Public perceptions of expert disagreement: Bias and incompetence or a complex and random world?

30 page PDFExpert disputes can present laypeople with several challenges including trying to understand why such disputes occur. In an online survey of the U.S. public, we used a psychometric approach to elicit perceptions of expert disputes for 56 forecasts sampled from seven domains (climate change, crime, economics, environment, health, politics, terrorism). People with low education, or with low self-reported knowledge of the topic, were most likely to attribute expert disputes to expert incompetence. People with higher self-reported knowledge tended to attribute disputes to expert bias due to financial or ideological reasons. The more highly educated and cognitively able were most likely to attribute disputes to natural factors, such as the irreducible complexity and randomness of the phenomenon. We highlight several important implications of these results for scientists and risk managers and argue for further research on how people perceive and grapple with expert disputes.We would like to acknowledge the generous support of the National Science Foundation: This material is based upon work supported by NSF under Grant Nos. #1231231 (Robin Gregory, PI; Nathan Dieckmann co-PI) and #0925008 (Nathan Dieckmann, PI) to Decision Research. All views expressed in this paper are those of the authors alone

Different opinion on the reported role of Poldip2 and ACSM1 in a mammalian lipoic acid salvage pathway controlling HIF-1 activation.

Paredes et al recently described Poldip2 as a novel regulator of mitochondrial lipoylation through stabilisation of ACSM1 (1). We have several concerns with their proposed model based on the following reasons.Wellcome 102770/Z/13/Z and 205252/Z/16/Z Lister Institute RG8795

Physical and mental quality of life in patients with end-stage liver disease and their informal caregivers

Background & Aims Management of end-stage liver disease (ESLD) has implications for not only patients’ quality of life (QOL), but also their caregivers’. We aimed to identify characteristics of patients with ESLD and their caregivers that are associated with QOL. Methods We obtained cross-sectional baseline data from patients and their caregivers (132 dyads; 62% were married or partners), recruited from outpatient hepatology clinics within 2 healthcare centers. Patients were included if their model for end-stage liver disease score was 15 or more; caregivers were identified by the patient as the primary informal caregiver. QOL was measured by the SF-36 and relationship quality using the mutuality scale. We measured uncertainty using the uncertainty in illness scales for patients and caregivers. Multilevel modeling was used to analyze the data. Results Refractory ascites was associated with worse physical QOL for patients (unstandardized beta [B], –9.19; standard error [SE], 2.28) and caregivers (B, –5.41; SE, 2.33); history of hepatic encephalopathy was associated with worse patient physical QOL (B, –3.86; SE, 1.65). High levels of uncertainty were associated with worse physical and mental QOL for both members of the dyads; relationship quality was significantly associated with patient mental QOL (B, 2.73; SE, 1.19). Conclusions Clinicians and researchers should consider the effects of ESLD on caregivers as well as their patients to optimize the QOL for both

Chikungunya risk assessment for europe: recommendations for action

Since March 2005, 255 000 cases of chikungunya fever are estimated to have occurred on the island of Réunion, a French overseas department in the Indian Ocean [1]. An huge increase in estimated cases occurred at the end of December 2005, culminating in an estimated peak incidence of more than 40 000 cases in week 5 of 2006 [2]. Since then, the estimated weekly incidence trend is downwards, although there have been an estimated 3000 new cases per week since week 13 of 2006. In total, 213 deaths have been linked to the disease [1]. In Mayotte, the nearby French territorial collectivity, 5834 cases have been notified [3]. Chikungunya cases have also been reported on other islands in the Indian Ocean, and imported cases have been confirmed in several European countrie

Sail or sink: novel behavioural adaptations on water in aerially dispersing species

Background Long-distance dispersal events have the potential to shape species distributions and ecosystem diversity over large spatial scales, and to influence processes such as population persistence and the pace and scale of invasion. How such dispersal strategies have evolved and are maintained within species is, however, often unclear. We have studied long-distance dispersal in a range of pest-controlling terrestrial spiders that are important predators within agricultural ecosystems. These species persist in heterogeneous environments through their ability to re-colonise vacant habitat by repeated long-distance aerial dispersal (“ballooning”) using spun silk lines. Individuals are strictly terrestrial, are not thought to tolerate landing on water, and have no control over where they land once airborne. Their tendency to spread via aerial dispersal has thus been thought to be limited by the costs of encountering water, which is a frequent hazard in the landscape. Results In our study we find that ballooning in a subset of individuals from two groups of widely-distributed and phylogenetically distinct terrestrial spiders (linyphiids and one tetragnathid) is associated with a hitherto undescribed ability of those same individuals to survive encounters with both fresh and marine water. Individuals that showed a high tendency to adopt ‘ballooning’ behaviour adopted elaborate postures to seemingly take advantage of the wind current whilst on the water surface. Conclusions The ability of individuals capable of long-distance aerial dispersal to survive encounters with water allows them to disperse repeatedly, thereby increasing the pace and spatial scale over which they can spread and subsequently exert an influence on the ecosystems into which they migrate. The potential for genetic connectivity between populations, which can influence the rate of localized adaptation, thus exists over much larger geographic scales than previously thought. Newly available habitat may be particularly influenced given the degree of ecosystem disturbance that is known to follow new predator introductions

Spatio-temporal development of forests - Current trends in field methods and models

We present a critical review of current trends in research of spatio-temporal development of forests. The paper addresses (1) field methods for the development of spatially-explicit models of forest dynamics and their integration in models of forest dynamics, (2) strengths and limitations of traditional patch models versus spatially-explicit, individual-based models, and (3) the potential for moment-based methods in the analysis of forest dynamics. These topics are discussed with reference to their potential for solving open questions in the studies of forest dynamics. The study of spatio-temporal processes provides a link between pattern and process in plant communities, and plays a crucial role in understanding ecosystem dynamics. In the last decade, the development of spatially-explicit, individual-based models shifted the focus of forest dynamics modelling from the dynamics of discrete patches to the interactions among individual organisms, thus encapsulating the theory of "neighbourhood" dynamics. In turn, the stochastic properties and the complexity of spatially-explicit, individual-based models gave rise to the development of a new suite of so-called moment-based models. These new models describe the dynamics of individuals and of pairs of individuals in terms of their densities, thus directly capturing second-order information on spatial structure. So far, this approach has not been applied to forests; we indicate extensions needed for such applications. Moment-based models may be an important complement to spatially explicit individual-based models in developing a general spatial theory of forest dynamics. However, both kinds of models currently focus on fine scales, whereas a critical issue in forest dynamics is to understand the interaction of fine-scale processes with coarser-scale disturbances. To obtain a more complete picture of forest dynamics, the relevant links and interactions between fine-, intermediate-, and coarse-scale processes ought to be identified. Intensive links between modelling work and field studies designed across different scales are a promising means to create a new perspective on forest dynamics

Numeracy: A Review of the Literature

51 pagesNumeracy is defined as the ability to understand and use numbers. In addition to basic reading and writing skills, today’s consumers need an understanding of numbers and basic mathematical skills to use any numerical information presented in text, tables or charts. This is especially true in many financial and healthcare settings, where a basic understanding of numerical concepts is arguably as important for informed decision making as reading ability. Although systematic research on numeracy has been growing steadily over the last several years, there have been few comprehensive reviews of this literature. In addition to summarizing key findings, a review could serve to identify gaps in our knowledge and suggest paths for future research in the field. The primary goal of this paper is to review current directions in numeracy research, and, in particular, to examine the relationship between numeracy and decision making in health and selected non-health domains