On the uncertainty of sea-ice isostasy

During late winter 2007, coincident measurements of sea ice were collected using various sensors at an ice camp in the Beaufort Sea, Canadian Arctic. Analysis of the archived data provides new insight into sea-ice isostasy and its related R-factor through case studies at three scales using different combinations of snow and ice thickness components. At the smallest scale (\u3c1 m; point scale), isostasy is not expected, so we calculate a residual and define this as �� (‘zjey’) to describe vertical displacement due to deformation. From 1 to 10 m length scales, we explore traditional isostasy and identify a specific sequence of thickness calculations which minimize freeboard and elevation uncertainty. An effective solution exists when the R-factor is allowed to vary: ranging from 2 to 12, with mean of 5.17, mode of 5.88 and skewed distribution. At regional scales, underwater, airborne and spaceborne platforms are always missing thickness variables from either above or below sea level. For such situations, realistic agreement is found by applying small-scale skewed ranges for the R-factor. These findings encourage a broader isostasy solution as a function of potential energy and length scale. Overall, results add insight to data collection strategies and metadata characteristics of different thickness products

Arctic sea-ice melt in 2008 and the role of solar heating

There has been a marked decline in the summer extent of Arctic sea ice over the past few decades. Data from autonomous ice mass-balance buoys can enhance our understanding of this decline. These buoys monitor changes in snow deposition and ablation, ice growth, and ice surface and bottom melt. Results from the summer of 2008 showed considerable large-scale spatial variability in the amount of surface and bottom melt. Small amounts of melting were observed north of Greenland, while melting in the southern Beaufort Sea was quite large. Comparison of net solar heat input to the ice and heat required for surface ablation showed only modest correlation. However, there was a strong correlation between solar heat input to the ocean and bottom melting. As the ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea region decreased, there was an increase in solar heat to the ocean and an increase in bottom melting

Evaluation of Operation IceBridge quick-look snow depth estimates on sea ice

We evaluate Operation IceBridge (OIB) ‘quick-look’ (QL) snow depth on sea ice retrievals using in situ measurements taken over immobile first-year ice (FYI) and multi-year ice (MYI) during March of 2014. Good agreement was found over undeformed FYI (-4.5 cm mean bias) with reduced agreement over deformed FYI (-6.6 cm mean bias). Over MYI, the mean bias was -5.7 cm but 54% of retrievals were discarded by the OIB retrieval process as compared to only 10% over FYI. Footprint scale analysis revealed a root mean square error (RMSE) of 6.2 cm over undeformed FYI with RMSE of 10.5 cm and 17.5 cm in the more complex deformed FYI and MYI environments. Correlation analysis was used to demonstrate contrasting retrieval uncertainty associated with spatial aggregation and ice surface roughness

Impact of spatial aliasing on sea-ice thickness measurements

We explore spatial aliasing of non-Gaussian distributions of sea-ice thickness. Using a heuristic model and \u3e1000 measurements, we show how different instrument footprint sizes and shapes can cluster thickness distributions into artificial modes, thereby distorting frequency distribution, making it difficult to compare and communicate information across spatial scales. This problem has not been dealt with systematically in sea ice until now, largely because it appears to incur no significant change in integrated thickness which often serves as a volume proxy. Concomitantly, demands are increasing for thickness distribution as a resource for modeling, monitoring and forecasting air–sea fluxes and growing human infrastructure needs in a changing polar environment. New demands include the characterization of uncertainties both regionally and seasonally for spaceborne, airborne, in situ and underwater measurements. To serve these growing needs, we quantify the impact of spatial aliasing by computing resolution error (Er) over a range of horizontal scales (x) from 5 to 500 m. Results are summarized through a power law (Er = bxm) with distinct exponents (m) from 0.3 to 0.5 using example mathematical functions including Gaussian, inverse linear and running mean filters. Recommendations and visualizations are provided to encourage discussion, new data acquisitions, analysis methods and metadata formats

Impact of spatial aliasing on sea-ice thickness measurements

We explore spatial aliasing of non-Gaussian distributions of sea-ice thickness. Using a heuristic model and \u3e1000 measurements, we show how different instrument footprint sizes and shapes can cluster thickness distributions into artificial modes, thereby distorting frequency distribution, making it difficult to compare and communicate information across spatial scales. This problem has not been dealt with systematically in sea ice until now, largely because it appears to incur no significant change in integrated thickness which often serves as a volume proxy. Concomitantly, demands are increasing for thickness distribution as a resource for modeling, monitoring and forecasting air–sea fluxes and growing human infrastructure needs in a changing polar environment. New demands include the characterization of uncertainties both regionally and seasonally for spaceborne, airborne, in situ and underwater measurements. To serve these growing needs, we quantify the impact of spatial aliasing by computing resolution error (Er) over a range of horizontal scales (x) from 5 to 500 m. Results are summarized through a power law (Er = bxm) with distinct exponents (m) from 0.3 to 0.5 using example mathematical functions including Gaussian, inverse linear and running mean filters. Recommendations and visualizations are provided to encourage discussion, new data acquisitions, analysis methods and metadata formats

Intercomparison of snow depth retrievals over Arctic sea ice from radar data acquired by Operation IceBridge

Since 2009, the ultra-wideband snow radar on Operation IceBridge (OIB; a NASA airborne mission to survey the polar ice covers) has acquired data in annual campaigns conducted during the Arctic and Antarctic springs. Progressive improvements in radar hardware and data processing methodologies have led to improved data quality for subsequent retrieval of snow depth. Existing retrieval algorithms differ in the way the air–snow (a–s) and snow–ice (s–i) interfaces are detected and localized in the radar returns and in how the system limitations are addressed (e.g., noise, resolution). In 2014, the Snow Thickness On Sea Ice Working Group (STOSIWG) was formed and tasked with investigating how radar data quality affects snow depth retrievals and how retrievals from the various algorithms differ. The goal is to understand the limitations of the estimates and to produce a well-documented, long-term record that can be used for understanding broader changes in the Arctic climate system. Here, we assess five retrieval algorithms by comparisons with field measurements from two ground-based campaigns, including the BRomine, Ozone, and Mercury EXperiment (BROMEX) at Barrow, Alaska; a field program by Environment and Climate Change Canada at Eureka, Nunavut; and available climatology and snowfall from ERA-Interim reanalysis. The aim is to examine available algorithms and to use the assessment results to inform the development of future approaches. We present results from these assessments and highlight key considerations for the production of a long-term, calibrated geophysical record of springtime snow thickness over Arctic sea ice

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)