Aerosol and physical atmosphere model parameters are both important sources of uncertainty in aerosol ERF

Changes in aerosols cause a change in net top-of-the-atmosphere (ToA) short-wave and long-wave radiative fluxes, rapid adjustments in clouds, water vapour and temperature, and cause an effective radiative forcing (ERF) of the planetary energy budget. The diverse sources of model uncertainty and the computational cost of running climate models make it difficult to isolate the main causes of aerosol ERF uncertainty and to understand how observations can be used to constrain it. We explore the aerosol ERF uncertainty by using fast model emulators to generate a very large set of aerosol-climate model variants that span the model uncertainty due to twenty-seven parameters related to atmospheric and aerosol processes. Sensitivity analyses shows that the uncertainty in the ToA flux is dominated (around 80 %) by uncertainties in the physical atmosphere model, particularly parameters that affect cloud reflectivity. However, uncertainty in the change in ToA flux caused by aerosol emissions over the industrial period (the aerosol ERF) is controlled by a combination of uncertainties in aerosol (around 60 %) and physical atmosphere (around 40 %) parameters. Four of the atmospheric and aerosol parameters that cause uncertainty in short-wave ToA flux (mostly parameters that directly scale cloud reflectivity, cloud water content or cloud droplet concentrations) also account for around 60% of the aerosol ERF uncertainty. The common causes of uncertainty mean that constraining the modelled planetary brightness to tightly match satellite observations changes the lower 95 % credible aerosol ERF value from −2.65 Wm−2 to −2.37 Wm−2. This suggests the strongest forcings (below around −2.4 Wm−2) are inconsistent with observations. These results show that, regardless of the fact that the ToA flux is an order of magnitude larger than the aerosol ERF, the observed flux can constrain the uncertainty in ERF because their values are connected by constrainable process parameters. The key to reducing the aerosol ERF uncertainty further will be to identify observations that can additionally constrain individual parameter ranges and/or combined parameter effects, which can be achieved through sensitivity analysis of perturbed parameter ensembles

A multidisciplinary scientific investigation of the 1916 Hawthorn Mine Crater, Beaumont Hamel, Somme, Northern France

Hawthorn Crater is a prominent feature of the former Somme battle-field near Beaumont Hamel, Northern France. It resulted from the detonation of arguably the most famous of nine mines that the British had prepared below German lines on 1 July 1916, as part of the opening day of the Battle of the Somme. However, the crater has not been studied scientifically, as was in private land until recently taken over by the Hawthorn Crater Association. This paper documents three field seasons of multi-disciplinary site investigations. Methods included: remote sensing, drones, ground-based-LiDAR and surface surveys, geophysics and archaeological investigations. Magnetic anomalies were identified as: still-intact German fire pits, barbed wire and equipment, as the crater became the frontline after formation, and Allied shell craters. This study provided a rare opportunity to study a First World War mine crater, and highlighting modern science can assist detection and characterisation of significant archaeological sites

A Simple Model of Global Aerosol Indirect Effects

Most estimates of the global mean indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth's energy balance are from simulations by global models of the aerosol lifecycle coupled with global models of clouds and the hydrologic cycle. Extremely simple models have been developed for integrated assessment models, but lack the flexibility to distinguish between primary and secondary sources of aerosol. Here a simple but more physically based model expresses the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) using analytic representations of cloud and aerosol distributions and processes. Although the simple model is able to produce estimates of AIEs that are comparable to those from some global aerosol models using the same global mean aerosol properties, the estimates by the simple model are sensitive to preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei concentration, preindustrial accumulation mode radius, width of the accumulation mode, size of primary particles, cloud thickness, primary and secondary anthropogenic emissions, the fraction of the secondary anthropogenic emissions that accumulates on the coarse mode, the fraction of the secondary mass that forms new particles, and the sensitivity of liquid water path to droplet number concentration. Estimates of present-day AIEs as low as 5 W/sq m and as high as 0.3 W/sq m are obtained for plausible sets of parameter values. Estimates are surprisingly linear in emissions. The estimates depend on parameter values in ways that are consistent with results from detailed global aerosol-climate simulation models, which adds to understanding of the dependence on AIE uncertainty on uncertainty in parameter values

Effect of oxygen on the expression of renin-angiotensin system components in a human trophoblast cell line

During the first trimester, normal placental development occurs in a low oxygen environment that is known to stimulate angiogenesis via upregulation of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF). Expression of the placental renin-angiotensin system (RAS) is highest in early pregnancy. While the RAS and oxygen both stimulate angiogenesis, how they interact within the placenta is unknown. We postulated that low oxygen increases expression of the proangiogenic RAS pathway and that this is associated with increased VEGF in a first trimester human trophoblast cell line (HTR-8/SVneo). HTR-8/SVneo cells were cultured in one of three oxygen tensions (1%, 5% and 20%). RAS and VEGF mRNA expression were determined by qPCR. Prorenin, angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) and VEGF protein levels in the supernatant, as well as prorenin and ACE in cell lysates, were measured using ELISAs. Low oxygen significantly increased the expression of both angiotensin II type 1 receptor (AGTR1) and VEGF (both P < 0.05). There was a positive correlation between AGTR1 and VEGF expression at low oxygen (r = 0.64, P < 0.005). Corresponding increases in VEGF protein were observed with low oxygen (P < 0.05). Despite no change in ACE1 mRNA expression, ACE levels in the supernatant increased with low oxygen (1% and 5%, P < 0.05). Expression of other RAS components did not change. Low oxygen increased AGTR1 and VEGF expression, as well as ACE and VEGF protein levels, suggesting that the proangiogenic RAS pathway is activated. This highlights a potential role for the placental RAS in mediating the proangiogenic effects of low oxygen in placental development

Study Protocol. Evaluating the life-course health impact of a city-wide system approach to improve air quality in Bradford, UK : A quasi-experimental study with implementation and process evaluation

BACKGROUND: Air quality is a major public health threat linked to poor birth outcomes, respiratory and cardiovascular disease, and premature mortality. Deprived groups and children are disproportionately affected. Bradford will implement a Clean Air Zone (CAZ) as part of the Bradford Clean Air Plan (B-CAP) in 2022 to reduce pollution, providing a natural experiment. The aim of the current study is to evaluate the impact of the B-CAP on health outcomes and air quality, inequalities and explore value for money. An embedded process and implementation evaluation will also explore barriers and facilitators to implementation, impact on attitudes and behaviours, and any adverse consequences. METHODS: The study is split into 4 work packages (WP). WP1A: 20 interviews with decision makers, 20 interviews with key stakeholders; 10 public focus groups and documentary analysis of key reports will assess implementation barriers, acceptability and adverse or unanticipated consequences at 1 year post-implementation (defined as point at which charging CAZ goes ‘live’). WP1B: A population survey (n = 2000) will assess travel behaviour and attitudes at baseline and change at 1 year post-implementation). WP2: Routine air quality measurements will be supplemented with data from mobile pollution sensors in 12 schools collected by N = 240 pupil citizen scientists (4 within, 4 bordering and 4 distal to CAZ boundary). Pupils will carry sensors over four monitoring periods over a 12 month period (two pre, and two post-implementation). We will explore whether reductions in pollution vary by CAZ proximity. WP3A: We will conduct a quasi-experimental interrupted time series analysis using a longitudinal routine health dataset of > 530,000 Bradford residents comparing trends (3 years prior vs 3 years post) in respiratory health (assessed via emergency/GP attendances. WP3B: We will use the richly-characterised Born in Bradford cohort (13,500 children) to explore health inequalities in respiratory health using detailed socio-economic data. WP4: will entail a multi-sectoral health economic evaluation to determine value for money of the B-CAP. DISCUSSION: This will be first comprehensive quasi-experimental evaluation of a city-wide policy intervention to improve air quality. The findings will be of value for other areas implementing this type of approach. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN67530835 10.1186/ISRCTN67530835 SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12940-022-00942-z

Data Descriptor : Collocated observations of cloud condensation nuclei, particle size distributions, and chemical composition

Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentrations alongside with submicrometer particle number size distributions and particle chemical composition have been measured at atmospheric observatories of the Aerosols, Clouds, and Trace gases Research InfraStructure (ACTRIS) as well as other international sites over multiple years. Here, harmonized data records from 11 observatories are summarized, spanning 98,677 instrument hours for CCN data, 157,880 for particle number size distributions, and 70,817 for chemical composition data. The observatories represent nine different environments, e.g., Arctic, Atlantic, Pacific and Mediterranean maritime, boreal forest, or high alpine atmospheric conditions. This is a unique collection of aerosol particle properties most relevant for studying aerosol-cloud interactions which constitute the largest uncertainty in anthropogenic radiative forcing of the climate. The dataset is appropriate for comprehensive aerosol characterization (e.g., closure studies of CCN), model-measurement intercomparison and satellite retrieval method evaluation, among others. Data have been acquired and processed following international recommendations for quality assurance and have undergone multiple stages of quality assessment.Peer reviewe

Reduced anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing caused by biogenic new particle formation

The magnitude of aerosol radiative forcing caused by anthropogenic emissions depends on the baseline state of the atmosphere under pristine preindustrial conditions. Measurements show that particle formation in atmospheric conditions can occur solely from biogenic vapors. Here, we evaluate the potential effect of this source of particles on preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations and aerosol-cloud radiative forcing over the industrial period. Model simulations show that the pure biogenic particle formation mechanism has a much larger relative effect on CCN concentrations in the preindustrial atmosphere than in the present atmosphere because of the lower aerosol concentrations. Consequently, preindustrial cloud albedo is increased more than under present day conditions, and therefore the cooling forcing of anthropogenic aerosols is reduced. The mechanism increases CCN concentrations by 20-100% over a large fraction of the preindustrial lower atmosphere, and the magnitude of annual global mean radiative forcing caused by changes of cloud albedo since 1750 is reduced by 0.22 W m-2 (27%) to -0.60 W m-2. Model uncertainties, relatively slow formation rates, and limited available ambient measurements make it difficult to establish the significance of a mechanism that has its dominant effect under preindustrial conditions. Our simulations predict more particle formation in the Amazon than is observed. However, the first observation of pure organic nucleation has now been reported for the free troposphere. Given the potentially significant effect on anthropogenic forcing, effort should be made to better understand such naturally driven aerosol processes