Forecasting GNP using monthly M1

A presentation of multivariate time series forecasting in which the data consist of a mixture of quarterly and monthly series. In particular, a monthly series of M1 is used to forecast quarterly GNP.Time-series analysis ; Forecasting ; Gross national product

Extension of Granger causality in multivariate time series models

This paper proposes an extension of Granger causality when more than two variables are used in a multivariate time series model, and it is necessary to consider more than one-period-ahead forecasts.Time-series analysis

Explicit equations for leak rates through narrow cracks

Explicit equations to describe the leak rate of a single phase fluid through a narrow crack under a low pressure gradient have been developed and are presented. Four distinct flow regimes, which change with crack opening displacement, have been previously identified and are the basis of this model. The fluid flow is governed by the pressure gradient and the tortuosity of the crack, which is particularly important when the opening displacement is small. The equations have been developed by considering the pressure forces created when the fluid flows down an idealized zig-zag channel. The nature of the flow, and hence the governing equations, change as the crack aperture increases. The power of this approach is clearly seen when the flow rates predicted using this model are compared both to the flow rates obtained from computational fluid dynamics analysis and those found by experimentation. The agreement between these sets of data is good, showing that the major effects governing the flow rate have been identified and then accounted for

Intervention, exchange-rate volatility, and the stable paretian distribution

A look at whether the United States' decision to cease intervention after March 1981 had a perceptible influence on the day-to-day behavior of exchange rates, using the stable paretian distribution.Foreign exchange rates ; Foreign exchange - Law and legislation

Stability in a model of staggered-reserve accounting

An investigation of the nature of the dynamic process implied by staggered-reserve accounting, using a simple reduced-form model of the money-supply process.Bank reserves ; Money supply

Velocity: a multivariate time-series approach

The Federal Reserve announces targets for the monetary aggregates that are implicitly conditioned on an assumption about future velocity for each of the monetary aggregates. In this paper we present explicit models of velocity for constructing rigorous tests to determine whether the behavior of velocity has changed from what was expected when the targets were chosen. We use time-series methods to develop alternative forecasts of velocity. Multivariate time-series models of velocity that include information about past interest rates produce significantly better out-of-sample forecasts than do univariate methods. Using this multivariate time-series framework, we analyze the Federal Reserve's decisions to change, miss, and switch targets from 1980:IQ to l984:IIQ. For this period, we find that when the Federal Reserve deviated from its announced target, velocity deviated significantly from its predicted value.Money supply ; Time-series analysis

The Commodification of Indigeneity as a Tool for Ongoing Settler Colonization in Canada

The initial settler colonization of Canada involved the implementation of the settler colonial Doctrine of Discovery on Indigenous lands to make them ‘open’ for white settlement and ownership, along with capitalism and heteropatriarchy to assert white settler dominance over Indigenous lands, cultures, and bodies. Although it has been over 500 years since first contact between white Europeans and Indigenous peoples in Canada, the ideologies that paved the way for white settlement in Canada are continually reproduced through social institutions, such as the legal system, to maintain settler domination. This thesis explicates the connections between settler colonialism, capitalism, and heteropatriarchy within Saskatchewan and Canadian law to analyze the commodification of Indigeneity as a tool for ongoing settler colonization. Grounded in a Métis feminist theoretical framework, I investigate how and why The Heritage Property Act (1979-80) steals and commodifies Indigenous cultural artifacts for settler government profit. Through a critical literature review, case study of the above-mentioned act, and dream-work, I identify two themes: the Settler Timeline and the Commodification of Indigeneity. Importantly, this thesis recognizes that many Indigenous individual and community identities evolve through links between the past and present, which Indigenous peoples reflect on to move into a good future. As such, cultural artifacts are paramount to cultural identity and continuity within Indigenous nations and communities. The findings of this thesis reveal that the ongoing settler conceptualization of Indigenous peoples as uncivil epistemically justifies the commodification of Indigenous cultural artifacts. This thesis also suggests that, just as decolonization within the settler colonial context necessarily requires the repatriation of all lands, it also requires the repatriation of all stolen and commodified Indigenous cultural artifacts

Capture - Upload - Broadcast. A case study in the gatekeeping of amateur footage

This thesis explores the transition of amateur footage across three different stages of the news making process. Through a case study of the 'Mardi Gras Police Brutality Video' this thesis tracks and analyses the development, reception and integration of amateur footage. Each stage is marked by a different media environment, firstly, as an eyewitness to the news event, secondly through its development in the online YouTube landscape and finally in its broadcast across TV news networks. In order analyse each of these media platforms a mixed-method approach has been adopted that utilises both qualitative content analysis and textual analysis. Whilst the thesis is situated in gatekeeping theory it also crosses into other areas of discussion integral to the understanding of the progression of this case study. This includes the concepts of gatewatching, eyewitnessing and participatory journalism. This thesis is an original contribution to the field of gatekeeping theory by focusing on a unique case study and addressing a new component of gatekeeping processes. What happens to amateur footage as it moves through the gates? This thesis argues that despite the proliferation of amateur footage and the multiplying of gates across multiple platforms, Australian TV news networks successfully retain their authority as gatekeepers through a process of normalisation. However, as this thesis will demonstrate, participatory journalists and active audiences in sites such as YouTube now have the power to influence and judge what enters through the gates

Bilinear forms with Kloosterman and Gauss sums in function fields

In recent years, there has been a lot of progress in obtaining non-trivial bounds for bilinear forms of Kloosterman sums in $\mathbb{Z}/m\mathbb{Z}$ for arbitrary integers $m$. These results have been motivated by a wide variety of applications, such as improved asymptotic formulas for moments of $L$-functions. However, there has been very little work done in this area in the setting of rational function fields over finite fields. We remedy this and provide a number of new non-trivial bounds for bilinear forms of Kloosterman and Gauss sums in this setting, based on new bounds on the number of solutions to certain modular congruences in $\mathbb{F}_q[T]$