We present late-time near-infrared (NIR) and optical observations of the type
IIn SN 1998S. The NIR photometry spans 333-1242 days after explosion, while the
NIR and optical spectra cover 333-1191 days and 305-1093 days respectively. The
NIR photometry extends to the M'-band (4.7 mu), making SN 1998S only the second
ever supernova for which such a long IR wavelength has been detected. The shape
and evolution of the H alpha and HeI 1.083 mu line profiles indicate a powerful
interaction with a progenitor wind, as well as providing evidence of dust
condensation within the ejecta. The latest optical spectrum suggests that the
wind had been flowing for at least 430 years. The intensity and rise of the HK
continuum towards longer wavelengths together with the relatively bright L' and
M' magnitudes shows that the NIR emission was due to hot dust newly-formed in
supernovae may provide the ejecta and/or pre-existing dust in the progenitor
circumstellar medium (CSM). [ABRIDGED] Possible origins for the NIR emission
are considered. Significant radioactive heating of ejecta dust is ruled out, as
is shock/X-ray-precursor heating of CSM dust. More plausible sources are (a) an
IR-echo from CSM dust driven by the UV/optical peak luminosity, and (b)
emission from newly-condensed dust which formed within a cool, dense shell
produced by the ejecta shock/CSM interaction. We argue that the evidence
favours the condensing dust hypothesis, although an IR-echo is not ruled out.
Within the condensing-dust scenario, the IR luminosity indicates the presence
of at least 0.001 solar masses of dust in the ejecta, and probably considerably
more. Finally, we show that the late-time intrinsic (K-L') evolution of type II
supernovae may provide a useful tool for determining the presence or absence of
a massive CSM around their progenitor stars.Comment: 23 pages, 15 figures, to be published in MNRA