Flood-risk mapping: contributions towards an enhanced assessment of extreme events and associated risks

Currently, a shift from classical flood protection as engineering task towards integrated flood risk management concepts can be observed. In this context, a more consequent consideration of extreme events which exceed the design event of flood protection structures and failure scenarios such as dike breaches have to be investigated. Therefore, this study aims to enhance existing methods for hazard and risk assessment for extreme events and is divided into three parts. In the first part, a regionalization approach for flood peak discharges was further developed and substantiated, especially regarding recurrence intervals of 200 to 10 000 years and a large number of small ungauged catchments. Model comparisons show that more confidence in such flood estimates for ungauged areas and very long recurrence intervals may be given as implied by statistical analysis alone. The hydraulic simulation in the second part is oriented towards hazard mapping and risk analyses covering the whole spectrum of relevant flood events. As the hydrodynamic simulation is directly coupled with a GIS, the results can be easily processed as local inundation depths for spatial risk analyses. For this, a new GIS-based software tool was developed, being presented in the third part, which enables estimations of the direct flood damage to single buildings or areas based on different established stage-damage functions. Furthermore, a new multifactorial approach for damage estimation is presented, aiming at the improvement of damage estimation on local scale by considering factors like building quality, contamination and precautionary measures. The methods and results from this study form the base for comprehensive risk analyses and flood management strategies

CEDIM Risk Explorer ? a map server solution in the project "Risk Map Germany"

International audienceThe project "Risk Map Germany" at the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) aims at visualizing hazards, vulnerabilities and risks associated with natural and man made hazards. CEDIM as an interdisciplinary project unified various expertise like earthquake, storm and flood disaster research. Our aim was to visualize the manifold data exploration in thematic maps. The implemented Web-GIS solution "CEDIM Risk Explorer" represents the map visualizations of the different risk research. This Web-GIS integrates results from interdisciplinary work as maps of hazard, vulnerability and risk in one application and offers therefore new cognitions to the user by enabling visual comparisons. The present paper starts with a project introduction and a literature review of distributed GIS environments. Further the methods of map realization and visualization in the selected technical solution is worked out. Finally, the conclusions give the perspectives for future developments to the "CEDIM Risk Explorer"

Long-Term Mortality of Patients With Osteoarthritis After Joint Replacement: Prognostic Value of Preoperative and Postoperative Pain and Function

Objective: To investigate whether osteoarthritis (OA)-specific assessment values (i.e., Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index [WOMAC]) and generic pain and function (visual analog scale, Hanover Functionality Status Questionnaire) measured before and 12 months after arthroplasty are associated with the risk of long-term mortality in a cohort of patients with advanced OA of the hip or knee. Methods: The Ulm Osteoarthritis Study was a prospective cohort study of OA patients with unilateral total hip or knee replacement between January 1995 and December 1996. Correlation coefficients were calculated to describe the agreement between the different assessments. Mortality was assessed during the follow-up period (last update July 2019). Cox proportional regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality after adjusting for covariates. Results: Arthroplasty was accompanied by a clear reduction in pain and improved function throughout all assessments in the 706 included patients. The results of the adjusted Cox models showed no relationship between baseline and follow-up joint-specific WOMAC assessments and long-term mortality. However, an independent increased risk of mortality was found with generic function assessments. In the final adjusted model, the HR for the 12-month follow-up value was 1.79 (95% confidence interval 1.24–2.60) in the group with clinically relevant impairment versus the reference group. Conclusion: Poor function based on the generic assessment was associated with increased long-term mortality, suggesting that functional impairments in daily life activities may be more important for long-term survival than OA-specific impairments in this patient group

Five years’ trajectories of functionality and pain in patients after hip or knee replacement and association with long-term patient survival

To describe the 5 years’ trajectories in functionality and pain of patients with hip or knee osteoarthritis and arthroplasty and analyze the association of these with long-term patients survival. Patients with OA receiving total hip or knee arthroplasty were recruited and completed two sets of standardized questionnaires for functionality and pain 6, 12, and 60 months postoperatively. Multivariate mixed models were conducted to assess trajectories over time and the resulting improvement per month during the last time period was included in a landmark-model to estimate adjusted hazard ratios for mortality. In total 809 patients with joint replacement were included (mean age 65.0 years, 62.2% female), 407 patients died (median follow-up 18.4 years). Both instruments of functionality and pain showed extensive improvement during the first 6 months. Baseline and change in functionality (both p < 0.001) and pain (p = 0.02) during the first 6 months were associated with mortality. Better values in functionality corresponded with improved survival whereas the association with the pain scores was inverse. In patients with hip and knee OA, an explicit improvement in function is seen within the first 6 months after arthroplasty. In addition, especially the functionality scores at baseline as well as their improvement showed an association with long-term patient survival

Overweight/Obesity and Respiratory and Allergic Disease in Children: International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) Phase Two

BackgroundChildhood obesity and asthma are increasing worldwide. A possible link between the two conditions has been postulated.MethodsCross-sectional studies of stratified random samples of 8–12-year-old children (n = 10 652) (16 centres in affluent and 8 centres in non-affluent countries) used the standardized methodology of ISAAC Phase Two. Respiratory and allergic symptoms were ascertained by parental questionnaires. Tests for allergic disease were performed. Height and weight were measured, and overweight and obesity were defined according to international definitions. Prevalence rates and prevalence odds ratios were calculated.ResultsOverweight (odds ratio = 1.14, 95%-confidence interval: 0.98; 1.33) and obesity (odds ratio = 1.67, 95%-confidence interval: 1.25; 2.21) were related to wheeze. The relationship was stronger in affluent than in non-affluent centres. Similar results were found for cough and phlegm, rhinitis and eczema but the associations were mostly driven by children with wheeze. There was a clear association of overweight and obesity with airways obstruction (change in FEV1/FVC, −0.90, 95%-confidence interval: −1.33%; −0.47%, for overweight and −2.46%, 95%-confidence interval: −3.84%; −1.07%, for obesity) whereas the results for the other objective markers, including atopy, were null.ConclusionsOur data from a large international child population confirm that there is a strong relation of body mass index with wheeze especially in affluent countries. Moreover, body mass index is associated with an objective marker of airways obstruction (FEV1/FVC) but no other objective markers of respiratory and allergic disorders

Detection of variable VHE gamma-ray emission from the extra-galactic gamma-ray binary LMC P3

Context. Recently, the high-energy (HE, 0.1-100 GeV) $\gamma$-ray emission from the object LMC P3 in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) has been discovered to be modulated with a 10.3-day period, making it the first extra-galactic $\gamma$-ray binary. Aims. This work aims at the detection of very-high-energy (VHE, >100 GeV) $\gamma$-ray emission and the search for modulation of the VHE signal with the orbital period of the binary system. Methods. LMC P3 has been observed with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.); the acceptance-corrected exposure time is 100 h. The data set has been folded with the known orbital period of the system in order to test for variability of the emission. Energy spectra are obtained for the orbit-averaged data set, and for the orbital phase bin around the VHE maximum. Results. VHE $\gamma$-ray emission is detected with a statistical significance of 6.4 $\sigma$. The data clearly show variability which is phase-locked to the orbital period of the system. Periodicity cannot be deduced from the H.E.S.S. data set alone. The orbit-averaged luminosity in the $1-10$ TeV energy range is $(1.4 \pm 0.2) \times 10^{35}$ erg/s. A luminosity of $(5 \pm 1) \times 10^{35}$ erg/s is reached during 20% of the orbit. HE and VHE $\gamma$-ray emissions are anti-correlated. LMC P3 is the most luminous $\gamma$-ray binary known so far.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in A&

Longitudinal double spin asymmetries in single hadron quasi-real photoproduction at high pTp_T

We measured the longitudinal double spin asymmetries $A_{LL}$ for single hadron muo-production off protons and deuterons at photon virtuality $Q^2$ < 1(GeV/$\it c$)$^2$ for transverse hadron momenta $p_T$ in the range 0.7 GeV/$\it c$ to 4 GeV/$\it c$ . They were determined using COMPASS data taken with a polarised muon beam of 160 GeV/$\it c$ or 200 GeV/$\it c$ impinging on polarised $\mathrm{{}^6LiD}$ or $\mathrm{NH_3}$ targets. The experimental asymmetries are compared to next-to-leading order pQCD calculations, and are sensitive to the gluon polarisation $\Delta G$ inside the nucleon in the range of the nucleon momentum fraction carried by gluons $0.05 < x_g < 0.2$

Interplay among transversity induced asymmetries in hadron leptoproduction

In the fragmentation of a transversely polarized quark several left-right asymmetries are possible for the hadrons in the jet. When only one unpolarized hadron is selected, it exhibits an azimuthal modulation known as Collins effect. When a pair of oppositely charged hadrons is observed, three asymmetries can be considered, a di-hadron asymmetry and two single hadron asymmetries. In lepton deep inelastic scattering on transversely polarized nucleons all these asymmetries are coupled with the transversity distribution. From the high statistics COMPASS data on oppositely charged hadron-pair production we have investigated for the first time the dependence of these three asymmetries on the difference of the azimuthal angles of the two hadrons. The similarity of transversity induced single and di-hadron asymmetries is discussed. A new analysis of the data allows to establish quantitative relationships among them, providing for the first time strong experimental indication that the underlying fragmentation mechanisms are all driven by a common physical process.Comment: 6 figure

Interplay among transversity induced asymmetries in hadron leptoproduction

In the fragmentation of a transversely polarized quark several left-right asymmetries are possible for the hadrons in the jet. When only one unpolarized hadron is selected, it exhibits an azimuthal modulation known as Collins effect. When a pair of oppositely charged hadrons is observed, three asymmetries can be considered, a di-hadron asymmetry and two single hadron asymmetries. In lepton deep inelastic scattering on transversely polarized nucleons all these asymmetries are coupled with the transversity distribution. From the high statistics COMPASS data on oppositely charged hadron-pair production we have investigated for the first time the dependence of these three asymmetries on the difference of the azimuthal angles of the two hadrons. The similarity of transversity induced single and di-hadron asymmetries is discussed. A new analysis of the data allows to establish quantitative relationships among them, providing for the first time strong experimental indication that the underlying fragmentation mechanisms are all driven by a common physical process.Comment: 6 figure