Three essays on the Egyptian economy

In questo lavoro si presentano i risultati di tre studi empirici condotti sull\u2019economia egiziana. L\u2019obiettivo \ue8 di aggiungere un contributo ad alcuni settori della ricerca in cui il dibattito \ue8 ancora aperto ed i risultati non sono definitivi. Infatti, secondo la teoria economica, incrementi nel livello di educazione e di apertura internazionale dovrebbero produrre effetti positivi sul PIL. Gli studi econometrici, per\uf2, non sempre supportano la teoria e per di pi\uf9 riportano risultati tra loro contraddittori. L\u2019applicazione di tecniche econometriche pi\uf9 sofisticate evidenzia i limiti delle ricerche precedenti, suggerendo cos\uec che l\u2019indeterminatezza dei risultati raggiunti potrebbe derivare dalla scelta di modelli econometrici non appropriati. Considerando tali critiche, i capitoli 2 e 3 di questo lavoro trattano gli effetti dell\u2019apertura internazionale sul PIL ed applicano due moderni approcci alla cointegrazione sviluppati da Luetkepohl e da Pesaran et al, rispettivamente. Nel capitolo 1, si sono invece studiati gli effetti dell\u2019educazione sul PIL nell\u2019ambito di una funzione di produzione standard, includendo quindi anche un termine di correzione di errore per tener conto degli effetti di lungo periodo. Questo lavoro appartiene al settore di studi relativi alle serie storiche, e si focalizza quindi su un singolo Paese con l\u2019obiettivo di tener conto delle variabili tipiche del Paese stesso o di eventi che non si potrebbero includere lavorando con dati cross-country. Nonostante l\u2019Egitto ed i Paesi confinanti appartenenti alla cosiddetta regione MENA (Middle East and North Africa) siano piuttosto trascurati dalla ricerca, negli ultimi decenni hanno applicato riforme significative, anche in collaborazione con organizzazioni internazionali quali il Fondo Monetario Internazionale. Per questo, riteniamo che l\u2019Egitto sia un ottimo caso di studio per verificare l\u2019efficacia delle politiche raccomandate dalla teoria economica. La prima riforma in ordine cronologico fu adottata negli anni Sessanta con l\u2019obiettivo dell\u2019 \u201ceducazione accessibile a tutti\u201d. Fu successivamente ampliata negli anni Ottanta con l\u2019introduzione dell\u2019istruzione media obbligatoria. Negli anni Novanta il Governo cerc\uf2 di orientare la scelta degli studenti verso le iscrizioni negli istituti professionali, per assecondare le richieste di forza lavoro delle imprese. Queste due ultime riforme sembrano avere incrementato la produttivit\ue0 in termini di PIL per lavoratore. Infatti dalla presente ricerca risulta che il miglioramento della qualit\ue0 del capitale umano espressa in anni medi di istruzione abbia avuto un effetto positivo sul PIL per lavoratore. Si deve riconoscere tuttavia che tali risultati non sarebbero stati possibili senza la prima riforma degli anni Sessanta che prepar\uf2 la strada alle riforme successive. Ancora negli anni Novanta, il Fondo Monetario Internazionale support\uf2 in Egitto la realizzazione di un programma di riforme strutturali (ERSAP) che, tra l\u2019altro, introdusse una progressiva liberalizzazione nel commercio internazionale e maggiori incentivi per gli investimenti diretti esteri (IDE). Anche se probabilmente sarebbe possibile identificare un effetto positivo del commercio estero sul PIL utilizzando una serie storica pi\uf9 estesa, al momento i risultati suggeriscono l\u2019ipotesi opposta di un export supportato dalla crescita economica. L\u2019analisi focalizzata sul commercio con l\u2019Unione Europea mostra invece una relazione causale bidirezionale. Inoltre, le importazioni sono fondamentali per supportare tale risultato. Ci\uf2 suggerisce che l\u2019Egitto potrebbe avvantaggiarsi se riuscisse a rafforzare il suo ruolo di trasformatore di semilavorati. Riguardo agli investimenti esteri (IDE), la ricerca non ha individuato alcuna significativa relazione tra investimenti e PIL. L\u2019Egitto ha introdotto importanti riforme per attrarre investimenti esteri, in particolare ha semplificato la legislazione sul lavoro e le procedure per la creazione di nuove imprese. In realt\ue0, il Paese appare gi\ue0 pronto ad attrarre investimenti esteri, ed infatti questi sono cresciuti sensibilmente negli ultimi anni. Sfortunatamente, si sono concentrati perlopi\uf9 nel settore petrolifero (per l\u201980% circa, secondo i dati della Banca Centrale Egiziana), che \ue8 sotto stretto controllo governativo e dove gli investitori sono rappresentati principalmente da multinazionali. In tale contesto, gli investimenti esteri non sembrano apportare gli attesi benefici in termini di miglioramento delle capacit\ue0 manageriali o maggior produttivit\ue0 della forza lavoro locale. Inoltre, il Paese \ue8 ancora caratterizzato da alti livelli di corruzione e poca trasparenza e responsabilit\ue0 del settore pubblico. Nonostante siano stati esclusi dall\u2019analisi, i recenti eventi politici a partire dal 2011 hanno certamente introdotto ulteriori elementi di instabilit\ue0 percepiti dagli investitori, e probabilmente avranno ricadute negative sugli investimenti esteri nei prossimi anni.In the present work, we show the results of three empirical studies conducted on the Egyptian economy. Our aim is to add a contribution to some fields of research where the debate is still open and the results are yet inconclusive. Indeed, according to the economic theory, higher levels of education and openness should have a positive effect on GDP. Surprisingly, the econometric studies do not always support the theory and furthermore give contradictory results. The implementation of more sophisticated econometric techniques sheds lights to the limits of previous works, thus suggesting that one of the main causes for unconvincing results may be the choice of an inappropriate econometric approach. Following such critics, Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 of this work deal with the effects of openness on GDP and implement two recent approaches to cointegration developed by Luetkepohl and by Pesaran et al respectively. In Chapter 1 we have instead studied the effects of education on GDP within the framework of a standard production function, though including an error correction term to account for long term effects. This work belongs to the field of studies conducted on time series, and therefore focuses on a single country with the purpose of accounting for country-specific variables or events that otherwise could not be included when dealing with cross-country data. Although Egypt and the neighbouring countries belonging to the so-called MENA region are quite ignored, in the recent decades they have implemented significant reforms, also with the support of international organization such as the IMF. Thus, we think that Egypt is an excellent case study to assess the effectiveness of the policies recommended by the economic theory. The first reform in chronological order was adopted in the 1960s to reach the goal of \u201cfree basic education for all\u201d. It was then improved in the 1980s with the introduction of compulsory attendance at the preparatory level. In the 1990s the Government supported the shift of enrollments towards the vocational secondary school, in order to meet the firms\u2019 needs. These two latter reforms seem to have reached the goal of increasing the productivity expressed as GDP per worker. Sure enough, we have found that the improvement of the quality of human capital in terms of average years of education had a positive effect on GDP per worker. It must be recognized that such result would not have been achieved without the first reform of the 1960s that paved the way to the subsequent reforms. Again in the 1990s, the IMF supported Egypt in a Structural Reforms Programme (ERSAP) that called for a progressive liberalization of trade and for more incentives to FDI. Although we might be able to assess a positive effect of trade on GDP when the time series is extended to a longer time period, at present our results support the opposite Growth-led Export (GLE) hypothesis. The analysis focused on trade with the European Union shows instead a bidirectional relationship. Yet, imports are fundamental for the assessment of such causal relationships. This suggests that Egypt could gain if she will be able to enhance her role of transformer of intermediate goods. With regard to FDI, we have not been able to detect any significant positive relationship from FDI to GDP. Egypt implemented important reforms in order to attract foreign investments, particularly she eased the legislation on labour and the bureaucratic procedures needed to establish a new enterprise. Thus, the country seems to be already prepared to attract FDI, and indeed they have increased significantly in the recent years. Unfortunately, they are mainly concentrated in the oil sector (about 80% of total FDI according to recent data from the Egyptian Central Bank), that is under strict governmental control, while the investors are multinational firms. In such a situation, the foreign investments do not seem to provide the expected widespread effects in terms of inflows of managerial skills or higher productivity of the local workforce. Yet, the country still has to deal with high levels of corruption, little transparency and accountability of the public sector. Although excluded by the analysis, the recent political events since 2011 have introduced an additional element of perceived instability, that will probably further affect negatively the attractiveness of the country for foreign investments in the coming years

On the management of nature-based solutions in open-air laboratories: new insights and future perspectives

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Altimetry for the future: Building on 25 years of progress

In 2018 we celebrated 25 years of development of radar altimetry, and the progress achieved by this methodology in the fields of global and coastal oceanography, hydrology, geodesy and cryospheric sciences. Many symbolic major events have celebrated these developments, e.g., in Venice, Italy, the 15th (2006) and 20th (2012) years of progress and more recently, in 2018, in Ponta Delgada, Portugal, 25 Years of Progress in Radar Altimetry. On this latter occasion it was decided to collect contributions of scientists, engineers and managers involved in the worldwide altimetry community to depict the state of altimetry and propose recommendations for the altimetry of the future. This paper summarizes contributions and recommendations that were collected and provides guidance for future mission design, research activities, and sustainable operational radar altimetry data exploitation. Recommendations provided are fundamental for optimizing further scientific and operational advances of oceanographic observations by altimetry, including requirements for spatial and temporal resolution of altimetric measurements, their accuracy and continuity. There are also new challenges and new openings mentioned in the paper that are particularly crucial for observations at higher latitudes, for coastal oceanography, for cryospheric studies and for hydrology. The paper starts with a general introduction followed by a section on Earth System Science including Ocean Dynamics, Sea Level, the Coastal Ocean, Hydrology, the Cryosphere and Polar Oceans and the ‘‘Green” Ocean, extending the frontier from biogeochemistry to marine ecology. Applications are described in a subsequent section, which covers Operational Oceanography, Weather, Hurricane Wave and Wind Forecasting, Climate projection. Instruments’ development and satellite missions’ evolutions are described in a fourth section. A fifth section covers the key observations that altimeters provide and their potential complements, from other Earth observation measurements to in situ data. Section 6 identifies the data and methods and provides some accuracy and resolution requirements for the wet tropospheric correction, the orbit and other geodetic requirements, the Mean Sea Surface, Geoid and Mean Dynamic Topography, Calibration and Validation, data accuracy, data access and handling (including the DUACS system). Section 7 brings a transversal view on scales, integration, artificial intelligence, and capacity building (education and training). Section 8 reviews the programmatic issues followed by a conclusion

Altimetry for the future: building on 25 years of progress

In 2018 we celebrated 25 years of development of radar altimetry, and the progress achieved by this methodology in the fields of global and coastal oceanography, hydrology, geodesy and cryospheric sciences. Many symbolic major events have celebrated these developments, e.g., in Venice, Italy, the 15th (2006) and 20th (2012) years of progress and more recently, in 2018, in Ponta Delgada, Portugal, 25 Years of Progress in Radar Altimetry. On this latter occasion it was decided to collect contributions of scientists, engineers and managers involved in the worldwide altimetry community to depict the state of altimetry and propose recommendations for the altimetry of the future. This paper summarizes contributions and recommendations that were collected and provides guidance for future mission design, research activities, and sustainable operational radar altimetry data exploitation. Recommendations provided are fundamental for optimizing further scientific and operational advances of oceanographic observations by altimetry, including requirements for spatial and temporal resolution of altimetric measurements, their accuracy and continuity. There are also new challenges and new openings mentioned in the paper that are particularly crucial for observations at higher latitudes, for coastal oceanography, for cryospheric studies and for hydrology. The paper starts with a general introduction followed by a section on Earth System Science including Ocean Dynamics, Sea Level, the Coastal Ocean, Hydrology, the Cryosphere and Polar Oceans and the “Green” Ocean, extending the frontier from biogeochemistry to marine ecology. Applications are described in a subsequent section, which covers Operational Oceanography, Weather, Hurricane Wave and Wind Forecasting, Climate projection. Instruments’ development and satellite missions’ evolutions are described in a fourth section. A fifth section covers the key observations that altimeters provide and their potential complements, from other Earth observation measurements to in situ data. Section 6 identifies the data and methods and provides some accuracy and resolution requirements for the wet tropospheric correction, the orbit and other geodetic requirements, the Mean Sea Surface, Geoid and Mean Dynamic Topography, Calibration and Validation, data accuracy, data access and handling (including the DUACS system). Section 7 brings a transversal view on scales, integration, artificial intelligence, and capacity building (education and training). Section 8 reviews the programmatic issues followed by a conclusion

Flooding in the Digital Twin Earth: The Case Study of the Enza River Levee Breach in December 2017

The accurate delineation of flood hazard maps is a key element of flood risk management policy. Flood inundation models are fundamental for reproducing the boundaries of flood-prone areas, but their calibration is limited to the information available on the areas affected by inundation during observed flood events (typically fragmentary photo, video or partial surveys). In recent years, Earth Observation data have supported flood monitoring and emergency response (e.g., the Copernicus Emergency Service) thanks to the proliferation of available satellite sensors, also at high spatial resolution. Under this umbrella, the study investigates a levee breach that occurred in December 2017 along the Enza River, a right tributary of the Po River, that caused the inundation of a large area including Lentigione village. The flood event is simulated with a 2D hydraulic model using satellite images to calibrate the roughness coefficients. The results show that the processing and the timing of the high-resolution satellite imagery is fundamental for a reliable representation of the flooded area

A digital twin of the terrestrial water cycle : a glimpse into the future through high-resolution Earth observations

Climate change is profoundly affecting the global water cycle, increasing the likelihood and severity of extreme water-related events. Better decision-support systems are vital to accurately predict and monitor water-related environmental disasters and optimally manage water resources. These must integrate advances in remote sensing, in situ, and citizen observations with high-resolution Earth system modeling, artificial intelligence (AI), information and communication technologies, and high-performance computing. Digital Twin Earth (DTE) models are a ground-breaking solution offering digital replicas to monitor and simulate Earth processes with unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution. Advances in Earth observation (EO) satellite technology are pivotal, and here we provide a roadmap for the exploitation of these methods in a DTE for hydrology. The 4-dimensional DTE Hydrology datacube now fuses high-resolution EO data and advanced modeling of soil moisture, precipitation, evaporation, and river discharge, and here we report the latest validation data in the Mediterranean Basin. This system can now be explored to forecast flooding and landslides and to manage irrigation for precision agriculture. Large-scale implementation of such methods will require further advances to assess high-resolution products across different regions and climates; create and integrate compatible multidimensional datacubes, EO data retrieval algorithms, and models that are suitable across multiple scales; manage uncertainty both in EO data and models; enhance computational capacity via an interoperable, cloud-based processing environment embodying open data principles; and harness AI/machine learning. We outline how various planned satellite missions will further facilitate a DTE for hydrology toward global benefit if the scientific and technological challenges we identify are addressed