The Vehicle, Spring 1993

1993 Commemorative Edition: Celebrating 35 Years Table of Contents The Vehicle Editors\u27 Lineagepage 5 Milestonespage 6 THE SIXTIES Coverspage 7 Editors\u27 Notespage 8 Sureness is Never - excerptDon Shepardsonpage 9 SophisticationBenjamin Polkpage 10 A SonnetMignon Stricklandpage 11 The Twenty-Third ChannelBen Polkpage 11 Opposite AttractionsC.E.M. (Christine McColl)page 12 John F. KennedyJoel E. Hendrickspage 13 The Girl on the White PonyLarry Gatespage 14 The TimesW.D.M. (William Moser)page 16 Home ThoughtsJane Careypage 17 1966Roger Zulaufpage 18 Nagging ThoughtJanet Andrewspage 18 THE SEVENTIES Coverspage 19 Editors\u27 Notespage 20 RevolutionsSteve Siegelpage 21 UntitledKristine Kirkhampage 23 The Arithmetic ProblemJanice Forbuspage 23 Willie Seeverson Threw a Worm at MeMary Pipekpage 24 a love poem (by approximation)Ted Baldwinpage 25 Night and Summer in Two WorldsBarry Smithpage 26 Story of a Teenage PickleTerry Louis Schultzpage 27 Danny Lonely, Danny WildDevin Brownpage 28 Always TomorrowMary McDanielpage 29 THE EIGHTIES Coverspage 31 Having ChildrenDevon Flesorpage 33 What is Unnatural Is Sometimes MagicAngelique Jenningspage 34 If My Father Were A Writer, He Would Still BuildAngelique Jenningspage 35 Photo AlbumPatrick Peterspage 36 Poet Born in Pearl HarborAngelique Jenningspage 37 The History of High School BasketballPatrick Peterspage 38 Banana BreadGail Bowerpage 39 Cover LetterBob Zordanipage 40 Home MoviesBob Zordanipage 41 MigrationPatrick Peterspage 42 THE NINETIES Ba, Ba, Black SheepVictoria Bennettpage 45 Daily LessonsJennifer Moropage 49 Folding My OwnLaurie Ann Malispage 51 About the Authorspage 53 Editors\u27 Notespage 56https://thekeep.eiu.edu/vehicle/1062/thumbnail.jp

The Vehicle, Spring 1993

1993 Commemorative Edition: Celebrating 35 Years Table of Contents The Vehicle Editors\u27 Lineagepage 5 Milestonespage 6 THE SIXTIES Coverspage 7 Editors\u27 Notespage 8 Sureness is Never - excerptDon Shepardsonpage 9 SophisticationBenjamin Polkpage 10 A SonnetMignon Stricklandpage 11 The Twenty-Third ChannelBen Polkpage 11 Opposite AttractionsC.E.M. (Christine McColl)page 12 John F. KennedyJoel E. Hendrickspage 13 The Girl on the White PonyLarry Gatespage 14 The TimesW.D.M. (William Moser)page 16 Home ThoughtsJane Careypage 17 1966Roger Zulaufpage 18 Nagging ThoughtJanet Andrewspage 18 THE SEVENTIES Coverspage 19 Editors\u27 Notespage 20 RevolutionsSteve Siegelpage 21 UntitledKristine Kirkhampage 23 The Arithmetic ProblemJanice Forbuspage 23 Willie Seeverson Threw a Worm at MeMary Pipekpage 24 a love poem (by approximation)Ted Baldwinpage 25 Night and Summer in Two WorldsBarry Smithpage 26 Story of a Teenage PickleTerry Louis Schultzpage 27 Danny Lonely, Danny WildDevin Brownpage 28 Always TomorrowMary McDanielpage 29 THE EIGHTIES Coverspage 31 Having ChildrenDevon Flesorpage 33 What is Unnatural Is Sometimes MagicAngelique Jenningspage 34 If My Father Were A Writer, He Would Still BuildAngelique Jenningspage 35 Photo AlbumPatrick Peterspage 36 Poet Born in Pearl HarborAngelique Jenningspage 37 The History of High School BasketballPatrick Peterspage 38 Banana BreadGail Bowerpage 39 Cover LetterBob Zordanipage 40 Home MoviesBob Zordanipage 41 MigrationPatrick Peterspage 42 THE NINETIES Ba, Ba, Black SheepVictoria Bennettpage 45 Daily LessonsJennifer Moropage 49 Folding My OwnLaurie Ann Malispage 51 About the Authorspage 53 Editors\u27 Notespage 56https://thekeep.eiu.edu/vehicle/1062/thumbnail.jp

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

The Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer consensus statement on immunotherapy for the treatment of hematologic malignancies: multiple myeloma, lymphoma, and acute leukemia

Increasing knowledge concerning the biology of hematologic malignancies as well as the role of the immune system in the control of these diseases has led to the development and approval of immunotherapies that are resulting in impressive clinical responses. Therefore, the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer (SITC) convened a hematologic malignancy Cancer Immunotherapy Guidelines panel consisting of physicians, nurses, patient advocates, and patients to develop consensus recommendations for the clinical application of immunotherapy for patients with multiple myeloma, lymphoma, and acute leukemia. These recommendations were developed following the previously established process based on the Institute of Medicine’s clinical practice guidelines. In doing so, a systematic literature search was performed for high-impact studies from 2004 to 2014 and was supplemented with further literature as identified by the panel. The consensus panel met in December of 2014 with the goal to generate consensus recommendations for the clinical use of immunotherapy in patients with hematologic malignancies. During this meeting, consensus panel voting along with discussion were used to rate and review the strength of the supporting evidence from the literature search. These consensus recommendations focus on issues related to patient selection, toxicity management, clinical endpoints, and the sequencing or combination of therapies. Overall, immunotherapy is rapidly emerging as an effective therapeutic strategy for the management of hematologic malignances. Evidence-based consensus recommendations for its clinical application are provided and will be updated as the field evolves

Power-Law Scaling in the Brain Surface Electric Potential

Recent studies have identified broadband phenomena in the electric potentials produced by the brain. We report the finding of power-law scaling in these signals using subdural electrocorticographic recordings from the surface of human cortex. The power spectral density (PSD) of the electric potential has the power-law form from 80 to 500 Hz. This scaling index, , is conserved across subjects, area in the cortex, and local neural activity levels. The shape of the PSD does not change with increases in local cortical activity, but the amplitude, , increases. We observe a “knee” in the spectra at , implying the existence of a characteristic time scale . Below , we explore two-power-law forms of the PSD, and demonstrate that there are activity-related fluctuations in the amplitude of a power-law process lying beneath the rhythms. Finally, we illustrate through simulation how, small-scale, simplified neuronal models could lead to these power-law observations. This suggests a new paradigm of non-oscillatory “asynchronous,” scale-free, changes in cortical potentials, corresponding to changes in mean population-averaged firing rate, to complement the prevalent “synchronous” rhythm-based paradigm

State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)

The James Webb Space Telescope Mission

Twenty-six years ago a small committee report, building on earlier studies, expounded a compelling and poetic vision for the future of astronomy, calling for an infrared-optimized space telescope with an aperture of at least $4m$. With the support of their governments in the US, Europe, and Canada, 20,000 people realized that vision as the $6.5m$ James Webb Space Telescope. A generation of astronomers will celebrate their accomplishments for the life of the mission, potentially as long as 20 years, and beyond. This report and the scientific discoveries that follow are extended thank-you notes to the 20,000 team members. The telescope is working perfectly, with much better image quality than expected. In this and accompanying papers, we give a brief history, describe the observatory, outline its objectives and current observing program, and discuss the inventions and people who made it possible. We cite detailed reports on the design and the measured performance on orbit.Comment: Accepted by PASP for the special issue on The James Webb Space Telescope Overview, 29 pages, 4 figure

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages