Understanding Variations in Relative Effectiveness : A Health Production Approach

BACKGROUND: Relative effectiveness has become a key concern of health policy. In Europe, this is because of the need for early information to guide reimbursement and funding decisions about new medical technologies. However, ways that effectiveness (does it work?) and efficacy (can it work?) might differ across health systems are poorly understood. METHODS: This study proposes an analytical framework, drawing on production function theory, to systematically identify and quantify the determinants of relative effectiveness and sources of variation between populations and healthcare systems. We consider how methods such as stochastic frontier analysis and data envelopment analysis using a Malmquist productivity index could in principle be used to generate evidence on, and improve understanding about, the sources of variation in relative effectiveness between countries and over time. RESULTS: Better evidence on factors driving relative effectiveness could: inform decisions on how to best use a new technology to maximum effectiveness; establish the need if any for follow-up post-launch studies, and provide evidence of the impact of new health technologies on outcomes in different healthcare systems. CONCLUSIONS: The health production function approach for assessment of relative effectiveness is complementary to traditional experimental and observational studies, focusing on identifying, collecting, and analyzing data at the national level, enabling comparisons to take place. There is a strong case for exploring the use of this approach to better understand the impact of new medicines and devices for improvements in health outcomes

Tailoring staircase-like hysteresis loops in electrodeposited trisegmented magnetic nanowires : a strategy toward minimization of interwire interactions

A new strategy to minimize magnetic interactions between nanowires (NWs) dispersed in a fluid is proposed. Such a strategy consists of preparing trisegmented NWs containing two antiparallel ferromagnetic segments with dissimilar coercivity separated by a nonmagnetic spacer. The trisegmented NWs exhibit a staircase-like hysteresis loop with tunable shape that depends on the relative length of the soft- and hard-magnetic segments and the respective values of saturation magnetization. Such NWs are prepared by electrodepositing CoPt/Cu/Ni in a polycarbonate (PC) membrane. The antiparallel alignment is set by applying suitable magnetic fields while the NWs are still embedded in the PC membrane. Analytic calculations are used to demonstrate that the interaction magnetic energy from fully compensated trisegmented NWs with antiparallel alignment is reduced compared to a single-component NW with the same length or the trisegmented NWs with the two ferromagnetic counterparts parallel to each other. The proposed approach is appealing for the use of magnetic NWs in certain biological or catalytic applications where the aggregation of NWs is detrimental for optimized performance

Relative Effectiveness in Breast Cancer Treatment : A Health Production Approach

BACKGROUND: Pharmaceuticals' relative effectiveness has come to the fore in the policy arena, reflecting the need to understand how relative efficacy (what can work) translates into added benefit in routine clinical use (what does work). European payers and licensing authorities assess value for money and post-launch benefit-risk profiles, and efforts to standardize assessments of relative effectiveness across the European Union (EU) are under way. However, the ways that relative effectiveness differs across EU healthcare settings are poorly understood. METHODS: To understand which factors influence differences in relative effectiveness, we developed an analytical framework that treats the healthcare system as a health production function. Using evidence on breast cancer from England, Spain, and Sweden as a case study, we investigated the reasons why the relative effectiveness of a new drug might vary across healthcare systems. Evidence was identified from a literature review and national clinical guidance. RESULTS: The review included thirteen international studies and thirty country-specific studies. Cross-country differences in population age structure, deprivation, and educational attainment were consistently associated with variation in outcomes. Screening intensity appeared to drive differences in survival, although the impact on mortality was unclear. CONCLUSIONS: The way efficacy translates into relative effectiveness across health systems is likely to be influenced by a range of complex and interrelated factors. These factors could inform government and payer policy decisions on ways to optimize relative effectiveness, and help increase understanding of the potential transferability of data on relative effectiveness from one health system to another

Overeating, caloric restriction and breast cancer risk by pathologic subtype: the EPIGEICAM study

This study analyzes the association of excessive energy intake and caloric restriction with breast cancer (BC) risk taking into account the individual energy needs of Spanish women. We conducted a multicenter matched case-control study where 973 pairs completed lifestyle and food frequency questionnaires. Expected caloric intake was predicted from a linear regression model in controls, including calories consumed as dependent variable, basal metabolic rate as an offset and physical activity as explanatory. Overeating and caloric restriction were defined taking into account the 99% confidence interval of the predicted value. The association with BC risk, overall and by pathologic subtype, was evaluated using conditional and multinomial logistic regression models. While premenopausal women that consumed few calories (>20% below predicted) had lower BC risk (OR = 0.36; 95% CI = 0.21–0.63), postmenopausal women with an excessive intake (≥40% above predicted) showed an increased risk (OR = 2.81; 95% CI = 1.65–4.79). For every 20% increase in relative (observed/predicted) caloric intake the risk of hormone receptor positive (p-trend < 0.001) and HER2+ (p-trend = 0.015) tumours increased 13%, being this figure 7% for triple negative tumours. While high energy intake increases BC risk, caloric restriction could be protective. Moderate caloric restriction, in combination with regular physical activity, could be a good strategy for BC prevention

Could scale-up of parenting programmes improve child disruptive behaviour and reduce social inequalities? Using individual participant data meta-analysis to establish for whom programmes are effective and cost-effective

Background Child disruptive behavioural problems are a large and costly public health problem. The Incredible Years® (IY) parenting programme has been disseminated across the UK to prevent this problem and shown to be effective in several trials. It is vital for policy to know for which families IY is most effective, to be sure that it helps reduce, rather than widen, socioeconomic inequalities. Individual trials lack power and generalisability to examine differential effects; conventional meta-analysis lacks information about within-trial variability in effects. Objectives To overcome these limitations by pooling individual-level data from the IY parenting trials in Europe to examine to what extent it benefits socially disadvantaged families. Secondary objectives examine (1) additional moderators of effects on child behaviour, (2) wider health benefits and potential harms and (3) costs, cost-effectiveness and potential long-term savings. Design Individual participant data meta-analysis of 14 randomised trials of the IY parenting intervention. Settings UK (eight trials), the Netherlands, Ireland, Norway, Sweden and Portugal. Participants Data were from 1799 families, with children aged 2–10 years (mean 5.1 years; 63% boys). Interventions IY Basic parenting programme. Main outcome measures Primary outcome was disruptive child behaviour, determined by the Eyberg Child Behavior Inventory Intensity scale (ECBI-I). Secondary outcomes included self-reported parenting practices, parenting stress, mental health, children’s attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and emotional symptoms. Results There were no differential effects of IY on disruptive behaviour in families with different levels of social/socioeconomic disadvantage or differential effects for ethnic minority families, families with different parenting styles, or for children with comorbid ADHD or emotional problems or of different ages. Some moderators were found: intervention effects were strongest in children with more severe baseline disruptive behaviour, in boys, and in children with parents who were more depressed. Wider health benefits included reduced child ADHD symptoms, greater parental use of praise, and reduced harsh and inconsistent discipline. The intervention did not improve parental depression, stress, self-efficacy or children’s emotional problems. Economic data were available for five UK and Ireland trials (maximum n = 608). The average cost per person of the IY intervention was £2414. The probability that the IY intervention is considered cost-effective is 99% at a willingness to pay of £145 per 1-point improvement on the ECBI-I. Estimated longer-term savings over 20 years range from £1000 to £8400 per child, probably offsetting the cost of the intervention. Limitations Limitations include a focus on one parenting programme; the need to make assumptions in harmonising data; and the fact that data addressed equalities in the effectiveness of, not access to, the intervention. Conclusions There is no evidence that the benefits of the IY parenting intervention are reduced in disadvantaged or minority families; benefits are greater in the most distressed families, including parents who are depressed. Thus, the intervention is unlikely to widen socioeconomic inequalities in disruptive behaviour and may have effects in narrowing inequalities due to parent depression. It was as likely to be effective for older as for younger children. It has wider benefits for ADHD and parenting and is likely to be considered to be cost-effective. Researchers/funders should encourage data sharing to test equity and other moderator questions for other interventions; further research is needed on enhancing equality of access to interventions

Developing a Modelling Framework for Quantifying the Health and Cost Implications of Antibiotic Resistance for Surgical Procedures

Background: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a global public health threat 1. The wider implications of AMR, such as the impact of antibiotic resistance (ABR) on surgical procedures, are yet to be quantified. The objective was to produce a conceptual modelling framework to provide a basis for estimating the current and potential future consequences of ABR for surgical procedures in England. Design: A framework was developed using literature-based evidence and structured expert elicitation. This was applied to populations undergoing emergency repair of the neck of femur and elective colorectal resection surgery. Results: The framework captures the implications of increasing ABR by allowing for higher rates of surgical site infection (SSI) as the effectiveness of antibiotic prophylaxis wanes, and worsened outcomes following SSIs to reflect reduced antibiotic treatment effectiveness. The expert elicitation highlights the uncertainty in quantifying the impact of ABR, reflected in the results. A hypothetical SSI rate increase of 14% in a person undergoing emergency repair of the femur could increase costs by 39% (-2% to 108% credible interval (CI)) and decrease QALYs by 11% (0.4% to 62% CI) over 15 years. Conclusions: The modelling framework is a starting point for addressing the implication of ABR on the outcomes and costs of surgeries. Due to clinical uncertainty highlighted in the expert elicitation process, the numerical outputs of the case studies should not be focussed on, rather the framework itself, illustration of the evidence gaps, the benefit of expert elicitation in quantifying parameters with limited data and the potential magnitude of impact of ABR on surgical procedures. Implications: The framework can be used to support research surrounding the health and cost burden of ABR in England

Costs and longer-term savings of parenting programmes for the prevention of persistent conduct disorder: a modelling study

Background Conduct disorders are the most common psychiatric disorders in children and may persist into adulthood in about 50% of cases. The costs to society are high and impact many public sector agencies. Parenting programmes have been shown to positively affect child behaviour, but little is known about their potential long-term cost-effectiveness. We therefore estimate the costs of and longer-term savings from evidence-based parenting programmes for the prevention of persistent conduct disorder. Methods A decision-analytic Markov model compares two scenarios: 1) a 5-year old with clinical conduct disorder receives an evidence-based parenting programme; 2) the same 5-year old does not receive the programme. Cost-savings analysis is performed by comparing the probability that conduct disorder persists over time in each scenario, adopting both a public sector and a societal perspective. If the intervention is successful in reducing persistent conduct disorder, cost savings may arise from reduced use of health services, education support, social care, voluntary agencies and from crimes averted. Results Results strongly suggest that parenting programmes reduce the chance that conduct disorder persists into adulthood and are cost-saving to the public sector within 5-8 years under base case conditions. Total savings to society over 25 years are estimated at £16,435 per family, which compares with an intervention cost in the range of £952-£2,078 (2008/09 prices). Conclusions Effective implementation of evidence-based parenting programmes is likely to yield cost savings to the public sector and society. More research is needed to address evidence gaps regarding the current level of provision, longer-term effectiveness and questions of implementation, engagement and equity