What happened to health labour markets during COVID-19? Insights from the analysis of cross-sectional survey data on the perceptions of medical doctors in Brazil.

OBJECTIVES: To examine physicians' perceptions of changing employment opportunities in Brazil, and gain an insight into labour markets in low/middle-income countries (LMICs) during the pandemic. STUDY DESIGN: Descriptive and inferential analysis of a quantitative dataset from a representative cross-sectional survey of physicians of two Brazilian states. SETTINGS: São Paulo and Maranhão states in Brazil. PARTICIPANTS: Representative sample of 1183 physicians. OUTCOME MEASURES: We estimated prevalence and 95% CIs for physicians' perceptions of changes in demand and supply of doctors, as well as changes in prices of medical services for facilities of practice in the two states, stratified by public, private and dual-practice physicians. RESULTS: Most doctors reported increased job opportunities in the public sector (54.9%, 95% CI 52.0% to 57.7%), particularly in Maranhão state (65.0%, 95% CI 60.9% to 68.9%). For the private sector, increased opportunities were reported only in large private hospitals (46.7%, 95% CI 43.9% to 49.6%) but not in smaller clinics. We recorded perceptions of slight increases in availability of doctors in Maranhão, particularly in the public sector (51.4%, 95% CI 43.2% to 59.5%). Younger doctors recounted increased vacancies in the public sector (64%, 95% CI 58.1% to 68.1%), older doctors only in walk-in clinics in Maranhão (47.5%, 95% CI 39.9% to 55.1%). Those working directly with patients with COVID-19 saw opportunities in public hospitals (65%, 95% CI 62.3% to 68.4%) and in large private ones (55%, 95% CI 51.8% to 59.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings hint that health labour markets in LMICs may not necessarily shrink during epidemics, and that impacts will depend on the balance of public and private services in national health systems

Revolving doors and conflicts of interest in health regulatory agencies in Brazil

Regulatory health agencies exist in most public health systems (PHS) and play a crucial role in enacting regulation and overseeing economic activities in order to ensure the quality of health systems, goods and services.1 Multiple practices of corruption such as bribery or fraud have been reported in health policy and systems.2 Public health agencies are particularly susceptible to ‘regulatory capture’,3 4 a process by which an agency advances the special interests of the industries and of other actors it is entrusted with regulating. One of the mechanisms that can potentially lead to an agency capture is the so-called ‘revolving door’,5 the situation where an exchange of roles between public regulators and regulated institutions may result in health policy decisions which are biased in favour of industry interests. Revolving doors have previously been described in the USA and Europe, with an emphasis on legislative, energy, financial and patent agencies. However, there is little empirical evidence on the scale and scope of this problem in PHS. In this commentary, we explore the extent of the revolving doors phenomenon in Brazil by analysing the professional trajectories of public agents who held high positions at the two key health regulatory agencies in the country between 1999 and 2018

A falls prevention programme to improve quality of life, physical function and falls efficacy in older people receiving home help services: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Falls and fall-related injuries in older adults are associated with great burdens, both for the individuals, the health care system and the society. Previous research has shown evidence for the efficiency of exercise as falls prevention. An understudied group are older adults receiving home help services, and the effect of a falls prevention programme on health-related quality of life is unclear. The primary aim of this randomised controlled trial is to examine the effect of a falls prevention programme on quality of life, physical function and falls efficacy in older adults receiving home help services. A secondary aim is to explore the mediating factors between falls prevention and health-related quality of life. METHODS: The study is a single-blinded randomised controlled trial. Participants are older adults, aged 67 or older, receiving home help services, who are able to walk with or without walking aids, who have experienced at least one fall during the last 12 months and who have a Mini Mental State Examination of 23 or above. The intervention group receives a programme, based on the Otago Exercise Programme, lasting 12 weeks including home visits and motivational telephone calls. The control group receives usual care. The primary outcome is health-related quality of life (SF-36). Secondary outcomes are leg strength, balance, walking speed, walking habits, activities of daily living, nutritional status and falls efficacy. All measurements are performed at baseline, following intervention at 3 months and at 6 months' follow-up. Sample size, based on the primary outcome, is set to 150 participants randomised into the two arms, including an estimated 15-20% drop out. Participants are recruited from six municipalities in Norway. DISCUSSION: This trial will generate new knowledge on the effects of an exercise falls prevention programme among older fallers receiving home help services. This knowledge will be useful for clinicians, for health managers in the primary health care service and for policy makers

The aetiologies of epilepsy

The identification of the aetiology of a patient's epilepsy is instrumental in the diagnosis, prognostic counselling and management of the epilepsies. Indeed, the aetiology can be important for determining the recurrence risk of single seizures and so for making a diagnosis of epilepsy. Here, we divide the aetiologies into six categories: structural, genetic, infectious, metabolic, immune (all of which are part of the International League Against Epilepsy [ILAE] classification system) and neurodegenerative (which we have considered separately because of its growing importance in epilepsy). These are not mutually exclusive categories and many aetiologies fall into more than one category. Indeed, genetic factors probably play a role, to varying degrees, in the risk of seizures in all people with epilepsy. In each of the categories, we discuss what we regard as the most important aetiologies; importance being determined not only by prevalence but also by clinical significance. The introduction contains information suitable for level 1 competency (entry level), whilst the subsequent sections contain information aimed at level 2 competency (proficiency level) as part of the new ILAE competency-based curriculum. As we move towards precision medicine and targeted therapies, so aetiologies will play an even greater role in the management of epilepsy

Low atmospheric CO2 levels during the Little Ice Age due to cooling-induced terrestrial uptake

Low atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration during the Little Ice Age has been used to derive the global carbon cycle sensitivity to temperature. Recent evidence confirms earlier indications that the low CO2 was caused by increased terrestrial carbon storage. It remains unknown whether the terrestrial biosphere responded to temperature variations, or there was vegetation re-growth on abandoned farmland. Here we present a global numerical simulation of atmospheric carbonyl sulfide concentrations in the pre-industrial period. Carbonyl sulfide concentration is linked to changes in gross primary production and shows a positive anomaly during the Little Ice Age. We show that a decrease in gross primary production and a larger decrease in ecosystem respiration is the most likely explanation for the decrease in atmospheric CO2 and increase in atmospheric carbonyl sulfide concentrations. Therefore, temperature change, not vegetation re-growth, was the main cause of the increased terrestrial carbon storage. We address the inconsistency between ice-core CO2 records from different sites measuring CO2 and δ13CO2 in ice from Dronning Maud Land (Antarctica). Our interpretation allows us to derive the temperature sensitivity of pre-industrial CO2 fluxes for the terrestrial biosphere (γL = -10 to -90 Pg C K-1), implying a positive climate feedback and providing a benchmark to reduce model uncertainties

Taxonomic and functional turnover are decoupled in European peat bogs

In peatland ecosystems, plant communities mediate a globally significant carbon store. The effects of global environmental change on plant assemblages are expected to be a factor in determining how ecosystem functions such as carbon uptake will respond. Using vegetation data from 56 Sphagnum-dominated peat bogs across Europe, we show that in these ecosystems plant species aggregate into two major clusters that are each defined by shared response to environmental conditions. Across environmental gradients, we find significant taxonomic turnover in both clusters. However, functional identity and functional redundancy of the community as a whole remain unchanged. This strongly suggests that in peat bogs, species turnover across environmental gradients is restricted to functionally similar species. Our results demonstrate that plant taxonomic and functional turnover are decoupled, which may allow these peat bogs to maintain ecosystem functioning when subject to future environmental change

Nothing Lasts Forever: Environmental Discourses on the Collapse of Past Societies

The study of the collapse of past societies raises many questions for the theory and practice of archaeology. Interest in collapse extends as well into the natural sciences and environmental and sustainability policy. Despite a range of approaches to collapse, the predominant paradigm is environmental collapse, which I argue obscures recognition of the dynamic role of social processes that lie at the heart of human communities. These environmental discourses, together with confusion over terminology and the concepts of collapse, have created widespread aporia about collapse and resulted in the creation of mixed messages about complex historical and social processes

How the 'plates' of a health system can shift, change and adjust during economic recessions: A qualitative interview study of public and private health providers in Brazil's Sao Paulo and Maranhao states

Background: Economic recessions carry an impact on population health and access to care; less is known on how health systems adapt to the conditions brought by a downturn. This particularly matters now that the COVID-19 epidemic is putting health systems under stress. Brazil is one of the world’s most affected countries, and its health system was already experiencing the aftermath of the 2015 recession. Methods: Between 2018 and 2019 we conducted 46 semi-structured interviews with health practitioners, managers and policy-makers to explore the impact of the 2015 recession on public and private providers in prosperous (São Paulo) and impoverished (Maranhão) states in Brazil. Thematic analysis was employed to identify drivers and consequences of system adaptation and coping strategies. Nvivo software was used to aid data collection and analysis. We followed the Standards for Reporting Qualitative Research to provide an account of the findings. Results: We found the concept of ‘health sector crisis’ to be politically charged among healthcare providers in São Paulo and Maranhão. Contrary to expectations, the public sector was reported to have found ways to compensate for diminishing federal funding, having outsourced services and adopted flexible–if insecure–working arrangements. Following a drop in employment and health plans, private health insurance companies have streamlined their offer, at times at the expenses of coverage. Low-cost walk-in clinics were hit hard by the recession, but were also credited for having moved to cater for higher-income customers in Maranhão. Conclusions: The ‘plates’ of a health system may shift and adjust in unexpected ways in response to recessions, and some of these changes might outlast the crisis. As low-income countries enter post-COVID economic recessions, it will be important to monitor the adjustments taking place in health systems, to ensure that past gains in access to care and job security are not eroded