Analysis of the main drivers of CO2 emissions in different economies : the Spain and Chile cases

El cambio climático (CC) es uno de los grandes desafíos de la humanidad y una de las principales amenazas para el desarrollo sostenible, con grandes consecuencias económicas, sociales y ambientales. Por esta razón, es necesario reducir las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) a la atmósfera, con el dióxido de carbono (CO2) como el principal gas, y obtener una mayor eficiencia energética. Ambas acciones son clave para mitigar el cambio climático. Para conocer con precisión las relaciones entre las variables económicas, demográficas y el volumen de emisiones de GEI que posibilitan el desacoplamiento entre el crecimiento económico y estas emisiones, es necesario medir estas interacciones. A través de estas mediciones, será posible diseñar proyectos energéticos que ayuden a cumplir los objetivos propuestos y llevar a cabo un análisis de los principales determinantes que podrían llevar a conclusiones que ayuden a establecer líneas de acción. El objetivo de este proyecto de tesis doctoral es analizar los determinantes de las emisiones de CO2 en dos economías; la española y la chilena. Esta elección se debe al proyecto de investigación existente entre nuestro grupo de investigación y la Universidad Autónoma de Chile. Las principales contribuciones de esta tesis pueden resumirse brevemente de la siguiente manera: Por un lado, presentamos un análisis de los principales factores determinantes de las emisiones de CO2 en España para el período 1995-2009. Esta investigación lleva a cabo un análisis multisectorial basado en el método Log-Mean Divisia Index (LMDI I). Los factores de descomposición utilizados representan la carbonización del mix energético (CI), la intensidad del uso de la energía (EI), la estructura económica (ES), la actividad económica (EA) y la población (P). Los principales hallazgos muestran que las fuentes de energía renovables (RES, por sus siglas en inglés) actuaron como compensador de los impulsores de las emisiones de CO2. La tendencia positiva de la contribución de las RES en la matriz energética de España, junto con la tendencia negativa en el uso de combustibles fósiles, nos lleva a ser optimistas. Por otro lado, presentamos una evaluación de las emisiones de CO2 en Chile entre 1991 y 2013 utilizando un análisis basado en el método (LMDI I) para examinar las emisiones y sus componentes. Se consideraron seis factores de descomposición: efecto intensidad de carbono (CI), efecto penetración de RES (RES), efecto intensidad de energía (EI), efecto estructura de la economía (ES), efecto ingreso (Yp) y efecto población (P). Para saber cómo estos factores podrían influirse mutuamente en el futuro, se utilizó el Innovative Accounting Approach (IAA), que incluye el análisis de la descomposición de la varianza y la función impulso-respuesta (IRF, pos sus siglas en inglés). Estas dos metodologías nos permiten identificar las causas de los cambios en las emisiones de CO2 en el periodo (1991-2013), evaluar las medidas de política y aprender cómo estos factores podrían influirse mutuamente en el futuro, para evaluar si las medidas actuales cumplen los compromisos de París. Los resultados del análisis LMDI muestran que el factor intensidad de energía es el principal factor de compensación de las emisiones de CO2 en Chile y el único efecto con una clara tendencia a ayudar al desacoplamiento entre crecimiento económico y emisiones de GHG. Los resultados del IAA e IFRs se comportan de manera similar y confirman que el factor intensidad de carbono reacciona a los impactos de manera más significativa en el corto plazo. La reacción a RES tiene el mismo comportamiento y opuesto a los shocks en ES y Yp, para desaparecer a largo plazo. Estos hallazgos representan una contribución importante, no sólo para los investigadores sino también para las empresas y responsables políticos. Para nuestro conocimiento no existen análisis previos de los principales impulsores de CO2 en estas economías. Estos resultados podrían conducir a conclusiones que ayuden a establecer líneas de acción para diseñar proyectos energéticos que ayuden a luchar eficazmente contra el cambio climático.Change (CC) is one of the great challenges of humanity and one of the main threats to sustainable development, with great economic, social and environmental consequences. For this reason, it is necessary to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to the atmosphere, with carbon dioxide (CO2) the main one, and obtain greater awareness of energy efficiency. Both actions are key to mitigate climate change. In order to know precisely the relationships between economic, demographic variables and the volume of GHG emissions to make possible the decoupling between economic growth and these emissions, it is necessary to develop indicators capable of analyzing these interactions. Through these indicators, it will be possible to design energy projects that help to meet the proposed objectives and carry out an analysis of the main determinants that could lead to conclusions that help to establish lines of action. The aim of this doctoral thesis project is to analyze the determinants of CO2 emissions in two economies: Spanish and Chilean. This choice is due to the existing research project between our research group and Universidad Autónoma de Chile. The main contributions of this thesis can be briefly summarized as follows: On the one hand, we present an analysis of main drivers of CO2 emissions in Spain for the 1995–2009 period. This research carries out a multisector analysis based on the Log-Mean Divisia Index Method (LMDI I). The decomposition factors used are the Carbon Intensity factor (CI), the Energy Intensity factor (EI), the structural composition of Spain's economy (Economy Structure, ES), the Economic Activity factor (EA) and Population (P), respectively. Major findings show that renewable energy sources (RES) acted as a compensating factor of the drivers of CO2 emissions. The positive trend for the share of RES in Spain's energy matrix, together with the negative tendency in the use of fossil fuels, leads us to be optimistic. On the second hand, we present an evaluation of the performance of Chile's CO2 emissions between 1991 and 2013 using an analysis based on log-mean divisia index method (LMDI I) to examine emissions and their components. Six decomposition factors were considered: Carbon Intensity effect (CI), RES penetration effect (RES), Energy Intensity effect (EI), Economy Structure effect (ES), Income effect (Yp) and Population effect (P). To know how these factors could influence each other in the future, the Innovative Accounting Approach (IAA) was used, including forecast error variance decomposition and Impulse Response Functions (IRFs). These two methodologies allow us to identify the drivers of CO2 emission changes in the past (1991–2013), test policy measures and learn how these drivers could influence each other in the future, to evaluate whether the current measures meet the Paris Agreement’s commitments. The LMDI analysis results show that the Energy Intensity Factor is the main compensating factor of Chile's CO2 emissions and the only effect with a clear trend to aid the decoupling between economic growth and GHG emissions. IAA and IFRs results react similarly and confirm that carbon intensity reacts to shocks more significantly in the short term. The reaction to RES has the same and opposite behavior to shocks in ES and Yp, to disappear in the long term. These finding represent a major contribution, not only for researchers but also for companies and policy makers. To the best of our knowledge there are no previous analyzes of the main drivers of CO2 in these economies. Results could lead to establish lines of action in order to design energy projects that help to fight against climate change

Does sex education influence sexual and reproductive behaviour of women? Evidence from Mexico

This article examines the influence of sex education on sexual and reproductive behavior in Mexican women. Exposure to in-school sex education is identified and duration-hazard models are estimated to assess its effects on initiation of sexual activity and use of contraception methods, and timing of first and second pregnancies. Results consistently reveal that women exposed to sex education begin using contraception methods earlier. Most evidence indicates that exposed women initiate sexual activity earlier. Findings suggest that timing of first pregnancy is not affected and that second pregnancy is postponed. Overall, outcomes from this study support the idea that sex education contributes to promote preventive sexual health.Sex education; female sexual health; reproductive behavior

On the imputation of rental prices to owner-occupied housing

This paper challenges the usual objections to the possibility of applying the rental equivalent approach to determine the weight that nonrental housing services should have in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Using data from two Spanish household budget surveys, it is shown that market rents can be well represented in terms of an index of housing quality, two geographical variables, and the year of occupancy. This parsimonious empirical model is used to impute a rental value to nonrental housing units, taking into account the possible selection bias induced by systematic differences in housing characteristics between the market rental sector and the nonrental stock. On average, the estimated hedonic values are relatively close to the self-imputations provided in the household surveys by the occupants of such dwellings. Therefore, using either of the two alternatives to assess the importance of nonrental housing services in the CPI have small consequences for inflation. Instead, dropping these services from the CPI creates a downward bias in the measurement of inflation of 0.33 percentage points per year during 1985–1992, and an upward bias of 0.38 percentage points per year during 1993 to 2000.Publicad

The rental equivalence approach to nonrental housing in the consumer price index. evidence from Spain

This paper presents new evidence from Spain that challenges the usual objections to the possibility of applying the rental equivalent approach to determine the weight that non-rental housing services should have in the CPI. Data from the EPFs (Encuestas de Presupuestos Familiares) for 1980-81 and 1990-91 permit a satisfactory explanation of market rents in terms of an index of housing quality, two geographical variables and the year of occupancy. These regression results provide a way to impute a rental value to non-rental housing units that takes into account the possible selection bias induced by systematic differences in housing characteristics between the market rental sector and the non-rental stock. On average, such hedonic values are not that different from the self-imputations provided in the EPFs by the occupants of such dwellings. Therefore, the consequences for inflation of using either of the two alternatives to assess the importance of non-rental housing in the CPI system are small. Instead, if non-rental housing services are dropped from the CPI, then it is estimated that the bias in the measurement of inflation during the 1995-2000 period would be 0.35% per year. The lesson is that, given the alternatives, eliminating non-rental housing services from the CPI -as is done at present in Spain and several other European countries- is an unnecessarily crude form of dealing with a difficult proble

Solitons as a signature of the modulation instability in the discrete nonlinear Schrodinger equation

The effect of the modulation instability on the propagation of solitary waves along one-dimensional discrete nonlinear Schr\"odinger equation with cubic nonlinearity is revisited. A self-contained quasicontinuum approximation is developed to derive closed-form expressions for small-amplitude solitary waves. The notion that the existence of nonlinear solitary waves is a signature of the modulation instability is used to analytically study instability effects on solitons during propagation. In particular, we concern with instability effects in the dark region, where other analytical methods as the standard modulation analysis of planewaves do not provide any information on solitons. The region of high-velocity solitons is studied anew showing that solitons are less prone to intabilities in this region. An analytical upper boundary for the self-defocusing instability is defined.Comment: 16 pages, An important comment on the staggering transformation is now include