HIV Treatment as Prevention: Systematic Comparison of Mathematical Models of the Potential Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy on HIV Incidence in South Africa

Background: Many mathematical models have investigated the impact of expanding access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on new HIV infections. Comparing results and conclusions across models is challenging because models have addressed slightly different questions and have reported different outcome metrics. This study compares the predictions of several mathematical models simulating the same ART intervention programmes to determine the extent to which models agree about the epidemiological impact of expanded ART. Methods and Findings: Twelve independent mathematical models evaluated a set of standardised ART intervention scenarios in South Africa and reported a common set of outputs. Intervention scenarios systematically varied the CD4 count threshold for treatment eligibility, access to treatment, and programme retention. For a scenario in which 80% of HIV-infected individuals start treatment on average 1 y after their CD4 count drops below 350 cells/µl and 85% remain on treatment after 3 y, the models projected that HIV incidence would be 35% to 54% lower 8 y after the introduction of ART, compared to a counterfactual scenario in which there is no ART. More variation existed in the estimated long-term (38 y) reductions in incidence. The impact of optimistic interventions including immediate ART initiation varied widely across models, maintaining substantial uncertainty about the theoretical prospect for elimination of HIV from the population using ART alone over the next four decades. The number of person-years of ART per infection averted over 8 y ranged between 5.8 and 18.7. Considering the actual scale-up of ART in South Africa, seven models estimated that current HIV incidence is 17% to 32% lower than it would have been in the absence of ART. Differences between model assumptions about CD4 decline and HIV transmissibility over the course of infection explained only a modest amount of the variation in model results. Conclusions: Mathematical models evaluating the impact of ART vary substantially in structure, complexity, and parameter choices, but all suggest that ART, at high levels of access and with high adherence, has the potential to substantially reduce new HIV infections. There was broad agreement regarding the short-term epidemiologic impact of ambitious treatment scale-up, but more variation in longer term projections and in the efficiency with which treatment can reduce new infections. Differences between model predictions could not be explained by differences in model structure or parameterization that were hypothesized to affect intervention impact

Sonication of heart valves detects more bacteria in infective endocarditis

Optimal antimicrobial treatment of infective endocarditis requires identification and susceptibility patterns of pathogens. Sonication of explanted heart valves could increase the identification and culture of pathogens, as shown in prosthetic joint and pacemaker/ICD infections. We tested 26 explanted heart valves from 20 patients with active definite endocarditis for added diagnostic value of sonication to the standard microbiological workup in a prospective diagnostic proof of concept study. Two sonication protocols (broth enrichment vs. centrifugation) were compared in an additional 35 negative control valves for contamination rates. We selected sonication/centrifugation based on acceptable false positive rates (11.4%; 4/35). Sonication/enrichment yielded many false positive results in negative controls (28.6%; 10/35), mainly Propionibacterium acnes (next-generation sequencing excluded technical problems). Compared to direct culture only, adding sonication/centrifugation (including molecular testing) significantly increased the diagnostic yield from 6/26 to 17/26 valves (p = 0.003). Most importantly, culture positives almost doubled (from 6 to 10), providing unique quantitative information about antimicrobial susceptibility. Even if direct molecular testing was added to the standard workup, sonication/centrifugation provided additional diagnostic information in a significant number of valves (8/26; 31%; p = 0.013). We concluded that sonication/centrifugation added relevant diagnostic information in the workup of heart valves with infective endocarditis, with acceptable contamination rates

The Genetic Structure of Leishmania infantum Populations in Brazil and Its Possible Association with the Transmission Cycle of Visceral Leishmaniasis

Leishmania infantum is the etiologic agent of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Americas, Mediterranean basin and West and Central Asia. Although the geographic structure of L. infantum populations from the Old World have been described, few studies have addressed the population structure of this parasite in the Neotropical region. We employed 14 microsatellites to analyze the population structure of the L. infantum strains isolated from humans and dogs from most of the Brazilian states endemic for VL and from Paraguay. The results indicate a low genetic diversity, high inbreeding estimates and a depletion of heterozygotes, which together indicate a predominantly clonal breeding system, but signs of sexual events are also present. Three populations were identified from the clustering analysis, and they were well supported by F statistics inferences and partially corroborated by distance-based. POP1 (111 strains) was observed in all but one endemic area. POP2 (31 strains) is also well-dispersed, but it was the predominant population in Mato Grosso (MT). POP3 (31 strains) was less dispersed, and it was observed primarily in Mato Grosso do Sul (MS). Strains originated from an outbreak of canine VL in Southern Brazil were grouped in POP1 with those from Paraguay, which corroborates the hypothesis of dispersal from Northeastern Argentina and Paraguay. The distribution of VL in MS seems to follow the west-east construction of the Bolivia-Brazil pipeline from Corumbá municipality. This may have resulted in a strong association of POP3 and Lutzomyia cruzi, which is the main VL vector in Corumbá, and a dispersion of this population in this region that was shaped by human interference. This vector also occurs in MT and may influence the structure of POP2. This paper presents significant advances in the understanding of the population structure of L. infantum in Brazil and its association with eco-epidemiological aspects of VL

Many Labs 2: Investigating Variation in Replicability Across Samples and Settings

We conducted preregistered replications of 28 classic and contemporary published findings, with protocols that were peer reviewed in advance, to examine variation in effect magnitudes across samples and settings. Each protocol was administered to approximately half of 125 samples that comprised 15,305 participants from 36 countries and territories. Using the conventional criterion of statistical significance (p < .05), we found that 15 (54%) of the replications provided evidence of a statistically significant effect in the same direction as the original finding. With a strict significance criterion (p < .0001), 14 (50%) of the replications still provided such evidence, a reflection of the extremely highpowered design. Seven (25%) of the replications yielded effect sizes larger than the original ones, and 21 (75%) yielded effect sizes smaller than the original ones. The median comparable Cohen’s ds were 0.60 for the original findings and 0.15 for the replications. The effect sizes were small (< 0.20) in 16 of the replications (57%), and 9 effects (32%) were in the direction opposite the direction of the original effect. Across settings, the Q statistic indicated significant heterogeneity in 11 (39%) of the replication effects, and most of those were among the findings with the largest overall effect sizes; only 1 effect that was near zero in the aggregate showed significant heterogeneity according to this measure. Only 1 effect had a tau value greater than .20, an indication of moderate heterogeneity. Eight others had tau values near or slightly above .10, an indication of slight heterogeneity. Moderation tests indicated that very little heterogeneity was attributable to the order in which the tasks were performed or whether the tasks were administered in lab versus online. Exploratory comparisons revealed little heterogeneity between Western, educated, industrialized, rich, and democratic (WEIRD) cultures and less WEIRD cultures (i.e., cultures with relatively high and low WEIRDness scores, respectively). Cumulatively, variability in the observed effect sizes was attributable more to the effect being studied than to the sample or setting in which it was studied.UCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Sociales::Instituto de Investigaciones Psicológicas (IIP

Proportion reduction in HIV incidence in year 2020.

<p>For each model, the proportion reduction in HIV incidence in year 2020 for increasing access levels from 50% to 100% (horizontal axis). ART eligibility thresholds are indicated by line colour; 85% retention is indicated by solid lines, and perfect 100% retention is indicated by dashed lines.</p

Impact of treatment by transmission in each CD4 category.

<p>(A) The percentage of all HIV transmissions from individuals in each CD4 cell count category in year 2012, in the no-ART counterfactual simulation. (B) The reduction in incidence in year 2020, for the 80% access and 85% retention scenario, according to the cumulative proportion of transmission that occurs after eligibility (A). For the scenario where all HIV-positive adults are eligible (“all HIV+ eligible"), the percentage of transmission after ART eligibility is the percentage of transmission that occurs after the end of primary HIV infection. Colours for models are the same as in <a href="http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001245#pmed-1001245-g001" target="_blank">Figures 1</a> and <a href="http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001245#pmed-1001245-g002" target="_blank">2</a>. The BBH, Bendavid, and STI-HIV Interaction models do not estimate the proportion of transmission in each CD4 category and are not included in this figure.</p

Selected model outputs for counterfactual simulation with no ART.

a<p>Average annual growth rate for years 2012 to 2040.</p>b<p>Model calibrated to HIV epidemic in KwaZulu-Natal Province.</p

No-treatment counterfactual epidemic trends.

<p>Male (left) and female (right) HIV prevalence (top) and incidence (bottom) amongst 15- to 49-y-olds for counterfactual HIV epidemics with no ART. The STDSIM model is calibrated to a more severe epidemic in the Hlabisa subdistrict of KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa. The CD4 HIV/ART and Granich models do not stratify by sex, and the same prevalence and incidence curves are plotted for both sexes for these models. PYs, person-years.</p