At what spatial scale should risk screenings of translocated freshwater fishes be undertaken – river basin district or climo-geographic designation?

To inform aquatic conservation policy and management decisions, translocated freshwater fish species, i.e. those native to part but not all of Great Britain (GB), were assessed with the Aquatic Species Invasiveness Screening Kit (AS-ISK) at two spatial levels (River Basin District [RBD] and GB overall), the outcome scores calibrated and analysed to determine the relevance of geographical scale (GB, RBD and freshwater ecoregion) on AS-ISK outcome score rankings. The 16 species assessed received scores that showed limited among-RBD variation, with all but only one species (silver bream Blicca bjoerkna) receiving the same risk ranking across all RBDs for which they were assessed. A trend of increasing AS-ISK score with decreasing RBD latitudinal location was observed, with two species (bleak Alburnus alburnus and tench Tinca tinca) found to have significantly higher AS-ISK scores in west-coast RBDs than in RBDs to the north and east, and one species (bleak Alburnus alburnus) to have significantly higher AS-ISK scores in southern RBDs than in northern RBDs. The Water Framework Directive classification of Scotland was found to be inconsistent with the latitudinal gradients in thatcountry’s environmental conditions, which are better reflected in the distinction of northern and southern freshwater ecoregions. The ramifications of these legislative classifications for aquatic conservation are discussed

At what spatial scale should risk screenings of translocated freshwater fishes be undertaken – river basin district or climo-geographic designation?

To inform aquatic conservation policy and management decisions, translocated freshwater fish species, i.e. those native to part but not all of Great Britain (GB), were assessed with the Aquatic Species Invasiveness Screening Kit (AS-ISK) at two spatial levels (River Basin District [RBD] and GB overall), the outcome scores calibrated and analysed to determine the relevance of geographical scale (GB, RBD and freshwater ecoregion) on AS-ISK outcome score rankings. The 16 species assessed received scores that showed limited among-RBD variation, with all but only one species (silver bream Blicca bjoerkna) receiving the same risk ranking across all RBDs for which they were assessed. A trend of increasing AS-ISK score with decreasing RBD latitudinal location was observed, with two species (bleak Alburnus alburnus and tench Tinca tinca) found to have significantly higher AS-ISK scores in west-coast RBDs than in RBDs to the north and east, and one species (bleak Alburnus alburnus) to have significantly higher AS-ISK scores in southern RBDs than in northern RBDs. The Water Framework Directive classification of Scotland was found to be inconsistent with the latitudinal gradients in thatcountry’s environmental conditions, which are better reflected in the distinction of northern and southern freshwater ecoregions. The ramifications of these legislative classifications for aquatic conservation are discussed

A global-scale screening of non-native aquatic organisms to identify potentially invasive species under current and future climate conditions

The threat posed by invasive non-native species worldwide requires a global approach to identify which introduced species are likely to pose an elevated risk of impact to native species and ecosystems. To inform policy, stakeholders and management decisions on global threats to aquatic ecosystems, 195 assessors representing 120 risk assessment areas across all six inhabited continents screened 819 non-native species from 15 groups of aquatic organisms (freshwater, brackish, marine plants and animals) using the Aquatic Species Invasiveness Screening Kit. This multi-lingual decision-support tool for the risk screening of aquatic organisms provides assessors with risk scores for a species under current and future climate change conditions that, following a statistically based calibration, permits the accurate classification of species into high-, medium-and low-risk categories under current and predicted climate conditions. The 1730 screenings undertaken encompassed wide geographical areas (regions, political entities, parts thereof, water bodies, river basins, lake drainage basins, and marine regions), which permitted thresholds to be identified for almost all aquatic organismal groups screened as well as for tropical, temperate and continental climate classes, and for tropical and temperate marine ecoregions. In total, 33 species were identified as posing a 'very high risk' of being or becoming invasive, and the scores of several of these species under current climate increased under future climate conditions, primarily due to their wide thermal tolerances. The risk thresholds determined for taxonomic groups and climate zones provide a basis against which area-specific or climate-based calibrated thresholds may be interpreted. In turn, the risk rankings help decision-makers identify which species require an immediate 'rapid' management action (e.g. eradication, control) to avoid or mitigate adverse impacts, which require a full risk assessment, and which are to be restricted or banned with regard to importation and/or sale as ornamental or aquarium/fishery enhancement. Decision support tools AS-ISK Hazard identification Non-native species Risk analysis Climate changepublishedVersio

A global-scale screening of non-native aquatic organisms to identify potentially invasive species under current and future climate conditions

The threat posed by invasive non-native species worldwide requires a global approach to identify which introduced species are likely to pose an elevated risk of impact to native species and ecosystems. To inform policy, stakeholders and management decisions on global threats to aquatic ecosystems, 195 assessors representing 120 risk assessment areas across all six inhabited continents screened 819 non-native species from 15 groups of aquatic organisms (freshwater, brackish, marine plants and animals) using the Aquatic Species Invasiveness Screening Kit. This multi-lingual decision-support tool for the risk screening of aquatic organisms provides assessors with risk scores for a species under current and future climate change conditions that, following a statistically based calibration, permits the accurate classification of species into high-, medium- and low-risk categories under current and predicted climate conditions. The 1730 screenings undertaken encompassed wide geographical areas (regions, political entities, parts thereof, water bodies, river basins, lake drainage basins, and marine regions), which permitted thresholds to be identified for almost all aquatic organismal groups screened as well as for tropical, temperate and continental climate classes, and for tropical and temperate marine ecoregions. In total, 33 species were identified as posing a ‘very high risk’ of being or becoming invasive, and the scores of several of these species under current climate increased under future climate conditions, primarily due to their wide thermal tolerances. The risk thresholds determined for taxonomic groups and climate zones provide a basis against which area-specific or climate-based calibrated thresholds may be interpreted. In turn, the risk rankings help decision-makers identify which species require an immediate ‘rapid’ management action (e.g. eradication, control) to avoid or mitigate adverse impacts, which require a full risk assessment, and which are to be restricted or banned with regard to importation and/or sale as ornamental or aquarium/fishery enhancement.publishedVersio

The 13th Southern Hemisphere Conference on the Teaching and Learning of Undergraduate Mathematics and Statistics

Ngā mihi aroha ki ngā tangata katoa and warm greetings to you all. Welcome to Herenga Delta 2021, the Thirteenth Southern Hemisphere Conference on the Teaching and Learning of Undergraduate Mathematics and Statistics. It has been ten years since the Volcanic Delta Conference in Rotorua, and we are excited to have the Delta community return to Aotearoa New Zealand, if not in person, then by virtual means. Although the limits imposed by the pandemic mean that most of this year’s 2021 participants are unable to set foot in Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland, this has certainly not stopped interest in this event. Participants have been invited to draw on the concept of herenga, in Te Reo Māori usually a mooring place where people from afar come to share their knowledge and experiences. Although many of the participants are still some distance away, the submissions that have been sent in will continue to stimulate discussion on mathematics and statistics undergraduate education in the Delta tradition. The conference invited papers, abstracts and posters, working within the initial themes of Values and Variables. The range of submissions is diverse, and will provide participants with many opportunities to engage, discuss, and network with colleagues across the Delta community. The publications for this thirteenth Delta Conference include publications in the International Journal of Mathematical Education in Science and Technology, iJMEST, (available at https://www.tandfonline.com/journals/tmes20/collections/Herenga-Delta-2021), the Conference Proceedings, and the Programme (which has created some interesting challenges around time-zones), by the Local Organizing Committee. Papers in the iJMEST issue and the Proceedings were peer reviewed by at least two reviewers per paper. Of the ten submissions to the Proceedings, three were accepted. We are pleased to now be at the business end of the conference and hope that this event will carry on the special atmosphere of the many Deltas which have preceded this one. We hope that you will enjoy this conference, the virtual and social experiences that accompany it, and take the opportunity to contribute to further enhancing mathematics and statistics undergraduate education. Ngā manaakitanga, Phil Kane (The University of Auckland | Waipapa Taumata Rau) on behalf of the Local Organising Committ

Ophthalmology

OBJECTIVE: In the current study we aimed to identify metabolites associated with age-related macular degeneration (AMD) by performing the largest metabolome association analysis in AMD to date. In addition, we aimed to determine the effect of AMD-associated genetic variants on metabolite levels, and aimed to investigate associations between the identified metabolites and activity of the complement system, one of the main AMD-associated disease pathways. DESIGN: Case-control assocation analysis of metabolomics data. SUBJECTS: 2,267 AMD cases and 4,266 controls from five European cohorts. METHODS: Metabolomics was performed using a high-throughput H-NMR metabolomics platform, which allows the quantification of 146 metabolite measurements and 79 derivative values. Metabolome-AMD associations were studied using univariate logistic regression analyses. The effect of 52 AMD-associated genetic variants on the identified metabolites was investigated using linear regression. In addition, associations between the identified metabolites and activity of the complement pathway (defined by the C3d/C3 ratio) were investigated using linear regression. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Metabolites associated with AMD RESULTS: We identified 60 metabolites that were significantly associated with AMD, including increased levels of large and extra-large HDL subclasses and decreased levels of VLDL, amino acids and citrate. Out of 52 AMD-associated genetic variants, seven variants were significantly associated with 34 of the identified metabolites. The strongest associations were identified for genetic variants located in or near genes involved in lipid metabolism (ABCA1, CETP, APOE, LIPC) with metabolites belonging to the large and extra-large HDL subclasses. In addition, 57 out of 60 metabolites were significantly associated with complement activation levels, and these associations were independent of AMD status. Increased large and extra-large HDL levels and decreased VLDL and amino acid levels were associated with increased complement activation. CONCLUSIONS: Lipoprotein levels were associated with AMD-associated genetic variants, while decreased essential amino acids may point to nutritional deficiencies in AMD. We observed strong associations between the vast majority of the AMD-associated metabolites and systemic complement activation levels, independent of AMD status. This may indicate biological interactions between the main AMD disease pathways, and suggests that multiple pathways may need to be targeted simultaneously for successful treatment of AMD

Effectiveness of a national quality improvement programme to improve survival after emergency abdominal surgery (EPOCH): a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial

Background: Emergency abdominal surgery is associated with poor patient outcomes. We studied the effectiveness of a national quality improvement (QI) programme to implement a care pathway to improve survival for these patients. Methods: We did a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial of patients aged 40 years or older undergoing emergency open major abdominal surgery. Eligible UK National Health Service (NHS) hospitals (those that had an emergency general surgical service, a substantial volume of emergency abdominal surgery cases, and contributed data to the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit) were organised into 15 geographical clusters and commenced the QI programme in a random order, based on a computer-generated random sequence, over an 85-week period with one geographical cluster commencing the intervention every 5 weeks from the second to the 16th time period. Patients were masked to the study group, but it was not possible to mask hospital staff or investigators. The primary outcome measure was mortality within 90 days of surgery. Analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN80682973. Findings: Treatment took place between March 3, 2014, and Oct 19, 2015. 22 754 patients were assessed for elegibility. Of 15 873 eligible patients from 93 NHS hospitals, primary outcome data were analysed for 8482 patients in the usual care group and 7374 in the QI group. Eight patients in the usual care group and nine patients in the QI group were not included in the analysis because of missing primary outcome data. The primary outcome of 90-day mortality occurred in 1210 (16%) patients in the QI group compared with 1393 (16%) patients in the usual care group (HR 1·11, 0·96–1·28). Interpretation: No survival benefit was observed from this QI programme to implement a care pathway for patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery. Future QI programmes should ensure that teams have both the time and resources needed to improve patient care. Funding: National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research Programme

Effectiveness of a national quality improvement programme to improve survival after emergency abdominal surgery (EPOCH): a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial

BACKGROUND: Emergency abdominal surgery is associated with poor patient outcomes. We studied the effectiveness of a national quality improvement (QI) programme to implement a care pathway to improve survival for these patients. METHODS: We did a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial of patients aged 40 years or older undergoing emergency open major abdominal surgery. Eligible UK National Health Service (NHS) hospitals (those that had an emergency general surgical service, a substantial volume of emergency abdominal surgery cases, and contributed data to the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit) were organised into 15 geographical clusters and commenced the QI programme in a random order, based on a computer-generated random sequence, over an 85-week period with one geographical cluster commencing the intervention every 5 weeks from the second to the 16th time period. Patients were masked to the study group, but it was not possible to mask hospital staff or investigators. The primary outcome measure was mortality within 90 days of surgery. Analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN80682973. FINDINGS: Treatment took place between March 3, 2014, and Oct 19, 2015. 22 754 patients were assessed for elegibility. Of 15 873 eligible patients from 93 NHS hospitals, primary outcome data were analysed for 8482 patients in the usual care group and 7374 in the QI group. Eight patients in the usual care group and nine patients in the QI group were not included in the analysis because of missing primary outcome data. The primary outcome of 90-day mortality occurred in 1210 (16%) patients in the QI group compared with 1393 (16%) patients in the usual care group (HR 1·11, 0·96-1·28). INTERPRETATION: No survival benefit was observed from this QI programme to implement a care pathway for patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery. Future QI programmes should ensure that teams have both the time and resources needed to improve patient care. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research Programme

Para-infectious brain injury in COVID-19 persists at follow-up despite attenuated cytokine and autoantibody responses

To understand neurological complications of COVID-19 better both acutely and for recovery, we measured markers of brain injury, inflammatory mediators, and autoantibodies in 203 hospitalised participants; 111 with acute sera (1–11 days post-admission) and 92 convalescent sera (56 with COVID-19-associated neurological diagnoses). Here we show that compared to 60 uninfected controls, tTau, GFAP, NfL, and UCH-L1 are increased with COVID-19 infection at acute timepoints and NfL and GFAP are significantly higher in participants with neurological complications. Inflammatory mediators (IL-6, IL-12p40, HGF, M-CSF, CCL2, and IL-1RA) are associated with both altered consciousness and markers of brain injury. Autoantibodies are more common in COVID-19 than controls and some (including against MYL7, UCH-L1, and GRIN3B) are more frequent with altered consciousness. Additionally, convalescent participants with neurological complications show elevated GFAP and NfL, unrelated to attenuated systemic inflammatory mediators and to autoantibody responses. Overall, neurological complications of COVID-19 are associated with evidence of neuroglial injury in both acute and late disease and these correlate with dysregulated innate and adaptive immune responses acutely