Recent advances in flood forecasting and flood risk assessment

International audienceRecent large floods in Europe have led to increased interest in research and development of flood forecasting systems. Some of these events have been provoked by some of the wettest rainfall periods on record which has led to speculation that such extremes are attributable in some measure to anthropogenic global warming and represent the beginning of a period of higher flood frequency. Whilst current trends in extreme event statistics will be difficult to discern, conclusively, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of high floods in the 20th century for basins greater than 2x105 km2. There is also increasing that anthropogenic forcing of climate change may lead to an increased probability of extreme precipitation and, hence, of flooding. There is, therefore, major emphasis on the improvement of operational flood forecasting systems in Europe, with significant European Community spending on research and development on prototype forecasting systems and flood risk management projects. This Special Issue synthesises the most relevant scientific and technological results presented at the International Conference on Flood Forecasting in Europe held in Rotterdam from 3-5 March 2003. During that meeting 150 scientists, forecasters and stakeholders from four continents assembled to present their work and current operational best practice and to discuss future directions of scientific and technological efforts in flood prediction and prevention. The papers presented at the conference fall into seven themes, as follows

Orographic effects on convective precipitation and space-time rainfall variability: preliminary results

International audienceIn the EFFS Project, an attempt has been made to develop a general framework to study the predictability of severe convective rainfall events in the presence of orography. Convective activity is embedded in orographic rainfall and can be thought as the result of several physical mechanisms. Quantifying its variability on selected area and time scales requires choosing the best physical representation of the rainfall variability on these scales. The main goal was (i) to formulate a meaningful set of experiments to compute the oscillation of variance due to convection inside model forecasts in the presence of orography and (ii) to give a statistical measure of it that might be of value in the operational use of atmospheric data. The study has been limited to atmospheric scales that span the atmosphere from 2 to 200 km and has been focused on extreme events with deep convection. Suitable measures of the changing of convection in the presence of orography have been related to the physical properties of the rainfall environment. Preliminary results for the statistical variability of the convective field are presented

Spectrally resolved observations of atmospheric emitted radiance in the H2O rotation band

This paper presents the project Earth Cooling by Water Vapor Radiation, an observational programme, which aims at developing a database of spectrally resolved far infrared observations, in atmospheric dry conditions, in order to validate radiative transfer models and test the quality of water vapor continuum and line parameters. The project provides the very first set of far-infrared spectral downwelling radiance measurements, in dry atmospheric conditions, which are complemented with Raman Lidar-derived temperature and water vapor profiles

Pressure-dependent EPANET extension

In water distribution systems (WDSs), the available flow at a demand node is dependent on the pressure at that node. When a network is lacking in pressure, not all consumer demands will be met in full. In this context, the assumption that all demands are fully satisfied regardless of the pressure in the system becomes unreasonable and represents the main limitation of the conventional demand driven analysis (DDA) approach to WDS modelling. A realistic depiction of the network performance can only be attained by considering demands to be pressure dependent. This paper presents an extension of the renowned DDA based hydraulic simulator EPANET 2 to incorporate pressure-dependent demands. This extension is termed “EPANET-PDX” (pressure-dependent extension) herein. The utilization of a continuous nodal pressure-flow function coupled with a line search and backtracking procedure greatly enhance the algorithm’s convergence rate and robustness. Simulations of real life networks consisting of multiple sources, pipes, valves and pumps were successfully executed and results are presented herein. Excellent modelling performance was achieved for analysing both normal and pressure deficient conditions of the WDSs. Detailed computational efficiency results of EPANET-PDX with reference to EPANET 2 are included as well

Flood Proofing Low-Income Houses in India: an Application of Climate-Sensitive Probabilistic Benefit-Cost Analysis

Poor communities in high risk areas are disproportionately affected by disasters compared to their wealthy counterparts; yet, there are few analyses to guide public decisions on pro-poor investments in disaster risk reduction. This paper illustrates an application of benefit-cost analysis (BCA) for assessing investments in structural flood proofing of low-income, high-risk houses. The analysis takes account of climate change, which is increasingly viewed as an important consideration for assessing long-term investments. Specifically, the study focuses on the Rohini river basin of India and evaluates options for constructing non-permanent and permanent residential structures on a raised plinth to protect them against flooding. The estimates show a positive benefit-cost ratio for building new houses on a raised plinth, while the ratio is less than one for demolishing existing houses to rebuild on a raised plinth. Climate change is found to significantly affect the BCA results. From a policy perspective, the analysis demonstrates the potential economic returns of raised plinths for ‘building back better’ after disasters, or as a part of good housing design practice

Dust formation around AGB and SAGB stars: a trend with metallicity?

We calculate the dust formed around AGB and SAGB stars of metallicity Z=0.008 by following the evolution of models with masses in the range 1M<M<8M throughthe thermal pulses phase, and assuming that dust forms via condensation of molecules within a wind expanding isotropically from the stellar surface. We find that, because of the strong Hot Bottom Burning (HBB) experienced, high mass models produce silicates, whereas lower mass objects are predicted to be surrounded by carbonaceous grains; the transition between the two regimes occurs at a threshold mass of 3.5M. These fndings are consistent with the results presented in a previous investigation, for Z=0.001. However, in the present higher metallicity case, the production of silicates in the more massive stars continues for the whole AGB phase, because the HBB experienced is softer at Z=0.008 than at Z=0.001, thus the oxygen in the envelope, essential for the formation of water molecules, is never consumed completely. The total amount of dust formed for a given mass experiencing HBB increases with metallicity, because of the higher abundance of silicon, and the softer HBB, both factors favouring a higher rate of silicates production. This behaviour is not found in low mass stars,because the carbon enrichment of the stellar surface layers, due to repeated Third Drege Up episodes, is almost independent of the metallicity. Regarding cosmic dust enrichment by intermediate mass stars, we find that the cosmic yield at Z=0.008 is a factor 5 larger than at Z=0.001. In the lower metallicity case carbon dust dominates after about 300 Myr, but at Z=0.008 the dust mass is dominated by silicates at all times,with a prompt enrichment occurring after about 40 Myr, associated with the evolution of stars with masses M =7.5 -8M.Comment: 14 pages, 10 figures, 2 Tables, accepted for publication in MNRA

On the source of the late-time infrared luminosity of SN 1998S and other type II supernovae

We present late-time near-infrared (NIR) and optical observations of the type IIn SN 1998S. The NIR photometry spans 333-1242 days after explosion, while the NIR and optical spectra cover 333-1191 days and 305-1093 days respectively. The NIR photometry extends to the M'-band (4.7 mu), making SN 1998S only the second ever supernova for which such a long IR wavelength has been detected. The shape and evolution of the H alpha and HeI 1.083 mu line profiles indicate a powerful interaction with a progenitor wind, as well as providing evidence of dust condensation within the ejecta. The latest optical spectrum suggests that the wind had been flowing for at least 430 years. The intensity and rise of the HK continuum towards longer wavelengths together with the relatively bright L' and M' magnitudes shows that the NIR emission was due to hot dust newly-formed in supernovae may provide the ejecta and/or pre-existing dust in the progenitor circumstellar medium (CSM). [ABRIDGED] Possible origins for the NIR emission are considered. Significant radioactive heating of ejecta dust is ruled out, as is shock/X-ray-precursor heating of CSM dust. More plausible sources are (a) an IR-echo from CSM dust driven by the UV/optical peak luminosity, and (b) emission from newly-condensed dust which formed within a cool, dense shell produced by the ejecta shock/CSM interaction. We argue that the evidence favours the condensing dust hypothesis, although an IR-echo is not ruled out. Within the condensing-dust scenario, the IR luminosity indicates the presence of at least 0.001 solar masses of dust in the ejecta, and probably considerably more. Finally, we show that the late-time intrinsic (K-L') evolution of type II supernovae may provide a useful tool for determining the presence or absence of a massive CSM around their progenitor stars.Comment: 23 pages, 15 figures, to be published in MNRA

The escape of ionising radiation from high-redshift dwarf galaxies

The UV escape fraction from high-redshift galaxies plays a key role in models of cosmic reionisation. Because it is currently not possible to deduce the escape fractions during the epoch of reionisation from observations, we have to rely on numerical simulations. Our aim is to better constrain the escape fraction from high-redshift dwarf galaxies, as these are the most likely sources responsible for reionising the Universe. We employ a N-body/SPH method that includes realistic prescriptions for the physical processes that are important for the evolution of dwarf galaxies. These models are post-processed with radiative transfer to determine the escape fraction of ionising radiation. We perform a parameter study to assess the influence of the spin parameter, gas fraction and formation redshift of the galaxy and study the importance of numerical parameters as resolution, source distribution and local gas clearing. We find that the UV escape fraction from high-redshift dwarf galaxies that have formed a rotationally supported disc lie between 1e-5 and 0.1. The mass and angular momentum of the galaxy are the most important parameters that determine the escape fraction. We compare our results to previous work and discuss the uncertainties of our models. The low escape fraction we find for high-redshift dwarf galaxies is balanced by their high stellar content, resulting in an efficiency parameter for stars that is only marginally lower than the values found by semi-analytic models of reionisation. We therefore conclude that dwarf galaxies play an important role in cosmic reionisation also after the initial starburst phase, when the gas has settled into a disc.Comment: 19 pages, 14 figures. Accepted for publication in A&

Optical and infrared observations of the Type IIP SN2002hh from day 3 to 397

We present optical and infrared (IR) observations of the type IIP SN2002hh from 3 to 397 days after explosion. The optical spectroscopic (4-397d) and photometric (3-278d) data are complemented by spectroscopic (137-381d) and photometric (137-314d) data acquired at IR wavelengths. This is the first time L-band spectra have ever been successfully obtained for a supernova at a distance beyond the Local Group. The VRI light curves in the first 40 days reveal SN2002hh to be a SN IIP (plateau) - the most common of all core-collapse supernovae. SN2002hh is one of the most highly extinguished supernovae ever investigated. To provide a good match between its early-time spectrum and a coeval spectrum of the Type IIP SN1999em, as well as maintaining consistency with KI interstellar absorption, we invoke a 2-component extinction model. One component is due to the combined effect of the interstellar medium of our Milky Way Galaxy and the SN host galaxy, while the other component is due to a "dust pocket" where the grains have a mean size smaller than in the interstellar medium. The early-time optical light curves of SNe 1999em and 2002hh are generally well-matched, as are the radioactive tails of these two SNe and SN1987A. The late-time similarity of the SN2002hh optical light curves to those of SN1987A, together with measurements of the optical/IR luminosity and [FeII] 1.257mu emission indicate that 0.07 +- 0.02 Msun of Ni 56 was ejected by SN2002hh. [... ABRIDGED...] From the [OI] 6300,6364 A doublet luminosity we infer a 16-18 Msun main-sequence progenitor star. The progenitor of SN2002hh was probably a red supergiant with a substantial, dusty wind.Comment: 32 pages, 30 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA