Confidence and self-attribution bias in an artificial stock market

Using an agent-based model we examine the dynamics of stock price fluctuations and their rates of return in an artificial financial market composed of fundamentalist and chartist agents with and without confidence. We find that chartist agents who are confident generate higher price and rate of return volatilities than those who are not. We also find that kurtosis and skewness are lower in our simulation study of agents who are not confident. We show that the stock price and confidence index—both generated by our model—are cointegrated and that stock price affects confidence index but confidence index does not affect stock price. We next compare the results of our model with the S&P 500 index and its respective stock market confidence index using cointegration and Granger tests. As in our model, we find that stock prices drive their respective confidence indices, but that the opposite relationship, i.e., the assumption that confidence indices drive stock prices, is not significant.This work was supported by grant number: 2014/19534-8, URL: http://www.fapesp.br/, Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo, MAB; and grant number: 1267846, URL: http://www.capes.gov.br/, Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior, JNS. (2014/19534-8 - Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo; 1267846 - Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior)Published versio

Low-level Laser Therapy to the Mouse Femur Enhances the Fungicidal Response of Neutrophils against Paracoccidioides brasiliensis

Neutrophils (PMN) play a central role in host defense against the neglected fungal infection paracoccidioidomycosis (PCM), which is caused by the dimorphic fungus Paracoccidioides brasiliensis (Pb). PCM is of major importance, especially in Latin America, and its treatment relies on the use of antifungal drugs. However, the course of treatment is lengthy, leading to side effects and even development of fungal resistance. the goal of the study was to use low-level laser therapy (LLLT) to stimulate PMN to fight Pb in vivo. Swiss mice with subcutaneous air pouches were inoculated with a virulent strain of Pb or fungal cell wall components (Zymosan), and then received LLLT (780 nm; 50 mW; 12.5 J/cm2; 30 seconds per point, giving a total energy of 0.5 J per point) on alternate days at two points on each hind leg. the aim was to reach the bone marrow in the femur with light. Non-irradiated animals were used as controls. the number and viability of the PMN that migrated to the inoculation site was assessed, as well as their ability to synthesize proteins, produce reactive oxygen species (ROS) and their fungicidal activity. the highly pure PMN populations obtained after 10 days of infection were also subsequently cultured in the presence of Pb for trials of protein production, evaluation of mitochondrial activity, ROS production and quantification of viable fungi growth. PMN from mice that received LLLT were more active metabolically, had higher fungicidal activity against Pb in vivo and also in vitro. the kinetics of neutrophil protein production also correlated with a more activated state. LLLT may be a safe and non-invasive approach to deal with PCM infection.Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais (FAPEMIG)National Institute of Health (US NIH)Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)Fed Univ Alfenas UNIFAL MG, Inst Biomed Sci, Dept Microbiol & Immunol, Alfenas, MG, BrazilFed Univ Alfenas UNIFAL MG, Inst Biomed Sci, Dept Biochem, Alfenas, MG, BrazilState Univ Campinas UNICAMP, Inst Biol, Dept Struct & Funct Biol, São Paulo, BrazilFed Univ São Paulo UNIFESP, Dept Microbiol Immunol & Parasitol, São Paulo, SP, BrazilMassachusetts Gen Hosp, Wellman Ctr Photomed, Boston, MA 02114 USAHarvard Univ, Sch Med, Dept Dermatol, Boston, MA 02115 USAMIT, Harvard Mit Div Hlth Sci & Technol, Cambridge, MA 02139 USAFed Univ Alfenas UNIFAL MG, Inst Biomed Sci, Dept Pathol & Parasitol, Alfenas, MG, BrazilFed Univ São Paulo UNIFESP, Dept Microbiol Immunol & Parasitol, São Paulo, SP, BrazilCNPq: 486135/2012-8CNPq: 304827/2012-6FAPEMIG: CBB-PPM-00119-14National Institute of Health (US NIH): R01AI050875CAPES: AEX-9765-14-0Web of Scienc

Data standardization of plant-pollinator interactions

Background: Animal pollination is an important ecosystem function and service, ensuring both the integrity of natural systems and human well-being. Although many knowledge shortfalls remain, some high-quality data sets on biological interactions are now available. The development and adoption of standards for biodiversity data and metadata has promoted great advances in biological data sharing and aggregation, supporting large-scale studies and science-based public policies. However, these standards are currently not suitable to fully support interaction data sharing. Results: Here we present a vocabulary of terms and a data model for sharing plant–pollinator interactions data based on the Darwin Core standard. The vocabulary introduces 48 new terms targeting several aspects of plant–pollinator interactions and can be used to capture information from different approaches and scales. Additionally, we provide solutions for data serialization using RDF, XML, and DwC-Archives and recommendations of existing controlled vocabularies for some of the terms. Our contribution supports open access to standardized data on plant–pollinator interactions. Conclusions: The adoption of the vocabulary would facilitate data sharing to support studies ranging from the spatial and temporal distribution of interactions to the taxonomic, phenological, functional, and phylogenetic aspects of plant–pollinator interactions. We expect to fill data and knowledge gaps, thus further enabling scientific research on the ecology and evolution of plant–pollinator communities, biodiversity conservation, ecosystem services, and the development of public policies. The proposed data model is flexible and can be adapted for sharing other types of interactions data by developing discipline-specific vocabularies of terms.Fil: Salim, José A. Universidade de Sao Paulo; BrasilFil: Saraiva, Antonio M.. Universidade de Sao Paulo; BrasilFil: Zermoglio, Paula Florencia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas. Centro Cientifico Tecnologico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigaciones En Recursos Naturales, Agroecologia y Desarrollo Rural. - Universidad Nacional de Rio Negro. Instituto de Investigaciones En Recursos Naturales, Agroecologia y Desarrollo Rural.; ArgentinaFil: Agostini, Kayna. Universidade Federal do São Carlos; BrasilFil: Wolowski, Marina. Universidade Federal de Alfenas; BrasilFil: Drucker, Debora P.. Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuaria (embrapa);Fil: Soares, Filipi M.. Universidade de Sao Paulo; BrasilFil: Bergamo, Pedro J.. Jardim Botânico do Rio de Janeiro; BrasilFil: Varassin, Isabela G.. Universidade Federal do Paraná; BrasilFil: Freitas, Leandro. Jardim Botânico do Rio de Janeiro; BrasilFil: Maués, Márcia M.. Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuaria (embrapa);Fil: Rech, Andre R.. Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri; BrasilFil: Veiga, Allan K.. Universidade de Sao Paulo; BrasilFil: Acosta, Andre L.. Instituto Tecnológico Vale; BrasilFil: Araujo, Andréa C. Universidade Federal do Mato Grosso do Sul; BrasilFil: Nogueira, Anselmo. Universidad Federal do Abc; BrasilFil: Blochtein, Betina. Pontificia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul; BrasilFil: Freitas, Breno M.. Universidade Estadual do Ceará; BrasilFil: Albertini, Bruno C.. Universidade de Sao Paulo; BrasilFil: Maia Silva, Camila. Universidade Federal Rural Do Semi Arido; BrasilFil: Nunes, Carlos E. P.. University of Stirling; BrasilFil: Pires, Carmen S. S.. Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuaria (embrapa);Fil: Dos Santos, Charles F.. Pontificia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul; BrasilFil: Queiroz, Elisa P.. Universidade de Sao Paulo; BrasilFil: Cartolano, Etienne A.. Universidade de Sao Paulo; BrasilFil: de Oliveira, Favízia F. Universidade Federal da Bahia; BrasilFil: Amorim, Felipe W.. Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho; BrasilFil: Fontúrbel, Francisco E.. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso; ChileFil: da Silva, Gleycon V.. Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia, Inovações. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia; BrasilFil: Consolaro, Hélder. Universidade Federal de Catalão; Brasi

Data standardization of plant–pollinator interactions

Background: Animal pollination is an important ecosystem function and service, ensuring both the integrity of natural systems and human well-being. Although many knowledge shortfalls remain, some high-quality data sets on biological interactions are now available. The development and adoption of standards for biodiversity data and metadata has promoted great advances in biological data sharing and aggregation, supporting large-scale studies and science-based public policies. However, these standards are currently not suitable to fully support interaction data sharing. Results: Here we present a vocabulary of terms and a data model for sharing plant–pollinator interactions data based on the Darwin Core standard. The vocabulary introduces 48 new terms targeting several aspects of plant–pollinator interactions and can be used to capture information from different approaches and scales. Additionally, we provide solutions for data serialization using RDF, XML, and DwC-Archives and recommendations of existing controlled vocabularies for some of the terms. Our contribution supports open access to standardized data on plant–pollinator interactions. Conclusions: The adoption of the vocabulary would facilitate data sharing to support studies ranging from the spatial and temporal distribution of interactions to the taxonomic, phenological, functional, and phylogenetic aspects of plant–pollinator interactions. We expect to fill data and knowledge gaps, thus further enabling scientific research on the ecology and evolution of plant–pollinator communities, biodiversity conservation, ecosystem services, and the development of public policies. The proposed data model is flexible and can be adapted for sharing other types of interactions data by developing discipline-specific vocabularies of termsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Estimating the global conservation status of more than 15,000 Amazonian tree species

Estimates of extinction risk for Amazonian plant and animal species are rare and not often incorporated into land-use policy and conservation planning. We overlay spatial distribution models with historical and projected deforestation to show that at least 36% and up to 57% of all Amazonian tree species are likely to qualify as globally threatened under International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria. If confirmed, these results would increase the number of threatened plant species on Earth by 22%. We show that the trends observed in Amazonia apply to trees throughout the tropics, and we predict thatmost of the world’s >40,000 tropical tree species now qualify as globally threatened. A gap analysis suggests that existing Amazonian protected areas and indigenous territories will protect viable populations of most threatened species if these areas suffer no further degradation, highlighting the key roles that protected areas, indigenous peoples, and improved governance can play in preventing large-scale extinctions in the tropics in this century

Geographic patterns of tree dispersal modes in Amazonia and their ecological correlates

Aim: To investigate the geographic patterns and ecological correlates in the geographic distribution of the most common tree dispersal modes in Amazonia (endozoochory, synzoochory, anemochory and hydrochory). We examined if the proportional abundance of these dispersal modes could be explained by the availability of dispersal agents (disperser-availability hypothesis) and/or the availability of resources for constructing zoochorous fruits (resource-availability hypothesis). Time period: Tree-inventory plots established between 1934 and 2019. Major taxa studied: Trees with a diameter at breast height (DBH) ≥ 9.55 cm. Location: Amazonia, here defined as the lowland rain forests of the Amazon River basin and the Guiana Shield. Methods: We assigned dispersal modes to a total of 5433 species and morphospecies within 1877 tree-inventory plots across terra-firme, seasonally flooded, and permanently flooded forests. We investigated geographic patterns in the proportional abundance of dispersal modes. We performed an abundance-weighted mean pairwise distance (MPD) test and fit generalized linear models (GLMs) to explain the geographic distribution of dispersal modes. Results: Anemochory was significantly, positively associated with mean annual wind speed, and hydrochory was significantly higher in flooded forests. Dispersal modes did not consistently show significant associations with the availability of resources for constructing zoochorous fruits. A lower dissimilarity in dispersal modes, resulting from a higher dominance of endozoochory, occurred in terra-firme forests (excluding podzols) compared to flooded forests. Main conclusions: The disperser-availability hypothesis was well supported for abiotic dispersal modes (anemochory and hydrochory). The availability of resources for constructing zoochorous fruits seems an unlikely explanation for the distribution of dispersal modes in Amazonia. The association between frugivores and the proportional abundance of zoochory requires further research, as tree recruitment not only depends on dispersal vectors but also on conditions that favour or limit seedling recruitment across forest types

Geography and ecology shape the phylogenetic composition of Amazonian tree communities

AimAmazonia hosts more tree species from numerous evolutionary lineages, both young and ancient, than any other biogeographic region. Previous studies have shown that tree lineages colonized multiple edaphic environments and dispersed widely across Amazonia, leading to a hypothesis, which we test, that lineages should not be strongly associated with either geographic regions or edaphic forest types.LocationAmazonia.TaxonAngiosperms (Magnoliids; Monocots; Eudicots).MethodsData for the abundance of 5082 tree species in 1989 plots were combined with a mega-phylogeny. We applied evolutionary ordination to assess how phylogenetic composition varies across Amazonia. We used variation partitioning and Moran's eigenvector maps (MEM) to test and quantify the separate and joint contributions of spatial and environmental variables to explain the phylogenetic composition of plots. We tested the indicator value of lineages for geographic regions and edaphic forest types and mapped associations onto the phylogeny.ResultsIn the terra firme and várzea forest types, the phylogenetic composition varies by geographic region, but the igapó and white-sand forest types retain a unique evolutionary signature regardless of region. Overall, we find that soil chemistry, climate and topography explain 24% of the variation in phylogenetic composition, with 79% of that variation being spatially structured (R2 = 19% overall for combined spatial/environmental effects). The phylogenetic composition also shows substantial spatial patterns not related to the environmental variables we quantified (R2 = 28%). A greater number of lineages were significant indicators of geographic regions than forest types.Main ConclusionNumerous tree lineages, including some ancient ones (>66 Ma), show strong associations with geographic regions and edaphic forest types of Amazonia. This shows that specialization in specific edaphic environments has played a long-standing role in the evolutionary assembly of Amazonian forests. Furthermore, many lineages, even those that have dispersed across Amazonia, dominate within a specific region, likely because of phylogenetically conserved niches for environmental conditions that are prevalent within regions