Trajectory Model Validation Using Newly Developed Altitude-Controlled Balloons During the International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformations 2004 Campaign

During the summer of 2004, five altitude-controlled tracking balloons were flown as part of the International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformations (ICARTT) campaign. These Controlled Meteorological (CMET) balloons, newly developed at the University of Massachusetts, are notable for their light weight (∼1 kg mass), efficient altitude control, case of launch, long-duration flight capability, and ability to perform repeated quasi-Lagrangian soundings. The balloons were embedded in urban plumes from New York and Boston which they tracked over New England, eastern Canada, and the Atlantic Ocean while maintaining a nearly constant altitude. The flights ranged from 10 to 111 hours and covered a maximum distance of 3000 km. Balloon flight tracks are used here to assess the accuracy of trajectory models during intensive aircraft sampling periods. A new method is presented for increasing the number of available reference trajectories by dividing the balloon flights into shorter segments for statistical analysis. For trajectory durations between 2 and 12 hours, mean trajectory errors are found to be approximately 26% and 34% of the flight distance for ECMWF-based and GFS-based trajectories, respectively. Anomalously large model errors observed during three of the flights are found to be the result of a narrow low-level jet (15 July) and synoptic-scale flow patterns (9 and 10 August). The results from this study should be useful to researchers evaluating the performance of trajectory models and chemical transport models during the ICARTT campaign. Complete CMET balloon and model trajectory data sets are available as a supplement to this paper

P63 targeted deletion under the FOXN1 promoter disrupts pre-and post-natal thymus development, function and maintenance as well as induces severe hair loss

Progressive immune deficiency of aging is characterized by severe thymic atrophy, contracted T cell repertoire, and poor immune function. p63 is critical for the proliferative potential of embryonic and adult stem cells, as well as thymic epithelial cells (TECs). Because p63 null mice experience rapid post-natal lethality due to epidermal and limb morphogenesis defects, studies to define a role for p63 expression in TEC biology focused on embryonic thymus development and in vitro experiments. Since post-natal thymic stromal development and function differs from that of the embryo, we assessed the impact of lineage-restricted p63 loss on pre- and post-natal murine TEC function by generating mice with a loss of p63 function targeted to TEC, termed p63 TECko mice. In adult p63 TECko mice, severe thymic hypoplasia was observed with a lack in a discernable segregation into medullary and cortical compartments and peripheral T cell lymphopenia. This profound thymic defect was seen in both neonatal as well as embryonic p63 TECko mice. In addition to TECs, p63 also plays in important role in the development of stratified epithelium of the skin; lack of p63 results in defects in skin epidermal stratification and differentiation. Interestingly, all adult p63 TECko mice lacked hair follicles despite having normal p63 expression in the skin. Together our results show a critical role of TEC p63 in thymic development and maintenance and show that p63 expression is critical for hair follicle formation

State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)

The Seventeenth Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Surveys: Complete Release of MaNGA, MaStar and APOGEE-2 Data

This paper documents the seventeenth data release (DR17) from the Sloan Digital Sky Surveys; the fifth and final release from the fourth phase (SDSS-IV). DR17 contains the complete release of the Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) survey, which reached its goal of surveying over 10,000 nearby galaxies. The complete release of the MaNGA Stellar Library (MaStar) accompanies this data, providing observations of almost 30,000 stars through the MaNGA instrument during bright time. DR17 also contains the complete release of the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment 2 (APOGEE-2) survey which publicly releases infra-red spectra of over 650,000 stars. The main sample from the Extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS), as well as the sub-survey Time Domain Spectroscopic Survey (TDSS) data were fully released in DR16. New single-fiber optical spectroscopy released in DR17 is from the SPectroscipic IDentification of ERosita Survey (SPIDERS) sub-survey and the eBOSS-RM program. Along with the primary data sets, DR17 includes 25 new or updated Value Added Catalogs (VACs). This paper concludes the release of SDSS-IV survey data. SDSS continues into its fifth phase with observations already underway for the Milky Way Mapper (MWM), Local Volume Mapper (LVM) and Black Hole Mapper (BHM) surveys

Albiglutide and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (Harmony Outcomes): a double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial

Background: Glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists differ in chemical structure, duration of action, and in their effects on clinical outcomes. The cardiovascular effects of once-weekly albiglutide in type 2 diabetes are unknown. We aimed to determine the safety and efficacy of albiglutide in preventing cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke. Methods: We did a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial in 610 sites across 28 countries. We randomly assigned patients aged 40 years and older with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (at a 1:1 ratio) to groups that either received a subcutaneous injection of albiglutide (30–50 mg, based on glycaemic response and tolerability) or of a matched volume of placebo once a week, in addition to their standard care. Investigators used an interactive voice or web response system to obtain treatment assignment, and patients and all study investigators were masked to their treatment allocation. We hypothesised that albiglutide would be non-inferior to placebo for the primary outcome of the first occurrence of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke, which was assessed in the intention-to-treat population. If non-inferiority was confirmed by an upper limit of the 95% CI for a hazard ratio of less than 1·30, closed testing for superiority was prespecified. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02465515. Findings: Patients were screened between July 1, 2015, and Nov 24, 2016. 10 793 patients were screened and 9463 participants were enrolled and randomly assigned to groups: 4731 patients were assigned to receive albiglutide and 4732 patients to receive placebo. On Nov 8, 2017, it was determined that 611 primary endpoints and a median follow-up of at least 1·5 years had accrued, and participants returned for a final visit and discontinuation from study treatment; the last patient visit was on March 12, 2018. These 9463 patients, the intention-to-treat population, were evaluated for a median duration of 1·6 years and were assessed for the primary outcome. The primary composite outcome occurred in 338 (7%) of 4731 patients at an incidence rate of 4·6 events per 100 person-years in the albiglutide group and in 428 (9%) of 4732 patients at an incidence rate of 5·9 events per 100 person-years in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·78, 95% CI 0·68–0·90), which indicated that albiglutide was superior to placebo (p<0·0001 for non-inferiority; p=0·0006 for superiority). The incidence of acute pancreatitis (ten patients in the albiglutide group and seven patients in the placebo group), pancreatic cancer (six patients in the albiglutide group and five patients in the placebo group), medullary thyroid carcinoma (zero patients in both groups), and other serious adverse events did not differ between the two groups. There were three (<1%) deaths in the placebo group that were assessed by investigators, who were masked to study drug assignment, to be treatment-related and two (<1%) deaths in the albiglutide group. Interpretation: In patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease, albiglutide was superior to placebo with respect to major adverse cardiovascular events. Evidence-based glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists should therefore be considered as part of a comprehensive strategy to reduce the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes. Funding: GlaxoSmithKline

The Zwicky Transient Facility: System Overview, Performance, and First Results

The Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) is a new optical time-domain survey that uses the Palomar 48 inch Schmidt telescope. A custom-built wide-field camera provides a 47 deg^2 field of view and 8 s readout time, yielding more than an order of magnitude improvement in survey speed relative to its predecessor survey, the Palomar Transient Factory. We describe the design and implementation of the camera and observing system. The ZTF data system at the Infrared Processing and Analysis Center provides near-real-time reduction to identify moving and varying objects. We outline the analysis pipelines, data products, and associated archive. Finally, we present on-sky performance analysis and first scientific results from commissioning and the early survey. ZTF's public alert stream will serve as a useful precursor for that of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope

Projected changes in climate extremes over the northeastern United States

Projections of historical and future changes in climate extremes are examined by applying the bias-correction-spatial disaggregation (BCSD) statistical downscaling method to five general circulation models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). For this analysis, 11 extreme temperature and precipitation indices that are relevant across multiple disciplines (e.g., agriculture and conservation) are chosen. Over the historical period, the simulated means, variances, and cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of each of the 11 indices are first compared with observations, and the performance of the downscaling method is quantitatively evaluated. For the future period, the ensemble average of the five GCM simulations points to more warm extremes, fewer cold extremes, and more precipitation extremes with greater intensities under all three scenarios. The changes are larger under higher emissions scenarios. The inter-GCM uncertainties and changes in probability distributions are also assessed. Changes in the probability distributions indicate an in- crease in both the number and interannual variability of future climate extreme events. The potential deficiencies of the method in projecting future extremes are also discussed

Skillful Wintertime North American Temperature Forecasts out to 4 Weeks Based on the State of ENSO and the MJO*

ABSTRACT Previous work has shown that the combined influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) significantly impacts the wintertime circulation over North America for lead times up to at least 4 weeks. These findings suggest that both the MJO and ENSO may prove beneficial for generating a seamless prediction link between short-range deterministic forecasts and longer-range seasonal forecasts. To test the feasibility of this link, wintertime (December-March) probabilistic 2-m temperature (T2m) forecasts over North America are generated solely on the basis of the linear trend and statistical relationships with the initial state of the MJO and ENSO. Overall, such forecasts exhibit substantial skill for some regions and some initial states of the MJO and ENSO out to a lead time of approximately 4 weeks. In addition, the primary ENSO T2m regions of influence are nearly orthogonal to those of the MJO, which suggests that the MJO and ENSO generally excite different patterns within the continuum of large-scale atmospheric teleconnections. The strong forecast skill scores for some regions and initial states confirm the promise that information from the MJO and ENSO may offer forecasts of opportunity in weeks 3 and 4, which extend beyond the current 2-week extended-range outlooks of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), and an intraseasonal link to longer-range probabilistic forecasts