Quasi-periodic Gaussian processes for stellar activity: From physical to kernel parameters

In recent years, Gaussian Process (GP) regression has become widely used to analyse stellar and exoplanet time-series data sets. For spotted stars, the most popular GP covariance function is the quasi-periodic (QP) kernel, whose hyperparameters of the GP have a plausible interpretation in terms of physical properties of the star and spots. In this paper, we test the reliability of this interpretation by modelling data simulated using a spot model using a QP GP, and the recently proposed quasi-periodic plus cosine (QPC) GP, comparing the posterior distributions of the GP hyperparameters to the input parameters of the spot model. We find excellent agreement between the input stellar rotation period and the QP and QPC GP period, and very good agreement between the spot decay time-scale and the length scale of the squared exponential term. We also compare the hyperparameters derived from light and radial velocity (RV) curves for a given star, finding that the period and evolution time-scales are in good agreement. However, the harmonic complexity of the GP, while displaying no clear correlation with the spot properties in our simulations, is systematically higher for the RV than for the light-curve data. Finally, for the QP kernel, we investigate the impact of noise and time-sampling on the hyperparameters in the case of RVs. Our results indicate that good coverage of rotation period and spot evolution time-scales is more important than the total number of points, and noise characteristics govern the harmonic complexity

Acute febrile illness is associated with Rickettsia spp infection in dogs

BACKGROUND: Rickettsia conorii is transmitted by Rhipicephalus sanguineus ticks and causes Mediterranean Spotted Fever (MSF) in humans. Although dogs are considered the natural host of the vector, the clinical and epidemiological significance of R. conorii infection in dogs remains unclear. The aim of this prospective study was to investigate whether Rickettsia infection causes febrile illness in dogs living in areas endemic for human MSF. METHODS: Dogs from southern Italy with acute fever (n = 99) were compared with case–control dogs with normal body temperatures (n = 72). Serology and real-time PCR were performed for Rickettsia spp., Ehrlichia canis, Anaplasma phagocytophilum/A. platys and Leishmania infantum. Conventional PCR was performed for Babesia spp. and Hepatozoon spp. Acute and convalescent antibodies to R. conorii, E. canis and A. phagocytophilum were determined. RESULTS: The seroprevalence rates at first visit for R. conorii, E. canis, A. phagocytophilum and L. infantum were 44.8%, 48.5%, 37.8% and 17.6%, respectively. The seroconversion rates for R. conorii, E. canis and A. phagocytophilum were 20.7%, 14.3% and 8.8%, respectively. The molecular positive rates at first visit for Rickettsia spp., E. canis, A. phagocytophilum, A. platys, L. infantum, Babesia spp. and Hepatozoon spp. were 1.8%, 4.1%, 0%, 2.3%, 11.1%, 2.3% and 0.6%, respectively. Positive PCR for E. canis (7%), Rickettsia spp. (3%), Babesia spp. (4.0%) and Hepatozoon spp. (1.0%) were found only in febrile dogs. The DNA sequences obtained from Rickettsia and Babesia PCRs positive samples were 100% identical to the R. conorii and Babesia vogeli sequences in GenBank®, respectively. Febrile illness was statistically associated with acute and convalescent positive R. conorii antibodies, seroconversion to R. conorii, E. canis positive PCR, and positivity to any tick pathogen PCRs. Fourteen febrile dogs (31.8%) were diagnosed with Rickettsia spp. infection based on seroconversion and/or PCR while only six afebrile dogs (12.5%) seroconverted (P = 0.0248). The most common clinical findings of dogs with Rickettsia infection diagnosed by seroconversion and/or PCR were fever, myalgia, lameness, elevation of C-reactive protein, thrombocytopenia and hypoalbuminemia. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates acute febrile illness associated with Rickettsia infection in dogs living in endemic areas of human MSF based on seroconversion alone or in combination with PCR

“Excellence R Us”: university research and the fetishisation of excellence

The rhetoric of “excellence” is pervasive across the academy. It is used to refer to research outputs as well as researchers, theory and education, individuals and organisations, from art history to zoology. But does “excellence” actually mean anything? Does this pervasive narrative of “excellence” do any good? Drawing on a range of sources we interrogate “excellence” as a concept and find that it has no intrinsic meaning in academia. Rather it functions as a linguistic interchange mechanism. To investigate whether this linguistic function is useful we examine how the rhetoric of excellence combines with narratives of scarcity and competition to show that the hypercompetition that arises from the performance of “excellence” is completely at odds with the qualities of good research. We trace the roots of issues in reproducibility, fraud, and homophily to this rhetoric. But we also show that this rhetoric is an internal, and not primarily an external, imposition. We conclude by proposing an alternative rhetoric based on soundness and capacity-building. In the final analysis, it turns out that that “excellence” is not excellent. Used in its current unqualified form it is a pernicious and dangerous rhetoric that undermines the very foundations of good research and scholarship

Unique contributions to the scalar bispectrum in `just enough inflation'

A scalar field rolling down a potential with a large initial velocity results in inflation of a finite duration. Such a scenario suppresses the scalar power on large scales improving the fit to the cosmological data. We find that the scenario leads to a hitherto unexplored situation wherein the boundary terms dominate the contributions to the scalar bispectrum over the bulk terms. We show that the consistency relation governing the non-Gaussianity parameter $f_{_{\rm NL}}$ is violated on large scales and that the contributions at the initial time can substantially enhance the value of $f_{_{\rm NL}}$.Comment: v1: 5 pages, 4 figure

Diagnostic potential of the plasma lipidome in infectious disease: application to acute SARS-CoV-2 infection

Improved methods are required for investigating the systemic metabolic effects of SARS-CoV-2 infection and patient stratification for precision treatment. We aimed to develop an effective method using lipid profiles for discriminating between SARS-CoV-2 infection, healthy controls, and non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infections. Targeted liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry lipid profiling was performed on discovery (20 SARS-CoV-2-positive; 37 healthy controls; 22 COVID-19 symptoms but SARS-CoV-2negative) and validation (312 SARS-CoV-2-positive; 100 healthy controls) cohorts. Orthogonal projection to latent structure-discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA) and Kruskal–Wallis tests were applied to establish discriminant lipids, significance, and effect size, followed by logistic regression to evaluate classification performance. OPLS-DA reported separation of SARS-CoV-2 infection from healthy controls in the discovery cohort, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 1.000. A refined panel of discriminant features consisted of six lipids from different subclasses (PE, PC, LPC, HCER, CER, and DCER). Logistic regression in the discovery cohort returned a training ROC AUC of 1.000 (sensitivity = 1.000, specificity = 1.000) and a test ROC AUC of 1.000. The validation cohort produced a training ROC AUC of 0.977 (sensitivity = 0.855, specificity = 0.948) and a test ROC AUC of 0.978 (sensitivity = 0.948, specificity = 0.922). The lipid panel was also able to differentiate SARS-CoV-2-positive individuals from SARS-CoV-2-negative individuals with COVID-19-like symptoms (specificity = 0.818). Lipid profiling and multivariate modelling revealed a signature offering mechanistic insights into SARS-CoV-2, with strong predictive power, and the potential to facilitate effective diagnosis and clinical management

Diagnostic potential of the plasma lipidome in infectious disease: application to acute SARS-CoV-2 infection

Improved methods are required for investigating the systemic metabolic effects of SARS-CoV-2 infection and patient stratification for precision treatment. We aimed to develop an effective method using lipid profiles for discriminating between SARS-CoV-2 infection, healthy controls, and non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infections. Targeted liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry lipid profiling was performed on discovery (20 SARS-CoV-2-positive; 37 healthy controls; 22 COVID-19 symptoms but SARS-CoV-2negative) and validation (312 SARS-CoV-2-positive; 100 healthy controls) cohorts. Orthogonal projection to latent structure-discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA) and Kruskal–Wallis tests were applied to establish discriminant lipids, significance, and effect size, followed by logistic regression to evaluate classification performance. OPLS-DA reported separation of SARS-CoV-2 infection from healthy controls in the discovery cohort, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 1.000. A refined panel of discriminant features consisted of six lipids from different subclasses (PE, PC, LPC, HCER, CER, and DCER). Logistic regression in the discovery cohort returned a training ROC AUC of 1.000 (sensitivity = 1.000, specificity = 1.000) and a test ROC AUC of 1.000. The validation cohort produced a training ROC AUC of 0.977 (sensitivity = 0.855, specificity = 0.948) and a test ROC AUC of 0.978 (sensitivity = 0.948, specificity = 0.922). The lipid panel was also able to differentiate SARS-CoV-2-positive individuals from SARS-CoV-2-negative individuals with COVID-19-like symptoms (specificity = 0.818). Lipid profiling and multivariate modelling revealed a signature offering mechanistic insights into SARS-CoV-2, with strong predictive power, and the potential to facilitate effective diagnosis and clinical management

Stellar Coronal and Wind Models: Impact on Exoplanets

Surface magnetism is believed to be the main driver of coronal heating and stellar wind acceleration. Coronae are believed to be formed by plasma confined in closed magnetic coronal loops of the stars, with winds mainly originating in open magnetic field line regions. In this Chapter, we review some basic properties of stellar coronae and winds and present some existing models. In the last part of this Chapter, we discuss the effects of coronal winds on exoplanets.Comment: Chapter published in the "Handbook of Exoplanets", Editors in Chief: Juan Antonio Belmonte and Hans Deeg, Section Editor: Nuccio Lanza. Springer Reference Work

Interannual to Interdecadal variability of winter and summer southern African rainfall, and their teleconnections.

25 pagesInternational audienceThis study examines for the first time the changing characteristics of summer and winter southern African rainfall and their teleconnections with large-scale climate through the dominant time scales of variability. As determined by wavelet analysis, the austral summer and winter rainfall indices exhibit three significant time scales of variability over the twentieth century: interdecadal (15–28 years), quasi-decadal (8–13 years), and interannual (2–8 years). Teleconnections with global sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation anomalies are established here but are different for each time scale. Tropical/subtropical teleconnections emerge as the main driver of austral summer rainfall variability. Thus, shifts in the Walker circulation are linked to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and, at decadal time scales, to decadal ENSO-like patterns related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. These global changes in the upper zonal circulation interact with asymmetric ocean-atmospheric conditions between the South Atlantic and South Indian Oceans; together, these lead to a shift in the South Indian Convergence Zone and a modulation of the development of convective rain-bearing systems over southern Africa in summer. Such regional changes, embedded in quasi-annular geopotential patterns, consist of easterly moisture fluxes from the South Indian High, which dominate southerly moisture fluxes from the South Atlantic High. Austral winter rainfall variability is more influenced by midlatitude atmospheric variability, in particular the Southern Annular Mode. The rainfall changes in the southwestern regions of southern Africa are determined by asymmetrical changes in the midlatitude westerlies between the Atlantic and Indian Oceans

Measurement of the branching fraction and CP content for the decay B(0) -> D(*+)D(*-)

This is the pre-print version of the Article. The official published version can be accessed from the links below. Copyright @ 2002 APS.We report a measurement of the branching fraction of the decay B0→D*+D*- and of the CP-odd component of its final state using the BABAR detector. With data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.4  fb-1 collected at the Υ(4S) resonance during 1999–2000, we have reconstructed 38 candidate signal events in the mode B0→D*+D*- with an estimated background of 6.2±0.5 events. From these events, we determine the branching fraction to be B(B0→D*+D*-)=[8.3±1.6(stat)±1.2(syst)]×10-4. The measured CP-odd fraction of the final state is 0.22±0.18(stat)±0.03(syst).This work is supported by DOE and NSF (USA), NSERC (Canada), IHEP (China), CEA and CNRS-IN2P3 (France), BMBF (Germany), INFN (Italy), NFR (Norway), MIST (Russia), and PPARC (United Kingdom). Individuals have received support from the A.P. Sloan Foundation, Research Corporation, and Alexander von Humboldt Foundation

Search for rare quark-annihilation decays, B --> Ds(*) Phi

We report on searches for B- --> Ds- Phi and B- --> Ds*- Phi. In the context of the Standard Model, these decays are expected to be highly suppressed since they proceed through annihilation of the b and u-bar quarks in the B- meson. Our results are based on 234 million Upsilon(4S) --> B Bbar decays collected with the BABAR detector at SLAC. We find no evidence for these decays, and we set Bayesian 90% confidence level upper limits on the branching fractions BF(B- --> Ds- Phi) Ds*- Phi)<1.2x10^(-5). These results are consistent with Standard Model expectations.Comment: 8 pages, 3 postscript figues, submitted to Phys. Rev. D (Rapid Communications