Risk-conscious optimization model to support bioenergy investment in the Brazilian sugarcane industry

The past decades have seen a diversification of the sugarcane industry with the emergence of new technology to produce bioenergy from by-product and waste process streams. Given Brazil’s ambitious goal of reducing green-house gas emissions by over 40% below 2005 levels by 2030, it is of paramount importance to develop reliable decision-making systems in order to stimulate investment in these low-carbon technologies. This paper seeks to develop a more accurate optimization model to inform risk-conscious investment decisions for bioenergy generation capacity in sugarcane mills. The main objective is for the model to enable a better understanding of how Brazilian government policies, such as the electricity price in the regulated market, may impact these investments, by taking into account the uncertainty in sugar, ethanol and spot electricity markets and the interdependency between production and investment decisions in terms of saleable product mix. The proposed methodology combines portfolio optimization theory with superstructure process modeling and it relies on simple surrogates derived from a detailed sugarcane plant simulator to retain computational tractability and enable scenario analysis. The case study of an existing sugarcane plant is used to demonstrate the methodology and illustrate how the model can assist decision-makers. In all of the scenarios assessed, the model recommends investment in extra bioelectricity capacity via the anaerobic digestion of vinasse but advises against investment in second-generation ethanol production via the hydrolysis of surplus bagasse. Furthermore, the decision to upgrade the cogeneration system with a condensation turbine is highly sensitive to the electricity price practiced in the regulated market, capacity constraints on the sugar-ethanol mix, and the accepted level of risk. Another key insight drawn from the case study is that recent market conditions have favored a production focused on the sugar business, making it challenging for policy-makers to create attractive scenarios for biofuels. Long-term electricity contracting appears to be the main hedging strategy for de-risking other products and investments in the sugarcane business, provided it is priced adequately

T-Cell Memory Responses Elicited by Yellow Fever Vaccine are Targeted to Overlapping Epitopes Containing Multiple HLA-I and -II Binding Motifs

The yellow fever vaccines (YF-17D-204 and 17DD) are considered to be among the safest vaccines and the presence of neutralizing antibodies is correlated with protection, although other immune effector mechanisms are known to be involved. T-cell responses are known to play an important role modulating antibody production and the killing of infected cells. However, little is known about the repertoire of T-cell responses elicited by the YF-17DD vaccine in humans. In this report, a library of 653 partially overlapping 15-mer peptides covering the envelope (Env) and nonstructural (NS) proteins 1 to 5 of the vaccine was utilized to perform a comprehensive analysis of the virus-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell responses. The T-cell responses were screened ex-vivo by IFN-γ ELISPOT assays using blood samples from 220 YF-17DD vaccinees collected two months to four years after immunization. Each peptide was tested in 75 to 208 separate individuals of the cohort. The screening identified sixteen immunodominant antigens that elicited activation of circulating memory T-cells in 10% to 33% of the individuals. Biochemical in-vitro binding assays and immunogenetic and immunogenicity studies indicated that each of the sixteen immunogenic 15-mer peptides contained two or more partially overlapping epitopes that could bind with high affinity to molecules of different HLAs. The prevalence of the immunogenicity of a peptide in the cohort was correlated with the diversity of HLA-II alleles that they could bind. These findings suggest that overlapping of HLA binding motifs within a peptide enhances its T-cell immunogenicity and the prevalence of the response in the population. In summary, the results suggests that in addition to factors of the innate immunity, "promiscuous" T-cell antigens might contribute to the high efficacy of the yellow fever vaccines. © 2013 de Melo et al

The use of phylogeny to interpret cross-cultural patterns in plant use and guide medicinal plant discovery: an example from Pterocarpus (Leguminosae)

The study of traditional knowledge of medicinal plants has led to discoveries that have helped combat diseases and improve healthcare. However, the development of quantitative measures that can assist our quest for new medicinal plants has not greatly advanced in recent years. Phylogenetic tools have entered many scientific fields in the last two decades to provide explanatory power, but have been overlooked in ethnomedicinal studies. Several studies show that medicinal properties are not randomly distributed in plant phylogenies, suggesting that phylogeny shapes ethnobotanical use. Nevertheless, empirical studies that explicitly combine ethnobotanical and phylogenetic information are scarce.In this study, we borrowed tools from community ecology phylogenetics to quantify significance of phylogenetic signal in medicinal properties in plants and identify nodes on phylogenies with high bioscreening potential. To do this, we produced an ethnomedicinal review from extensive literature research and a multi-locus phylogenetic hypothesis for the pantropical genus Pterocarpus (Leguminosae: Papilionoideae). We demonstrate that species used to treat a certain conditions, such as malaria, are significantly phylogenetically clumped and we highlight nodes in the phylogeny that are significantly overabundant in species used to treat certain conditions. These cross-cultural patterns in ethnomedicinal usage in Pterocarpus are interpreted in the light of phylogenetic relationships.This study provides techniques that enable the application of phylogenies in bioscreening, but also sheds light on the processes that shape cross-cultural ethnomedicinal patterns. This community phylogenetic approach demonstrates that similar ethnobotanical uses can arise in parallel in different areas where related plants are available. With a vast amount of ethnomedicinal and phylogenetic information available, we predict that this field, after further refinement of the techniques, will expand into similar research areas, such as pest management or the search for bioactive plant-based compounds

Acanthus montanus: An experimental evaluation of the antimicrobial, anti-inflammatory and immunological properties of a traditional remedy for furuncles

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p><it>Acanthus montanus </it>(Nees) T. Anderson (Acanthaceae) is a shrub widespread in Africa, the Balkans, Romania, Greece and Eastern Mediterranean. It is used in African traditional medicine for the treatment of urogenital infections, urethral pain, endometritis, urinary disease, cystitis, leucorrhoea, aches and pains. In southeastern Nigeria, the root is popular and acclaimed highly effective in the treatment of furuncles. This study was undertaken to experimentally evaluate the antimicrobial and anti-inflammatory properties of the root extract as well as its effect on phagocytosis and specific cell-mediated immune response which may underlie the usefulness of the roots in treatment of furuncles.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The aqueous root extract (obtained by hot water maceration of the root powder) was studied for effects on the growth of clinically isolated strains of <it>Pseudomonas aeruginosa </it>and <it>Staphylococcus aureus</it>. The anti-inflammatory activity was investigated using acute topical edema of the mouse ear induced by xylene, acute paw edema induced by agar in rats, formaldehyde arthritis in rats, vascular permeability induced by acetic acid in mice and heat- and hypotonicity-induced haemolysis of ox red blood cells (RBCs). Also evaluated were the effects on <it>in vivo </it>leukocyte migration induced by agar, phagocytic activity of macrophages on <it>Candida albicans </it>and specific cell-mediated immune responses (delayed type hypersensitivity reaction (DTHR) induced by sheep red blood cell (SRBC)). The acute toxicity and lethality (LD₅₀) in mice and phytochemical constituents of the extract were also determined.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The extract moderately inhibited the growth of the test organisms and significantly (<it>P </it>< 0.05) inhibited (57%) topical acute edema in the mouse ear. It significantly (<it>P </it>< 0.05) suppressed the development of acute edema of the rat paw in a non-dose-related manner and was not effective in inhibiting the global edematous response to formaldehyde arthritis. It also inhibited vascular permeability induced by acetic acid in mice and the haemolysis of ox RBCs induced by heat- and hypotonicity. The extract increased total leukocyte and neutrophil counts and caused a significant (<it>P </it>< 0.05) dose-related increase in the total number of macrophages at the 800 mg/kg dose. On phagocytic activity, the extract evoked a significant (<it>P </it>< 0.05) increase in the number of macrophages with ingested <it>C. albicans </it>at 800 mg/kg dose, and significantly (<it>P </it>< 0.05) inhibited DTHR in a dose-related manner. Phytochemical tests on the extract revealed an abundant presence of alkaloids and carbohydrates while saponins, glycosides, and terpenoids occurred in trace amounts. Acute toxicity test established an oral and intraperitoneal LD₅₀greater than 5,000 mg/kg.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The effectiveness of the root of <it>A. montanus </it>in the treatment of furuncles may largely derive from mobilization of leukocytes to the site of the infection and activation of phagocytic activity as well as suppression of exacerbated immune responses by its constituents. Antimicrobial and anti-inflammatory activities are likely contributory mechanisms. Phytochemical constituents such as alkaloids and carbohydrates may be responsible for these pharmacological activities.</p

Edge-Related Loss of Tree Phylogenetic Diversity in the Severely Fragmented Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Deforestation and forest fragmentation are known major causes of nonrandom extinction, but there is no information about their impact on the phylogenetic diversity of the remaining species assemblages. Using a large vegetation dataset from an old hyper-fragmented landscape in the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest we assess whether the local extirpation of tree species and functional impoverishment of tree assemblages reduce the phylogenetic diversity of the remaining tree assemblages. We detected a significant loss of tree phylogenetic diversity in forest edges, but not in core areas of small (<80 ha) forest fragments. This was attributed to a reduction of 11% in the average phylogenetic distance between any two randomly chosen individuals from forest edges; an increase of 17% in the average phylogenetic distance to closest non-conspecific relative for each individual in forest edges; and to the potential manifestation of late edge effects in the core areas of small forest remnants. We found no evidence supporting fragmentation-induced phylogenetic clustering or evenness. This could be explained by the low phylogenetic conservatism of key life-history traits corresponding to vulnerable species. Edge effects must be reduced to effectively protect tree phylogenetic diversity in the severely fragmented Brazilian Atlantic forest

Trypanosoma brucei Modifies the Tsetse Salivary Composition, Altering the Fly Feeding Behavior That Favors Parasite Transmission

Tsetse flies are the notorious transmitters of African trypanosomiasis, a disease caused by the Trypanosoma parasite that affects humans and livestock on the African continent. Metacyclic infection rates in natural tsetse populations with Trypanosoma brucei, including the two human-pathogenic subspecies, are very low, even in epidemic situations. Therefore, the infected fly/host contact frequency is a key determinant of the transmission dynamics. As an obligate blood feeder, tsetse flies rely on their complex salivary potion to inhibit host haemostatic reactions ensuring an efficient feeding. The results of this experimental study suggest that the parasite might promote its transmission through manipulation of the tsetse feeding behavior by modifying the saliva composition. Indeed, salivary gland Trypanosoma brucei-infected flies display a significantly prolonged feeding time, thereby enhancing the likelihood of infecting multiple hosts during the process of a single blood meal cycle. Comparison of the two major anti-haemostatic activities i.e. anti-platelet aggregation and anti-coagulation activity in these flies versus non-infected tsetse flies demonstrates a significant suppression of these activities as a result of the trypanosome-infection status. This effect was mainly related to the parasite-induced reduction in salivary gland gene transcription, resulting in a strong decrease in protein content and related biological activities. Additionally, the anti-thrombin activity and inhibition of thrombin-induced coagulation was even more severely hampered as a result of the trypanosome infection. Indeed, while naive tsetse saliva strongly inhibited human thrombin activity and thrombin-induced blood coagulation, saliva from T. brucei-infected flies showed a significantly enhanced thrombinase activity resulting in a far less potent anti-coagulation activity. These data clearly provide evidence for a trypanosome-mediated modification of the tsetse salivary composition that results in a drastically reduced anti-haemostatic potential and a hampered feeding performance which could lead to an increase of the vector/host contact and parasite transmission in field conditions

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Measurement of the Z/gamma* + b-jet cross section in pp collisions at 7 TeV

The production of b jets in association with a Z/gamma* boson is studied using proton-proton collisions delivered by the LHC at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV and recorded by the CMS detector. The inclusive cross section for Z/gamma* + b-jet production is measured in a sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.2 inverse femtobarns. The Z/gamma* + b-jet cross section with Z/gamma* to ll (where ll = ee or mu mu) for events with the invariant mass 60 < M(ll) < 120 GeV, at least one b jet at the hadron level with pT > 25 GeV and abs(eta) < 2.1, and a separation between the leptons and the jets of Delta R > 0.5 is found to be 5.84 +/- 0.08 (stat.) +/- 0.72 (syst.) +(0.25)/-(0.55) (theory) pb. The kinematic properties of the events are also studied and found to be in agreement with the predictions made by the MadGraph event generator with the parton shower and the hadronisation performed by PYTHIA.Comment: Submitted to the Journal of High Energy Physic