Wetland succession in a permafrost collapse: interactions between fire and thermokarst

To determine the influence of fire and thermokarst in a boreal landscape, we investigated peat cores within and adjacent to a permafrost collapse feature on the Tanana River Floodplain of Interior Alaska. Radioisotope dating, diatom assemblages, plant macrofossils, charcoal fragments, and carbon and nitrogen content of the peat profile indicate ~600 years of vegetation succession with a transition from a terrestrial forest to a sedge-dominated wetland over 100 years ago, and to a <i>Sphagnum</i>-dominated peatland in approximately 1970. The shift from sedge to <i>Sphagnum</i>, and a decrease in the detrended tree-ring width index of black spruce trees adjacent to the collapse coincided with an increase in the growing season temperature record from Fairbanks. This concurrent wetland succession and reduced growth of black spruce trees indicates a step-wise ecosystem-level response to a change in regional climate. In 2001, fire was observed coincident with permafrost collapse and resulted in lateral expansion of the peatland. These observations and the peat profile suggest that future warming and/or increased fire disturbance could promote permafrost degradation, peatland expansion, and increase carbon storage across this landscape; however, the development of drought conditions could reduce the success of both black spruce and <i>Sphagnum</i>, and potentially decrease the long-term ecosystem carbon storage

Correlation function of quasars in real and redshift space from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7

We analyze the quasar two-point correlation function (2pCF) within the redshift interval $0.8<z<2.2$ using a sample of 52303 quasars selected from the recent 7th Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. Our approach to 2pCF uses a concept of locally Lorentz (Fermi) frame for determination of the distance between objects and permutation method of the random catalogue generation. Assuming the spatially flat cosmological model with given $\Omega_{\Lambda}=0.726$, we found that the real-space 2pCF is fitted well with the power-low model within the distance range $1<\sigma<35$ $h^{-1}$ Mpc with the correlation length $r_{0}=5.85\pm0.33$ $h^{-1}$ Mpc and the slope $\gamma=1.87\pm0.07$. The redshift-space 2pCF is approximated with $s_{0}=6.43\pm0.63$ $h^{-1}$ Mpc and $\gamma=1.21\pm0.24$ for $1<s<10$ $h^{-1}$ Mpc, and $s_{0}=7.37\pm0.81$ $h^{-1}$ Mpc and $\gamma=1.90\pm0.24$ for $1010\,h^{-1}$ Mpc the parameter describing the large-scale infall to density inhomogeneities is $\beta=0.63\pm0.10$ with the linear bias $b=1.44\pm0.22$ that marginally (within 2$\sigma$) agrees with the linear theory of cosmological perturbations. We discuss possibilities to obtain a statistical estimate of the random component of quasars velocities (different from the large-scale infall). We note rather slight dependence of quasars velocity dispersion upon the 2pCF parameters in the region $r<2$ Mpc.Comment: 15 pages, 17 figures, online published in MNRAS; final version to match the published versio

Determinants of adults' intention to vaccinate against pandemic swine flu

This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Background: Vaccination is one of the cornerstones of controlling an influenza pandemic. To optimise vaccination rates in the general population, ways of identifying determinants that influence decisions to have or not to have a vaccination need to be understood. Therefore, this study aimed to predict intention to have a swine influenza vaccination in an adult population in the UK. An extension of the Theory of Planned Behaviour provided the theoretical framework for the study. Methods: Three hundred and sixty two adults from the UK, who were not in vaccination priority groups, completed either an online (n = 306) or pen and paper (n = 56) questionnaire. Data were collected from 30th October 2009, just after swine flu vaccination became available in the UK, and concluded on 31st December 2009. The main outcome of interest was future swine flu vaccination intentions. Results: The extended Theory of Planned Behaviour predicted 60% of adults’ intention to have a swine flu vaccination with attitude, subjective norm, perceived control, anticipating feelings of regret (the impact of missing a vaccination opportunity), intention to have a seasonal vaccine this year, one perceived barrier: “I cannot be bothered to get a swine flu vaccination” and two perceived benefits: “vaccination decreases my chance of getting swine flu or its complications” and “if I get vaccinated for swine flu, I will decrease the frequency of having to consult my doctor,” being significant predictors of intention. Black British were less likely to intend to have a vaccination compared to Asian or White respondents. Conclusions: Theoretical frameworks which identify determinants that influence decisions to have a pandemic influenza vaccination are useful. The implications of this research are discussed with a view to maximising any future pandemic influenza vaccination uptake using theoretically-driven applications.This article is available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund

The properties of SCUBA cores in the Perseus molecular cloud: the bias of clump-finding algorithms

We present a new analysis of the properties of star-forming cores in the Perseus molecular cloud, identified in SCUBA 850 micron data. Our goal is to determine which core properties can be robustly identified and which depend on the extraction technique. Four regions in the cloud are examined: NGC1333, IC348/HH211, L1448 and L1455. We identify clumps of dust emission using two popular automated algorithms, CLFIND and GAUSSCLUMPS, finding 85 and 122 clumps in total respectively. Some trends are true for both populations: clumps become increasingly elongated over time and are consistent with constant surface brightness objects, with an average brightness ~4 to 10 times larger than the surrounding molecular cloud; the clump mass distribution (CMD) resembles the stellar intial mass function, with a slope alpha = -2.0+/-0.1 for CLFIND and alpha = -3.15+/-0.08 for GAUSSCLUMPS, which straddle the Salpeter value. The mass at which the slope shallows (similar for both algorithms at M~6 Msun) implies a star-forming efficiency of between 10 and 20 per cent. Other trends reported elsewhere depend on the clump-finding technique: we find protostellar clumps are both smaller (for GAUSSCLUMPS) and larger (for CLFIND) than their starless counterparts; the functional form, best-fitting to the CMD, is different for the two algorithms. The GAUSSCLUMPS CMD is best-fitted with a log-normal distribution, whereas a broken power law is best for CLFIND; the reported lack of massive starless cores in previous studies can be seen in the CLFIND but not the GAUSSCLUMPS data. Our approach highlights similarities and differences between the clump populations, illustrating the caution that must be exercised when comparing results from different studies and interpreting the properties of continuum cores.Comment: 19 pages, 17 figures, accepted for publication by MNRA

Maladaptive avoidance patterns in Parkinson's disease are exacerbated by symptoms of depression

Available online 11 January 2020Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a chronic, progressive neurodegenerative disorder, characterized by a loss of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra pars compacta. Given that dopamine is critically involved in learning and other cognitive processes, such as working memory, dopamine loss in PD has been linked both to learning abnormalities and to cognitive dysfunction more generally in the disease. It is unclear, however, whether avoidance behavior is impacted in PD. This is significant, as this type of instrumental behavior plays an important role in both decision-making and emotional (dys) function. Consequently, the aim of the present study was to examine avoidance learning and operant extinction in PD using a computer-based task. On this task, participants control a spaceship and attempt to shoot an enemy spaceship to gain points. They also learn to hide in safe areas to protect from (i.e., avoid) aversive events (on-screen explosions and point loss). The results showed that patients with PD (N = 25) acquired an avoidance response during aversive periods to the same extent as healthy age-matched controls (N = 19); however, patients demonstrated greater hiding during safe periods not associated with aversive events, which could represent maladaptive generalization of the avoidance response. Furthermore, this impairment was more pronounced during the extinction phase, and in patients who reported higher levels of depression. These results demonstrate for the first time that PD is associated with maladaptive avoidance patterns, which could possibly contribute to the emergence of depression in the disease.Jony Sheynin, Irina Baetu, Lyndsey E. Collins-Praino, Catherine E. Myers, Robyn Winwood-Smith, Ahmed A. Moustaf

Shrub growth and expansion in the Arctic tundra: an assessment of controlling factors using an evidence-based approach

Woody shrubs have increased in biomass and expanded into new areas throughout the Pan-Arctic tundra biome in recent decades, which has been linked to a biome-wide observed increase in productivity. Experimental, observational, and socio-ecological research suggests that air temperature—and to a lesser degree precipitation—trends have been the predominant drivers of this change. However, a progressive decoupling of these drivers from Arctic vegetation productivity has been reported, and since 2010, vegetation productivity has also been declining. We created a protocol to (a) identify the suite of controls that may be operating on shrub growth and expansion, and (b) characterise the evidence base for controls on Arctic shrub growth and expansion. We found evidence for a suite of 23 proximal controls that operate directly on shrub growth and expansion; the evidence base focused predominantly on just four controls (air temperature, soil moisture, herbivory, and snow dynamics). 65% of evidence was generated in the warmest tundra climes, while 24% was from only one of 28 floristic sectors. Temporal limitations beyond 10 years existed for most controls, while the use of space-for-time approaches was high, with 14% of the evidence derived via experimental approaches. The findings suggest the current evidence base is not sufficiently robust or comprehensive at present to answer key questions of Pan-Arctic shrub change. We suggest future directions that could strengthen the evidence, and lead to an understanding of the key mechanisms driving changes in Arctic shrub environments

Global mapping of infectious disease

The primary aim of this review was to evaluate the state of knowledge of the geographical distribution of all infectious diseases of clinical significance to humans. A systematic review was conducted to enumerate cartographic progress, with respect to the data available for mapping and the methods currently applied. The results helped define the minimum information requirements for mapping infectious disease occurrence, and a quantitative framework for assessing the mapping opportunities for all infectious diseases. This revealed that of 355 infectious diseases identified, 174 (49%) have a strong rationale for mapping and of these only 7 (4%) had been comprehensively mapped. A variety of ambitions, such as the quantification of the global burden of infectious disease, international biosurveillance, assessing the likelihood of infectious disease outbreaks and exploring the propensity for infectious disease evolution and emergence, are limited by these omissions. An overview of the factors hindering progress in disease cartography is provided. It is argued that rapid improvement in the landscape of infectious diseases mapping can be made by embracing non-conventional data sources, automation of geo-positioning and mapping procedures enabled by machine learning and information technology, respectively, in addition to harnessing labour of the volunteer ‘cognitive surplus’ through crowdsourcing

Constraints on the ICM velocity power spectrum from the X-ray lines width and shift

Future X-ray observations of galaxy clusters by high spectral resolution missions will provide spatially resolved measurements of the energy and width for the brightest emission lines in the intracluster medium (ICM) spectrum. In this paper we discuss various ways of using these high resolution data to constrain velocity power spectrum in galaxy clusters. We argue that variations of these quantities with the projected distance R in cool core clusters contain important information on the velocity field length scales in the ICM. The effective length $l_{\rm eff}$ along the line of sight, which provides dominant contribution to the line flux, increases with R, allowing one to probe the amplitude of the velocity variations at different spatial scales. In particular, we show that the width of the line as a function of R is closely linked to the structure function of the 3D velocity field. Yet another easily obtainable proxy of the velocity field length scales is the ratio of the amplitude of the projected velocity field (line energy) variations to the dispersion of the velocity along the line of sight (line width). Finally the projected velocity field can be easily converted into 3D velocity field, especially for clusters like Coma with an extended flat core in the surface brightness. Under assumption of a homogeneous isotropic Gaussian 3D velocity field we derived simple expressions relating the power spectrum of the 3D velocity field (or structure function) and the observables. The uncertainties in the observables, caused by stochastic nature of the velocity field, are estimated by making multiple realizations of the random Gaussian velocity field and evaluating the scatter in observables. If large scale motions are present in the ICM these uncertainties may dominate the statistical errors of line width and shift measurements.Comment: 15 pages, 10 figures, accepted to MNRA

Indigenous oyster fisheries persisted for millennia and should inform future management

Historical ecology has revolutionized our understanding of fisheries and cultural landscapes, demonstrating the value of historical data for evaluating the past, present, and future of Earth’s ecosystems. Despite several important studies, Indigenous fisheries generally receive less attention from scholars and managers than the 17th–20th century capitalist commercial fisheries that decimated many keystone species, including oysters. We investigate Indigenous oyster harvest through time in North America and Australia, placing these data in the context of sea level histories and historical catch records. Indigenous oyster fisheries were pervasive across space and through time, persisting for 5000–10,000 years or more. Oysters were likely managed and sometimes “farmed,” and are woven into broader cultural, ritual, and social traditions. Effective stewardship of oyster reefs and other marine fisheries around the world must center Indigenous histories and include Indigenous community members to co-develop more inclusive, just, and successful strategies for restoration, harvest, and management.Results - Indigenous fisheries of abundance. - Oysters in monuments and ritual landscapes. - Not all forgotten: Indigenous use of oysters. Indigenous - Capitalist commercial fisheries and ecological collapse. Discussion Method