195 research outputs found
Recent advances in flood forecasting and flood risk assessment
International audienceRecent large floods in Europe have led to increased interest in research and development of flood forecasting systems. Some of these events have been provoked by some of the wettest rainfall periods on record which has led to speculation that such extremes are attributable in some measure to anthropogenic global warming and represent the beginning of a period of higher flood frequency. Whilst current trends in extreme event statistics will be difficult to discern, conclusively, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of high floods in the 20th century for basins greater than 2x105 km2. There is also increasing that anthropogenic forcing of climate change may lead to an increased probability of extreme precipitation and, hence, of flooding. There is, therefore, major emphasis on the improvement of operational flood forecasting systems in Europe, with significant European Community spending on research and development on prototype forecasting systems and flood risk management projects. This Special Issue synthesises the most relevant scientific and technological results presented at the International Conference on Flood Forecasting in Europe held in Rotterdam from 3-5 March 2003. During that meeting 150 scientists, forecasters and stakeholders from four continents assembled to present their work and current operational best practice and to discuss future directions of scientific and technological efforts in flood prediction and prevention. The papers presented at the conference fall into seven themes, as follows
Orographic effects on convective precipitation and space-time rainfall variability: preliminary results
International audienceIn the EFFS Project, an attempt has been made to develop a general framework to study the predictability of severe convective rainfall events in the presence of orography. Convective activity is embedded in orographic rainfall and can be thought as the result of several physical mechanisms. Quantifying its variability on selected area and time scales requires choosing the best physical representation of the rainfall variability on these scales. The main goal was (i) to formulate a meaningful set of experiments to compute the oscillation of variance due to convection inside model forecasts in the presence of orography and (ii) to give a statistical measure of it that might be of value in the operational use of atmospheric data. The study has been limited to atmospheric scales that span the atmosphere from 2 to 200 km and has been focused on extreme events with deep convection. Suitable measures of the changing of convection in the presence of orography have been related to the physical properties of the rainfall environment. Preliminary results for the statistical variability of the convective field are presented
Pressure-dependent EPANET extension
In water distribution systems (WDSs), the available flow at a demand node is dependent on the pressure at that node. When a network is lacking in pressure, not all consumer demands will be met in full. In this context, the assumption that all demands are fully satisfied regardless of the pressure in the system becomes unreasonable and represents the main limitation of the conventional demand driven analysis (DDA) approach to WDS modelling. A realistic depiction of the network performance can only be attained by considering demands to be pressure dependent. This paper presents an extension of the renowned DDA based hydraulic simulator EPANET 2 to incorporate pressure-dependent demands. This extension is termed âEPANET-PDXâ (pressure-dependent extension) herein. The utilization of a continuous nodal pressure-flow function coupled with a line search and backtracking procedure greatly enhance the algorithmâs convergence rate and robustness. Simulations of real life networks consisting of multiple sources, pipes, valves and pumps were successfully executed and results are presented herein. Excellent modelling performance was achieved for analysing both normal and pressure deficient conditions of the WDSs. Detailed computational efficiency results of EPANET-PDX with reference to EPANET 2 are included as well
Jacobian matrix for solving water distribution system equations with the Darcy-Weisbach head-loss model
Corrected by:Erratum: Jacobian Matrix for Solving Water Distribution System Equations with the Darcy-Weisbach Head-Loss Model, in Vol. 143, Issue 9, 08217002. There is a typographical error in Table 5. The formula for Case 3, the turbulent region (Râ„4,000) in that table of the published paper.The widely used Todini and Pilati method for solving the equations that model water distribution systems was originally developed for pipes in which the head loss is modeled by the Hazen-Williams formula. The friction factors in this formula are independent of flow. Rossman's popular program EPANET implements elements of the Todini and Pilati algorithm, but when the Darcy-Weisbach head-loss formula is used, it does not take into account the dependence of the friction factors on the Reynolds number, and therefore flow, in computing the Jacobian. We present the correct Jacobian matrix formulas, which must be used in order to fully account for the friction factor's dependence on flow when the Todini and Pilati method is applied with the Darcy-Weisbach head-loss formula. With the correct Jacobian matrix the Todini and Pilati implementation of Newton's method has its normally quadratic convergence restored. The new formulas are demonstrated with an illustrative example. © 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers.Angus Simpson and Sylvan Elha
Spectrally resolved observations of atmospheric emitted radiance in the H2O rotation band
This paper presents the project Earth Cooling by Water
Vapor Radiation, an observational programme, which aims at
developing a database of spectrally resolved far infrared
observations, in atmospheric dry conditions, in order to
validate radiative transfer models and test the quality of water
vapor continuum and line parameters. The project provides
the very first set of far-infrared spectral downwelling
radiance measurements, in dry atmospheric conditions,
which are complemented with Raman Lidar-derived
temperature and water vapor profiles
Dust emission from the most distant quasars
We report observations of three SDSS z>6 QSOs at 250 GHz (1.2mm) using the
117-channel Max-Planck Millimeter Bolometer (MAMBO-2) array at the IRAM
30-meter telescope. J1148+5251 (z=6.41) and J1048+4637 (z=6.23) were detected
with 250 GHz flux densities of 5.0 +- 0.6 mJy and 3.0 +- 0.4 mJy, respectively.
J1630+4012 (z=6.05) was not detected with a 3 sigma upper limit of 1.8 mJy.
Upper flux density limits from VLA observations at 43 GHz for J1148+5251 and
J1048+4637 imply steeply rising spectra, indicative of thermal infrared
emission from warm dust. The far-infrared luminosities are estimated to be
\~10^13 L_sun, and the dust masses ~10^8 M_sun, assuming Galactic dust
properties. The presence of large amounts of dust in the highest redshift QSOs
indicates that dust formation must be rapid during the early evolution of QSO
host galaxies. Dust absorption may hinder the escape of ionizing photons which
reionize the intergalactic medium at this early epoch.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figure, to appear in A&A Letter
Dust formation around AGB and SAGB stars: a trend with metallicity?
We calculate the dust formed around AGB and SAGB stars of metallicity Z=0.008
by following the evolution of models with masses in the range 1M<M<8M
throughthe thermal pulses phase, and assuming that dust forms via condensation
of molecules within a wind expanding isotropically from the stellar surface. We
find that, because of the strong Hot Bottom Burning (HBB) experienced, high
mass models produce silicates, whereas lower mass objects are predicted to be
surrounded by carbonaceous grains; the transition between the two regimes
occurs at a threshold mass of 3.5M. These fndings are consistent with the
results presented in a previous investigation, for Z=0.001. However, in the
present higher metallicity case, the production of silicates in the more
massive stars continues for the whole AGB phase, because the HBB experienced is
softer at Z=0.008 than at Z=0.001, thus the oxygen in the envelope, essential
for the formation of water molecules, is never consumed completely. The total
amount of dust formed for a given mass experiencing HBB increases with
metallicity, because of the higher abundance of silicon, and the softer HBB,
both factors favouring a higher rate of silicates production. This behaviour is
not found in low mass stars,because the carbon enrichment of the stellar
surface layers, due to repeated Third Drege Up episodes, is almost independent
of the metallicity. Regarding cosmic dust enrichment by intermediate mass
stars, we find that the cosmic yield at Z=0.008 is a factor 5 larger than at
Z=0.001. In the lower metallicity case carbon dust dominates after about 300
Myr, but at Z=0.008 the dust mass is dominated by silicates at all times,with a
prompt enrichment occurring after about 40 Myr, associated with the evolution
of stars with masses M =7.5 -8M.Comment: 14 pages, 10 figures, 2 Tables, accepted for publication in MNRA
On the source of the late-time infrared luminosity of SN 1998S and other type II supernovae
We present late-time near-infrared (NIR) and optical observations of the type
IIn SN 1998S. The NIR photometry spans 333-1242 days after explosion, while the
NIR and optical spectra cover 333-1191 days and 305-1093 days respectively. The
NIR photometry extends to the M'-band (4.7 mu), making SN 1998S only the second
ever supernova for which such a long IR wavelength has been detected. The shape
and evolution of the H alpha and HeI 1.083 mu line profiles indicate a powerful
interaction with a progenitor wind, as well as providing evidence of dust
condensation within the ejecta. The latest optical spectrum suggests that the
wind had been flowing for at least 430 years. The intensity and rise of the HK
continuum towards longer wavelengths together with the relatively bright L' and
M' magnitudes shows that the NIR emission was due to hot dust newly-formed in
supernovae may provide the ejecta and/or pre-existing dust in the progenitor
circumstellar medium (CSM). [ABRIDGED] Possible origins for the NIR emission
are considered. Significant radioactive heating of ejecta dust is ruled out, as
is shock/X-ray-precursor heating of CSM dust. More plausible sources are (a) an
IR-echo from CSM dust driven by the UV/optical peak luminosity, and (b)
emission from newly-condensed dust which formed within a cool, dense shell
produced by the ejecta shock/CSM interaction. We argue that the evidence
favours the condensing dust hypothesis, although an IR-echo is not ruled out.
Within the condensing-dust scenario, the IR luminosity indicates the presence
of at least 0.001 solar masses of dust in the ejecta, and probably considerably
more. Finally, we show that the late-time intrinsic (K-L') evolution of type II
supernovae may provide a useful tool for determining the presence or absence of
a massive CSM around their progenitor stars.Comment: 23 pages, 15 figures, to be published in MNRA
The escape of ionising radiation from high-redshift dwarf galaxies
The UV escape fraction from high-redshift galaxies plays a key role in models
of cosmic reionisation. Because it is currently not possible to deduce the
escape fractions during the epoch of reionisation from observations, we have to
rely on numerical simulations. Our aim is to better constrain the escape
fraction from high-redshift dwarf galaxies, as these are the most likely
sources responsible for reionising the Universe. We employ a N-body/SPH method
that includes realistic prescriptions for the physical processes that are
important for the evolution of dwarf galaxies. These models are post-processed
with radiative transfer to determine the escape fraction of ionising radiation.
We perform a parameter study to assess the influence of the spin parameter, gas
fraction and formation redshift of the galaxy and study the importance of
numerical parameters as resolution, source distribution and local gas clearing.
We find that the UV escape fraction from high-redshift dwarf galaxies that have
formed a rotationally supported disc lie between 1e-5 and 0.1. The mass and
angular momentum of the galaxy are the most important parameters that determine
the escape fraction. We compare our results to previous work and discuss the
uncertainties of our models. The low escape fraction we find for high-redshift
dwarf galaxies is balanced by their high stellar content, resulting in an
efficiency parameter for stars that is only marginally lower than the values
found by semi-analytic models of reionisation. We therefore conclude that dwarf
galaxies play an important role in cosmic reionisation also after the initial
starburst phase, when the gas has settled into a disc.Comment: 19 pages, 14 figures. Accepted for publication in A&
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