Sensitivity analysis as an aid in modelling and control of (poorly-defined) ecological systems

A literature review of the use of sensitivity analyses in modelling nonlinear, ill-defined systems, such as ecological interactions is presented. Discussions of previous work, and a proposed scheme for generalized sensitivity analysis applicable to ill-defined systems are included. This scheme considers classes of mathematical models, problem-defining behavior, analysis procedures (especially the use of Monte-Carlo methods), sensitivity ranking of parameters, and extension to control system design

Controls on nitrogen cycling in terrestrial ecosystems : a synthetic analysis of literature data

Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2005. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecological Monographs 75 (2005): 139–157, doi:10.1890/04-0988.Isotope pool dilution studies are increasingly reported in the soils and ecology literature as a means of measuring gross rates of nitrogen (N) mineralization, nitrification, and inorganic N assimilation in soils. We assembled data on soil characteristics and gross rates from 100 studies conducted in forest, shrubland, grassland, and agricultural systems to answer the following questions: What factors appear to be the major drivers for production and consumption of inorganic N as measured by isotope dilution studies? Do rates or the relationships between drivers and rates differ among ecosystem types? Across a wide range of ecosystems, gross N mineralization is positively correlated with microbial biomass and soil C and N concentrations, while soil C:N ratio exerts a negative effect on N mineralization only after adjusting for differences in soil C. Nitrification is a log-linear function of N mineralization, increasing rapidly at low mineralization rates but changing only slightly at high mineralization rates. In contrast, NH4+ assimilation by soil microbes increases nearly linearly over the full range of mineralization rates. As a result, nitrification is proportionately more important as a fate for NH4+ at low mineralization rates than at high mineralization rates. Gross nitrification rates show no relationship to soil pH, with some of the fastest nitrification rates occurring below pH 5 in soils with high N mineralization rates. Differences in soil organic matter (SOM) composition and concentration among ecosystem types influence the production and fate of mineralized N. Soil organic matter from grasslands appears to be inherently more productive of ammonium than SOM from wooded sites, and SOM from deciduous forests is more so than SOM in coniferous forests, but differences appear to result primarily from differing C:N ratios of organic matter. Because of the central importance of SOM characteristics and concentrations in regulating rates, soil organic matter depletion in agricultural systems appears to be an important determinant of gross process rates and the proportion of NH4+ that is nitrified. Addition of 15N appears to stimulate NH4+ consumption more than NO3− consumption processes; however, the magnitude of the stimulation may provide useful information regarding the factors limiting microbial N transformations.This research was supported by a grant from The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation to The Ecosystems Center of the Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, and by a grant from the National Science Foundation to Utah State University, Logan, Utah

Potential net primary productivity in South America: application of a global model

We use a mechanistically based ecosystem simulation model to describe and analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) in South America. The Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) is designed to predict major carbon and nitrogen fluxes and pool sizes in terrestrial ecosystems at continental to global scales. Information from intensively studies field sites is used in combination with continental—scale information on climate, soils, and vegetation to estimate NPP in each of 5888 non—wetland, 0.5° latitude °0.5° longitude grid cells in South America, at monthly time steps. Preliminary analyses are presented for the scenario of natural vegetation throughout the continent, as a prelude to evaluating human impacts on terrestrial NPP. The potential annual NPP of South America is estimated to be 12.5 Pg/yr of carbon (26.3 Pg/yr of organic matter) in a non—wetland area of 17.0 ° 106 km2. More than 50% of this production occurs in the tropical and subtropical evergreen forest region. Six independent model runs, each based on an independently derived set of model parameters, generated mean annual NPP estimates for the tropical evergreen forest region ranging from 900 to 1510 g°m—2°yr—1 of carbon, with an overall mean of 1170 g°m—2°yr—1. Coefficients of variation in estimated annual NPP averaged 20% for any specific location in the evergreen forests, which is probably within the confidence limits of extant NPP measurements. Predicted rates of mean annual NPP in other types of vegetation ranged from 95 g°m—2°yr—1 in arid shrublands to 930 g°m@?yr—1 in savannas, and were within the ranges measured in empirical studies. The spatial distribution of predicted NPP was directly compared with estimates made using the Miami mode of Lieth (1975). Overall, TEM predictions were °10% lower than those of the Miami model, but the two models agreed closely on the spatial patterns of NPP in south America. Unlike previous models, however, TEM estimates NPP monthly, allowing for the evaluation of seasonal phenomena. This is an important step toward integration of ecosystem models with remotely sensed information, global climate models, and atmospheric transport models, all of which are evaluated at comparable spatial and temporal scales. Seasonal patterns of NPP in South America are correlated with moisture availability in most vegetation types, but are strongly influenced by seasonal differences in cloudiness in the tropical evergreen forests. On an annual basis, moisture availability was the factor that was correlated most strongly with annual NPP in South America, but differences were again observed among vegetation types. These results allow for the investigation and analysis of climatic controls over NPP at continental scales, within and among vegetation types, and within years. Further model validation is needed. Nevertheless, the ability to investigate NPP—environment interactions with a high spatial and temporal resolution at continental scales should prove useful if not essential for rigorous analysis of the potential effects of global climate changes on terrestrial ecosystems

Nitrogen dynamics in a small arctic watershed: retention and downhill movement of 15N

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecological Monographs 80 (2010): 331-351, doi:10.1890/08-0773.1.We examined short- and long-term nitrogen (N) dynamics and availability along an arctic hillslope in Alaska, USA, using stable isotope of nitrogen (15N), as a tracer. Tracer levels of 15NH4+ were sprayed once onto the tundra at six sites in four tundra types; heath (crest), tussock with high and low water flux (mid- and foot-slope), and wet sedge (riparian). 15N in vegetation and soil was monitored to estimate retention and loss over a 3-yr period. Nearly all 15NH4+ was immediately retained in the surface moss-detritus-plant layer and > 57 % of the 15N added remained in this layer at the end of the second year. Organic soil was the second largest 15N sink. By the end of the third growing season, the moss-detritus-plant layer and organic soil combined retained ≥ 87 % of the 15N added except at the mid-slope site with high water flux, where recovery declined to 68 %. At all sites, non-extractable and non-labile-N pools were the principal sinks for added 15N in the organic soil. Hydrology played an important role in downslope movement of dissolved 15N. Crest and mid-slope with high water flux sites were most susceptible to 15N losses via leaching perhaps because of deep permeable mineral soil (crest) and high water flow (mid-slope with high water flux). Late spring melt-season also resulted in downslope dissolved-15N losses, perhaps because of an asynchrony between N release into melt water and soil immobilization capacity. We conclude that separation of the rooting zone from the strong sink for incoming N in the moss detritus-plant layer, rapid incorporation of new N into relatively recalcitrant soil-N pools within the rooting zone, and leaching loss from the upper hillslope would all contribute to the strong N limitation of this ecosystem. An extended snow-free season and deeper depth of thaw under warmer climate may significantly alter current N dynamics in this arctic ecosystem.Funding was provided by NSF grant #0444592. Additional support was provided by Toolik Field Station Long Term Ecological Research program, funded by National Science Foundation, Office of Polar Programs

Time lags: insights from the U.S. Long Term Ecological Research Network

Ecosystems across the United States are changing in complex ways that are difficult to predict. Coordinated long-term research and analysis are required to assess how these changes will affect a diverse array of ecosystem services. This paper is part of a series that is a product of a synthesis effort of the U.S. National Science Foundation’s Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) network. This effort revealed that each LTER site had at least one compelling scientific case study about “what their site would look like” in 50 or 100 yr. As the site results were prepared, themes emerged, and the case studies were grouped into separate papers along five themes: state change, connectivity, resilience, time lags, and cascading effects and compiled into this special issue. This paper addresses the time lags theme with five examples from diverse biomes including tundra (Arctic), coastal upwelling (California Current Ecosystem), montane forests (Coweeta), and Everglades freshwater and coastal wetlands (Florida Coastal Everglades) LTER sites. Its objective is to demonstrate the importance of different types of time lags, in different kinds of ecosystems, as drivers of ecosystem structure and function and how these can effectively be addressed with long-term studies. The concept that slow, interactive, compounded changes can have dramatic effects on ecosystem structure, function, services, and future scenarios is apparent in many systems, but they are difficult to quantify and predict. The case studies presented here illustrate the expanding scope of thinking about time lags within the LTER network and beyond. Specifically, they examine what variables are best indicators of lagged changes in arctic tundra, how progressive ocean warming can have profound effects on zooplankton and phytoplankton in waters off the California coast, how a series of species changes over many decades can affect Eastern deciduous forests, and how infrequent, extreme cold spells and storms can have enduring effects on fish populations and wetland vegetation along the Southeast coast and the Gulf of Mexico. The case studies highlight the need for a diverse set of LTER (and other research networks) sites to sort out the multiple components of time lag effects in ecosystems

Analyzing the discharge regime of a large tropical river through remote sensing, ground-based climatic data, and modeling

This study demonstrates the potential for applying passive microwave satellite sensor data to infer the discharge dynamics of large river systems using the main stem Amazon as a test case. The methodology combines (1) interpolated ground-based meteorological station data, (2) horizontally and vertically polarized temperature differences (HVPTD) from the 37-GHz scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) aboard the Nimbus 7 satellite, and (3) a calibrated water balance/water transport model (WBM/WTM). Monthly HVPTD values at 0.25° (latitude by longitude) resolution were resampled spatially and temporally to produce an enhanced HVPTD time series at 0.5° resolution for the period May 1979 through February 1985. Enhanced HVPTD values were regressed against monthly discharge derived from the WBM/WTM for each of 40 grid cells along the main stem over a calibration period from May 1979 to February 1983 to provide a spatially contiguous estimate of time-varying discharge. HVPTD-estimated flows generated for a validation period from March 1983 to February 1985 were found to be in good agreement with both observed arid modeled discharges over a 1400-km section of the main stem Amazon. This span of river is bounded downstream by a region of tidal influence and upstream by low sensor response associated with dense forest canopy. Both the WBM/WTM and HVPTD-derived flow rates reflect the significant impact of the 1982–1983 El Niño-;Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event on water balances within the drainage basin

The effects of CO2, climate and land-use on terrestrial carbon balance, 1920-1992: An analysis with four process-based ecosystem models

The concurrent effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate variability, and cropland establishment and abandonment on terrestrial carbon storage between 1920 and 1992 were assessed using a standard simulation protocol with four process-based terrestrial biosphere models. Over the long-term(1920–1992), the simulations yielded a time history of terrestrial uptake that is consistent (within the uncertainty) with a long-term analysis based on ice core and atmospheric CO2 data. Up to 1958, three of four analyses indicated a net release of carbon from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere caused by cropland establishment. After 1958, all analyses indicate a net uptake of carbon by terrestrial ecosystems, primarily because of the physiological effects of rapidly rising atmospheric CO2. During the 1980s the simulations indicate that terrestrial ecosystems stored between 0.3 and 1.5 Pg C yr−1, which is within the uncertainty of analysis based on CO2 and O2 budgets. Three of the four models indicated (in accordance with O2 evidence) that the tropics were approximately neutral while a net sink existed in ecosystems north of the tropics. Although all of the models agree that the long-term effect of climate on carbon storage has been small relative to the effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 and land use, the models disagree as to whether climate variability and change in the twentieth century has promoted carbon storage or release. Simulated interannual variability from 1958 generally reproduced the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-scale variability in the atmospheric CO2 increase, but there were substantial differences in the magnitude of interannual variability simulated by the models. The analysis of the ability of the models to simulate the changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 suggested that the observed trend may be a consequence of CO2 effects, climate variability, land use changes, or a combination of these effects. The next steps for improving the process-based simulation of historical terrestrial carbon include (1) the transfer of insight gained from stand-level process studies to improve the sensitivity of simulated carbon storage responses to changes in CO2 and climate, (2) improvements in the data sets used to drive the models so that they incorporate the timing, extent, and types of major disturbances, (3) the enhancement of the models so that they consider major crop types and management schemes, (4) development of data sets that identify the spatial extent of major crop types and management schemes through time, and (5) the consideration of the effects of anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. The evaluation of the performance of the models in the context of a more complete consideration of the factors influencing historical terrestrial carbon dynamics is important for reducing uncertainties in representing the role of terrestrial ecosystems in future projections of the Earth system

Estimating uncertainty in ecosystem budget calculations

© The Authors, 2010. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial License. The definitive version was published in Ecosystems 13 (2010): 239-248, doi:10.1007/s10021-010-9315-8.Ecosystem nutrient budgets often report values for pools and fluxes without any indication of uncertainty, which makes it difficult to evaluate the significance of findings or make comparisons across systems. We present an example, implemented in Excel, of a Monte Carlo approach to estimating error in calculating the N content of vegetation at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire. The total N content of trees was estimated at 847 kg ha−1 with an uncertainty of 8%, expressed as the standard deviation divided by the mean (the coefficient of variation). The individual sources of uncertainty were as follows: uncertainty in allometric equations (5%), uncertainty in tissue N concentrations (3%), uncertainty due to plot variability (6%, based on a sample of 15 plots of 0.05 ha), and uncertainty due to tree diameter measurement error (0.02%). In addition to allowing estimation of uncertainty in budget estimates, this approach can be used to assess which measurements should be improved to reduce uncertainty in the calculated values. This exercise was possible because the uncertainty in the parameters and equations that we used was made available by previous researchers. It is important to provide the error statistics with regression results if they are to be used in later calculations; archiving the data makes resampling analyses possible for future researchers. When conducted using a Monte Carlo framework, the analysis of uncertainty in complex calculations does not have to be difficult and should be standard practice when constructing ecosystem budgets

Am I the right candidate? Self-ascribed fit of women and men to a leadership position

Women are assumed to show a self-ascribed lack-of-fit to leadership positions compared to men (Heilman, 1983). The present study examined whether this gender difference would diminish when agency is accounted for and whether a stimulus person’s gender would alter women’s self-ascribed fit. German management students (91 women, 95 men) received a fictitious recruitment advertisement for a leadership position that portrayed a man, a woman, or both a man and a woman. Participants indicated their perceptions of agency and suitability to the advertised position. As predicted, women judged themselves as less suitable for the leadership position than men and participants’ self-reported agency mediated this effect. Furthermore, all participants felt most suitable if a male and a female stimulus person were portrayed