Introspective Perception for Mobile Robots

Perception algorithms that provide estimates of their uncertainty are crucial to the development of autonomous robots that can operate in challenging and uncontrolled environments. Such perception algorithms provide the means for having risk-aware robots that reason about the probability of successfully completing a task when planning. There exist perception algorithms that come with models of their uncertainty; however, these models are often developed with assumptions, such as perfect data associations, that do not hold in the real world. Hence the resultant estimated uncertainty is a weak lower bound. To tackle this problem we present introspective perception - a novel approach for predicting accurate estimates of the uncertainty of perception algorithms deployed on mobile robots. By exploiting sensing redundancy and consistency constraints naturally present in the data collected by a mobile robot, introspective perception learns an empirical model of the error distribution of perception algorithms in the deployment environment and in an autonomously supervised manner. In this paper, we present the general theory of introspective perception and demonstrate successful implementations for two different perception tasks. We provide empirical results on challenging real-robot data for introspective stereo depth estimation and introspective visual simultaneous localization and mapping and show that they learn to predict their uncertainty with high accuracy and leverage this information to significantly reduce state estimation errors for an autonomous mobile robot

Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Funding: F Carvalho and E Fernandes acknowledge support from Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P. (FCT), in the scope of the project UIDP/04378/2020 and UIDB/04378/2020 of the Research Unit on Applied Molecular Biosciences UCIBIO and the project LA/P/0140/2020 of the Associate Laboratory Institute for Health and Bioeconomy i4HB; FCT/MCTES through the project UIDB/50006/2020. J Conde acknowledges the European Research Council Starting Grant (ERC-StG-2019-848325). V M Costa acknowledges the grant SFRH/BHD/110001/2015, received by Portuguese national funds through Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT), IP, under the Norma Transitória DL57/2016/CP1334/CT0006.proofepub_ahead_of_prin

The global, regional, and national burden of adult lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancer in 204 countries and territories:A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Importance Lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancers are important contributors to cancer burden worldwide, and a comprehensive evaluation of their burden globally, regionally, and nationally is crucial for effective policy planning.Objective To analyze the total and risk-attributable burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) and other pharyngeal cancer (OPC) for 204 countries and territories and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates.Evidence Review The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to LOC and OPC from 1990 to 2019 were estimated using GBD 2019 methods. The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of deaths and DALYs for LOC and OPC attributable to smoking, tobacco, and alcohol consumption in 2019.Findings In 2019, 370 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 338 000-401 000) cases and 199 000 (95% UI, 181 000-217 000) deaths for LOC and 167 000 (95% UI, 153 000-180 000) cases and 114 000 (95% UI, 103 000-126 000) deaths for OPC were estimated to occur globally, contributing 5.5 million (95% UI, 5.0-6.0 million) and 3.2 million (95% UI, 2.9-3.6 million) DALYs, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, low-middle and low SDI regions consistently showed the highest age-standardized mortality rates due to LOC and OPC, while the high SDI strata exhibited age-standardized incidence rates decreasing for LOC and increasing for OPC. Globally in 2019, smoking had the greatest contribution to risk-attributable OPC deaths for both sexes (55.8% [95% UI, 49.2%-62.0%] of all OPC deaths in male individuals and 17.4% [95% UI, 13.8%-21.2%] of all OPC deaths in female individuals). Smoking and alcohol both contributed to substantial LOC deaths globally among male individuals (42.3% [95% UI, 35.2%-48.6%] and 40.2% [95% UI, 33.3%-46.8%] of all risk-attributable cancer deaths, respectively), while chewing tobacco contributed to the greatest attributable LOC deaths among female individuals (27.6% [95% UI, 21.5%-33.8%]), driven by high risk-attributable burden in South and Southeast Asia.Conclusions and Relevance In this systematic analysis, disparities in LOC and OPC burden existed across the SDI spectrum, and a considerable percentage of burden was attributable to tobacco and alcohol use. These estimates can contribute to an understanding of the distribution and disparities in LOC and OPC burden globally and support cancer control planning efforts

Global burden of chronic respiratory diseases and risk factors, 1990–2019: an update from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Updated data on chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) are vital in their prevention, control, and treatment in the path to achieving the third UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030. We provided global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of CRDs and their attributable risks from 1990 to 2019. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we estimated mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), prevalence, and incidence of CRDs, i.e. chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, pneumoconiosis, interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis, and other CRDs, from 1990 to 2019 by sex, age, region, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) in 204 countries and territories. Deaths and DALYs from CRDs attributable to each risk factor were estimated according to relative risks, risk exposure, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level input. Findings: In 2019, CRDs were the third leading cause of death responsible for 4.0 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 3.6–4.3) with a prevalence of 454.6 million cases (417.4–499.1) globally. While the total deaths and prevalence of CRDs have increased by 28.5% and 39.8%, the age-standardised rates have dropped by 41.7% and 16.9% from 1990 to 2019, respectively. COPD, with 212.3 million (200.4–225.1) prevalent cases, was the primary cause of deaths from CRDs, accounting for 3.3 million (2.9–3.6) deaths. With 262.4 million (224.1–309.5) prevalent cases, asthma had the highest prevalence among CRDs. The age-standardised rates of all burden measures of COPD, asthma, and pneumoconiosis have reduced globally from 1990 to 2019. Nevertheless, the age-standardised rates of incidence and prevalence of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis have increased throughout this period. Low- and low-middle SDI countries had the highest age-standardised death and DALYs rates while the high SDI quintile had the highest prevalence rate of CRDs. The highest deaths and DALYs from CRDs were attributed to smoking globally, followed by air pollution and occupational risks. Non-optimal temperature and high body-mass index were additional risk factors for COPD and asthma, respectively. Interpretation: Albeit the age-standardised prevalence, death, and DALYs rates of CRDs have decreased, they still cause a substantial burden and deaths worldwide. The high death and DALYs rates in low and low-middle SDI countries highlights the urgent need for improved preventive, diagnostic, and therapeutic measures. Global strategies for tobacco control, enhancing air quality, reducing occupational hazards, and fostering clean cooking fuels are crucial steps in reducing the burden of CRDs, especially in low- and lower-middle income countries

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

Background Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time. Methods For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dosespecific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in countryreported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development. Findings By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81.6% [95% uncertainty interval 80.4-82 .7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39.9% [37.5-42.1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38.5% [35.4-41.3] in 1980 to 83.6% [82.3-84.8] in 2019). Third- dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42.6% (41.4-44.1) in 1980 to 79.8% (78.4-81.1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56.8 million (52.6-60. 9) to 14.5 million (13.4-15.9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019. Interpretation After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. Methods Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults. Findings There were 1.19 million (95% UI 1.11-1.28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59.6 [54.5-65.7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53.2 [48.8-57.9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14.2 [12.9-15.6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13.6 [12.6-14.8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23.5 million (21.9-25.2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2.7% (1.9-3.6) came from YLDs and 97.3% (96.4-98.1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally. Interpretation Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Adolescent transport and unintentional injuries: a systematic analysis using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Globally, transport and unintentional injuries persist as leading preventable causes of mortality and morbidity for adolescents. We sought to report comprehensive trends in injury-related mortality and morbidity for adolescents aged 10–24 years during the past three decades. Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2019 Study, we analysed mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributed to transport and unintentional injuries for adolescents in 204 countries. Burden is reported in absolute numbers and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population by sex, age group (10–14, 15–19, and 20–24 years), and sociodemographic index (SDI) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We report percentage changes in deaths and DALYs between 1990 and 2019. Findings: In 2019, 369 061 deaths (of which 214 337 [58%] were transport related) and 31·1 million DALYs (of which 16·2 million [52%] were transport related) among adolescents aged 10–24 years were caused by transport and unintentional injuries combined. If compared with other causes, transport and unintentional injuries combined accounted for 25% of deaths and 14% of DALYs in 2019, and showed little improvement from 1990 when such injuries accounted for 26% of adolescent deaths and 17% of adolescent DALYs. Throughout adolescence, transport and unintentional injury fatality rates increased by age group. The unintentional injury burden was higher among males than females for all injury types, except for injuries related to fire, heat, and hot substances, or to adverse effects of medical treatment. From 1990 to 2019, global mortality rates declined by 34·4% (from 17·5 to 11·5 per 100 000) for transport injuries, and by 47·7% (from 15·9 to 8·3 per 100 000) for unintentional injuries. However, in low-SDI nations the absolute number of deaths increased (by 80·5% to 42 774 for transport injuries and by 39·4% to 31 961 for unintentional injuries). In the high-SDI quintile in 2010–19, the rate per 100 000 of transport injury DALYs was reduced by 16·7%, from 838 in 2010 to 699 in 2019. This was a substantially slower pace of reduction compared with the 48·5% reduction between 1990 and 2010, from 1626 per 100 000 in 1990 to 838 per 100 000 in 2010. Between 2010 and 2019, the rate of unintentional injury DALYs per 100 000 also remained largely unchanged in high-SDI countries (555 in 2010 vs 554 in 2019; 0·2% reduction). The number and rate of adolescent deaths and DALYs owing to environmental heat and cold exposure increased for the high-SDI quintile during 2010–19. Interpretation: As other causes of mortality are addressed, inadequate progress in reducing transport and unintentional injury mortality as a proportion of adolescent deaths becomes apparent. The relative shift in the burden of injury from high-SDI countries to low and low–middle-SDI countries necessitates focused action, including global donor, government, and industry investment in injury prevention. The persisting burden of DALYs related to transport and unintentional injuries indicates a need to prioritise innovative measures for the primary prevention of adolescent injury. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe