Rapid UBVRI Follow-up of the Highly Collimated Optical Afterglow of GRB010222

(Abridged) We present the earliest optical observations of the optical counterpart to the GRB 010222, obtained with the FLWO 1.2-m telescope in UBVRI passbands, starting 3.64 hours after the burst. We also present late R-band observations of the afterglow obtained with the 1.8-m VATT ~25 days after the burst. The temporal analysis of our data joined with published data indicates a steepening decay, independent of wavelength, asymptotically approaching t^{-0.80+/-0.05} at early times (t << 1 day) and t^{-1.30+/-0.05} at late times, with a sharp break at t_b=0.72+/-0.1 days. This is the second earliest observed break of any afterglow (after GRB 980519), which clearly indicates the importance of rapid multi-band follow-up for GRB afterglow research. The optical spectral energy distribution, corrected for small Galactic reddening, can be fit fairly well by a single power-law with a slope of -1.07+/-0.09. However, when we fit using our BVRI data only, we obtain a shallower slope of -0.88+/- 0.1, in excellent agreement with the slope derived from our low-resolution spectrum (-0.89 +/- 0.03). The spectral slope and light curve decay slopes we derive are not consistent with a jet model despite the presence of a temporal break. Significant host dust extinction with a star-burst reddening law would flatten the spectral index to match jet predictions and still be consistent with the observed spectral energy distribution. We derive an opening angle of 2.1 deg, smaller than any listed in the recent compilation of Frail et al. The total beamed energy corrected for the jet geometry is 4x10^50 erg, very close to the ``standard'' value of 5x10^50 erg found by Frail et al. for a number of other bursts with light-curve breaks.Comment: revised version (minor changes only) to be published in the ApJ Part 1, 12 pages, 4 figures; all data used for the fits and our CCD frames available at ftp://cfa-ftp.harvard.edu/pub/kstanek/GRB010222/ and through WWW at http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/cfa/oir/Research/GRB

SN 2007uy - metamorphosis of an aspheric Type Ib explosion

The supernovae of Type Ibc are rare and the detailed characteristics of these explosions have been studied only for a few events. Unlike Type II SNe, the progenitors of Type Ibc have never been detected in pre-explosion images. So, to understand the nature of their progenitors and the characteristics of the explosions, investigation of proximate events are necessary. Here we present the results of multi-wavelength observations of Type Ib SN 2007uy in the nearby ($\sim$ 29.5 Mpc) galaxy NGC 2770. Analysis of the photometric observations revealed this explosion as an energetic event with peak absolute R band magnitude $-18.5\pm0.16$, which is about one mag brighter than the mean value ($-17.6\pm0.6$) derived for well observed Type Ibc events. The SN is highly extinguished, E(B-V) = 0.63$\pm$0.15 mag, mainly due to foreground material present in the host galaxy. From optical light curve modeling we determine that about 0.3 M$_{\odot}$ radioactive $^{56}$Ni is produced and roughly 4.4 M$_{\odot}$ material is ejected during this explosion with liberated energy $\sim 15\times10^{51}$ erg, indicating the event to be an energetic one. Through optical spectroscopy, we have noticed a clear aspheric evolution of several line forming regions, but no dependency of asymmetry is seen on the distribution of $^{56}$Ni inside the ejecta. The SN shock interaction with the circumburst material is clearly noticeable in radio follow-up, presenting a Synchrotron Self Absorption (SSA) dominated light curve with a contribution of Free Free Absorption (FFA) during the early phases. Assuming a WR star, with wind velocity \ga 10^3 {\rm km s}^{-1}, as a progenitor, we derive a lower limit to the mass loss rate inferred from the radio data as \dot{M} \ga 2.4\times10^{-5} M$_{\odot}$, yr$^{-1}$, which is consistent with the results obtained for other Type Ibc SNe bright at radio frequencies.Comment: 22 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Influenza-A Viruses in Ducks in Northwestern Minnesota: Fine Scale Spatial and Temporal Variation in Prevalence and Subtype Diversity

Waterfowl from northwestern Minnesota were sampled by cloacal swabbing for Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) from July – October in 2007 and 2008. AIV was detected in 222 (9.1%) of 2,441 ducks in 2007 and in 438 (17.9%) of 2,452 ducks in 2008. Prevalence of AIV peaked in late summer. We detected 27 AIV subtypes during 2007 and 31 during 2008. Ten hemagglutinin (HA) subtypes were detected each year (i.e., H1, 3–8, and 10–12 during 2007; H1-8, 10 and 11 during 2008). All neuraminidase (NA) subtypes were detected during each year of the study. Subtype diversity varied between years and increased with prevalence into September. Predominant subtypes during 2007 (comprising ≥5% of subtype diversity) included H1N1, H3N6, H3N8, H4N6, H7N3, H10N7, and H11N9. Predominant subtypes during 2008 included H3N6, H3N8, H4N6, H4N8, H6N1, and H10N7. Additionally, within each HA subtype, the same predominant HA/NA subtype combinations were detected each year and included H1N1, H3N8, H4N6, H5N2, H6N1, H7N3, H8N4, H10N7, and H11N9. The H2N3 and H12N5 viruses also predominated within the H2 and H12 subtypes, respectively, but only were detected during a single year (H2 and H12 viruses were not detected during 2007 and 2008, respectively). Mallards were the predominant species sampled (63.7% of the total), and 531 AIV were isolated from this species (80.5% of the total isolates). Mallard data collected during both years adequately described the observed temporal and spatial prevalence from the total sample and also adequately represented subtype diversity. Juvenile mallards also were adequate in describing the temporal and spatial prevalence of AIV as well as subtype diversity

Technical summary

The Working Group III (WGIII) contribution to the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) assesses literature on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects of mitigation of climate change. It builds upon the WGIII contribution to the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), the Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) and previous reports and incorporates subsequent new findings and research. Throughout, the focus is on the implications of its findings for policy, without being prescriptive about the particular policies that governments and other important participants in the policy process should adopt. In light of the IPCC's mandate, authors in WGIII were guided by several principles when assembling this assessment: (1) to be explicit about mitigation options, (2) to be explicit about their costs and about their risks and opportunities vis-a-vis other development priorities, (3) and to be explicit about the underlying criteria, concepts, and methods for evaluating alternative policies. This summary offers the main findings of the report

Pan-Cancer Analysis of lncRNA Regulation Supports Their Targeting of Cancer Genes in Each Tumor Context

Long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) are commonly dys-regulated in tumors, but only a handful are known toplay pathophysiological roles in cancer. We inferredlncRNAs that dysregulate cancer pathways, onco-genes, and tumor suppressors (cancer genes) bymodeling their effects on the activity of transcriptionfactors, RNA-binding proteins, and microRNAs in5,185 TCGA tumors and 1,019 ENCODE assays.Our predictions included hundreds of candidateonco- and tumor-suppressor lncRNAs (cancerlncRNAs) whose somatic alterations account for thedysregulation of dozens of cancer genes and path-ways in each of 14 tumor contexts. To demonstrateproof of concept, we showed that perturbations tar-geting OIP5-AS1 (an inferred tumor suppressor) andTUG1 and WT1-AS (inferred onco-lncRNAs) dysre-gulated cancer genes and altered proliferation ofbreast and gynecologic cancer cells. Our analysis in-dicates that, although most lncRNAs are dysregu-lated in a tumor-specific manner, some, includingOIP5-AS1, TUG1, NEAT1, MEG3, and TSIX, synergis-tically dysregulate cancer pathways in multiple tumorcontexts

Cross-National Analysis of the Associations between Traumatic Events and Suicidal Behavior: Findings from the WHO World Mental Health Surveys

Background Community and clinical data have suggested there is an association between trauma exposure and suicidal behavior (i.e., suicide ideation, plans and attempts). However, few studies have assessed which traumas are uniquely predictive of: the first onset of suicidal behavior, the progression from suicide ideation to plans and attempts, or the persistence of each form of suicidal behavior over time. Moreover, few data are available on such associations in developing countries. The current study addresses each of these issues.Methodology/Principal Findings Data on trauma exposure and subsequent first onset of suicidal behavior were collected via structured interviews conducted in the households of 102,245 (age 18+) respondents from 21 countries participating in the WHO World Mental Health Surveys. Bivariate and multivariate survival models tested the relationship between the type and number of traumatic events and subsequent suicidal behavior. A range of traumatic events are associated with suicidal behavior, with sexual and interpersonal violence consistently showing the strongest effects. There is a dose-response relationship between the number of traumatic events and suicide ideation/attempt; however, there is decay in the strength of the association with more events. Although a range of traumatic events are associated with the onset of suicide ideation, fewer events predict which people with suicide ideation progress to suicide plan and attempt, or the persistence of suicidal behavior over time. Associations generally are consistent across high-, middle-, and low-income countries.Conclusions/Significance This study provides more detailed information than previously available on the relationship between traumatic events and suicidal behavior and indicates that this association is fairly consistent across developed and developing countries. These data reinforce the importance of psychological trauma as a major public health problem, and highlight the significance of screening for the presence and accumulation of traumatic exposures as a risk factor for suicide ideation and attempt.African and African American StudiesPsycholog

Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. Methods We synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Worldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24.2-25.7) for men and 5.4% (5.1-5.7) for women, representing 28.4% (25.8-31.1) and 34.4% (29.4-38.6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11.5% of global deaths (6.4 million [95% UI 5.7-7.0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52.2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex and SDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smoking-attributable DALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015. Interpretation The pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies, development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should not be taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobacco industry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces are poised to heighten smoking's global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can be substantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, and adequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of political commitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography–year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4–61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5–72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7–17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5–70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6–5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8–18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6–16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9–14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1–44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7–51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8–34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3–37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000–183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000–532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Funding Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation