Statistical Estimation of Flow Components and Diffusivity from Ocean Drifter Velocity Observations

Position and velocity measurements from freely-drifting surface buoys, known as drifters, provide a unique observational dataset for measuring ocean surface flow. The most immediate value of such observations is to aggregate data across drifters to determine the currents and the mean flow at given spatial locations. However, with more sophisticated models and statistical estimation techniques we can capture additional flow components from drifter data, as we shall demonstrate in this thesis. First, we shall demonstrate how data from closely-deployed collections of drifters can be jointly modelled to extract and identify mesoscale flow components—such as strain, vorticity, and divergence—as well as submesoscale components such as diffusivity, and background components such as inertial oscillations. We apply our methods to the LatMix deployment of drifters in the Sargasso Sea in 2011. Identification of so many flow components is made possible by considering the relative motions of the drifters with respect to each other, rather than in isolation. In the proceeding two chapters we shall build on these findings and provide evidence, both from simulation results and from analytically derived statistical properties, to demonstrate how the identification and estimation of flow components is expected to statistically behave as both the sampling features (e.g. number of drifters and length of deployment) and as both the sampling features (e.g. number of drifters and length of deployment) and the underlying flow field changes. Finally, we perform a separate analysis on Global Drifter Program data, where drifters are too far apart to be modelled relatively, and we instead perform a mean-flow and diffusivity separation using a novel estimator for estimating large-scale diffusivity which we propose from the spectral analysis of time series. A central goal of this thesis is to quantify the statistical error of parameter estimates of flow components, both in terms of bias and variance, and to then tune estimation methods to reduce these errors as much as possible. the underlying flow field changes. Finally, we perform a separate analysis on Global Drifter Program data, where drifters are too far apart to be modelled relatively, and we instead perform a mean-flow and diffusivity separation using a novel estimator for estimating large-scale diffusivity which we propose from the spectral analysis of time series. A central goal of this thesis is to quantify the statistical error of parameter estimates of flow components, both in terms of bias and variance, and to then tune estimation methods to reduce these errors as much as possible

Separating Mesoscale and Submesoscale Flows from Clustered Drifter Trajectories

Drifters deployed in close proximity collectively provide a unique observational data set with which to separate mesoscale and submesoscale flows. In this paper we provide a principled approach for doing so by fitting observed velocities to a local Taylor expansion of the velocity flow field. We demonstrate how to estimate mesoscale and submesoscale quantities that evolve slowly over time, as well as their associated statistical uncertainty. We show that in practice the mesoscale component of our model can explain much first and second-moment variability in drifter velocities, especially at low frequencies. This results in much lower and more meaningful measures of submesoscale diffusivity, which would otherwise be contaminated by unresolved mesoscale flow. We quantify these effects theoretically via computing Lagrangian frequency spectra, and demonstrate the usefulness of our methodology through simulations as well as with real observations from the LatMix deployment of drifters. The outcome of this method is a full Lagrangian decomposition of each drifter trajectory into three components that represent the background, mesoscale, and submesoscale flow

Clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness results from the randomised controlled Trial of Oral Mandibular Advancement Devices for Obstructive sleep apnoea–hypopnoea (TOMADO) and long-term economic analysis of oral devices and continuous positive airway pressure

BackgroundObstructive sleep apnoea–hypopnoea (OSAH) causes excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS), impairs quality of life (QoL) and increases cardiovascular disease and road traffic accident risks. Continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) treatment is clinically effective but undermined by intolerance, and its cost-effectiveness is borderline in milder cases. Mandibular advancement devices (MADs) are another option, but evidence is lacking regarding their clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness in milder disease.Objectives(1) Conduct a randomised controlled trial (RCT) examining the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of MADs against no treatment in mild to moderate OSAH. (2) Update systematic reviews and an existing health economic decision model with data from the Trial of Oral Mandibular Advancement Devices for Obstructive sleep apnoea–hypopnoea (TOMADO) and newly published results to better inform long-term clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of MADs and CPAP in mild to moderate OSAH.TOMADOA crossover RCT comparing clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of three MADs: self-moulded [SleepPro 1™ (SP1); Meditas Ltd, Winchester, UK]; semibespoke [SleepPro 2™ (SP2); Meditas Ltd, Winchester, UK]; and fully bespoke [bespoke MAD (bMAD); NHS Oral-Maxillofacial Laboratory, Addenbrooke’s Hospital, Cambridge, UK] against no treatment, in 90 adults with mild to moderate OSAH. All devices improved primary outcome [apnoea–hypopnoea index (AHI)] compared with no treatment: relative risk 0.74 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62 to 0.89] for SP1; relative risk 0.67 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.76) for SP2; and relative risk 0.64 (95% CI 0.55 to 0.76) for bMAD (p &lt; 0.001). Differences between MADs were not significant. Sleepiness [as measured by the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS)] was scored 1.51 [95% CI 0.73 to 2.29 (SP1)] to 2.37 [95% CI 1.53 to 3.22 (bMAD)] lower than no treatment (p &lt; 0.001), with SP2 and bMAD significantly better than SP1. All MADs improved disease-specific QoL. Compliance was lower for SP1, which was unpopular at trial exit. At 4 weeks, all devices were cost-effective at £20,000/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), with SP2 the best value below £39,800/QALY.Meta-analysisA MEDLINE, EMBASE and Science Citation Index search updating two existing systematic reviews (one from November 2006 and the other from June 2008) to August 2013 identified 77 RCTs in adult OSAH patients comparing MAD with conservative management (CM), MADs with CPAP or CPAP with CM. MADs and CPAP significantly improved AHI [MAD −9.3/hour (p &lt; 0.001); CPAP −25.4/hour (p &lt; 0.001)]. Effect difference between CPAP and MADs was 7.0/hour (p &lt; 0.001), favouring CPAP. No trials compared CPAP with MADs in mild OSAH. MAD and CPAP reduced the ESS score similarly [MAD 1.6 (p &lt; 0.001); CPAP 1.6 (p &lt; 0.001)].Long-term cost-effectivenessAn existing model assessed lifetime cost–utility of MAD and CPAP in mild to moderate OSAH, using the revised meta-analysis to update input values. The TOMADO provided utility estimates, mapping ESS score to European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions three-level version for device cost–utility. Using SP2 as the standard device, MADs produced higher mean costs and mean QALYs than CM [incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) £6687/QALY]. From a willingness to pay (WTP) of £15,367/QALY, CPAP is cost-effective, although the likelihood of MADs (p = 0.48) and CPAP (p = 0.49) being cost-effective is very similar. Both were better than CM, but there was much uncertainty in the choice between CPAP and MAD (at a WTP £20,000/QALY, the probability of being the most cost-effective was 47% for MAD and 52% for CPAP). When SP2 lifespan increased to 18 months, the ICER for CPAP compared with MAD became £44,066. The ICER for SP1 compared with CM was £1552, and for bMAD compared with CM the ICER was £13,836. The ICER for CPAP compared with SP1 was £89,182, but CPAP produced lower mean costs and higher mean QALYs than bMAD. Differential compliance rates for CPAP reduces cost-effectiveness so MADs become less costly and more clinically effective with CPAP compliance 90% of SP2.ConclusionsMandibular advancement devices are clinically effective and cost-effective in mild to moderate OSAH. A semi-bespoke MAD is the appropriate first choice in most patients in the short term. Future work should explore whether or not adjustable MADs give additional clinical and cost benefits. Further data on longer-term cardiovascular risk and its risk factors would reduce uncertainty in the health economic model and improve precision of effectiveness estimates.Trial registrationThis trial is registered as ISRCTN02309506.FundingThis project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full inHealth Technology Assessment; Vol. 18, No. 67. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.</jats:sec

Genotype, extrapyramidal features, and severity of variant ataxia-telangiectasia

OBJECTIVE: Variant ataxia-telangiectasia is caused by mutations that allow some retained ataxia telangiectasia-mutated (ATM) kinase activity. Here, we describe the clinical features of the largest established cohort of individuals with variant ataxia-telangiectasia and explore genotype-phenotype correlations.METHODS: Cross-sectional data were collected retrospectively. Patients were classified as variant ataxia-telangiectasia based on retained ATM kinase activity.RESULTS: The study includes 57 individuals. Mean age at assessment was 37.5 years. Most had their first symptoms by age 10 (81%). There was a diagnostic delay of more than 10 years in 68% and more than 20 years in one third of probands. Disease severity was mild in one third of patients, and 43% were still ambulant 20 years after disease onset. Only one third had predominant ataxia, and 18% had a pure extrapyramidal presentation. Individuals with extrapyramidal presentations had milder neurological disease severity. There were no significant respiratory or immunological complications, but 25% of individuals had a history of malignancy. Missense mutations were associated with milder neurological disease severity, but with a higher risk of malignancy, compared to leaky splice site mutations.INTERPRETATION: Individuals with variant ataxia-telangiectasia require malignancy surveillance and tailored management. However, our data suggest the condition may sometimes be mis- or underdiagnosed because of atypical features, including exclusive extrapyramidal symptoms, normal eye movements, and normal alpha-fetoprotein levels in some individuals. Missense mutations are associated with milder neurological presentations, but a particularly high malignancy risk, and it is important for clinicians to be aware of these phenotypes. ANN NEUROL 2019;85:170-180.</p

Using symptom-based case predictions to identify host genetic factors that contribute to COVID-19 susceptibility

Epidemiological and genetic studies on COVID-19 are currently hindered by inconsistent and limited testing policies to confirm SARS-CoV-2 infection. Recently, it was shown that it is possible to predict COVID-19 cases using cross-sectional self-reported disease-related symptoms. Here, we demonstrate that this COVID-19 prediction model has reasonable and consistent performance across multiple independent cohorts and that our attempt to improve upon this model did not result in improved predictions. Using the existing COVID- 19 prediction model, we then conducted a GWAS on the predicted phenotype using a total of 1,865 predicted cases and 29,174 controls. While we did not find any common, largeeffect variants that reached genome-wide significance, we do observe suggestive genetic associations at two SNPs (rs11844522, p = 1.9x10-7; rs5798227, p = 2.2x10-7). Explorative analyses furthermore suggest that genetic variants associated with other viral infectious diseases do not overlap with COVID-19 susceptibility and that severity of COVID-19 may have a different genetic architecture compared to COVID-19 susceptibility. This study represents a first effort that uses a symptom-based predicted phenotype as a proxy for COVID-19 in our pursuit of understanding the genetic susceptibility of the disease. We conclude that the inclusion of symptom-based predicted cases could be a useful strategy in a scenario of limited testing, either during the current COVID-19 pandemic or any future viral outbreak

The cost-effectiveness of domiciliary non-invasive ventilation in patients with end-stage chronic obstructive pulmonary disease:a systematic review and economic evaluation

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a chronic progressive lung disease characterised by non-reversible airflow obstruction. Exacerbations are a key cause of morbidity and mortality and place a considerable burden on health-care systems. While there is evidence that patients benefit from non-invasive ventilation (NIV) in hospital during an acute exacerbation, evidence supporting home use for more stable COPD patients is limited. In the UK, domiciliary NIV is considered on health economic grounds in patients after three hospital admissions for acute hypercapnic respiratory failure. Objective: To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of domiciliary NIV by systematic review and economic evaluation. Data sources: Bibliographic databases, conference proceedings and ongoing trial registries up to September 2014. Methods: Standard systematic review methods were used for identifying relevant clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness studies assessing NIV compared with usual care or comparing different types of NIV. Risk of bias was assessed using Cochrane guidelines and relevant economic checklists. Results for primary effectiveness outcomes (mortality, hospitalisations, exacerbations and quality of life) were presented, where possible, in forest plots. A speculative Markov decision model was developed to compare the cost-effectiveness of domiciliary NIV with usual care from a UK perspective for post-hospital and more stable populations separately. Results: Thirty-one controlled effectiveness studies were identified, which report a variety of outcomes. For stable patients, a modest volume of evidence found no benefit from domiciliary NIV for survival and some non-significant beneficial trends for hospitalisations and quality of life. For post-hospital patients, no benefit from NIV could be shown in terms of survival (from randomised controlled trials) and findings for hospital admissions were inconsistent and based on limited evidence. No conclusions could be drawn regarding potential benefit from different types of NIV. No cost-effectiveness studies of domiciliary NIV were identified. Economic modelling suggested that NIV may be cost-effective in a stable population at a threshold of £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio £28,162), but this is associated with uncertainty. In the case of the post-hospital population, results for three separate base cases ranged from usual care dominating to NIV being cost-effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of less than £10,000 per QALY gained. All estimates were sensitive to effectiveness estimates, length of benefit from NIV (currently unknown) and some costs. Modelling suggested that reductions in the rate of hospital admissions per patient per year of 24% and 15% in the stable and post-hospital populations, respectively, are required for NIV to be cost-effective. Limitations: Evidence on key clinical outcomes remains limited, particularly quality-of-life and long-term (> 2 years) effects. Economic modelling should be viewed as speculative because of uncertainty around effect estimates, baseline risks, length of benefit of NIV and limited quality-of-life/utility data. Conclusions: The cost-effectiveness of domiciliary NIV remains uncertain and the findings in this report are sensitive to emergent data. Further evidence is required to identify patients most likely to benefit from domiciliary NIV and to establish optimum time points for starting NIV and equipment settings. Future work recommendations: The results from this report will need to be re-examined in the light of any new trial results, particularly in terms of reducing the uncertainty in the economic model. Any new randomised controlled trials should consider including a sham non-invasive ventilation arm and/or a higher- and lower-pressure arm. Individual participant data analyses may help to determine whether or not there are any patient characteristics or equipment settings that are predictive of a benefit of NIV and to establish optimum time points for starting (and potentially discounting) NIV. Study registration: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42012003286. Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme