Predicting Non-performing Loans by Financial Ratios for Small and Medium Entities in Lebanon

This study examines the ability of financial ratios in predicting the financial state of small and medium entities (SME) in Lebanon. This financial state can be either one of well-performing loans or one of non-performing loans. An empirical study is conducted using a data analysis of the financial statements of 222 SMEs in Lebanon for the years 2011 and 2012, of which 187 have currently well-performing loans and 35 have currently non-performing loans. Altman Z-scores are calculated, independent samples t-tests are performed, and models are developed using the binary logistic regression. Empirical evidence shows that the Altman Z-scores are able to predict well the solvent state of SMEs having well-performing loans, but are unable to predict accurately the bankruptcy state of the SMEs having non-performing loans. The independent samples t-tests revealed that five financial ratios are statistically significantly different between SMEs having well-performing loans and those having non-performing loans. Finally, a logistic regression model is developed for each year under study with limited success. In all cases accuracy results are inferred showing the percentage of companies that are accurately classified for being solvent and bankrupt, in addition to the two standard measures of error: the Type I errors and the Type II errors. Although a high accuracy is achieved in correctly classifying non-distressed and distressed firms, the Type I errors are in general relatively large. By contrast the Type II errors are in general relatively low

Crystal-Induced Podocytopathy Producing Collapsing Focal Segmental Glomerulosclerosis in Monoclonal Gammopathy of Renal Significance: A Case Report

Glomeruloesclerosis focal y segmentaria; Queratopatía cristalina; PodocitopatíaGlomeruloesclerosi focal i segmentària; Queratopatia cristal·lina; PodocitopatiaFocal and segmental glomerulosclerosis; Crystalline keratopathy; PodocytopathyMonoclonal gammopathy–associated crystalline podocytopathy causing collapsing focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) is very rare and has been associated with pamidronate therapy. We present the case of a 53-year-old man with vision loss secondary to corneal crystals deposition, nephrotic-range proteinuria, and reduced glomerular filtration rate without associated comorbid conditions. Two kidney biopsies were initially reported as primary FSGS but the patient did not respond to high-dose corticosteroid immunosuppression therapy. Re-review of biopsies with additional electron microscopy analysis revealed crystalline inclusions in podocytes leading to collapsing FSGS. Subsequent workup revealed an immunoglobulin G κ serum monoclonal protein. Bone marrow biopsy revealed 5% κ-restricted plasma cells with cytoplasmic crystalline inclusions. To our knowledge, this is the first case of monoclonal gammopathy of clinical significance manifesting as crystalline podocytopathy leading to collapsing FSGS and keratopathy leading to vision loss. Crystalline podocytopathy should be considered in the differential diagnosis of collapsing glomerulopathy, and careful ultrastructural examination of the kidney biopsy specimen is crucial to establish this diagnosis.The authors declare that they have no relevant financial interests

Laser microdissection and mass spectrometry–based proteomics aids the diagnosis and typing of renal amyloidosis

Accurate diagnosis and typing of renal amyloidosis is critical for prognosis, genetic counseling, and treatment. Laser microdissection and mass spectrometry are emerging techniques for the analysis and diagnosis of many renal diseases. Here we present the results of laser microdissection and mass spectrometry performed on 127 cases of renal amyloidosis during 2008–2010. We found the following proteins in the amyloid deposits: immunoglobulin light and heavy chains, secondary reactive serum amyloid A protein, leukocyte cell–derived chemotaxin-2, fibrinogen-α chain, transthyretin, apolipoprotein A-I and A-IV, gelsolin, and β-2 microglobulin. Thus, laser microdissection of affected areas within the kidney followed by mass spectrometry provides a direct test of the composition of the deposit and forms a useful ancillary technique for the accurate diagnosis and typing of renal amyloidosis in a single procedure

Low- and high-molecular-weight urinary proteins as predictors of response to rituximab in patients with membranous nephropathy: a prospective study

Background. Selective urinary biomarkers have been considered superior to total proteinuria in predicting response to treatment and outcome in patients with membranous nephropathy (MN). Methods. We prospectively tested whether urinary (U) excretion of retinol-binding protein (RBP), α1-microglobulin (α1M), albumin, immunoglobulinIgG and IgM and/or anti-phospholipase 2 receptor (PLA2R) levels could predict response to rituximab (RTX) therapy better than standard measures in MN. We also correlated changes in antibodies to PLA2R with these urinary biomarkers. Results. Twenty patients with MN and proteinuria (P) >5 g/24 h received RTX (375 mg/m2 × 4) and at 12 months, 1 patient was in complete remission (CR), 9 were in partial remission (PR), 5 had a limited response (LR) and 4 were non-responders (NR). At 24 months, CR occurred in 4, PR in 12, LR in 1, NR in 2 and 1 patient relapsed. By simple linear regression analysis, UIgG at baseline (mg/24 h) was a significant predictor of change in proteinuria at 12 months (Δ urinary protein) (P = 0.04). In addition, fractional excretion (FE) of IgG, urinary alpha 1 microglobulin (Uα1M) (mg/24 h) and URBP (μg/24 h) were also predictors of response (P = 0.05, 0.04, and 0.03, respectively). On the other hand, UIgM, FEIgM, albumin and FE albumin did not predict response (P = 0.10, 0.27, 0.22 and 0.20, respectively). However, when results were analyzed in relation to proteinuria at 24 months, none of the U markers that predicted response at 12 m could predict response at 24 m (P = 0.55, 0.42, 0.29 and 0.20). Decline in anti-PLA2R levels was associated with and often preceded urinary biomarker response but positivity at baseline was not a predictor of proteinuria response. Conclusions. The results suggest that in patients with MN, quantification of low-, medium- and high-molecular-weight urinary proteins may be associated with rate of response to RTX, but do not correlate with longer term outcomes

Laparoscopy in management of appendicitis in high-, middle-, and low-income countries: a multicenter, prospective, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Appendicitis is the most common abdominal surgical emergency worldwide. Differences between high- and low-income settings in the availability of laparoscopic appendectomy, alternative management choices, and outcomes are poorly described. The aim was to identify variation in surgical management and outcomes of appendicitis within low-, middle-, and high-Human Development Index (HDI) countries worldwide. METHODS: This is a multicenter, international prospective cohort study. Consecutive sampling of patients undergoing emergency appendectomy over 6 months was conducted. Follow-up lasted 30 days. RESULTS: 4546 patients from 52 countries underwent appendectomy (2499 high-, 1540 middle-, and 507 low-HDI groups). Surgical site infection (SSI) rates were higher in low-HDI (OR 2.57, 95% CI 1.33-4.99, p = 0.005) but not middle-HDI countries (OR 1.38, 95% CI 0.76-2.52, p = 0.291), compared with high-HDI countries after adjustment. A laparoscopic approach was common in high-HDI countries (1693/2499, 67.7%), but infrequent in low-HDI (41/507, 8.1%) and middle-HDI (132/1540, 8.6%) groups. After accounting for case-mix, laparoscopy was still associated with fewer overall complications (OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.42-0.71, p < 0.001) and SSIs (OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.14-0.33, p < 0.001). In propensity-score matched groups within low-/middle-HDI countries, laparoscopy was still associated with fewer overall complications (OR 0.23 95% CI 0.11-0.44) and SSI (OR 0.21 95% CI 0.09-0.45). CONCLUSION: A laparoscopic approach is associated with better outcomes and availability appears to differ by country HDI. Despite the profound clinical, operational, and financial barriers to its widespread introduction, laparoscopy could significantly improve outcomes for patients in low-resource environments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02179112

Global economic burden of unmet surgical need for appendicitis

Background: There is a substantial gap in provision of adequate surgical care in many low-and middle-income countries. This study aimed to identify the economic burden of unmet surgical need for the common condition of appendicitis. Methods: Data on the incidence of appendicitis from 170 countries and two different approaches were used to estimate numbers of patients who do not receive surgery: as a fixed proportion of the total unmet surgical need per country (approach 1); and based on country income status (approach 2). Indirect costs with current levels of access and local quality, and those if quality were at the standards of high-income countries, were estimated. A human capital approach was applied, focusing on the economic burden resulting from premature death and absenteeism. Results: Excess mortality was 4185 per 100 000 cases of appendicitis using approach 1 and 3448 per 100 000 using approach 2. The economic burden of continuing current levels of access and local quality was US $92 492 million using approach 1 and$73 141 million using approach 2. The economic burden of not providing surgical care to the standards of high-income countries was $95 004 million using approach 1 and$75 666 million using approach 2. The largest share of these costs resulted from premature death (97.7 per cent) and lack of access (97.0 per cent) in contrast to lack of quality. Conclusion: For a comparatively non-complex emergency condition such as appendicitis, increasing access to care should be prioritized. Although improving quality of care should not be neglected, increasing provision of care at current standards could reduce societal costs substantially

Pooled analysis of WHO Surgical Safety Checklist use and mortality after emergency laparotomy

Background The World Health Organization (WHO) Surgical Safety Checklist has fostered safe practice for 10 years, yet its place in emergency surgery has not been assessed on a global scale. The aim of this study was to evaluate reported checklist use in emergency settings and examine the relationship with perioperative mortality in patients who had emergency laparotomy. Methods In two multinational cohort studies, adults undergoing emergency laparotomy were compared with those having elective gastrointestinal surgery. Relationships between reported checklist use and mortality were determined using multivariable logistic regression and bootstrapped simulation. Results Of 12 296 patients included from 76 countries, 4843 underwent emergency laparotomy. After adjusting for patient and disease factors, checklist use before emergency laparotomy was more common in countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI) (2455 of 2741, 89.6 per cent) compared with that in countries with a middle (753 of 1242, 60.6 per cent; odds ratio (OR) 0.17, 95 per cent c.i. 0.14 to 0.21, P <0001) or low (363 of 860, 422 per cent; OR 008, 007 to 010, P <0.001) HDI. Checklist use was less common in elective surgery than for emergency laparotomy in high-HDI countries (risk difference -94 (95 per cent c.i. -11.9 to -6.9) per cent; P <0001), but the relationship was reversed in low-HDI countries (+121 (+7.0 to +173) per cent; P <0001). In multivariable models, checklist use was associated with a lower 30-day perioperative mortality (OR 0.60, 0.50 to 073; P <0.001). The greatest absolute benefit was seen for emergency surgery in low- and middle-HDI countries. Conclusion Checklist use in emergency laparotomy was associated with a significantly lower perioperative mortality rate. Checklist use in low-HDI countries was half that in high-HDI countries.Peer reviewe

Mortality of emergency abdominal surgery in high-, middle- and low-income countries

Background: Surgical mortality data are collected routinely in high-income countries, yet virtually no low- or middle-income countries have outcome surveillance in place. The aim was prospectively to collect worldwide mortality data following emergency abdominal surgery, comparing findings across countries with a low, middle or high Human Development Index (HDI). Methods: This was a prospective, multicentre, cohort study. Self-selected hospitals performing emergency surgery submitted prespecified data for consecutive patients from at least one 2-week interval during July to December 2014. Postoperative mortality was analysed by hierarchical multivariable logistic regression. Results: Data were obtained for 10 745 patients from 357 centres in 58 countries; 6538 were from high-, 2889 from middle- and 1318 from low-HDI settings. The overall mortality rate was 1⋅6 per cent at 24 h (high 1⋅1 per cent, middle 1⋅9 per cent, low 3⋅4 per cent; P < 0⋅001), increasing to 5⋅4 per cent by 30 days (high 4⋅5 per cent, middle 6⋅0 per cent, low 8⋅6 per cent; P < 0⋅001). Of the 578 patients who died, 404 (69⋅9 per cent) did so between 24 h and 30 days following surgery (high 74⋅2 per cent, middle 68⋅8 per cent, low 60⋅5 per cent). After adjustment, 30-day mortality remained higher in middle-income (odds ratio (OR) 2⋅78, 95 per cent c.i. 1⋅84 to 4⋅20) and low-income (OR 2⋅97, 1⋅84 to 4⋅81) countries. Surgical safety checklist use was less frequent in low- and middle-income countries, but when used was associated with reduced mortality at 30 days. Conclusion: Mortality is three times higher in low- compared with high-HDI countries even when adjusted for prognostic factors. Patient safety factors may have an important role. Registration number: NCT02179112 (http://www.clinicaltrials.gov)