Political risk in light rail transit PPP projects

Since 2003 public-private partnerships (PPPs) have represented between 10 and 13.5% of the total investment in public services in the UK. The macro-economic and political benefits of PPPs were among the key drivers for central government's decision to promote this form of procurement to improve UK public services. Political support for a PPP project is critical and is frequently cited as the most important critical success factor. This paper investigates the significance of political support and reviews the treatment of political risk in a business case by the public sector project sponsor for major UK-based light rail transit PPP projects during their development stage. The investigation demonstrates that in the early project stages it is not traditional quantitative Monte Carlo risk analysis that is important; rather it is the identification and representation of political support within a business case together with an understanding of how this information is then used to inform critical project decisions

Design management: changing roles of the professions

This paper sets out to explore how recent changes in procurement in construction have affected the roles that professions play in the design process. It discusses how professions that traditionally took the role of design manager now find themselves participating within previously unforeseen contexts, working in multidisciplinary teams led by contractors and with changed responsibilities at the design stage. Supply chain members who were not previously involved during the early project phases are being engaged at the earliest phases of the project life cycle and even taking leadership roles while designers sometimes work as supply chain partners. A study of design in construction and other sectors shows that in dealing with design management issues it is critical to deepen appreciation for the unique characteristics of design and the design process. The paper argues that contractors and designers taking on design management roles in a dynamic industry seeking to explore best practice and innovative approaches to procurement and in the delivery of projects need to acquire new skills, management education and develop the necessary qualities

Postcoital Bioavailability and Antiviral Activity of 0.5% PRO 2000 Gel: Implications for Future Microbicide Clinical Trials

The pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of vaginal microbicides are typically assessed among sexually abstinent women. However, the physical act of sex may modulate gel distribution, and preclinical studies demonstrate seminal plasma interferes with the antiviral activity of several microbicides. This study compared the biological activity and concentration of PRO 2000 in cervicovaginal lavage (CVL) collected in the absence or following coitus.CVL samples were collected from ten heterosexual couples at baseline, after sex, after a single dose of 0.5% PRO 2000 gel and sex, and after gel application without sex. The impact of CVL on HIV-1 infection of TZM-bl cells and HSV-2 infection of CaSki cells was monitored by luciferase and plaque assay, respectively. PRO 2000 concentrations were measured by fluorescence.CVL collected after PRO 2000 application significantly inhibited HIV-1 and HSV-2 (p = 0.01). However, the antiviral activity was reduced following sex and no significant protective effect was observed in postcoital CVL obtained in the presence compared to the absence of PRO 2000 for HIV (p = 0.45) or HSV-2 (p = 0.56). Less PRO 2000 was recovered in postcoital CVL, which, in conjunction with interference by seminal plasma, may have contributed to lower antiviral activity.Postcoital responses to PRO 2000 differ from precoital measures and the results obtained may provide insights into the clinical trial findings in which there was no significant protection against HIV-1 or HSV-2. Postcoital studies should be incorporated into clinical studies before embarking on large-scale efficacy trials

Performance of swabs, lavage, and diluents to quantify biomarkers of female genital tract soluble mucosal mediators

Background: Measurement of immune mediators and antimicrobial activity in female genital tract secretions may provide biomarkers predictive of risk for HIV-1 acquisition and surrogate markers of microbicide safety. However, optimal methods for sample collection do not exist. This study compared collection methods. Methods: Secretions were collected from 48 women (24 with bacterial vaginosis [BV]) using vaginal and endocervical Dacron and flocked swabs. Cervicovaginal lavage (CVL) was collected with 10 mL of Normosol-R (n = 20), saline (n = 14), or water (n = 14). The concentration of gluconate in Normosol-R CVL was determined to estimate the dilution factor. Cytokine and antimicrobial mediators were measured by Luminex or ELISA and corrected for protein content. Endogenous anti-HIV-1 and anti-E. coli activity were measured by TZM-bl assay or E. coli growth. Results: Higher concentrations of protein were recovered by CVL, despite a 10-fold dilution of secretions, as compared to swab eluents. After protein correction, endocervical swabs recovered the highest mediator levels regardless of BV status. Endocervical and vaginal flocked swabs recovered significantly higher levels of anti-HIV-1 and anti-E. coli activity than Dacron swabs (P<0.001). BV had a significant effect on CVL mediator recovery. Normosol-R tended to recover higher levels of most mediators among women with BV, whereas saline or water tended to recover higher levels among women without BV. Saline recovered the highest levels of anti-HIV-1 activity regardless of BV status. Conclusions: Endocervical swabs and CVL collected with saline provide the best recovery of most mediators and would be the optimal sampling method(s) for clinical trials. © 2011 Dezzutti et al

A Randomized Trial to Assess Anti-HIV Activity in Female Genital Tract Secretions and Soluble Mucosal Immunity Following Application of 1% Tenofovir Gel

Preclinical and early phase clinical microbicide studies have not consistently predicted the outcome of efficacy trials. To address this gap, candidate biomarkers of microbicide pharmacodynamics and safety were evaluated in a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of tenofovir gel, the first microbicide to demonstrate significant protection against HIV acquisition.30 women were randomized to apply a single daily dose of tenofovir or placebo gel for 14 consecutive days. Anti-HIV activity was measured in cervicovaginal lavage (CVL) on Days 0, 3, 7, 14 and 21 by luciferase assay as a surrogate marker of pharmacodynamics. Endogenous activity against E. coli and HSV-2 and concentrations of immune mediators were quantified in CVL as candidate biomarkers of safety. Tenofovir levels were measured in CVL and blood.A significant increase in anti-HIV activity was detected in CVL from women who applied tenofovir gel compared to their endogenous anti-HIV activity in genital tract secretions on Day 0 and compared to activity in CVL from women in the placebo group. The activity correlated significantly with CVL concentration of tenofovir (r = 0.6, p<0.001) and fit a sigmoid E(max) pharmacodynamic model. Anti-HIV activity in CVL from women who applied tenofovir persisted when virus was introduced in semen, whereas endogenous anti-HIV activity decreased. Tenofovir did not trigger an inflammatory response or induce sustained loss in endogenous antimicrobial activity or immune mediators.Tenofovir gel had no deleterious impact on soluble mucosal immunity. The increased anti-HIV activity in CVL, which persisted in the presence of semen and correlated with tenofovir concentration, is consistent with the efficacy observed in a recent clinical trial. These results promote quantified CVL anti-HIV activity as a surrogate of tissue pharmacodynamics and as a potential biomarker of adherence to product. This simple, feasible and inexpensive bioassay may promote the development of models more predictive of microbicide efficacy.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00594373

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

The ACER pollen and charcoal database: A global resource to document vegetation and fire response to abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period

This is the final version of the article. Available from Copernicus Publications via the DOI in this record.Quaternary records provide an opportunity to examine the nature of the vegetation and fire responses to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st-century. The best documented examples of rapid climate change in the past are the warming events associated with the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles during the last glacial period, which were sufficiently large to have had a potential feedback through changes in albedo and greenhouse gas emissions on climate. Previous reconstructions of vegetation and fire changes during the D-O cycles used independently constructed age models, making it difficult to compare the changes between different sites and regions. Here, we present the ACER (Abrupt Climate Changes and Environmental Responses) global database, which includes 93 pollen records from the last glacial period (73-15ka) with a temporal resolution better than 1000years, 32 of which also provide charcoal records. A harmonized and consistent chronology based on radiometric dating (14C, 234U/230Th, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), 40Ar/39Ar-dated tephra layers) has been constructed for 86 of these records, although in some cases additional information was derived using common control points based on event stratigraphy. The ACER database compiles metadata including geospatial and dating information, pollen and charcoal counts, and pollen percentages of the characteristic biomes and is archived in Microsoft Access™ at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.870867.The members of the ACER project wish to thank the QUEST-DESIRE (UK and France) bilateral project, the INQUA International Focus Group ACER and the INTIMATE-COST action for funding a suite of workshops to compile the ACER pollen and charcoal database and the workshop on ACER chronology that allow setting the basis for harmonizing the chronologies. Josué M. Polanco-Martinez was funded by a Basque Government postdoctoral fellowship (POS_2015_1_0006) and Sandy P. Harrison by the ERC Advanced Grant GC2.0: unlocking the past for a clearer future

Socioeconomic deprivation and illness trajectory in the Scottish population after COVID-19 hospitalization

Background The associations between deprivation and illness trajectory after hospitalisation for coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) are uncertain. Methods A prospective, multicentre cohort study was conducted on post-COVID-19 patients, enrolled either in-hospital or shortly post-discharge. Two evaluations were carried out: an initial assessment and a follow-up at 28–60 days post-discharge. The study encompassed research blood tests, patient-reported outcome measures, and multisystem imaging (including chest computed tomography (CT) with pulmonary and coronary angiography, cardiovascular and renal magnetic resonance imaging). Primary and secondary outcomes were analysed in relation to socioeconomic status, using the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD). The EQ-5D-5L, Brief Illness Perception Questionnaire (BIPQ), Patient Health Questionnaire-4 (PHQ-4) for Anxiety and Depression, and the Duke Activity Status Index (DASI) were used to assess health status. Results Of the 252 enrolled patients (mean age 55.0 ± 12.0 years; 40% female; 23% with diabetes), deprivation status was linked with increased BMI and diabetes prevalence. 186 (74%) returned for the follow-up. Within this group, findings indicated associations between deprivation and lung abnormalities (p = 0.0085), coronary artery disease (p = 0.0128), and renal inflammation (p = 0.0421). Furthermore, patients with higher deprivation exhibited worse scores in health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-5L, p = 0.0084), illness perception (BIPQ, p = 0.0004), anxiety and depression levels (PHQ-4, p = 0.0038), and diminished physical activity (DASI, p = 0.002). At the 3-month mark, those with greater deprivation showed a higher frequency of referrals to secondary care due to ongoing COVID-19 symptoms (p = 0.0438). However, clinical outcomes were not influenced by deprivation. Conclusions In a post-hospital COVID-19 population, socioeconomic deprivation was associated with impaired health status and secondary care episodes. Deprivation influences illness trajectory after COVID-19