324 research outputs found

    COST 733 - WG4: Applications of weather type classification

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    The main objective of the COST Action 733 is to achieve a general numerical method for assessing, comparing and classifying typical weather situations in the European regions. To accomplish this goal, different workgroups are established, each with their specific aims: WG1: Existing methods and applications (finished); WG2: Implementation and development of weather types classification methods; WG3: Comparison of selected weather types classifications; WG4: Testing methods for various applications. The main task of Workgroup 4 (WG4) in COST 733 implies the testing of the selected weather type methods for various classifications. In more detail, WG4 focuses on the following topics:• Selection of dedicated applications (using results from WG1), • Performance of the selected applications using available weather types provided by WG2, • Intercomparison of the application results as a results of different methods • Final assessment of the results and uncertainties, • Presentation and release of results to the other WGs and external interested • Recommend specifications for a new (common) method WG2 Introduction In order to address these specific aims, various applications are selected and WG4 is divided in subgroups accordingly: 1.Air quality 2. Hydrology (& Climatological mapping) 3. Forest fires 4. Climate change and variability 5. Risks and hazards Simultaneously, the special attention is paid to the several wide topics concerning some other COST Actions such as: phenology (COST725), biometeorology (COST730), agriculture (COST 734) and mesoscale modelling and air pollution (COST728). Sub-groups are established to find advantages and disadvantages of different classification methods for different applications. Focus is given to data requirements, spatial and temporal scale, domain area, specifi

    The European 2015 drought from a hydrological perspective

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    In 2015 large parts of Europe were affected by drought. In this paper, we analyze the hydrological footprint (dynamic development over space and time) of the drought of 2015 in terms of both severity (magnitude) and spatial extent and compare it to the extreme drought of 2003. Analyses are based on a range of low flow and hydrological drought indices derived for about 800 streamflow records across Europe, collected in a community effort based on a common protocol. We compare the hydrological footprints of both events with the meteorological footprints, in order to learn from similarities and differences of both perspectives and to draw conclusions for drought management. The region affected by hydrological drought in 2015 differed somewhat from the drought of 2003, with its center located more towards eastern Europe. In terms of low flow magnitude, a region surrounding the Czech Republic was the most affected, with summer low flows that exhibited return intervals of 100 years and more. In terms of deficit volumes, the geographical center of the event was in southern Germany, where the drought lasted a particularly long time. A detailed spatial and temporal assessment of the 2015 event showed that the particular behavior in these regions was partly a result of diverging wetness preconditions in the studied catchments. Extreme droughts emerged where preconditions were particularly dry. In regions with wet preconditions, low flow events developed later and tended to be less severe. For both the 2003 and 2015 events, the onset of the hydrological drought was well correlated with the lowest flow recorded during the event (low flow magnitude), pointing towards a potential for early warning of the severity of streamflow drought. Time series of monthly drought indices (both streamflow- and climate-based indices) showed that meteorological and hydrological events developed differently in space and time, both in terms of extent and severity (magnitude). These results emphasize that drought is a hazard which leaves different footprints on the various components of the water cycle at different spatial and temporal scales. The difference in the dynamic development of meteorological and hydrological drought also implies that impacts on various water-use sectors and river ecology cannot be informed by climate indices alone. Thus, an assessment of drought impacts on water resources requires hydrological data in addition to drought indices based solely on climate data. The transboundary scale of the event also suggests that additional efforts need to be undertaken to make timely pan-European hydrological assessments more operational in the future

    Interpreting extreme climate impacts from large ensemble simulations — are they unseen or unrealistic?

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    Large-ensemble climate model simulations can provide deeper understanding of the characteristics and causes of extreme events than historical observations, due to their larger sample size. However, adequate evaluation of simulated 'unseen' events that are more extreme than those seen in historical records is complicated by observational uncertainties and natural variability. Consequently, conventional evaluation and correction methods cannot determine whether simulations outside observed variability are correct for the right physical reasons. Here, we introduce a three-step procedure to assess the realism of simulated extreme events based on the model properties (step 1), statistical features (step 2), and physical credibility of the extreme events (step 3). We illustrate these steps for a 2000 year Amazon monthly flood ensemble simulated by the global climate model EC-Earth and global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. EC-Earth and PCR-GLOBWB are adequate for large-scale catchments like the Amazon, and have simulated 'unseen' monthly floods far outside observed variability. We find that the realism of these simulations cannot be statistically explained. For example, there could be legitimate discrepancies between simulations and observations resulting from infrequent temporal compounding of multiple flood peaks, rarely seen in observations. Physical credibility checks are crucial to assessing their realism and show that the unseen Amazon monthly floods were generated by an unrealistic bias correction of precipitation. We conclude that there is high sensitivity of simulations outside observed variability to the bias correction method, and that physical credibility checks are crucial to understanding what is driving the simulated extreme events. Understanding the driving mechanisms of unseen events may guide future research by uncovering key climate model deficiencies. They may also play a vital role in helping decision makers to anticipate unseen impacts by detecting plausible drivers

    KinOath Kinship Archiver Version 1.4

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    This talk will introduce a new tool for Humanities research, in particular Ethnology, Linguistics, Law, History, but also Genetics and Archiving. This tool is KinOath Kinship Archiver which is an application for collecting and analysing kinship data. It is designed to be flexible and culturally nonspecific, which is important to prevent extraneous concepts being imposed onto the data being recorded. The kinship data can be linked to external resources such as archive data. Graphical representation of the data is a key feature, it produces publishable quality diagrams that can be exported to SVG, PDF and JPG formats. Data can be imported from GEDCOM, CSV and TIP files. Data can be exported into CSV format, with additional formats becoming available as plugins. KinOath provides very flexible data fields for each individual / entity recorded in the kinship data, this is combined with customisable relation types, customisable symbols and customisable kin types. This means, for example, that any number of genders and kinship relations can be defined and represented on a diagram. The most common format, GEDCOM (Family History Department, 1999), can be imported into KinOath. However this GEDCOM format exhibits cultural specificities because it has a predetermined set of kinship types, genders and initiation ceremonies. We know that there is a wider array of kinship types (e.g. suckling relations (Altorki, 1980)) and genders (e.g. the Māhū of Hawaiʻi (Matzner, 2001)). There are also initiation ceremonies beyond the Christian and Jewish ceremonies that are predefined in GEDCOM. However once this data is imported, all the flexibility of KinOath will be available. KinOath has project based diagrams and freeform diagrams. Freeform diagrams are like a quick sketch; while project diagrams each have a database of kinship data which can be shared across multiple diagrams. Project based diagrams also allow kin type string queries, such that individuals to be found based on their relations to others. Individuals in a project diagram can be duplicated and merged, which can be useful, for example, in correcting data, or merging multiple data sets where some individuals overlap. In freeform diagrams kin terms can be defined with kin type strings and shown on the diagram, organised in groups, imported and exported. In the future it will be possible to overlay these kin terms onto project diagrams. In order to perform statistical analysis, the kinship data for each project or freeform diagram can be exported for use in R or SPSS. This combined with queries based on kin types and other search parameters, provides great potential in the analysis of both the kin data and the archive data that has been recorded. The intended users of Kinoath are any researchers that collect data in a context of social relations. Kinship data is often not systematically included in the metadata of archives, however these kin relations provide a context that enriches that archived data. KinOath is in active development and new features are regularly being added. The plugin framework that KinOath shares with Arbil has made it possible for external developers to add features. The various versions and the manual are available at: http://tla.mpi.nl/tools/tlatools/kinoath/ REFERENCES Family History Department of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latterday Saints, 1999, THE GEDCOM STANDARD DRAFT Release 5.5.1 http://www.phpgedview.net/ged551¬5.pdf Matzner, Andrew. 2001. 'O au no keia: voices from Hawaii's Mahu and transgender communities. Bloomington, Indiana: Xlibris. Altorki, Soraya. 1980. MilkKinship in Arab Society: An Unexplored Problem in the Ethnography of Marriage. Ethnology 19(2): 233-24

    Low Efficiency of Homology-Facilitated Illegitimate Recombination during Conjugation in Escherichia coli

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    Homology-facilitated illegitimate recombination has been described in three naturally competent bacterial species. It permits integration of small linear DNA molecules into the chromosome by homologous recombination at one end of the linear DNA substrate, and illegitimate recombination at the other end. We report that homology-facilitated illegitimate recombination also occurs in Escherichia coli during conjugation with small non-replicative plasmids, but at a low frequency of 3×10−10 per recipient cell. The fate of linear DNA in E. coli is either RecBCD-dependent degradation, or circularisation by ligation, and integration into the chromosome by single crossing-over. We also report that the observed single crossing-overs are recA-dependent, but essentially recBCD, and recFOR independent. This suggests that other, still unknown, proteins may act as mediator for the loading of RecA on DNA during single crossing-over recombination in E. coli

    Assessing agreement between malaria slide density readings

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    BACKGROUND: Several criteria have been used to assess agreement between replicate slide readings of malaria parasite density. Such criteria may be based on percent difference, or absolute difference, or a combination. Neither the rationale for choosing between these types of criteria, nor that for choosing the magnitude of difference which defines acceptable agreement, are clear. The current paper seeks a procedure which avoids the disadvantages of these current options and whose parameter values are more clearly justified. METHODS AND RESULTS: Variation of parasite density within a slide is expected, even when it has been prepared from a homogeneous sample. This places lower limits on sensitivity and observer agreement, quantified by the Poisson distribution. This means that, if a criterion of fixed percent difference criterion is used for satisfactory agreement, the number of discrepant readings is over-estimated at low parasite densities. With a criterion of fixed absolute difference, the same happens at high parasite densities. For an ideal slide, following the Poisson distribution, a criterion based on a constant difference in square root counts would apply for all densities. This can be back-transformed to a difference in absolute counts, which, as expected, gives a wider range of acceptable agreement at higher average densities. In an example dataset from Tanzania, observed differences in square root counts correspond to a 95% limits of agreement of -2,800 and +2,500 parasites/microl at average density of 2,000 parasites/microl, and -6,200 and +5,700 parasites/microl at 10,000 parasites/microl. However, there were more outliers beyond those ranges at higher densities, meaning that actual coverage of these ranges was not a constant 95%, but decreased with density. In a second study, a trial of microscopist training, the corresponding ranges of agreement are wider and asymmetrical: -8,600 to +5,200/microl, and -19,200 to +11,700/microl, respectively. By comparison, the optimal limits of agreement, corresponding to Poisson variation, are +/- 780 and +/- 1,800 parasites/microl, respectively. The focus of this approach on the volume of blood read leads to other conclusions. For example, no matter how large a volume of blood is read, some densities are too low to be reliably detected, which in turn means that disagreements on slide positivity may simply result from within-slide variation, rather than reading errors. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed method defines limits of acceptable agreement in a way which allows for the natural increase in variability with parasite density. This includes defining the levels of between-reader variability, which are consistent with random variation: disagreements within these limits should not trigger additional readings. This approach merits investigation in other settings, in order to determine both the extent of its applicability, and appropriate numerical values for limits of agreement

    Assessing the carcinogenic potential of low-dose exposures to chemical mixtures in the environment: the challenge ahead.

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    Lifestyle factors are responsible for a considerable portion of cancer incidence worldwide, but credible estimates from the World Health Organization and the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) suggest that the fraction of cancers attributable to toxic environmental exposures is between 7% and 19%. To explore the hypothesis that low-dose exposures to mixtures of chemicals in the environment may be combining to contribute to environmental carcinogenesis, we reviewed 11 hallmark phenotypes of cancer, multiple priority target sites for disruption in each area and prototypical chemical disruptors for all targets, this included dose-response characterizations, evidence of low-dose effects and cross-hallmark effects for all targets and chemicals. In total, 85 examples of chemicals were reviewed for actions on key pathways/mechanisms related to carcinogenesis. Only 15% (13/85) were found to have evidence of a dose-response threshold, whereas 59% (50/85) exerted low-dose effects. No dose-response information was found for the remaining 26% (22/85). Our analysis suggests that the cumulative effects of individual (non-carcinogenic) chemicals acting on different pathways, and a variety of related systems, organs, tissues and cells could plausibly conspire to produce carcinogenic synergies. Additional basic research on carcinogenesis and research focused on low-dose effects of chemical mixtures needs to be rigorously pursued before the merits of this hypothesis can be further advanced. However, the structure of the World Health Organization International Programme on Chemical Safety 'Mode of Action' framework should be revisited as it has inherent weaknesses that are not fully aligned with our current understanding of cancer biology

    Effects of Fusion between Tactile and Proprioceptive Inputs on Tactile Perception

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    Tactile perception is typically considered the result of cortical interpretation of afferent signals from a network of mechanical sensors underneath the skin. Yet, tactile illusion studies suggest that tactile perception can be elicited without afferent signals from mechanoceptors. Therefore, the extent that tactile perception arises from isomorphic mapping of tactile afferents onto the somatosensory cortex remains controversial. We tested whether isomorphic mapping of tactile afferent fibers onto the cortex leads directly to tactile perception by examining whether it is independent from proprioceptive input by evaluating the impact of different hand postures on the perception of a tactile illusion across fingertips. Using the Cutaneous Rabbit Effect, a well studied illusion evoking the perception that a stimulus occurs at a location where none has been delivered, we found that hand posture has a significant effect on the perception of the illusion across the fingertips. This finding emphasizes that tactile perception arises from integration of perceived mechanical and proprioceptive input and not purely from tactile interaction with the external environment
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