Evolutionary trait‐based approaches for predicting future global impacts of plant pathogens in the genus Phytophthora

Plant pathogens are introduced to new geographical regions ever more frequently as global connectivity increases. Predicting the threat they pose to plant health can be difficult without in‐depth knowledge of behaviour, distribution and spread. Here, we evaluate the potential for using biological traits and phylogeny to predict global threats from emerging pathogens. We use a species‐level trait database and phylogeny for 179 Phytophthora species: oomycete pathogens impacting natural, agricultural, horticultural and forestry settings. We compile host and distribution reports for Phytophthora species across 178 countries and evaluate the power of traits, phylogeny and time since description (reflecting species‐level knowledge) to explain and predict their international transport, maximum latitude and host breadth using Bayesian phylogenetic generalised linear mixed models. In the best‐performing models, traits, phylogeny and time since description together explained up to 90%, 97% and 87% of variance in number of countries reached, latitudinal limits and host range, respectively. Traits and phylogeny together explained up to 26%, 41% and 34% of variance in the number of countries reached, maximum latitude and host plant families affected, respectively, but time since description had the strongest effect. Root‐attacking species were reported in more countries, and on more host plant families than foliar‐attacking species. Host generalist pathogens had thicker‐walled resting structures (stress‐tolerant oospores) and faster growth rates at their optima. Cold‐tolerant species are reported in more countries and at higher latitudes, though more accurate interspecific empirical data are needed to confirm this finding. Policy implications. We evaluate the potential of an evolutionary trait‐based framework to support horizon‐scanning approaches for identifying pathogens with greater potential for global‐scale impacts. Potential future threats from Phytophthora include Phytophthora x heterohybrida, P. lactucae, P. glovera, P. x incrassata, P. amnicola and P. aquimorbida, which are recently described, possibly under‐reported species, with similar traits and/or phylogenetic proximity to other high‐impact species. Priority traits to measure for emerging species may be thermal minima, oospore wall index and growth rate at optimum temperature. Trait‐based horizon‐scanning approaches would benefit from the development of international and cross‐sectoral collaborations to deliver centralised databases incorporating pathogen distributions, traits and phylogeny

Heavy Quarks and Heavy Quarkonia as Tests of Thermalization

We present here a brief summary of new results on heavy quarks and heavy quarkonia from the PHENIX experiment as presented at the "Quark Gluon Plasma Thermalization" Workshop in Vienna, Austria in August 2005, directly following the International Quark Matter Conference in Hungary.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, Quark Gluon Plasma Thermalization Workshop (Vienna August 2005) Proceeding

A pro-inflammatory diet in people with multiple sclerosis is associated with an increased rate of relapse and increased FLAIR lesion volume on MRI in early multiple sclerosis: A prospective cohort study

First published online May 6, 2023Background: A pro-inflammatory diet has been posited to induce chronic inflammation within the central nervous system (CNS), and multiple sclerosis (MS) is an inflammatory disease of the CNS. Objective: We examined whether Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII®)) scores are associated with measures of MS progression and inflammatory activity. Methods: A cohort with a first clinical diagnosis of CNS demyelination was followed annually (10 years, n=223). At baseline, 5- and 10-year reviews, DII and energy-adjusted DII (E-DIITM) scores were calculated (food frequency questionnaire) and assessed as predictors of relapses, annualised change in disability (Expanded Disability Status Scale) and two magnetic resonance imaging measures; fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) lesion volume and black hole lesion volume. Results: A more pro-inflammatory diet was associated with a higher relapse risk (highest vs. lowest E-DII quartile: hazard ratio=2.24, 95% confidence interval (CI)= −1.16, 4.33, p=0.02). When we limited analyses to those assessed on the same manufacturer of scanner and those with a first demyelinating event at study entry (to reduce error and disease heterogeneity), an association between E-DII score and FLAIR lesion volume was evident (β=0.38, 95% CI=0.04, 0.72, p=0.03). Conclusion: There is a longitudinal association between a higher DII and a worsening in relapse rate and periventricular FLAIR lesion volume in people with MS.Alice M Saul, Bruce V Taylor, Leigh Blizzard, Steve Simpson-Yap, Wendy H Oddy, Nittin Shivappa, James R Hébert, Lucinda J Black, Anne-Louise Ponsonby, Simon A Broadley, Jeanette Lechner-Scott and Ingrid van der Mei, Ausimmune, AusLong Investigators Grou

Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today’s gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. METHODS: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. FINDINGS: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, an

The Physics of the B Factories

This work is on the Physics of the B Factories. Part A of this book contains a brief description of the SLAC and KEK B Factories as well as their detectors, BaBar and Belle, and data taking related issues. Part B discusses tools and methods used by the experiments in order to obtain results. The results themselves can be found in Part C

A hot mini-Neptune in the radius valley orbiting solar analogue HD 110113

We report the discovery of HD 110113 b (TESS object of interest-755.01), a transiting mini-Neptune exoplanet on a 2.5-d orbit around the solar-analogue HD 110113 (Teff = 5730 K). Using TESS photometry and High Accuracy Radial velocity Planet Searcher (HARPS) radial velocities gathered by the NCORES program, we find that HD 110113 b has a radius of 2.05 ± 0.12 R⊕ and a mass of 4.55 ± 0.62 M⊕. The resulting density of $2.90^{+0.75}_{-0.59}$ g cm-3 is significantly lower than would be expected from a pure-rock world; therefore HD 110113 b must be a mini-Neptune with a significant volatile atmosphere. The high incident flux places it within the so-called radius valley; however, HD 110113 b was able to hold on to a substantial (0.1-1 per cent) H-He atmosphere over its ∼4 Gyr lifetime. Through a novel simultaneous Gaussian process fit to multiple activity indicators, we were also able to fit for the strong stellar rotation signal with period 20.8 ± 1.2 d from the RVs and confirm an additional non-transiting planet, HD 110113 c, which has a mass of 10.5 ± 1.2 M⊕ and a period of $6.744^{+0.008}_{-0.009}$ d

TESS discovery of a super-earth and three sub-neptunes hosted by the bright, sunlike star HD 108236

We report the discovery and validation of four extrasolar planets hosted by the nearby, bright, Sun-like (G3V) star HD 108236 using data from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). We present transit photometry, reconnaissance, and precise Doppler spectroscopy, as well as high-resolution imaging, to validate the planetary nature of the objects transiting HD 108236, also known as the TESS Object of Interest (TOI) 1233. The innermost planet is a possibly rocky super-Earth with a period of 3.79523+0.00047-0.00044 days and has a radius of 1.586 ± 0.098 R⊗.The outer planets are sub-Neptunes, with potential gaseous envelopes, having radii of 2.068+0.10-0.091 R⊗, 2.72 ± 0.11 R⊗, and 3.12+0.13-0.12 R⊗ and periods of 6.20370+0.00064-0.00052 days, 14.17555+0.00099-0.0011 days, and 19.5917+0.0022-0.0020 days, respectively. With V and Ks magnitudes of 9.2 and 7.6, respectively, the bright host star makes the transiting planets favorable targets for mass measurements and, potentially, for atmospheric characterization via transmission spectroscopy. HD 108236 is the brightest Sun-like star in the visual (V ) band known to host four or more transiting exoplanets. The discovered planets span a broad range of planetary radii and equilibrium temperatures and share a common history of insolation from a Sun-like star (R∗ = 0.888 ± 0.017 R⊙, Teff = 5730 ± 50 K), making HD 108236 an exciting, opportune cosmic laboratory for testing models of planet formation and evolution