FGGE 4-dimensional data assimilation at ECMWF ( weather forecasts).

The 4-dimensional data-assimilation system used to produce the FGGE level III-b data set at the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is described. The system consists of a three-dimensional multivariate optimum interpolation, a nonlinear normal mode initialization, and associated automatic system for data checking. A 15-level model with a horizontal resolution of 1.875o is used for the dynamical assimilation. -from Author

Characterisation of large changes in wind power for the day-ahead market using a fuzzy logic approach

Wind power has become one of the renewable resources with a major growth in the electricity market. However, due to its inherent variability, forecasting techniques are necessary for the optimum scheduling of the electric grid, specially during ramp events. These large changes in wind power may not be captured by wind power point forecasts even with very high resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. In this paper, a fuzzy approach for wind power ramp characterisation is presented. The main benefit of this technique is that it avoids the binary definition of ramp event, allowing to identify changes in power out- put that can potentially turn into ramp events when the total percentage of change to be considered a ramp event is not met. To study the application of this technique, wind power forecasts were obtained and their corresponding error estimated using Genetic Programming (GP) and Quantile Regression Forests. The error distributions were incorporated into the characterisation process, which according to the results, improve significantly the ramp capture. Results are presented using colour maps, which provide a useful way to interpret the characteristics of the ramp events

GCIP water and energy budget synthesis (WEBS)

As part of the World Climate Research Program\u27s (WCRPs) Global Energy and Water-Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-scale International Project (GCIP), a preliminary water and energy budget synthesis (WEBS) was developed for the period 1996–1999 from the “best available” observations and models. Besides this summary paper, a companion CD-ROM with more extensive discussion, figures, tables, and raw data is available to the interested researcher from the GEWEX project office, the GAPP project office, or the first author. An updated online version of the CD-ROM is also available at http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/gcip/webs.htm/. Observations cannot adequately characterize or “close” budgets since too many fundamental processes are missing. Models that properly represent the many complicated atmospheric and near-surface interactions are also required. This preliminary synthesis therefore included a representative global general circulation model, regional climate model, and a macroscale hydrologic model as well as a global reanalysis and a regional analysis. By the qualitative agreement among the models and available observations, it did appear that we now qualitatively understand water and energy budgets of the Mississippi River Basin. However, there is still much quantitative uncertainty. In that regard, there did appear to be a clear advantage to using a regional analysis over a global analysis or a regional simulation over a global simulation to describe the Mississippi River Basin water and energy budgets. There also appeared to be some advantage to using a macroscale hydrologic model for at least the surface water budgets

Simulations of the 2004 North American Monsoon: NAMAP2

The second phase of the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) Model Assessment Project (NAMAP2) was carried out to provide a coordinated set of simulations from global and regional models of the 2004 warm season across the North American monsoon domain. This project follows an earlier assessment, called NAMAP, that preceded the 2004 field season of the North American Monsoon Experiment. Six global and four regional models are all forced with prescribed, time-varying ocean surface temperatures. Metrics for model simulation of warm season precipitation processes developed in NAMAP are examined that pertain to the seasonal progression and diurnal cycle of precipitation, monsoon onset, surface turbulent fluxes, and simulation of the low-level jet circulation over the Gulf of California. Assessment of the metrics is shown to be limited by continuing uncertainties in spatially averaged observations, demonstrating that modeling and observational analysis capabilities need to be developed concurrently. Simulations of the core subregion (CORE) of monsoonal precipitation in global models have improved since NAMAP, despite the lack of a proper low-level jet circulation in these simulations. Some regional models run at higher resolution still exhibit the tendency observed in NAMAP to overestimate precipitation in the CORE subregion; this is shown to involve both convective and resolved components of the total precipitation. The variability of precipitation in the Arizona/New Mexico (AZNM) subregion is simulated much better by the regional models compared with the global models, illustrating the importance of transient circulation anomalies (prescribed as lateral boundary conditions) for simulating precipitation in the northern part of the monsoon domain. This suggests that seasonal predictability derivable from lower boundary conditions may be limited in the AZNM subregion.open131

Recent Walker Circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming

An unprecedented strengthening of Pacific trade winds since the late 1990s (ref. 1) has caused widespread climate perturbations, including rapid sea-level rise in the western tropical Pacific, strengthening of Indo-Pacific ocean currents, and an increased uptake of heat in the equatorial Pacific thermocline. The corresponding intensification of the atmospheric Walker circulation is also associated with sea surface cooling in the eastern Pacific, which has been identified as one of the contributors to the current pause in global surface warming. In spite of recent progress in determining the climatic impacts of the Pacific trade wind acceleration, the cause of this pronounced trend in atmospheric circulation remains unknown. Here we analyse a series of climate model experiments along with observational data to show that the recent warming trend in Atlantic sea surface temperature and the corresponding trans-basin displacements of the main atmospheric pressure centres were key drivers of the observed Walker circulation intensification, eastern Pacific cooling, North American rainfall trends and western Pacific sea-level rise. Our study suggests that global surface warming has been partly offset by the Pacific climate response to enhanced Atlantic warming since the early 1990s

Development of New Ensemble Methods Based on the Performance Skills of Regional Climate Models over South Korea

In this paper, the prediction skills of five ensemble methods for temperature and precipitation are discussed by considering 20 yr of simulation results (from 1989 to 2008) for four regional climate models (RCMs) driven by NCEP-Department of Energy and ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) boundary conditions. The simulation domain is the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for East Asia. and the number of grid points is 197 x 233 with a 50-km horizontal resolution. Three new performance-based ensemble averaging (PEA) methods are developed in this study using 1) bias, root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) and absolute correlation (PEA_BRC). RMSE and absolute correlation (PEA RAC), and RMSE and original correlation (PEA_ROC). The other two ensemble methods are equal-weighted averaging (EWA) and multivariate linear regression (Mul_Reg). To derive the weighting coefficients and cross validate the prediction skills of the five ensemble methods. the authors considered 15-yr and 5-yr data, respectively, from the 20-yr simulation data. Among the five ensemble methods, the Mul_Reg (EWA) method shows the best (worst) skill during the training period. The PEA_RAC and PEA_ROC methods show skills that are similar to those of Mul_Reg during the training period. However, the skills and stabilities of Mul_Reg were drastically reduced when this method was applied to the prediction period. But, the skills and stabilities of PEA_RAC were only slightly reduced in this case. As a result. PEA RAC shows the best skill, irrespective of the seasons and variables, during the prediction period. This result confirms that the new ensemble method developed in this study. PEA_RAC. can be used for the prediction of regional climate.open7

Ocean water vapor and cloud liquid water trends from 1992 to 2005 TOPEX Microwave Radiometer data

The continuous 1992–2005 data set of the TOPEX Microwave Radiometer (TMR) has been reprocessed to provide global, zonal, and regional scale histories of overocean integrated water vapor (IWV) and cloud liquid water (CLW). Results indicate well-defined trends in IWV on global and hemisphere scales, with values of 1.8 ± 0.4%/decade (60°S–60°N), 2.4 ± 0.4%/decade (0–60°N), and 1.0 ± 0.5%/decade (0–60°S). The uncertainties represent 1 standard deviation of the regressed slope parameter adjusted for lag 1 autocorrelation. These results are comparable to earlier results based on analyses of the multiinstrument SSM/I ocean measurements beginning in 1988. For the 1992–2005 interval, comparisons between SSM/I- and TMR-derived IWV trends show remarkable agreement, with global trends differing by less than 0.3%/decade, comparable to the statistical uncertainty level and about one-sixth of the global TMR-derived trend. Latitudinal and regional analyses of IWV trends show large variability about the global mean, with synoptic scale variations of IWV trends ranging from ∼−8 to +8%/decade. Averaged over 5° latitude bands the IWV trends reveal a near zero minimum in the Southern Tropical Pacific and maximum values of ∼4%/decade over the 30–40N latitude band. Comparisons with band latitude averaged SST data over the same 1992–2005 interval roughly match a delta_IWV/delta_SST trend scaling of ∼11%/K, consistent with previously observed tropical and midlatitude seasonal variability. TMR-derived CLW trends are fractionally comparable to the IWV trends. The CLW values are 1.5 ± 0.6%/decade (60°S–60°N), 2.0 ± 0.8%/decade (0–60°N), and 1.1 ± 0.8%/decade (0–60°S). When scaled to global mean CLW derived from SSM/I and compared seasonally, the TMR CLW variations exhibit excellent tracking with the SSM/I results. Unlike IWV, however, the CLW statistical uncertainties do not likely reflect the dominant error component in the retrieved trends. The 1992–2005 CLW trend estimates were particularly sensitive to short-term trends in the first and last 2 years of the TMR archive. Additional errors difficult to quantify include strong aliasing effects from precipitation cells and uncertainties in the radiative transfer models utilized in the generation of the TMR CLW algorithm

Effect of anthropogenic sulphate aerosol in China on the drought in the western-to-central US

In recent decades, droughts have occurred in the western-to-central United States (US), significantly affecting food production, water supplies, ecosystem health, and the propagation of vector-borne diseases. Previous studies have suggested natural sea surface temperature (SST) forcing in the Pacific as the main driver of precipitation deficits in the US. Here, we show that the aerosol forcing in China, which has been known to alter the regional hydrological cycle in East Asia, may also contribute to reducing the precipitation in the western-to-central US through atmospheric teleconnections across the Pacific. Our model experiments show some indications that both the SST forcing and the increase in regional sulphate forcing in China play a similar role in modulating the western-to-central US precipitation, especially its long-term variation. This result indicates that regional air quality regulations in China have important implications for hydrological cycles in East Asia, as well as in the USopen1