Out of sight, out of mind – but not out of scope. The need to consider ozone in restoration science, policy and practice

Restoration ecologists have local- to global-scale ambitions in a policy framework of sustainable development goals and reversing biodiversity loss. Emphasis is given to environmental alteration, typically considering land degradation and climate change. Other environmental drivers, such as pollution, receive less attention. Here we emphasize that terrestrial restoration discourse needs to consider tropospheric ozone (O3) pollution. O3’s pervasive influence on plants and other ecosystem components provides for the possibility of consequences at community and ecosystem levels. The precursor chemicals which lead to O3 formation are increasing, precipitously so in rapidly-industrialising regions of the world. Yet, a review of critical restoration guidance and journals suggests that because O3 is out of sight, it remains out of mind. Based on a narrative cross-discipline literature review, we examine: (i) how O3 could affect the achievement of restoration goals; and, (ii) how restoration interventions could feedback on tropospheric O3. Evidence, currently limited, suggests that O3 could impair the achievement of restoration goals to as great an extent as other drivers, but, in general, we lack direct quantification. Restoration interventions (e.g. tree planting) that may be considered successful can actually exacerbate O3 pollution with negative consequences for food security and human health. These wide-ranging effects, across multiple goals, mean that O3 is not out of scope for restoration science, policy and practice. In detailing a strategic ozone-aware restoration agenda, we suggest how restoration science and policy can quantify O3’s influence, while outlining steps practitioners can take to adapt to/mitigate the impacts of O3 pollution

Global Budget and Radiative Forcing of Black Carbon Aerosol: Constraints from Pole-to-Pole (HIPPO) Observations across the Pacific

We use a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to interpret aircraft curtain observations of black carbon (BC) aerosol over the Pacific from 85°N to 67°S during the 2009–2011 HIAPER (High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research) Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) campaigns. Observed concentrations are very low, implying much more efficient scavenging than is usually implemented in models. Our simulation with a global source of $6.5 Tg a^{−1}$ and mean tropospheric lifetime of 4.2 days (versus 6.8 ± 1.8 days for the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) models) successfully simulates BC concentrations in source regions and continental outflow and captures the principal features of the HIPPO data but is still higher by a factor of 2 (1.48 for column loads) over the Pacific. It underestimates BC absorbing aerosol optical depths (AAODs) from the Aerosol Robotic Network by 32% on a global basis. Only 8.7% of global BC loading in GEOS-Chem is above 5 km, versus 21 ± 11% for the AeroCom models, with important implications for radiative forcing estimates. Our simulation yields a global BC burden of 77 Gg, a global mean BC AAOD of 0.0017, and a top-of-atmosphere direct radiative forcing (TOA DRF) of $0.19 W m^{−2}$, with a range of $0.17–0.31 W m^{−2}$ based on uncertainties in the BC atmospheric distribution. Our TOA DRF is lower than previous estimates $(0.27 \pm 0.06 W m^{−2}$ in AeroCom, $0.65–0.9 W m^{−2}$ in more recent studies). We argue that these previous estimates are biased high because of excessive BC concentrations over the oceans and in the free troposphere.Engineering and Applied Science

Work function changes in the double layered manganite La1.2Sr1.8Mn2O7

We have investigated the behaviour of the work function of La1.2Sr1.8Mn2O7 as a function of temperature by means of photoemission. We found a decrease of 55 +/- 10 meV in going from 60 K to just above the Curie temperature (125 K) of the sample. Above T_C the work function appears to be roughly constant. Our results are exactly opposite to the work function changes calculated from the double-exchange model by Furukawa, but are consistent with other measurements. The disagreement with double-exchange can be explained using a general thermodynamic relation valid for second order transitions and including the extra processes involved in the manganites besides double-exchange interaction.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures included in tex

Fine Ash-Bearing Particles as a Major Aerosol Component in Biomass Burning Smoke

Biomass burning (BB) events are occurring globally with increasing frequency, and their emissions are having more impacts on human health and climate. Large ash particles are recognized as a BB product with major influences on soil and water environments. However, fine-ash particles, which have diameters smaller than several microns and characteristic morphologies and compositions (mainly Ca and Mg carbonates), have not yet been explicitly considered as a major BB aerosol component either in field observations or climate models. This study measured BB aerosol samples using transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and ion chromatography during the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) campaign. We show that significant amounts of fine ash-bearing particles are transported \u3e100 km from their fire sources. Our environmental chamber experiments suggest that they can act as cloud condensation and ice nuclei. We also found considerable amounts of fine ash-bearing particles in the TEM samples collected during previous campaigns (Biomass Burning Observation Project and Megacity Initiative: Local and Global Research Observations). These ash particles are commonly mixed with organic matter and make up ∼8% and 5% of BB smoke by number and mass, respectively, in samples collected during the FIREX-AQ campaign. The measured ash-mass concentrations are approximately five times and six times greater than those of BB black carbon and potassium, respectively, scaling to an estimated global emission of 11.6 Tg yr−1 with a range of 8.8–16.3 Tg yr−1. Better characterization and constraints on these fine ash-bearing particles will improve BB aerosol measurements and strengthen assessments of BB impacts on human health and climate

Direct Measurements of the Convective Recycling of the Upper Troposphere

We present a statistical representation of the aggregate effects of deep convection on the chemistry and dynamics of the Upper Troposphere (UT) based on direct aircraft observations of the chemical composition of the UT over the Eastern United States and Canada during summer. These measurements provide new and unique observational constraints on the chemistry occurring downwind of convection and the rate at which air in the UT is recycled, previously only the province of model analyses. These results provide quantitative measures that can be used to evaluate global climate and chemistry models

The Biological Records Centre: a pioneer of citizen science

People have been recording wildlife for centuries and the resulting datasets lead to important scientific research. The Biological Records Centre (BRC), established in 1964, is a national focus for terrestrial and freshwater species recording in the United Kingdom (UK). BRC works with the voluntary recording community (i.e. a mutualistic symbiosis) through support of national recording schemes (i.e. ‘citizen science’, but unlike most citizen science it is volunteer led) and adds value to the data through analysis and reporting. Biological recording represents a diverse range of activities, involving an estimated 70 000 people annually in the UK, from expert volunteers undertaking systematic monitoring to mass participation recording. It is an invaluable monitoring tool because the datasets are long term, have large geographic extent and are taxonomically diverse (85 taxonomic groups). It supports a diverse range of outputs, e.g. atlases showing national distributions (12 127 species from over 40 taxonomic groups) and quantified trends (1636 species). BRC pioneers the use of technology for data capture (online portals and smartphone apps) and verification (including automated verification) through customisable, inter-operable database systems to facilitate efficient data flow. We are confident that biological recording has a bright future with benefits for people, science, and nature

Assessing the materiality of nature-related financial risks for the UK

•At least half of global GDP is moderately or highly directly dependent on nature, and ultimately there is no economy without its critical services, including clean and abundant water, clean air and food. Nature across most of the globe has now been significantly altered by multiple human drivers, such as land-use change, pollution, extraction of minerals, abstraction of water and climate change. Statistics on the current state of biodiversity loss and environmental degradation are alarming: the extent and condition of ecosystems has declined in 50% of natural ecosystems, including more than 85% of wetland area lost, and 25% of species are at risk of extinction (IPBES, 2019). The 2019 Global Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) concluded that fourteen of the eighteen ecosystem services that were assessed had declined since the 1970s. The United Kingdom is no exception. The percentage of UK habitats ‘in favourable or improving conservation status’ has been deteriorating since 2007, exacerbating impacts on our soils, pollinators, air and environmental pollution, water and flood protection. Our analyses show that 75% of the United Kingdom is covered by at least one hotspot of natural capital depletion, and 25% is covered by two or more hotspots of natural capital depletion. The UK, with its globally interconnected economy, is also exposed to significant global emerging risks. •The erosion of UK and global natural capital generates significant and long-term risks to society and the UK economy and financial sector. Studies by Central Banks around the world have highlighted the high degree of dependence on nature and the exposure of financial portfolios to nature-related risks. What is not yet clear, is the extent to which this is a material risk to financial stability, on a par with other risks on the radar of Central Banks, and if so, on what timescales this risk could emerge and where it might ‘fall through the cracks’ of current supervision and regulation. •The objective of this project was to assess the materiality of nature-related risks to the UK financial sector both in the near-term and the longer-term. To address this, we develop six innovations: 1.The first Nature-Related Risk Inventory for the UK (UK-NRRI), equivalent in format to the National Risk Register or Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA). 2.Dependency analysis with spatial information to track dependencies on international supply and the nature risks therein, alongside transition risk exposures for the seven largest banks. 3.Development of sector-specific nature-related Value at Risk (nVaR) scores. 4.Co-development of three benchmark scenarios of nature-related risks, following the approach outlined by the Taskforce on Nature-Related Financial Disclosures (TNFD 2023). 5.Macroeconomic modelling to gauge the potential impacts on UK prosperity and resilience. 6.Preliminary financial ‘stress test’ for the domestic lending of the UK’s seven largest banks. The analyses focus on physical nature-related risks, with exposure analysis or transition risks. The findings demonstrate that biodiversity loss and environmental degradation create material risks for the UK economy and financial sector, in addition to their wider social and biodiversity impacts. These impacts are near and present. We find that the deterioration of our natural environment could slow economic growth and result in UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) being 6% lower than it would have been otherwise by the 2030s under two scenarios (domestic and international) and 12% lower under an AMR-pandemic scenario. These are greater than the impact on GDP experienced in the Global Financial Crisis, in which UK GDP fell by around 4% to 6%, and - for the AMR-pandemic scenario – greater than the GDP impact of the COVID-19 pandemic when GDP fell 11% over 2020. While these findings are preliminary, all the evidence points to them being conservative. This study focussed on quantifying near- to medium-term risks, but the evidence clearly demonstrates these risks will increase over time with the potential for crossing tipping points. •The compounding impacts of climate and nature loss would have a very material impact on UK GDP; equivalent to several lost years of growth. It is not realistic to consider nature in isolation as climate change and environmental degradation are occurring in parallel and are interconnected. Environmental degradation increases the likelihood and severity of an acute climate or health shock, and the combined effect would have a very material impact on the economy. For this reason, we also draw upon the NGFS climate scenarios to explore the compounding impacts of climate and nature. We find that in our acute shock scenarios, these compounding impacts can lead to a UK GDP that is 8% lower than it would be otherwise, with a peak shock that wipes out around £200 billion from UK GDP and persists for several quarters, equivalent to 4 – 7 years of lost growth over the period. •The gradual impacts of environmental degradation on the economy are as detrimental or more so than climate change in the near-term - and the chronic year-to-year changes lead to losses that are as important as more sudden shocks. We find that the impact to GDP of chronic year-on-year environmental degradation is at least on par with that from physical climate change risks in the coming decade and for acute shocks, can be far greater than climate impacts alone. In effect, the impacts of environmental degradation are doubling or more the impact of climate change. Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and zoonotic diseases are closely linked with deforestation and habitat destruction which can bring humans and wild animals into closer contact and have been shown to lead to greater abundance of antibiotic resistance genes in soil. Chronic nature-related risks associated with soil degradation, water provisioning, pollution and pollination services have material impacts on agriculture, manufacturing, construction, utilities and key supply chains. •Around half of UK nature-related risks come from overseas, through supply chains and financial exposures, pointing toward the importance of working internationally to close the gaps in disclosures and risk management. The four trillion GBP of financial assets assessed are dependent upon many trillions more of assets globally. Analyses of UK financial exposures suggest that 56% of the total upstream financial exposures have a High or Very High dependence on ecosystem services. Exposures to overseas risks are most material (in financial terms) for the services and manufacturing sectors, with highest risks related to water. The agricultural sector is most at risk in percentage terms, but the largest risks in monetary terms are to the services and manufacturing sectors. Agriculture can be impacted by disruption to several ecosystem services, with potential reductions in output (the nature-related value at risk – or nVaR) up to 15% of total annual production for disruption of any one service, albeit multiple ecosystem services at risk and impacts occur simultaneously, with risks to related to pollination services, soil quality and invasive species. Looking across the UK economy, we find that the nVaR associated with disruption to ecosystem services is in the hundreds of billions and equivalent to several percentage points of GDP; water risks alone are equivalent to around 13% UK GDP (for an extreme 1-in-100 year risk). The agricultural sector is also the most exposed to transition risks and opportunities. •Looking across the portfolios of the seven largest UK banks, the analyses indicate possible adjustments in the valuations of domestic holdings (excluding finance) of up to 4 – 5% over the coming decade from physical nature-related risks. Depending on the bank, the most at-risk sectors include agriculture, utilities, real-estate and manufacturing. Preliminary analyses suggest that between 8% and 53% of the portfolios of the seven largest banks are exposed also to transition risks. Firms could also derive opportunities from the nature-positive transition; including new demand for nature-positive products and services. The findings of this study take us further than previous studies to-date by clearly demonstrating the materiality of nature-related risks and the potential for compounding risks with climate change. Further work is needed to assess the implications for regulation, policy and supervision. Based upon the findings presented here and elsewhere, we believe there is a case for action by Central Banks, regulators and governments to assess if and where nature may be falling through the cracks of current frameworks and where this could lead to financial stability risks that justify explicit changes to those frameworks. We make a series of arguments based on the evidence for why nature may present new challenges that necessitate action. It is clear, for example, from other work (e.g. GARP 2024 and TNFD 2023), that there are sizeable information asymmetries created by the lack of disclosures of nature-related risks and impacts that mean that risks are currently under-priced. This may lead to an accumulation of systemic risk that goes undetected. We also lay out how nature-related risks suffer from the same ‘tragedy of the horizon’ issue identified by Mark Carney in 2015, but also additional challenges of a ‘tragedy of scale’ and unique drivers and risk transmission channels that are not captured within current climate-related risk assessments. •This study adds further evidence to support the conclusion from the Dasgupta Review and others that an early orderly transition toward a nature-positive economy brings significant benefits for UK prosperity and financial stability, through reducing both transition and physical risks, as well as for people and planet. Actions that could be considered by regulators and supervisors to mitigate risks to financial stability include advancing disclosures, broadening supervisory statements on climate to explicitly include environmental risks and introducing a simple nature-risk scenario within exploratory scenario exercises. There are many low-regrets measures that could be taken now, including supporting capability building through fora such as the Climate Financial Risk Forum and working with the scientific community to advance a set of benchmark scenarios, building upon those developed here. Regulators should also take timely opportunities to incorporate nature alongside climate into emerging frameworks, for example on transition plans, ISSB standards and taxonomies. •For financial institutions, the findings should motivate action to assess and manage nature-related financial risks, build capability, and begin to incorporate nature into emerging transition plans. These preliminary results suggest that even in the short-term nature-related risk is not negligible, especially if the losses are considered in relative terms to specific fractions of a lending portfolio. Financial institutions can manage risks to their own portfolios through working with their clients to reduce risks through supporting their transition and resilience. Importantly the transition toward a nature-positive economy presents opportunities as well as risks. With early action, UK firms – both financial and real-economy – can capture these opportunities. •For government, the materiality of nature-related risks demonstrated in this study add additional urgency to put in place the mechanisms, domestically and globally, to meet the goals and targets of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), as well as domestic policies such as the Environmental Improvement Plan (2023). This includes engaging internationally to ensure that emerging sustainable finance frameworks incorporate nature and nature related, including the IFRS Foundation’s ISSB. There is also an urgent rationale for investment and closer working with the scientific community to improve data and analytics as a public good to underpin the UK's transition to a resilient, nature-positive economy. •To continue to advance this area, strengthening collaboration between financial institutions and the scientific community is essential. Nature-related financial risk assessment is in its infancy, but risks are significant. This study has revealed several gaps in knowledge and approaches that require further study. It has also produced a series of tools that can be advanced today: •A Nature-Related Risk Inventory (UK-NRRI) that includes 29 key risks to the UK, with zoonotic diseases and antimicrobial resistance, soil health decline and global repercussions of food insecurity emerging as highest risks in terms of likelihood and impacts. •A set of benchmark narrative and quantitative scenarios that could form the basis for the further co-development of a set of scenarios for financial institutions, through fora such as the Climate Financial Risk Forum and UK Integrating Finance and Biodiversity network. There is a need to build platforms for collaboration and an opportunity to build upon existing fora such as the Climate Financial Risk Forum. The new £7m UKRI Integrating Finance and Biodiversity network, bringing together 17 research institutions, provides a ready venue to deepen collaborations. •Finally, while our focus has been on nature-related risks, the findings have implications for climate change given the strong interconnections between climate and nature The findings suggest that incorporating nature-related risk amplifications in climate scenarios would double the estimated impact of climate change on the UK economy, beyond what is currently predicted by the NGFS

Overlooked and undervalued: The neglected role of fauna and a global bias in ecological restoration assessments

Globally increasing rates of mine site discontinuations are resulting in the need for immediate implementation of effective conservation and management strategies. Surveying vegetation structure is a common method of assessing restoration success; however, responses of fauna to mine site restoration remain largely overlooked and understudied despite their importance within ecosystems as ecological engineers, pollinators, and restoration facilitators. Here we review the current state of the use of fauna in assessments of mine site restoration success globally, and address biases or shortcomings that indicate the assessment approach may undershoot closure and restoration success. We identified just 101 peer-reviewed publications or book chapters over a 49-year period that assess responses of fauna to mine site restoration globally. Most studies originate in Australia, with an emphasis on just one company. Assessments favour general species diversity and richness, with a particular focus on invertebrate responses to mine site restoration. Noteworthy issues included biases towards origin of study, study type, and target taxa. Further searches of the grey literature relating to fauna monitoring in mine site restoration, which was far more difficult to access, yielded six monitoring/guidance documents, three conference proceedings, two book chapters without empirical data, and a bulletin. As with peer-reviewed publications, grey literature focussed on invertebrate responses to restoration, or mentioned fauna only at the most basic level. We emphasise the need for global re-evaluation of regulatory standards to address these major limitations in assessing the capacity of the mining industry to comprehensively and representatively restore faunal communities after mining

A framework for the practical science necessary to restore sustainable, resilient, and biodiverse ecosystems

Demand for restoration of resilient, self-sustaining, and biodiverse natural ecosystems as a conservation measure is increasing globally; however, restoration efforts frequently fail to meet standards appropriate for this objective. Achieving these standards requires management underpinned by input from diverse scientific disciplines including ecology, biotechnology, engineering, soil science, ecophysiology, and genetics. Despite increasing restoration research activity, a gap between the immediate needs of restoration practitioners and the outputs of restoration science often limits the effectiveness of restoration programs. Regrettably, studies often fail to identify the practical issues most critical for restoration success. We propose that part of this oversight may result from the absence of a considered statement of the necessary practical restoration science questions. Here we develop a comprehensive framework of the research required to bridge this gap and guide effective restoration. We structure questions in five themes: (1) setting targets and planning for success, (2) sourcing biological material, (3) optimizing establishment, (4) facilitating growth and survival, and (5) restoring resilience, sustainability, and landscape integration. This framework will assist restoration practitioners and scientists to identify knowledge gaps and develop strategic research focused on applied outcomes. The breadth of questions highlights the importance of cross-discipline collaboration among restoration scientists, and while the program is broad, successful restoration projects have typically invested in many or most of these themes. Achieving restoration ecology's goal of averting biodiversity losses is a vast challenge: investment in appropriate science is urgently needed for ecological restoration to fulfill its potential and meet demand as a conservation tool

Combinations of Plant Water-Stress and Neonicotinoids Can Lead to Secondary Outbreaks of Banks Grass Mite (Oligonychus Pratensis Banks)

Spider mites, a cosmopolitan pest of agricultural and landscape plants, thrive under hot and dry conditions, which could become more frequent and extreme due to climate change. Recent work has shown that neonicotinoids, a widely used class of systemic insecticides that have come under scrutiny for non-target effects, can elevate spider mite populations. Both water-stress and neonicotinoids independently alter plant resistance against herbivores. Yet, the interaction between these two factors on spider mites is unclear, particularly for Banks grass mite (Oligonychus pratensis; BGM). We conducted a field study to examine the effects of water-stress (optimal irrigation = 100% estimated evapotranspiration (ET) replacement, water stress = 25% of the water provided to optimally irrigated plants) and neonicotinoid seed treatments (control, clothianidin, thiamethoxam) on resident mite populations in corn (Zea mays, hybrid KSC7112). Our field study was followed by a manipulative field cage study and a parallel greenhouse study, where we tested the effects of water-stress and neonicotinoids on BGM and plant responses. We found that water-stress and clothianidin consistently increased BGM densities, while thiamethoxam-treated plants only had this effect when plants were mature. Water-stress and BGM herbivory had a greater effect on plant defenses than neonicotinoids alone, and the combination of BGM herbivory with the two abiotic factors increased the concentration of total soluble proteins. These results suggest that spider mite outbreaks by combinations of changes in plant defenses and protein concentration are triggered by water-stress and neonicotinoids, but the severity of the infestations varies depending on the insecticide active ingredient