A stochastic model updating method for parameter variability quantification based on response surface models and Monte Carlo simulation

Stochastic model updating must be considered for quantifying uncertainties inherently existing in real-world engineering structures. By this means the statistical properties,instead of deterministic values, of structural parameters can be sought indicating the parameter variability. However, the implementation of stochastic model updating is much more complicated than that of deterministic methods particularly in the aspects of theoretical complexity and low computational efficiency. This study attempts to propose a simple and cost-efficient method by decomposing a stochastic updating process into a series of deterministic ones with the aid of response surface models and Monte Carlo simulation. The response surface models are used as surrogates for original FE models in the interest of programming simplification, fast response computation and easy inverse optimization. Monte Carlo simulation is adopted for generating samples from the assumed or measured probability distributions of responses. Each sample corresponds to an individual deterministic inverse process predicting the deterministic values of parameters. Then the parameter means and variances can be statistically estimated based on all the parameter predictions by running all the samples. Meanwhile, the analysis of variance approach is employed for the evaluation of parameter variability significance. The proposed method has been demonstrated firstly on a numerical beam and then a set of nominally identical steel plates tested in the laboratory. It is found that compared with the existing stochastic model updating methods, the proposed method presents similar accuracy while its primary merits consist in its simple implementation and cost efficiency in response computation and inverse optimization

Evolutionary history of Pacific salmon in dynamic environments

Contemporary evolution of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) is best viewed in the context of the evolutionary history of the species and the dynamic ecosystems they inhabit. Speciation was complete by the late Miocene, leaving c. six million years for intraspecific diversification. Following the most recent glacial maximum, large areas became available for recolonization. Current intraspecific diversity is thus the product of recent evolution overlaid onto divergent historical lineages forged during recurrent episodes of Pleistocene glaciation. In northwestern North America, dominant habitat features have been relatively stable for the past 5000 years, but salmon ecosystems remain dynamic because of disturbance regimes (volcanic eruptions, landslides, wildfires, floods, variations in marine and freshwater productivity) that occur on a variety of temporal and spatial scales. These disturbances both create selective pressures for adaptive responses by salmon and inhibit long-term divergence by periodically extirpating local populations and creating episodic dispersal events that erode emerging differences. Recent anthropogenic changes are replicated pervasively across the landscape and interrupt processes that allow natural habitat recovery. If anthropogenic changes can be shaped to produce disturbance regimes that more closely mimic (in both space and time) those under which the species evolved, Pacific salmon should be well-equipped to deal with future challenges, just as they have throughout their evolutionary history

Crop loading studies on ‘Caricia’ and ‘Eva’ apples grown in a mild winter area

The crop load level of an apple (Malus × domestica Borkh.) tree impacts fruit yield and quality parameters, tree vigor and biennial bearing. The optimal crop load is that which allows for consistent annual cropping and fruit quality acceptable to the market. We evaluated the effect of crop load on yield and fruit quality of two low-chill apples cv. ‘Caricia’ and ‘Eva’, growing in a mild winter area. During 2010 and 2011 crop load was manually adjusted from 2 or 3 to 17 fruits cm−2 of trunk cross-sectional area (TCSA). Fruit yield was positively related to crop load in both cultivars but mean fruit weight diminished as the crop load increased. For both cultivars, the production of non-commercial and small-sized fruit increased, whereas production of middle-sized fruit diminished as the fruit load increased. Shoot length was not affected by crop load in ‘Eva’ whereas it was reduced in ‘Caricia’. Red skin color (RSC %) had a quadratic response to crop load in ‘Caricia’. On the other hand, the RSC % of ‘Eva’ fruit was adjusted to a negative logarithmic model as an effect of crop load increment. No biennial bearing was observed in either cultivar. This research study suggests that the maximum limit of crop load for both cultivars is 7 fruits cm−2 of TCSA, and the lower limit of crop load was 3 fruits cm−2 of TCSA for ‘Eva’ and 5 fruits cm−2 of TCSA for ‘Caricia’

Stereotyping of medical disability claimants' communication behaviour by physicians: towards more focused education for social insurance physicians

Background: Physicians who hold medical disability assessment interviews (social insurance physicians) are probably influenced by stereotypes of claimants, especially because they have limited time available and they have to make complicated decisions. Because little is known about the influences of stereotyping on assessment interviews, the objectives of this paper were to qualitatively investigate: (1) the content of stereotypes used to classify claimants with regard to the way in which they communicate; (2) the origins of such stereotypes; (3) the advantages and disadvantages of stereotyping in assessment interviews; and (4) how social insurance physicians minimise the undesirable influences of negative stereotyping. Methods: Data were collected during three focus group meetings with social insurance physicians who hold medical disability assessment interviews with sick-listed employees (i.e. claimants). The participants also completed a questionnaire about demographic characteristics. The data were qualitatively analysed in Atlas.ti in four steps, according to the grounded theory and the principle of constant comparison. Results: A total of 22 social insurance physicians participated. Based on their responses, a claimant's communication was classified with regard to the degree of respect and acceptance in the physician-claimant relationship, and the degree of dominance. Most of the social insurance physicians reported that they classify claimants in general groups, and use these classifications to adapt their own communication behaviour. Moreover, the social insurance physicians revealed that their stereotypes originate from information in the claimants' files and first impressions. The main advantages of stereotyping were that this provides a framework for the assessment interview, it can save time, and it is interesting to check whether the stereotype is correct. Disadvantages of stereotyping were that the stereotypes often prove incorrect, they do not give the complete picture, and the claimant's behaviour changes constantly. Social insurance physicians try to minimise the undesirable influences of stereotypes by being aware of counter transference, making formal assessments, staying neutral to the best of their ability, and being compassionate. Conclusions: We concluded that social insurance physicians adapt their communication style to the degree of respect and dominance of claimants in the physician-claimant relationship, but they try to minimise the undesirable influences of stereotypes in assessment interviews. It is recommended that this issue should be addressed in communication skills trainin

An economic appraisal of the Australian Medical Sheepskin for the prevention of sacral pressure ulcers from a nursing home perspective

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Many devices are in use to prevent pressure ulcers, but from most little is known about their effects and costs. One such preventive device is the Australian Medical Sheepskin that has been proven effective in three randomized trials. In this study the costs and savings from the use of the Australian Medical Sheepskin were investigated from the perspective of a nursing home.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>An economic model was developed in which monetary costs and monetary savings in respect of the sheepskin were balanced against each other. The model was applied to a fictional (Dutch) nursing home with 100 beds for rehabilitation patients and a time horizon of one year. Input variables for the model consisted of investment costs for using the sheepskin (purchase and laundry), and savings through the prevented cases of pressure ulcers. The input values for the investment costs and for the effectiveness were empirically based on a trial with newly admitted rehabilitation patients from eight nursing homes. The input values for the costs of pressure ulcer treatment were estimated by means of four different approaches.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Investment costs for using the Australian Medical Sheepskin were larger than the monetary savings obtained by preventing pressure ulcers. Use of the Australian Medical Sheepskin involves an additional cost of approximately €2 per patient per day. Preventing one case of a sacral pressure ulcer by means of the Australian Medical Sheepskin involves an investment of €2,974 when the sheepskin is given to all patients. When the sheepskin is selectively used for more critical patients only, the investment to prevent one case of sacral pressure ulcers decreases to €2,479 (pressure ulcer risk patients) or €1,847 (ADL-severely impaired patients). The factors with the strongest influence on the balance are the frequency of changing the sheepskin and the costs of washing related to this. The economic model was hampered by considerable uncertainty in the estimations of the costs of pressure ulcer treatment.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>From a nursing home perspective, the investment costs for use of the Australian Medical Sheepskin in newly admitted rehabilitation patients are larger than the monetary savings obtained by preventing pressure ulcers.</p

The epigenetic regulator Histone Deacetylase 1 promotes transcription of a core neurogenic programme in zebrafish embryos

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The epigenetic regulator Histone Deacetylase 1 (Hdac1) is required for specification and patterning of neurones and myelinating glia during development of the vertebrate central nervous system (CNS). This co-ordinating function for Hdac1 is evolutionarily conserved in zebrafish and mouse, but the mechanism of action of Hdac1 in the developing CNS is not well-understood.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A genome-wide comparative analysis of the transcriptomes of Hdac1-deficient and wild-type zebrafish embryos was performed, which identified an extensive programme of gene expression that is regulated by Hdac1 in the developing embryo. Using time-resolved expression profiling of embryos, we then identified a small subset of 54 genes within the Hdac1-regulated transcriptome that specifically exhibit robust and sustained Hdac1-dependent expression from early neurogenesis onwards. 18 of these 54 stringently Hdac1-regulated genes encode DNA-binding transcription factors that are implicated in promoting neuronal specification and CNS patterning, including the proneural bHLH proteins Ascl1a and Ascl1b, as well as Neurod4 and Neurod. Relatively few genes are strongly repressed by Hdac1 but expression of the Notch target gene <it>her6 </it>is attenuated by Hdac1 in specific sub-regions of the developing CNS, from early stages of neurogenesis onwards. Selected members of the stringently Hdac1-regulated group of genes were tested for Hdac1 binding to their promoter-proximal <it>cis</it>-regulatory elements. Surprisingly, we found that Hdac1 is specifically and stably associated with DNA sequences within the promoter region of <it>ascl1b </it>during neurogenesis, and that this Hdac1-<it>ascl1b </it>interaction is abolished in <it>hdac1 </it>mutant embryos.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We conclude that Hdac1 regulates histone acetylation and methylation in the developing zebrafish embryo and promotes the sustained, co-ordinate transcription of a small set of transcription factor genes that control expansion and diversification of cell fates within the developing CNS. Our <it>in vivo </it>chromatin immunoprecipitation results also suggest a specific function for Hdac1 in directly regulating transcription of a key member of this group of genes, <it>ascl1b</it>, from the beginning of neurogenesis onwards. Taken together, our observations indicate a novel role for Hdac1 as a positive regulator of gene transcription during development of the vertebrate CNS, in addition to its more well-established function in transcriptional repression.</p

On improvement in ejection fraction with iron chelation in thalassemia major and the risk of future heart failure

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Trials of iron chelator regimens have increased the treatment options for cardiac siderosis in beta-thalassemia major (TM) patients. Treatment effects with improved left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction (EF) have been observed in patients without overt heart failure, but it is unclear whether these changes are clinically meaningful.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This retrospective study of a UK database of TM patients modelled the change in EF between serial scans measured by cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) to the relative risk (RR) of future development of heart failure over 1 year. Patients were divided into 2 strata by baseline LVEF of 56-62% (below normal for TM) and 63-70% (lower half of the normal range for TM).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 315 patients with 754 CMR scans were analyzed. A 1% absolute increase in EF from baseline was associated with a statistically significant reduction in the risk of future development of heart failure for both the lower EF stratum (EF 56-62%, RR 0.818, p < 0.001) and the higher EF stratum (EF 63-70%, RR 0.893 p = 0.001).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These data show that during treatment with iron chelators for cardiac siderosis, small increases in LVEF in TM patients are associated with a significantly reduced risk of the development of heart failure. Thus the iron chelator induced improvements in LVEF of 2.6% to 3.1% that have been observed in randomized controlled trials, are associated with risk reductions of 25.5% to 46.4% for the development of heart failure over 12 months, which is clinically meaningful. In cardiac iron overload, heart mitochondrial dysfunction and its relief by iron chelation may underlie the changes in LV function.</p

From the rhetoric to the real: a critical review of how the concepts of recovery and social inclusion may inform mental health nurse advanced level curricula – the eMenthe project

Objectives This critical review addresses the question of how the concepts of recovery and social inclusion may inform mental health nurse education curricula at Master’s level in order to bring about significant and positive change to practice. Design This is a literature-based critical review incorporating a modified rapid review method. It has been said that if done well, this approach can be highly relevant to health care studies and social interventions, and has substantial claims to be as rigorous and enlightening as other, more conventional approaches to literature (Rolfe, 2008). Data sources In this review, we have accessed contemporary literature directly related to the concepts of recovery and social inclusion in mental health. Review methods We have firstly surveyed the international literature directly related to the concepts of recovery and social inclusion in mental health and used the concept of emotional intelligence to help consider educational outcomes in terms of the required knowledge, skills and attitudes needed to promote these values-based approaches in practice. Results A number of themes have been identified that lend themselves to educational application. International frameworks exist that provide some basis for the developments of recovery and social inclusion approaches in mental health practice, however the review identifies specific areas for future development. Conclusions This is the first article that attempts to scope the knowledge, attitudes and skills required to deliver education for Master’s level mental health nurses based upon the principles of recovery and social inclusion. Emotional intelligence theory may help to identify desired outcomes especially in terms of attitudinal development to promote the philosophy of recovery and social inclusive approaches in advanced practice. Whilst recovery is becoming enshrined in policy, there is a need in higher education to ensure that mental health nurse leaders are able to discern the difference between the rhetoric and the reality

Tropical field stations yield high conservation return on investment

Conservation funding is currently limited; cost‐effective conservation solutions are essential. We suggest that the thousands of field stations worldwide can play key roles at the frontline of biodiversity conservation and have high intrinsic value. We assessed field stations’ conservation return on investment and explored the impact of COVID‐19. We surveyed leaders of field stations across tropical regions that host primate research; 157 field stations in 56 countries responded. Respondents reported improved habitat quality and reduced hunting rates at over 80% of field stations and lower operational costs per km 2 than protected areas, yet half of those surveyed have less funding now than in 2019. Spatial analyses support field station presence as reducing deforestation. These “earth observatories” provide a high return on investment; we advocate for increased support of field station programs and for governments to support their vital conservation efforts by investing accordingly