Economically viable forest restoration in shifting cultivation landscapes

Shifting cultivation is a predominant land use across the tropics, feeding hundreds of millions of marginalised people, causing significant deforestation, and encompassing a combined area of land ten-fold greater than that used for oil palm and rubber. A key question is whether carbon-based payment for ecosystem services (PES) schemes can cost-effectively bring novel restoration and carbon-sensitive management practices to shifting agriculture. Using economic models that uniquely consider the substantial area of fallow land needed to support a single cultivated plot, we calculated the break-even carbon prices required for PES to match the opportunity cost of intervention in shifting agriculture. We do so in the North-east Indian biodiversity hotspot, where 35.4% of land is managed under shifting agriculture. We found net revenues of US$829.53–2581.95 per 30 ha when fallow area is included, which are an order of magnitude lower than previous estimates. Abandoning shifting agriculture entirely is highly feasible with break-even prices as low as US$1.33 t−1 CO2, but may conflict with food security. The oldest fallow plots could be fully restored for US$0.89 t−1 CO2 and the expansion of shifting agriculture into primary forest halted for US$0.51 t−1 CO2, whereas abandoning short-fallow systems would cost US$12.60 t−1 CO2. A precautionary reanalysis accounting for extreme economic uncertainty and leakage costs suggests that all interventions, excluding abandoning short-fallow systems, remain economically viable with prices less than US$4.00 t−1 CO2. Even with poorly formed voluntary carbon markets, shifting agriculture represents a critical opportunity for low-cost forest restoration whilst diversifying income streams of marginalised communities across a vast area

Global dynamics of functional composition in CITES-traded reptiles

Global wildlife trade is a billion‐dollar industry, with millions of individuals traded annually from a diversity of taxa, many of which are directly threatened by trade. Reptiles exhibiting desirable life‐history or aesthetic traits, such as large body sizes or colorful morphologies, are traded preferentially. A key issue is understanding geographic and temporal variation between desirable species traits and their trade. Poor understanding of this can generalize patterns of consumer trait preferences and conceal functional consequences of wild harvest in ecosystems. Using records of legal, international trade in Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES)‐listed reptiles between 2000 and 2020, we examine geographic and temporal variation in the functional composition of traded assemblages, both captive‐ and wild‐sourced, identifying key hotspots and routes of functional diversity in trade. We also identify associations between functional traits and species presence in trade. We find that functionally diverse trade assemblages are exported primarily from the tropics, with hotspots in sub‐Saharan Africa, and imported across Asia, Europe, and North America. Patterns of functional composition in trade remained broadly stable from 2000 to 2020. Globally, the species most likely to be traded were large, fecund, generalists. Sustained wild harvest of functionally diverse reptilian assemblages in trade hotspots, such as Madagascar and Indonesia, places substantial pressure on large‐bodied reptiles that fulfill important ecological functions, including population control and nutrient cycling, while also endangering harvest‐vulnerable species with slow life histories. Despite limited species‐specific descriptions of reptilian ecological functions, management in harvest hotspots can safeguard ecosystem functioning by prioritizing protection for threatened species that contribute disproportionately to local and regional functional diversity

Wildlife farming: balancing economic and conservation interests in the face of illegal wildlife trade

1. Demand for wildlife and their products continues to grow, often despite increasingly militarised regulation and consumer awareness campaigns. We review the sustainability, legality and feasibility of wildlife farming of animals, as a potential conservation tool to ensure the development of an equitable and sustainable trade model. 2. While there are some positive examples of well-managed wildlife farming in trade, we identify common themes of misuse including the intentional mislabelling of wild-caught specimens in global trade and the use of wild-caught individuals to supplement captive stocks. 3. We also highlight the frequent failure to incorporate biological data into management strategies, resulting in the widespread use of species with potentially unfavourable life history traits, which constrain the economic and biological sustainability of wildlife farming programmes. 4. We develop a structured decision framework to aid the examination of when wildlife farming may most benefit or hinder species conservation. 5. Synthesis and applications. Key opportunities include developing species suitability assessments and removing barriers to legitimate participation with wildlife farming among poor, rural communities. In the absence of management strategies that address the issues of species suitability and accessibility, wildlife farming will continue to place significant strain on wild populations while failing to provide conservation value and sustainable economic returns

Colourful Brazilian anurans are preferentially targeted by wildlife trade

The global wildlife trade is a multi-billion-dollar industry, that when poorly managed, can threaten all major terrestrial taxa. Amphibians are currently the most threatened terrestrial vertebrate taxa, due in part to exploitation. Humans place a high value on the aesthetics of nature, with distinctive morphology often a key driver of wildlife trade. Here, we explore the association of colour on the trade of anuran species traded as both pets (traded alive) and products (traded dead) in Brazil, a hotspot of anuran diversity. We collected colour data on all 64 traded Brazilian anurans plus an additional 216 control species not in trade. Our results highlighted more vibrant colours in traded than non-traded species and that the probability of trade increases with the number of colours present. The presence of blue had the strongest effect on trade probability, followed by orange, black, then yellow, with the remaining colours having no effect on the likelihood of trade. Anurans displaying rarer colours are more likely to be traded and more colours increase the likelihood of trade for pets but not for products. Our results provide crucial evidence that colour diversity in amphibians influences the risk of trade and adds to the growing weight of evidence that colour is a key correlate of trade. This points to the need to focus monitoring and protection efforts on colourful species that are at-risk from unsustainable exploitation

Increasing timber and declining live plant diversity and volumes in global trade from 2000 to 2020

Plants are a vast, lucrative portion of global wildlife trade and the most speciose clade listed under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora-CITES. Here we used the CITES Trade Database and >420,000 records between 2000 and 2020 and assessed the diversity and volume of wild-sourced CITES-listed plants across space and time. Between 2000–2020, over 8.4 million cubic metres of timber, 197 million individual live plants, and 4.6 million kilograms of plant products were traded under CITES, comprising 53, 765, and 74 species, respectively. Most species are traded between key exporter and importer nations, especially China, USA, and Europe. Total diversity of timber species and volumes increased over time, whereas live diversity declined, and product diversity and mass fluctuated uncertainly. Most species were not evaluated by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List when first traded, with high volumes of timber and products concentrated among threatened taxa. The high prevalence of poorly understood species necessitates enhanced rigour in ensuring sustainable CITES trade

The ecological drivers and consequences of wildlife trade

Wildlife trade is a key driver of extinction risk, affecting at least 24% of terrestrial vertebrates. The persistent removal of species can have profound impacts on species extinction risk and selection within populations. We draw together the first review of characteristics known to drive species use - identifying species with larger body sizes, greater abundance, increased rarity or certain morphological traits valued by consumers as being particularly prevalent in trade. We then review the ecological implications of this trade-driven selection, revealing direct effects of trade on natural selection and populations for traded species, which includes selection against desirable traits. Additionally, there exists a positive feedback loop between rarity and trade and depleted populations tend to have easy human access points, which can result in species being harvested to extinction and has the potential to alter source-sink dynamics. Wider cascading ecosystem repercussions from trade-induced declines include altered seed dispersal networks, trophic cascades, long-term compositional changes in plant communities, altered forest carbon stocks, and the introduction of harmful invasive species. Because it occurs across multiple scales with diverse drivers, wildlife trade requires multi-faceted conservation actions to maintain biodiversity and ecological function, including regulatory and enforcement approaches, bottom-up and community-based interventions, captive breeding or wildlife farming, and conservation translocations and trophic rewilding. We highlight three emergent research themes at the intersection of trade and community ecology: (1) functional impacts of trade; (2) altered provisioning of ecosystem services; and (3) prevalence of trade-dispersed diseases. Outside of the primary objective that exploitation is sustainable for traded species, we must urgently incorporate consideration of the broader consequences for other species and ecosystem processes when quantifying sustainability

Association of reproductive traits with captive‐ versus wild‐sourced birds in trade

The wildlife trade is a billion-dollar global business, involving millions of people, thousands of species, and hundreds of millions of individual organisms. Unravelling whether trade targets reproductively distinct species and whether this preference varies between captive- and wild-sourced species is a crucial question. We used a comprehensive list of all bird species traded, trade listings and records kept in compliance with the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES), and a suite of avian reproductive parameters to examine whether wildlife trade is associated with particular facets of life history and to examine the association between life-history traits and captive- and wild-sourced traded volumes over time. Across all trade, CITES listing, and CITES trade, large birds were more likely to be traded and listed, but their longevity and age at maturity were not associated with CITES listing or trade. We found species across almost the full range of trait values in both captive and wild trade between 2000 and 2020. Captive trade volumes clearly associated with relatively longer lived and early-maturing species; these associations remained stable and largely unchanged over time. Trait-volume associations in wild-sourced trade were more uncertain. Only body mass had a clear association, and it varied from negative to positive over time. Although reproductive traits were important in captive-sourced trade, species-level variation dominated trade, with even congeneric species varying greatly in volume despite similar traits. The collection and incorporation of trait data into sustainability assessments of captive breeding facilities are crucial to ensure accurate quotas and guard against laundering

Global hotspots of traded phylogenetic and functional diversity

Wildlife trade is a multibillion-dollar industry1 targeting a hyperdiversity of species2 and can contribute to major declines in abundance3. A key question is understanding the global hotspots of wildlife trade for phylogenetic (PD) and functional (FD) diversity, which underpin the conservation of evolutionary history4, ecological functions5 and ecosystem services benefiting humankind6. Using a global dataset of traded bird and mammal species, we identify that the highest levels of traded PD and FD are from tropical regions, where high numbers of evolutionary distinct and globally endangered species in trade occur. The standardized effect size (ses) of traded PD and FD also shows strong tropical epicentres, with additional hotspots of mammalian ses.PD in the eastern United States and ses.FD in Europe. Large-bodied, frugivorous and canopy-dwelling birds and large-bodied mammals are more likely to be traded whereas insectivorous birds and diurnally foraging mammals are less likely. Where trade drives localized extinctions3, our results suggest substantial losses of unique evolutionary lineages and functional traits, with possible cascading effects for communities and ecosystems5,7. Avoiding unsustainable exploitation and lost community integrity requires targeted conservation efforts, especially in hotspots of traded phylogenetic and functional diversity

Global risk of wildfire across timber production systems

Timber is worth $1.5 trillion US Dollars annually with demand rising, but wildfires increasingly threaten production. Plantations occupy 3% of forests globally and produce 33% of the world’s timber, but a critical question is whether they are more vulnerable to stand-replacing wildfires than natural production forests. We combine forest management and wildfire data to estimate that 15.7 (14.7–16.7) million hectares of natural production forests and 1.4 (1.26–1.64) million hectares of plantations suffered stand-replacing wildfires between 2015 and 2022. Using statistical matching for 17 countries representing 50% of global production and 75% of burned timber-producing forest, we find plantations in temperate regions were twice as likely to suffer stand-replacing wildfires than natural production forests, including in vital timber-producing nations like China and Russia. Plantations in tropical regions showed no clear effect, with national differences ranging from 75% lower to 58% higher risk of burning. Given increasing global reliance on plantation timber, preventing wildfires through landscape-level planning, fire management, and increased plantation diversity is critical for global wood security

Measurement of the correlation between flow harmonics of different order in lead-lead collisions at √sNN = 2.76 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Correlations between the elliptic or triangular flow coefficients vm (m=2 or 3) and other flow harmonics vn (n=2 to 5) are measured using √sNN=2.76 TeV Pb+Pb collision data collected in 2010 by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 7 μb−1. The vm−vn correlations are measured in midrapidity as a function of centrality, and, for events within the same centrality interval, as a function of event ellipticity or triangularity defined in a forward rapidity region. For events within the same centrality interval, v3 is found to be anticorrelated with v2 and this anticorrelation is consistent with similar anticorrelations between the corresponding eccentricities, ε2 and ε3. However, it is observed that v4 increases strongly with v2, and v5 increases strongly with both v2 and v3. The trend and strength of the vm−vn correlations for n=4 and 5 are found to disagree with εm−εn correlations predicted by initial-geometry models. Instead, these correlations are found to be consistent with the combined effects of a linear contribution to vn and a nonlinear term that is a function of v22 or of v2v3, as predicted by hydrodynamic models. A simple two-component fit is used to separate these two contributions. The extracted linear and nonlinear contributions to v4 and v5 are found to be consistent with previously measured event-plane correlations