Statistical Estimation of Flow Components and Diffusivity from Ocean Drifter Velocity Observations

Position and velocity measurements from freely-drifting surface buoys, known as drifters, provide a unique observational dataset for measuring ocean surface flow. The most immediate value of such observations is to aggregate data across drifters to determine the currents and the mean flow at given spatial locations. However, with more sophisticated models and statistical estimation techniques we can capture additional flow components from drifter data, as we shall demonstrate in this thesis. First, we shall demonstrate how data from closely-deployed collections of drifters can be jointly modelled to extract and identify mesoscale flow components—such as strain, vorticity, and divergence—as well as submesoscale components such as diffusivity, and background components such as inertial oscillations. We apply our methods to the LatMix deployment of drifters in the Sargasso Sea in 2011. Identification of so many flow components is made possible by considering the relative motions of the drifters with respect to each other, rather than in isolation. In the proceeding two chapters we shall build on these findings and provide evidence, both from simulation results and from analytically derived statistical properties, to demonstrate how the identification and estimation of flow components is expected to statistically behave as both the sampling features (e.g. number of drifters and length of deployment) and as both the sampling features (e.g. number of drifters and length of deployment) and the underlying flow field changes. Finally, we perform a separate analysis on Global Drifter Program data, where drifters are too far apart to be modelled relatively, and we instead perform a mean-flow and diffusivity separation using a novel estimator for estimating large-scale diffusivity which we propose from the spectral analysis of time series. A central goal of this thesis is to quantify the statistical error of parameter estimates of flow components, both in terms of bias and variance, and to then tune estimation methods to reduce these errors as much as possible. the underlying flow field changes. Finally, we perform a separate analysis on Global Drifter Program data, where drifters are too far apart to be modelled relatively, and we instead perform a mean-flow and diffusivity separation using a novel estimator for estimating large-scale diffusivity which we propose from the spectral analysis of time series. A central goal of this thesis is to quantify the statistical error of parameter estimates of flow components, both in terms of bias and variance, and to then tune estimation methods to reduce these errors as much as possible

Separating Mesoscale and Submesoscale Flows from Clustered Drifter Trajectories

Drifters deployed in close proximity collectively provide a unique observational data set with which to separate mesoscale and submesoscale flows. In this paper we provide a principled approach for doing so by fitting observed velocities to a local Taylor expansion of the velocity flow field. We demonstrate how to estimate mesoscale and submesoscale quantities that evolve slowly over time, as well as their associated statistical uncertainty. We show that in practice the mesoscale component of our model can explain much first and second-moment variability in drifter velocities, especially at low frequencies. This results in much lower and more meaningful measures of submesoscale diffusivity, which would otherwise be contaminated by unresolved mesoscale flow. We quantify these effects theoretically via computing Lagrangian frequency spectra, and demonstrate the usefulness of our methodology through simulations as well as with real observations from the LatMix deployment of drifters. The outcome of this method is a full Lagrangian decomposition of each drifter trajectory into three components that represent the background, mesoscale, and submesoscale flow

CLRM-14. OPEN-LABEL, MULTINATIONAL, MULTICENTER, PHASE 3B/4 STUDY OF TRASTUZUMAB DERUXTECAN (T-DXD) IN PATIENTS WITH OR WITHOUT BASELINE BRAIN METASTASIS (BM) WITH PREVIOUSLY TREATED ADVANCED/METASTATIC HUMAN EPIDERMAL GROWTH FACTOR RECEPTOR 2–POSITIVE BREAST CANCER (HER2+ BC): DESTINY-BREAST12

Abstract BACKGROUND Despite treatment advances, up to 50% of patients with advanced HER2+ BC develop BM (Zimmer. Cancer Rep. 2020). Patients with HER2+ BC with BM have a worse prognosis than patients without BM. In DESTINY-Breast01, T-DXd demonstrated efficacy in the overall population and preliminary efficacy in a subgroup with stable BM, with a confirmed objective response rate (ORR) of 61.4% and an extracranial confirmed ORR by independent central review (ICR) of 58.3%, median progression-free survival (PFS) of 19.4 and 18.1 mo, and median duration of response (DOR) of 20.8 and 16.9 mo (Modi. Cancer Res. 2021; Jerusalem. Ann Oncol. 2020). Here we describe a trial evaluating T-DXd in patients with previously treated advanced/metastatic HER2+ BC ±BM. DESIGN DESTINY-Breast12 (NCT04739761) is an open-label, multicenter, international (86 sites in the US, Europe, Australia, and Japan), phase 3b/4 study assessing T-DXd 5.4 mg/kg q3w efficacy and safety in patients with previously treated advanced/metastatic HER2+ BC ±BM that progressed with ≥1 prior anti-HER2–based regimen and received ≤2 lines of therapy in the metastatic setting (excluding patients with prior tucatinib). Patients (n=250/cohort) will be enrolled in cohort 1 (−BM at baseline) or 2 (+BM at baseline). BM must be untreated and not needing immediate local therapy or previously treated and stable or progressing. Primary endpoints are ORR (cohort 1) and PFS (cohort 2) (both by RECIST version 1.1 per ICR). Secondary endpoints are OS, DOR, time to progression, duration of subsequent therapy, PFS2, safety, and changes in symptoms, functioning, and QOL in both cohorts; incidence of new symptomatic CNS metastasis (CNSM) in cohort 1; and ORR and CNS ORR by RECIST 1.1 per ICR, CNS PFS and DOR, and time to new CNSM in cohort 2. This is an encore; the original presentation will be at The European Society for Medical Oncology 2021

A crossover randomised controlled trial of oral mandibular advancement devices for obstructive sleep apnoea-hypopnoea (TOMADO)

Rationale Mandibular advancement devices (MADs) are used to treat obstructive sleep apnoea-hypopnoea syndrome (OSAHS) but evidence is lacking regarding their clinical and cost-effectiveness in less severe disease. Objectives To compare clinical- and cost-effectiveness of a range of MADs against no treatment in mild to moderate OSAHS. Measurements and methods This open-label, randomised, controlled, crossover trial was undertaken at a UK sleep centre. Adults with Apnoea-Hypopnoea Index (AHI) 5–<30/h and Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) score ≥9 underwent 6 weeks of treatment with three nonadjustable MADs: self-moulded (SleepPro 1; SP1); semi-bespoke (SleepPro 2; SP2); fully-bespoke MAD (bMAD); and 4 weeks no treatment. Primary outcome was AHI scored by a polysomnographer blinded to treatment. Secondary outcomes included ESS, quality of life, resource use and cost. Main results 90 patients were randomised and 83 were analysed. All devices reduced AHI compared with no treatment by 26% (95% CI 11% to 38%, p=0.001) for SP1, 33% (95% CI 24% to 41%) for SP2 and 36% (95% CI 24% to 45%, p<0.001) for bMAD. ESS was 1.51 (95% CI 0.73 to 2.29, p<0.001, SP1) to 2.37 (95% CI 1.53 to 3.22, p<0.001, bMAD) lower than no treatment (p<0.001 for all). Compliance was lower for SP1, which was the least preferred treatment at trial exit. All devices were cost-effective compared with no treatment at a £20 000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) threshold. SP2 was the most cost-effective up to £39 800/QALY. Conclusions Non-adjustable MADs achieve clinically important improvements in mild to moderate OSAHS and are cost-effective

Effect of Home Noninvasive Ventilation With Oxygen Therapy vs Oxygen Therapy Alone on Hospital Readmission or Death After an Acute COPD Exacerbation

Importance: Outcomes after exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) requiring acute noninvasive ventilation (NIV) are poor and there are few treatments to prevent hospital readmission and death. Objective: To investigate the effect of home NIV plus oxygen on time to readmission or death in patients with persistent hypercapnia after an acute COPD exacerbation. Design, Setting, and Participants: A randomized clinical trial of patients with persistent hypercapnia (Paco2 >53 mm Hg) 2 weeks to 4 weeks after resolution of respiratory acidemia, who were recruited from 13 UK centers between 2010 and 2015. Exclusion criteria included obesity (body mass index [BMI] >35), obstructive sleep apnea syndrome, or other causes of respiratory failure. Of 2021 patients screened, 124 were eligible. Interventions: There were 59 patients randomized to home oxygen alone (median oxygen flow rate, 1.0 L/min [interquartile range {IQR}, 0.5-2.0 L/min]) and 57 patients to home oxygen plus home NIV (median oxygen flow rate, 1.0 L/min [IQR, 0.5-1.5 L/min]). The median home ventilator settings were an inspiratory positive airway pressure of 24 (IQR, 22-26) cm H2O, an expiratory positive airway pressure of 4 (IQR, 4-5) cm H2O, and a backup rate of 14 (IQR, 14-16) breaths/minute. Main Outcomes and Measures: Time to readmission or death within 12 months adjusted for the number of previous COPD admissions, previous use of long-term oxygen, age, and BMI. Results: A total of 116 patients (mean [SD] age of 67 [10] years, 53% female, mean BMI of 21.6 [IQR, 18.2-26.1], mean [SD] forced expiratory volume in the first second of expiration of 0.6 L [0.2 L], and mean [SD] Paco2 while breathing room air of 59 [7] mm Hg) were randomized. Sixty-four patients (28 in home oxygen alone and 36 in home oxygen plus home NIV) completed the 12-month study period. The median time to readmission or death was 4.3 months (IQR, 1.3-13.8 months) in the home oxygen plus home NIV group vs 1.4 months (IQR, 0.5-3.9 months) in the home oxygen alone group, adjusted hazard ratio of 0.49 (95% CI, 0.31-0.77; P = .002). The 12-month risk of readmission or death was 63.4% in the home oxygen plus home NIV group vs 80.4% in the home oxygen alone group, absolute risk reduction of 17.0% (95% CI, 0.1%-34.0%). At 12 months, 16 patients had died in the home oxygen plus home NIV group vs 19 in the home oxygen alone group. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with persistent hypercapnia following an acute exacerbation of COPD, adding home noninvasive ventilation to home oxygen therapy prolonged the time to readmission or death within 12 months. Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00990132

The cost-effectiveness of domiciliary non-invasive ventilation in patients with end-stage chronic obstructive pulmonary disease:a systematic review and economic evaluation

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a chronic progressive lung disease characterised by non-reversible airflow obstruction. Exacerbations are a key cause of morbidity and mortality and place a considerable burden on health-care systems. While there is evidence that patients benefit from non-invasive ventilation (NIV) in hospital during an acute exacerbation, evidence supporting home use for more stable COPD patients is limited. In the UK, domiciliary NIV is considered on health economic grounds in patients after three hospital admissions for acute hypercapnic respiratory failure. Objective: To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of domiciliary NIV by systematic review and economic evaluation. Data sources: Bibliographic databases, conference proceedings and ongoing trial registries up to September 2014. Methods: Standard systematic review methods were used for identifying relevant clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness studies assessing NIV compared with usual care or comparing different types of NIV. Risk of bias was assessed using Cochrane guidelines and relevant economic checklists. Results for primary effectiveness outcomes (mortality, hospitalisations, exacerbations and quality of life) were presented, where possible, in forest plots. A speculative Markov decision model was developed to compare the cost-effectiveness of domiciliary NIV with usual care from a UK perspective for post-hospital and more stable populations separately. Results: Thirty-one controlled effectiveness studies were identified, which report a variety of outcomes. For stable patients, a modest volume of evidence found no benefit from domiciliary NIV for survival and some non-significant beneficial trends for hospitalisations and quality of life. For post-hospital patients, no benefit from NIV could be shown in terms of survival (from randomised controlled trials) and findings for hospital admissions were inconsistent and based on limited evidence. No conclusions could be drawn regarding potential benefit from different types of NIV. No cost-effectiveness studies of domiciliary NIV were identified. Economic modelling suggested that NIV may be cost-effective in a stable population at a threshold of £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio £28,162), but this is associated with uncertainty. In the case of the post-hospital population, results for three separate base cases ranged from usual care dominating to NIV being cost-effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of less than £10,000 per QALY gained. All estimates were sensitive to effectiveness estimates, length of benefit from NIV (currently unknown) and some costs. Modelling suggested that reductions in the rate of hospital admissions per patient per year of 24% and 15% in the stable and post-hospital populations, respectively, are required for NIV to be cost-effective. Limitations: Evidence on key clinical outcomes remains limited, particularly quality-of-life and long-term (> 2 years) effects. Economic modelling should be viewed as speculative because of uncertainty around effect estimates, baseline risks, length of benefit of NIV and limited quality-of-life/utility data. Conclusions: The cost-effectiveness of domiciliary NIV remains uncertain and the findings in this report are sensitive to emergent data. Further evidence is required to identify patients most likely to benefit from domiciliary NIV and to establish optimum time points for starting NIV and equipment settings. Future work recommendations: The results from this report will need to be re-examined in the light of any new trial results, particularly in terms of reducing the uncertainty in the economic model. Any new randomised controlled trials should consider including a sham non-invasive ventilation arm and/or a higher- and lower-pressure arm. Individual participant data analyses may help to determine whether or not there are any patient characteristics or equipment settings that are predictive of a benefit of NIV and to establish optimum time points for starting (and potentially discounting) NIV. Study registration: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42012003286. Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme

The Finite Difference Computation Of Natural Convection In An Enclosed Rectangular Cavity.

PhDChemical engineeringUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/179525/2/6408224.pd

Preparation and characterisation of Si-Al-N-C ceramics

Available from British Library Document Supply Centre- DSC:DX172664 / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreSIGLEGBUnited Kingdo