Optimal prediction of positive-valued spatial processes: asymmetric power-divergence loss

This article studies the use of asymmetric loss functions for the optimal prediction of positive-valued spatial processes. We focus on the family of power-divergence loss functions due to its many convenient properties, such as its continuity, convexity, relationship to well known divergence measures, and the ability to control the asymmetry and behaviour of the loss function via a power parameter. The properties of power-divergence loss functions, optimal power-divergence (OPD) spatial predictors, and related measures of uncertainty quantification are examined. In addition, we examine the notion of asymmetry in loss functions defined for positive-valued spatial processes and define an asymmetry measure that is applied to the power-divergence loss function and other common loss functions. The paper concludes with a spatial statistical analysis of zinc measurements in the soil of a floodplain of the Meuse River, Netherlands, using OPD spatial prediction.Comment: 42 pages including appendix, 10 figures, submitted to Spatial Statistic

SSNdesign -- an R package for pseudo-Bayesian optimal and adaptive sampling designs on stream networks

Streams and rivers are biodiverse and provide valuable ecosystem services. Maintaining these ecosystems is an important task, so organisations often monitor the status and trends in stream condition and biodiversity using field sampling and, more recently, autonomous in-situ sensors. However, data collection is often costly and so effective and efficient survey designs are crucial to maximise information while minimising costs. Geostatistics and optimal and adaptive design theory can be used to optimise the placement of sampling sites in freshwater studies and aquatic monitoring programs. Geostatistical modelling and experimental design on stream networks pose statistical challenges due to the branching structure of the network, flow connectivity and directionality, and differences in flow volume. Thus, unique challenges of geostatistics and experimental design on stream networks necessitates the development of new open-source software for implementing the theory. We present SSNdesign, an R package for solving optimal and adaptive design problems on stream networks that integrates with existing open-source software. We demonstrate the mathematical foundations of our approach, and illustrate the functionality of SSNdesign using two case studies involving real data from Queensland, Australia. In both case studies we demonstrate that the optimal or adaptive designs outperform random and spatially balanced survey designs. The SSNdesign package has the potential to boost the efficiency of freshwater monitoring efforts and provide much-needed information for freshwater conservation and management.Comment: Main document: 18 pages, 7 figures Supp Info A: 11 pages, 0 figures Supp Info B: 24 pages, 6 figures Supp Info C: 3 pages, 0 figure

Using virtual reality to estimate aesthetic values of coral reefs

Aesthetic value, or beauty, is important to the relationship between humans and natural environments and is, therefore, a fundamental socio-economic attribute of conservation alongside other ecosystem services. However, beauty is difficult to quantify and is not estimated well using traditional approaches to monitoring coral-reef aesthetics. To improve the estimation of ecosystem aesthetic values, we developed and implemented a novel framework used to quantify features of coral-reef aesthetics based on people's perceptions of beauty. Three observer groups with different experience to reef environments (Marine Scientist, Experienced Diver and Citizen) were virtually immersed in Australian's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) using 360° images. Perceptions of beauty and observations were used to assess the importance of eight potential attributes of reef-aesthetic value. Among these, heterogeneity, defined by structural complexity and colour diversity, was positively associated with coral-reef-aesthetic values. There were no group-level differences in the way the observer groups perceived reef aesthetics suggesting that past experiences with coral reefs do not necessarily influence the perception of beauty by the observer. The framework developed here provides a generic tool to help identify indicators of aesthetic value applicable to a wide variety of natural systems. The ability to estimate aesthetic values robustly adds an important dimension to the holistic conservation of the GBR, coral reefs worldwide and other natural ecosystems

Natural Killer Cell Mediated Cytotoxic Responses in the Tasmanian Devil

The Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii), the world's largest marsupial carnivore, is under threat of extinction following the emergence of an infectious cancer. Devil facial tumour disease (DFTD) is spread between Tasmanian devils during biting. The disease is consistently fatal and devils succumb without developing a protective immune response. The aim of this study was to determine if Tasmanian devils were capable of forming cytotoxic antitumour responses and develop antibodies against DFTD cells and foreign tumour cells. The two Tasmanian devils immunised with irradiated DFTD cells did not form cytotoxic or humoral responses against DFTD cells, even after multiple immunisations. However, following immunisation with xenogenic K562 cells, devils did produce cytotoxic responses and antibodies against this foreign tumour cell line. The cytotoxicity appeared to occur through the activity of natural killer (NK) cells in an antibody dependent manner. Classical NK cell responses, such as innate killing of DFTD and foreign cancer cells, were not observed. Cells with an NK-like phenotype comprised approximately 4 percent of peripheral blood mononuclear cells. The results of this study suggest that Tasmanian devils have NK cells with functional cytotoxic pathways. Although devil NK cells do not directly recognise DFTD cancer cells, the development of antibody dependent cell-mediated cytotoxicity presents a potential pathway to induce cytotoxic responses against the disease. These findings have positive implications for future DFTD vaccine research

Patient-directed self-management of pain (PaDSMaP) compared to treatment as usual following total knee replacement; a randomised controlled trial

Background Self-administration of medicines by patients whilst in hospital is being increasingly promoted despite little evidence to show the risks and benefits. Pain control after total knee replacement (TKR) is known to be poor. The aim of the study was to determine if patients operated on with a TKR who self-medicate their oral analgesics in the immediate post-operative period have better pain control than those who receive their pain control by nurse-led drug rounds (Treatment as Usual (TAU)). Methods A prospective, parallel design, open-label, randomised controlled trial comparing pain control in patient-directed self-management of pain (PaDSMaP) with nurse control of oral analgesia (TAU) after a TKR. Between July 2011 and March 2013, 144 self-medicating adults were recruited at a secondary care teaching hospital in the UK. TAU patients (n = 71) were given medications by a nurse after their TKR. PaDSMaP patients (n = 73) took oral medications for analgesia and co-morbidities after two 20 min training sessions reinforced with four booklets. Primary outcome was pain (100 mm visual analogue scale (VAS)) at 3 days following TKR surgery or at discharge (whichever came soonest). Seven patients did not undergo surgery for reasons unrelated to the study and were excluded from the intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis. Results ITT analysis did not detect any significant differences between the two groups’ pain scores. A per protocol (but underpowered) analysis of the 60% of patients able to self-medicate found reduced pain compared to the TAU group at day 3/discharge, (VAS -9.9 mm, 95% CI -18.7, − 1.1). One patient in the self-medicating group over-medicated but suffered no harm. Conclusion Self-medicating patients did not have better (lower) pain scores compared to the nurse-managed patients following TKR. This cohort of patients were elderly with multiple co-morbidities and may not be the ideal target group for self-medication

Ovine Fetal Thymus Response to Lipopolysaccharide-Induced Chorioamnionitis and Antenatal Corticosteroids

RATIONALE: Chorioamnionitis is associated with preterm delivery and involution of the fetal thymus. Women at risk of preterm delivery receive antenatal corticosteroids which accelerate fetal lung maturation and improve neonatal outcome. However, the effects of antenatal corticosteroids on the fetal thymus in the settings of chorioamnionitis are largely unknown. We hypothesized that intra-amniotic exposure to lipopolysaccharide (LPS) causes involution of the fetal thymus resulting in persistent effects on thymic structure and cell populations. We also hypothesized that antenatal corticosteroids may modulate the effects of LPS on thymic development. METHODS: Time-mated ewes with singleton fetuses received an intra-amniotic injection of LPS 7 or 14 days before preterm delivery at 120 days gestational age (term = 150 days). LPS and corticosteroid treatment groups received intra-amniotic LPS either preceding or following maternal intra-muscular betamethasone. Gestation matched controls received intra-amniotic and maternal intra-muscular saline. The fetal intra-thoracic thymus was evaluated. RESULTS: Intra-amniotic LPS decreased the cortico-medullary (C/M) ratio of the thymus and increased Toll-like receptor (TLR) 4 mRNA and CD3 expression indicating involution and activation of the fetal thymus. Increased TLR4 and CD3 expression persisted for 14 days but Foxp3 expression decreased suggesting a change in regulatory T-cells. Sonic hedgehog and bone morphogenetic protein 4 mRNA, which are negative regulators of T-cell development, decreased in response to intra-amniotic LPS. Betamethasone treatment before LPS exposure attenuated some of the LPS-induced thymic responses but increased cleaved caspase-3 expression and decreased the C/M ratio. Betamethasone treatment after LPS exposure did not prevent the LPS-induced thymic changes. CONCLUSION: Intra-amniotic exposure to LPS activated the fetal thymus which was accompanied by structural changes. Treatment with antenatal corticosteroids before LPS partially attenuated the LPS-induced effects but increased apoptosis in the fetal thymus. Corticosteroid administration after the inflammatory stimulus did not inhibit the LPS effects on the fetal thymus

CD36 and Fyn kinase mediate malaria-induced lung endothelial barrier dysfunction in mice infected with Plasmodium berghei.

PMC3744507Severe malaria can trigger acute lung injury characterized by pulmonary edema resulting from increased endothelial permeability. However, the mechanism through which lung fluid conductance is altered during malaria remains unclear. To define the role that the scavenger receptor CD36 may play in mediating this response, C57BL/6J (WT) and CD36-/- mice were infected with P. berghei ANKA and monitored for changes in pulmonary endothelial barrier function employing an isolated perfused lung system. WT lungs demonstrated a >10-fold increase in two measures of paracellular fluid conductance and a decrease in the albumin reflection coefficient (σalb) compared to control lungs indicating a loss of barrier function. In contrast, malaria-infected CD36-/- mice had near normal fluid conductance but a similar reduction in σalb. In WT mice, lung sequestered iRBCs demonstrated production of reactive oxygen species (ROS). To determine whether knockout of CD36 could protect against ROS-induced endothelial barrier dysfunction, mouse lung microvascular endothelial monolayers (MLMVEC) from WT and CD36-/- mice were exposed to H2O2. Unlike WT monolayers, which showed dose-dependent decreases in transendothelial electrical resistance (TER) from H2O2 indicating loss of barrier function, CD36-/- MLMVEC demonstrated dose-dependent increases in TER. The differences between responses in WT and CD36-/- endothelial cells correlated with important differences in the intracellular compartmentalization of the CD36-associated Fyn kinase. Malaria infection increased total lung Fyn levels in CD36-/- lungs compared to WT, but this increase was due to elevated production of the inactive form of Fyn further suggesting a dysregulation of Fyn-mediated signaling. The importance of Fyn in CD36-dependent endothelial signaling was confirmed using in vitro Fyn knockdown as well as Fyn-/- mice, which were also protected from H2O2- and malaria-induced lung endothelial leak, respectively. Our results demonstrate that CD36 and Fyn kinase are critical mediators of the increased lung endothelial fluid conductance caused by malaria infection.JH Libraries Open Access Fun

Clinically applicable deep learning for diagnosis and referral in retinal disease

The volume and complexity of diagnostic imaging is increasing at a pace faster than the availability of human expertise to interpret it. Artificial intelligence has shown great promise in classifying two-dimensional photographs of some common diseases and typically relies on databases of millions of annotated images. Until now, the challenge of reaching the performance of expert clinicians in a real-world clinical pathway with three-dimensional diagnostic scans has remained unsolved. Here, we apply a novel deep learning architecture to a clinically heterogeneous set of three-dimensional optical coherence tomography scans from patients referred to a major eye hospital. We demonstrate performance in making a referral recommendation that reaches or exceeds that of experts on a range of sight-threatening retinal diseases after training on only 14,884 scans. Moreover, we demonstrate that the tissue segmentations produced by our architecture act as a device-independent representation; referral accuracy is maintained when using tissue segmentations from a different type of device. Our work removes previous barriers to wider clinical use without prohibitive training data requirements across multiple pathologies in a real-world setting

Effect of remote ischaemic conditioning on clinical outcomes in patients with acute myocardial infarction (CONDI-2/ERIC-PPCI): a single-blind randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Remote ischaemic conditioning with transient ischaemia and reperfusion applied to the arm has been shown to reduce myocardial infarct size in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI). We investigated whether remote ischaemic conditioning could reduce the incidence of cardiac death and hospitalisation for heart failure at 12 months. METHODS: We did an international investigator-initiated, prospective, single-blind, randomised controlled trial (CONDI-2/ERIC-PPCI) at 33 centres across the UK, Denmark, Spain, and Serbia. Patients (age >18 years) with suspected STEMI and who were eligible for PPCI were randomly allocated (1:1, stratified by centre with a permuted block method) to receive standard treatment (including a sham simulated remote ischaemic conditioning intervention at UK sites only) or remote ischaemic conditioning treatment (intermittent ischaemia and reperfusion applied to the arm through four cycles of 5-min inflation and 5-min deflation of an automated cuff device) before PPCI. Investigators responsible for data collection and outcome assessment were masked to treatment allocation. The primary combined endpoint was cardiac death or hospitalisation for heart failure at 12 months in the intention-to-treat population. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02342522) and is completed. FINDINGS: Between Nov 6, 2013, and March 31, 2018, 5401 patients were randomly allocated to either the control group (n=2701) or the remote ischaemic conditioning group (n=2700). After exclusion of patients upon hospital arrival or loss to follow-up, 2569 patients in the control group and 2546 in the intervention group were included in the intention-to-treat analysis. At 12 months post-PPCI, the Kaplan-Meier-estimated frequencies of cardiac death or hospitalisation for heart failure (the primary endpoint) were 220 (8·6%) patients in the control group and 239 (9·4%) in the remote ischaemic conditioning group (hazard ratio 1·10 [95% CI 0·91-1·32], p=0·32 for intervention versus control). No important unexpected adverse events or side effects of remote ischaemic conditioning were observed. INTERPRETATION: Remote ischaemic conditioning does not improve clinical outcomes (cardiac death or hospitalisation for heart failure) at 12 months in patients with STEMI undergoing PPCI. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation, University College London Hospitals/University College London Biomedical Research Centre, Danish Innovation Foundation, Novo Nordisk Foundation, TrygFonden