Taking Uncertainty Seriously: From Permissive Regulation to Preventative Design in Environmental Decision Making

This paper contrasts two paradigms of environmental regulatory decision making, permissive regulation and preventative design, with respect to their treatment of scientific and legal uncertainty and the allocation of legal standards and burdens of proof. Permissive regulation, which is the predominant approach in Canada, suffers two types of statistical errors. A type I error occurs when, for example, a pollution control device is unjustly imposed on an industry. A type II error occurs when no action is taken to control an industry when, in fact, damage is taking place. Concern to prevent type I errors often leads to type II errors. Attempts to resolve these problems through incremental changes in legislation and policy have generally failed. This article illustrates the scientific and regulatory problems associated with \u27permissive regulation through an analysis of environmental common law, legislation, and regulation. Protection of environmental quality requires regulatory decision making rooted in the principles of precautionary, preventative action that tends to minimize costly type II errors. With the preventative design approach now being used in several jurisdictions, the regulatory burden of proving harm is shifted from regulators to the polluters who must demonstrate safety. European and American initiatives as well as international agreements illustrate the historical development and implementation of this preventative design perspective. This article suggests that Canadian legislation and regulations be written with this approach

Search for anomalous t t-bar production in the highly-boosted all-hadronic final state

A search is presented for a massive particle, generically referred to as a Z', decaying into a t t-bar pair. The search focuses on Z' resonances that are sufficiently massive to produce highly Lorentz-boosted top quarks, which yield collimated decay products that are partially or fully merged into single jets. The analysis uses new methods to analyze jet substructure, providing suppression of the non-top multijet backgrounds. The analysis is based on a data sample of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 7 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5 inverse femtobarns. Upper limits in the range of 1 pb are set on the product of the production cross section and branching fraction for a topcolor Z' modeled for several widths, as well as for a Randall--Sundrum Kaluza--Klein gluon. In addition, the results constrain any enhancement in t t-bar production beyond expectations of the standard model for t t-bar invariant masses larger than 1 TeV.Comment: Submitted to the Journal of High Energy Physics; this version includes a minor typo correction that will be submitted as an erratu

Search for narrow resonances and quantum black holes in inclusive and b-tagged dijet mass spectra from pp collisions at √s=7 TeV

This is the pre-print version of the Article. The official published version of the Article can be accessed from the links below - Copyright @ 2013 Springer-Verlag.A search for narrow resonances and quantum black holes is performed in inclusive and b-tagged dijet mass spectra measured with the CMS detector at the LHC. The data set corresponds to 5 fb−1 of integrated luminosity collected in pp collisions at √s=7 TeV. No narrow resonances or quantum black holes are observed. Model-independent upper limits at the 95% confidence level are obtained on the product of the cross section, branching fraction into dijets, and acceptance for three scenarios: decay into quark-quark, quark-gluon, and gluon-gluon pairs. Specific lower limits are set on the mass of string resonances (4.31 TeV), excited quarks (3.32 TeV), axigluons and colorons (3.36 TeV), scalar color-octet resonances (2.07 TeV), E6 diquarks (3.75 TeV), and on the masses of W′ (1.92 TeV) and Z′ (1.47 TeV) bosons. The limits on the minimum mass of quantum black holes range from 4 to 5.3 TeV. In addition, b-quark tagging is applied to the two leading jets and upper limits are set on the production of narrow dijet resonances in a model-independent fashion as a function of the branching fraction to b-jet pairs.This study is supported by the BMWF and FWF (Austria); FNRS and FWO (Belgium); CNPq, CAPES, FAPERJ, and FAPESP (Brazil); MES (Bulgaria); CERN; CAS, MoST, and NSFC (China); COLCIENCIAS (Colombia); MSES (Croatia); RPF (Cyprus); MoER, SF0690030s09 and ERDF (Estonia); Academy of Finland, MEC, and HIP (Finland); CEA and CNRS/IN2P3 (France); BMBF, DFG, and HGF (Germany); GSRT (Greece); OTKA and NKTH (Hungary); DAE and DST (India); IPM (Iran); SFI (Ireland); INFN (Italy); NRF and WCU (Korea); LAS (Lithuania); CINVESTAV, CONACYT, SEP, and UASLP-FAI (Mexico); MSI (New Zealand); PAEC (Pakistan); MSHE and NSC (Poland); FCT (Portugal); JINR (Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan); MON, RosAtom, RAS and RFBr (Russia); MSTD (Serbia); SEIDI and CPAN (Spain); Swiss Funding Agencies (Switzerland); NSC (Taipei); TUBITAK and TAEK (Turkey); STFC (United Kingdom); DOE and NSF (USA)

Search for microscopic black holes in pp collisions at √s=8 TeV

This is the pre-print version of the final published paper that is available from the link below.A search for microscopic black holes and string balls is presented, based on a data sample of pp collisions at √s = 8TeV recorded by the CMS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 12 fb-1. No excess of events with energetic multiparticle _nal states, typical of black hole production or of similar new physics processes, is observed. Given the agreement of the observations with the expected standard model background, which is dominated by QCD multijet production, 95% con_dence level limits are set on the production of semiclassical or quantum black holes, or of string balls, corresponding to the exclusions of masses below 4.3 to 6.2TeV, depending on model assumptions. In addition, model-independent limits are set on new physics processes resulting in energetic multiparticle _nal states

Spatial and temporal patterns of covariation in productivity of Chinook salmon populations of the Northeastern Pacific

We expand on previous analyses of environmental factors related to productivity of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) populations by analysing data on adult recruits per spawner from 24 wild (not hatchery) Chinook salmon stocks from Oregon through western Alaska. To determine the degree to which changes in productivity are shared and to help identify environmental variables that might be related to those changes, we estimated the magnitude and spatial characteristics of positive correlations in productivity trends among stocks separated by various distances. We used Dynamic Factor Analysis to characterize shared time trends in productivity and found that these trends were most closely associated with the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) and, to a lesser extent, with the location of the bifurcation in the North Pacific Current as it reaches North America's west coast. Chinook productivity patterns of separate populations have also become more synchronous in recent years, similar to results reported for other species of Pacific salmon. Such recent changes may reduce the resilience of the species to effects of climate change and habitat modification.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author

A fisheries risk-assessment framework to evaluate trade-offs among management options in the presence of time-varying productivity

Empirically based simulation models can help fisheries managers make difficult decisions involving trade-offs between mnharvests and maintaining spawner abundance, especially when data contain uncertainties. We developed such a general mnrisk-assessment framework and applied it to chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) stocks in the Arctic-Yukon- mnKuskokwim region of Alaska, USA. These stocks experienced low abundance in the 1990s, which led to declarations of mneconomic disaster and calls for changes in harvest strategies. Our stochastic model provides decision makers with quantitative mninformation about trade-offs among commercial harvest, subsistence harvest, and spawner abundance. The model included mnoutcome uncertainty (the difference between target and realized spawner abundances) in the subsistence and mncommercial catch modules. We also used closed-loop simulations to investigate the utility of time-varying management policies mnin which target spawner abundance changed in response to changes in the Ricker productivity parameter (a), as estimated mnwith a Kalman filter. Time-varying policies resulted in higher escapements and catches and reduced risk across a mnrange of harvest rates. The resulting generic risk-assessment framework can be used to evaluate harvest guidelines for most mnsalmon stocks

International cooperation among nation-states of the North Pacific Ocean on the problem of competition among salmon for a common pool of prey resources

A common-pool problem in the North Pacific Ocean that remains largely ignored in international policy is competition for prey resources among salmon populations (Oncorhynchus spp.) from different countries. Hatcheries release large abundances of juvenile salmon into the North Pacific and the resulting decrease in mean body size of adult wild and hatchery salmon may lead to reductions in benefits. We examine incentives and disincentives for cooperation among nation-states on this issue. We recommend that either a new international organization be created or that amendments be made to the mandate and powers of an existing organization. The resulting organization could encourage collective action to reduce competition among salmon from different nations by using side-payments to change the incentive structure, by establishing a multi-national scientific assessment team to create a common frame of reference for the problem, and by implementing policy prescriptions.Common-pool resources Salmon International cooperation North Pacific Ocean