annual total BVOC emission of 760 Tg (C) yr−1 consisting of isoprene (70%), monoterpenes (11%), methanol (6%), acetone (3%), sesquiterpenes (2.5%) and other BVOC species each contributing less than 2%. Several sensitivity model runs were performed to study the impact of different model input and model settings on isoprene estimates and resulted in differences of up to ±17% of the reference isoprene total. A greater impact was observed for a sensitivity run applying parameterization of soil moisture deficit that led to a 50% reduction of isoprene emissions on a global scale, most significantly in specific regions of Africa, South America and Australia. MEGAN-MACC estimates are comparable to results of previous studies. More detailed comparison with other isoprene inventories indicated significant spatial and temporal differences between the datasets especially for Australia, Southeast Asia and South America. MEGAN-MACC estimates of isoprene, α-pinene and group of monoterpenes showed a reasonable agreement with surface flux measurements at sites located in tropical forests in the Amazon and Malaysia. The model was able to capture the seasonal variation of isoprene emissions in the Amazon forest

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions

www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/14/10725/2014/ doi:10.5194/acpd-14-10725-2014 © Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License

Chemistry and the Linkages between Air Quality and Climate Change

International audienceClimate change and air pollution are critical environmental issues both in the here and now and for the coming decades. A recent OECD report found that unless action is taken, air pollution will be the largest environmental cause of premature death worldwide by 2050. Already, air pollution levels in Asia are far above acceptable levels for human health, and even in Europe, the vast majority of the urban population was exposed to air pollution concentrations exceeding the EU daily limit values, and especially the stricter WHO air quality guidelines in the past decade. The most recent synthesis of climate change research as presented in the fifth IPCC Assessment Report (AR5) states that the warming of the climate system is unequivocal, recognizing the dominant cause as human influence, and providing evidence for a 43% higher total (from 1750 to the present) anthropogenic radiative forcing (RF) than was reported in 2005 from the previous assessment report

EURODELTA-Trends, a multi-model experiment of air quality hindcast in Europe over 1990–2010

International audienceThe EURODELTA-Trends multi-model chemistry-transport experiment has been designed to facilitate a better understanding of the evolution of air pollution and its drivers for the period 1990–2010 in Europe. The main objective of the experiment is to assess the efficiency of air pollutant emissions mitigation measures in improving regional-scale air quality. The present paper formulates the main scientific questions and policy issues being addressed by the EURODELTA-Trends modelling experiment with an emphasis on how the design and technical features of the modelling experiment answer these questions. The experiment is designed in three tiers, with increasing degrees of computational demand in order to facilitate the participation of as many modelling teams as possible. The basic experiment consists of simulations for the years 1990, 2000, and 2010. Sensitivity analysis for the same three years using various combinations of (i) anthropogenic emissions, (ii) chemical boundary conditions, and (iii) meteorology complements it. The most demanding tier consists of two complete time series from 1990 to 2010, simulated using either time-varying emissions for corresponding years or constant emissions.Eight chemistry-transport models have contributed with calculation results to at least one experiment tier, and five models have – to date – completed the full set of simulations (and 21-year trend calculations have been performed by four models). The modelling results are publicly available for further use by the scientific community. The main expected outcomes are (i) an evaluation of the models' performances for the three reference years, (ii) an evaluation of the skill of the models in capturing observed air pollution trends for the 1990–2010 time period, (iii) attribution analyses of the respective role of driving factors (e.g. emissions, boundary conditions, meteorology), (iv) a dataset based on a multi-model approach, to provide more robust model results for use in impact studies related to human health, ecosystem, and radiative forcing

AID protein expression in chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma is associated with poor prognosis and complex genetic alterations

The biological behavior of chronic lymphocytic leukemia and small lymphocytic lymphoma is unpredictable. Nonetheless, non-mutated IgV(H) gene rearrangement, ATM (11q22-23) and p53 (17p13) deletion are recognized as unfavorable prognosticators in chronic lymphocytic leukemia. The mRNA expression of activation-induced cytidine deaminase (AID), an enzyme indispensable for somatic hypermutation processes, was claimed to be predictive of non-mutated chronic lymphocytic leukemia cells in blood. Here, we evaluated AID protein expression compared with known molecular and immunohistochemical prognostic indicators in 71 chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma patients using a tissue microarray approach. We found AID heterogeneously expressed in tumor cells as shown by colocalization analysis for CD5 and CD23. Ki-67 positive paraimmunoblasts of the proliferation centers displayed the highest expression. This observation is reflected by a significant association of AID positivity with a high proliferation rate (P=0.012). ATM deletion was detected in 10% (6/63) of patients and p53 deletion in 19% (13/67) of patients. Moreover, both ATM (P=0.002) and p53 deletion (P=0.004) were significantly associated with AID. IgV(H) gene mutation was seen in 45% (27/60) of patients. Twenty-five percent (17/69) of patients with AID-positive chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma displayed a shorter survival than AID-negative chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma patients (61 vs 130 months, P=0.001). Although there was a trend, we could not show an association with the IgV(H) gene mutation status. Taken together, our study shows that AID expression is an indicator of an unfavorable prognosis in chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma patients, although it is not a surrogate marker for the IgV(H) status. Furthermore, the microenvironment of proliferation centers seems to influence AID regulation and might be an initiating factor in its transformation.Modern Pathology advance online publication, 6 November 2009; doi:10.1038/modpathol.2009.156