Size and frequency of natural forest disturbances and Amazon carbon balance

Forest inventory studies in the Amazon indicate a large terrestrial carbon sink. However, field plots may fail to represent forest mortality processes at landscape-scales of tropical forests. Here we characterize the frequency distribution of disturbance events in natural forests from 0.01 ha to 2,651 ha size throughout Amazonia using a novel combination of forest inventory, airborne lidar and satellite remote sensing data. We find that small-scale mortality events are responsible for aboveground biomass losses of B1.28 Pg C y 1 over the entire Amazon region. We also find that intermediate-scale disturbances account for losses of B0.01 Pg C y 1 , and that the largest-scale disturbances as a result of blow-downs only account for losses of B0.003 Pg C y 1 . Simulation of growth and mortality indicates that even when all carbon losses from intermediate and large-scale disturbances are considered, these are outweighed by the net biomass accumulation by tree growth, supporting the inference of an Amazon carbon sink

Increasing biomass in Amazonian forest plots

A previous study by Phillips et al. of changes in the biomass of permanent sample plots in Amazonian forests was used to infer the presence of a regional carbon sink. However, these results generated a vigorous debate about sampling and methodological issues. Therefore we present a new analysis of biomass change in old-growth Amazonian forest plots using updated inventory data. We find that across 59 sites, the above-ground dry biomass in trees that are more than 10 cm in diameter (AGB) has increased since plot establishment by 1.22 ± 0.43 Mg per hectare per year (ha-1 yr-1), where 1 ha = 104 m2), or 0.98 ± 0.38 Mg ha-1 yr-1 if individual plot values are weighted by the number of hectare years of monitoring. This significant increase is neither confounded by spatial or temporal variation in wood specific gravity, nor dependent on the allometric equation used to estimate AGB. The conclusion is also robust to uncertainty about diameter measurements for problematic trees: for 34 plots in western Amazon forests a significant increase in AGB is found even with a conservative assumption of zero growth for all trees where diameter measurements were made using optical methods and/or growth rates needed to be estimated following fieldwork. Overall, our results suggest a slightly greater rate of net stand-level change than was reported by Phillips et al. Considering the spatial and temporal scale of sampling and associated studies showing increases in forest growth and stem turnover, the results presented here suggest that the total biomass of these plots has on average increased and that there has been a regional-scale carbon sink in old-growth Amazonian forests during the previous two decades

Drought early warning based on optimal risk forecasts in regulated river systems: Application to the Jucar River Basin (Spain)

[EN] Droughts are a major threat to water resources systems management. Timely anticipation results crucial to defining strategies and measures to minimise their effects. Water managers make use of monitoring systems in order to characterise and assess drought risk by means of indices and indicators. However, there are few systems currently in operation that are capable of providing early warning with regard to the occurrence of a drought episode. This paper proposes a novel methodology to support and complement drought monitoring and early warning in regulated water resources systems. It is based in the combined use of two models, a water resources optimization model and a stochastic streamflow generation model, to generate a series of results that allow evaluating the future state of the system. The results for the period 1998 2009 in the Jucar River Basin (Spain) show that accounting for scenario change risk can be beneficial for basin managers by providing them with information on the current and future drought situation at any given moment. Our results show that the combination of scenario change probabilities with the current drought monitoring system can represent a major advance towards improved drought management in the future, and add a significant value to the existing national State Index (SI) approach for early warning purposes.This work was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitivity (CGL2009-11798, CGL2012-34978, and CSD2009-00065), and the European Commission FP7 programme (FP7-ENV-2011-282769 and FP7-ENV-2012-308438).Haro Monteagudo, D.; Solera Solera, A.; Andreu Álvarez, J. (2017). Drought early warning based on optimal risk forecasts in regulated river systems: Application to the Jucar River Basin (Spain). Journal of Hydrology. 544:36-45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.11.022S364554

Tracing Magnetic Fields with Ground State Alignment

Observational studies of magnetic fields are vital as magnetic fields play a crucial role in various astrophysical processes, including star formation, accretion of matter, transport processes (e.g., transport of heat), and cosmic rays. We identified a process "ground state alignment" as a new way to determine the magnetic field direction in diffuse medium. The alignment is due to anisotropic radiation impinging on the atom/ion, while the magnetic field induces precession and realign the atom/ion and therefore the polarization of the emitted or absorbed radiation reflects the direction of the magnetic field. The atoms get aligned at their low levels and, as the life-time of the atoms/ions we deal with is long, the alignment induced by anisotropic radiation is susceptible to weak magnetic fields ($1{\rm G}\gtrsim B\gtrsim 10^{-15}$G). Compared to the upper level Hanle effect, atomic realignment is most suitable for the studies of magnetic field in the diffuse medium, where magnetic field is relatively weak. In fact, the effects of atomic/ionic alignment, including the realignment in magnetic field, were studied in the laboratory decades ago, mostly in relation to the maser research. Recently, the atomic effect has been already detected in observations from circumstellar medium and this is a harbinger of future extensive magnetic field studies. A unique feature of the atomic realignment is that they can reveal the 3D orientation of magnetic field. In this article, we shall review the basic physical processes involved in atomic realignment and its applications to interplanetary, circumstellar and interstellar magnetic fields. In addition, our research reveals that the polarization of the radiation arising from the transitions between fine and hyperfine states of the ground level can provide a unique diagnostics of magnetic fields, including those in the Early Universe.Comment: 42 pages, 11 figures, invited review, JQSRT in press, typos correcte

Magnetic Field Measurement with Ground State Alignment

Observational studies of magnetic fields are crucial. We introduce a process "ground state alignment" as a new way to determine the magnetic field direction in diffuse medium. The alignment is due to anisotropic radiation impinging on the atom/ion. The consequence of the process is the polarization of spectral lines resulting from scattering and absorption from aligned atomic/ionic species with fine or hyperfine structure. The magnetic field induces precession and realign the atom/ion and therefore the polarization of the emitted or absorbed radiation reflects the direction of the magnetic field. The atoms get aligned at their low levels and, as the life-time of the atoms/ions we deal with is long, the alignment induced by anisotropic radiation is susceptible to extremely weak magnetic fields ($1{\rm G}\gtrsim B\gtrsim 10^{-15}$G). In fact, the effects of atomic/ionic alignment were studied in the laboratory decades ago, mostly in relation to the maser research. Recently, the atomic effect has been already detected in observations from circumstellar medium and this is a harbinger of future extensive magnetic field studies. A unique feature of the atomic realignment is that they can reveal the 3D orientation of magnetic field. In this article, we shall review the basic physical processes involved in atomic realignment. We shall also discuss its applications to interplanetary, circumstellar and interstellar magnetic fields. In addition, our research reveals that the polarization of the radiation arising from the transitions between fine and hyperfine states of the ground level can provide a unique diagnostics of magnetic fields in the Epoch of Reionization.Comment: 30 pages, 12 figures, chapter in Lecture Notes in Physics "Magnetic Fields in Diffuse Media". arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1203.557

Increasing dominance of large lianas in Amazonian forests

Ecological orthodoxy suggests that old-growth forests should be close to dynamic equilibrium, but this view has been challenged by recent findings that neotropical forests are accumulating carbon and biomass, possibly in response to the increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. However, it is unclear whether the recent increase in tree biomass has been accompanied by a shift in community composition. Such changes could reduce or enhance the carbon storage potential of old-growth forests in the long term. Here we show that non-fragmented Amazon forests are experiencing a concerted increase in the density, basal area and mean size of woody climbing plants (lianas). Over the last two decades of the twentieth century the dominance of large lianas relative to trees has increased by 1.7–4.6% a year. Lianas enhance tree mortality and suppress tree growth, so their rapid increase implies that the tropical terrestrial carbon sink may shut down sooner than current models suggest. Predictions of future tropical carbon fluxes will need to account for the changing composition and dynamics of supposedly undisturbed forests

Effects of primordial chemistry on the cosmic microwave background

Previous works have demonstrated that the generation of secondary CMB anisotropies due to the molecular optical depth is likely too small to be observed. In this paper, we examine additional ways in which primordial chemistry and the dark ages might influence the CMB. We present a detailed and updated chemical network and give an overview of the interactions of molecules with the CMB. We consider the optical depth due to line absorption, photoionization, photodissociation and free-free processes, and estimate the resulting changes in the CMB temperature and its power spectrum. The most promising results are obtained for the negative hydrogen ion \HM and the \HeHII molecule. The free-free process of \HM yields a relative change in the CMB temperature of up to $2\times10^{-11}$, and leads to a frequency-dependent change in the power spectrum of the order $10^{-7}$ at 30 GHz. With a change of the order $10^{-10}$ in the power spectrum, our result for the bound-free process of \HM is significantly below a previous suggestion. \HeHII efficiently scatters CMB photons and smears out primordial fluctuations, leading to a change in the power spectrum of the order $10^{-8}$. Improvements in the accuracy of future CMB experiments may thus help to constrain and finally detect these interesting signals from the dark ages of the universe.Comment: 16 pages, 15 figures, accepted for publication at A&A. Discussion section update

Author Correction: Tree mode of death and mortality risk factors across Amazon forests (Nature Communications, (2020), 11, 1, (5515), 10.1038/s41467-020-18996-3)

The original version of this Article contained an error in Table 2, where the number of individuals in the “All Amazonia” row was reported as 11,6431 instead of 116,431. Also, the original version of this Article contained an error in the Methods, where the R2 for the proportion of broken/uprooted dead trees increase per year was reported as 0.12, the correct value being 0.06. The original version of this Article contained errors in the author affiliations. The affiliation of Gerardo A. Aymard C. with UNELLEZGuanare, Herbario Universitario (PORT), Portuguesa, Venezuela Compensation International Progress S.A. Ciprogress–Greenlife

Methods to estimate aboveground wood productivity from long-term forest inventory plots

Forest inventory plots are widely used to estimate biomass carbon storage and its change over time. While there has been much debate and exploration of the analytical methods for calculating biomass, the methods used to determine rates of wood production have not been evaluated to the same degree. This affects assessment of ecosystem fluxes and may have wider implications if inventory data are used to parameterise biospheric models, or scaled to large areas in assessments of carbon sequestration. Here we use a dataset of 35 long-term Amazonian forest inventory plots to test different methods of calculating wood production rates. These address potential biases associated with three issues that routinely impact the interpretation of tree measurement data: (1) changes in the point of measurement (POM) of stem diameter as trees grow over time; (2) unequal length of time between censuses; and (3) the treatment of trees that pass the minimum diameter threshold (“recruits”). We derive corrections that control for changing POM height, that account for the unobserved growth of trees that die within census intervals, and that explore different assumptions regarding the growth of recruits during the previous census interval. For our dataset we find that annual aboveground coarse wood production (AGWP; in Mg ha−1 year−1 of dry matter) is underestimated on average by 9.2% if corrections are not made to control for changes in POM height. Failure to control for the length of sampling intervals results in a mean underestimation of 2.7% in annual AGWP in our plots for a mean interval length of 3.6 years. Different methods for treating recruits result in mean differences of up to 8.1% in AGWP. In general, the greater the length of time a plot is sampled for and the greater the time elapsed between censuses, the greater the tendency to underestimate wood production. We recommend that POM changes, census interval length, and the contribution of recruits should all be accounted for when estimating productivity rates, and suggest methods for doing this.European UnionUK Natural Environment Research CouncilGordon and Betty Moore FoundationCASE sponsorship from UNEP-WCMCRoyal Society University Research FellowshipERC Advanced Grant “Tropical Forests in the Changing Earth System”Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Awar