Climate and surface mass balance of coastal West Antarctica resolved by regional climate modelling

West Antarctic climate and surface mass balance (SMB) records are sparse. To fill this gap, regional atmospheric climate modelling is useful, providing that such models are employed at sufficiently high horizontal resolution and coupled with a snow model. Here we present the results of a high-resolution (5.5 km) regional atmospheric climate model (RACMO2) simulation of coastal West Antarctica for the period 1979–2015. We evaluate the results with available in situ weather observations, remote-sensing estimates of surface melt, and SMB estimates derived from radar and firn cores. Moreover, results are compared with those from a lower-resolution version, to assess the added value of the resolution. The high-resolution model resolves small-scale climate variability invoked by topography, such as the relatively warm conditions over ice-shelf grounding zones, and local wind speed accelerations. Surface melt and SMB are well reproduced by RACMO2. This dataset will prove useful for picking ice core locations, converting elevation changes to mass changes, for driving ocean, ice-sheet and coupled models, and for attributing changes in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and shelves to changes in atmospheric forcing

Crossing the Interspecies Barrier: Opening the Door to Zoonotic Pathogens

The number of pathogens known to infect humans is ever increasing. Whether such increase reflects improved surveillance and detection or actual emergence of novel pathogens is unclear. Nonetheless, infectious diseases are the second leading cause of human mortality and disability-adjusted life years lost worldwide [1], [2]. On average, three to four new pathogen species are detected in the human population every year [3]. Most of these emerging pathogens originate from nonhuman animal species

Effect of Peer Health Workers on AIDS Care in Rakai, Uganda: A Cluster-Randomized Trial

Human resource limitations are a challenge to the delivery of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low-resource settings. We conducted a cluster randomized trial to assess the effect of community-based peer health workers (PHW) on AIDS care of adults in Rakai, Uganda.15 AIDS clinics were randomized 2:1 to receive the PHW intervention (n = 10) or control (n = 5). PHW tasks included clinic and home-based provision of counseling, clinical, adherence to ART, and social support. Primary outcomes were adherence and cumulative risk of virologic failure (>400 copies/mL). Secondary outcomes were virologic failure at each 24 week time point up to 192 weeks of ART. Analysis was by intention to treat. From May 2006 to July 2008, 1336 patients were followed. 444 (33%) of these patients were already on ART at the start of the study. No significant differences were found in lack of adherence (<95% pill count adherence risk ratio [RR] 0.55, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.23-1.35; <100% adherence RR 1.10, 95% CI 0.94-1.30), cumulative risk of virologic failure (RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.61-1.08) or in shorter-term virologic outcomes (24 week virologic failure RR 0.93, 95% CI 0.65-1.32; 48 week, RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.47-1.48; 72 week, RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.44-1.49). However, virologic failure rates >or=96 weeks into ART were significantly decreased in the intervention arm compared to the control arm (96 week failure RR 0.50, 95% CI 0.31-0.81; 120 week, RR 0.59, 95% CI 0.22-1.60; 144 week, RR 0.39, 95% CI 0.16-0.95; 168 week, RR 0.30, 95% CI 0.097-0.92; 192 week, RR 0.067, 95% CI 0.0065-0.71).A PHW intervention was associated with decreased virologic failure rates occurring 96 weeks and longer into ART, but did not affect cumulative risk of virologic failure, adherence measures, or shorter-term virologic outcomes. PHWs may be an effective intervention to sustain long-term ART in low-resource settings.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00675389

Biomass production of herbaceous energy crops in the United States: field trial results and yield potential maps from the multiyear regional feedstock partnership

Current knowledge of yield potential and best agronomic management practices for perennial bioenergy grasses is primarily derived from small-scale and short-term studies, yet these studies inform policy at the national scale. In an effort to learn more about how bioenergy grasses perform across multiple locations and years, the U.S. Department of Energy (US DOE)/Sun Grant Initiative Regional Feedstock Partnership was initiated in 2008. The objectives of the Feedstock Partnership were to (1) provide a wide range of information for feedstock selection (species choice) and management practice options for a variety of regions and (2) develop national maps of potential feedstock yield for each of the herbaceous species evaluated. The Feedstock Partnership expands our previous understanding of the bioenergy potential of switchgrass, Miscanthus, sorghum, energycane, and prairie mixtures on Conservation Reserve Program land by conducting long-term, replicated trials of each species at diverse environments in the U.S. Trials were initiated between 2008 and 2010 and completed between 2012 and 2015 depending on species. Field-scale plots were utilized for switchgrass and Conservation Reserve Program trials to use traditional agricultural machinery. This is important as we know that the smaller scale studies often overestimated yield potential of some of these species. Insufficient vegetative propagules of energycane and Miscanthus prohibited farm-scale trials of these species. The Feedstock Partnership studies also confirmed that environmental differences across years and across sites had a large impact on biomass production. Nitrogen application had variable effects across feedstocks, but some nitrogen fertilizer generally had a positive effect. National yield potential maps were developed using PRISM-ELM for each species in the Feedstock Partnership. This manuscript, with the accompanying supplemental data, will be useful in making decisions about feedstock selection as well as agronomic practices across a wide region of the country

Population biology of malaria within the mosquito: density-dependent processes and potential implications for transmission-blocking interventions

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The combined effects of multiple density-dependent, regulatory processes may have an important impact on the growth and stability of a population. In a malaria model system, it has been shown that the progression of <it>Plasmodium berghei </it>through <it>Anopheles stephensi </it>and the survival of the mosquito both depend non-linearly on parasite density. These processes regulating the development of the malaria parasite within the mosquito may influence the success of transmission-blocking interventions (TBIs) currently under development.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>An individual-based stochastic mathematical model is used to investigate the combined impact of these multiple regulatory processes and examine how TBIs, which target different parasite life-stages within the mosquito, may influence overall parasite transmission.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The best parasite molecular targets will vary between different epidemiological settings. Interventions that reduce ookinete density beneath a threshold level are likely to have auxiliary benefits, as transmission would be further reduced by density-dependent processes that restrict sporogonic development at low parasite densities. TBIs which reduce parasite density but fail to clear the parasite could cause a modest increase in transmission by increasing the number of infectious bites made by a mosquito during its lifetime whilst failing to sufficiently reduce its infectivity. Interventions with a higher variance in efficacy will therefore tend to cause a greater reduction in overall transmission than a TBI with a more uniform effectiveness. Care should be taken when interpreting these results as parasite intensity values in natural parasite-vector combinations of human malaria are likely to be significantly lower than those in this model system.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A greater understanding of the development of the malaria parasite within the mosquito is required to fully evaluate the impact of TBIs. If parasite-induced vector mortality influenced the population dynamics of <it>Plasmodium </it>species infecting humans in malaria endemic regions, it would be important to quantify the variability and duration of TBI efficacy to ensure that community benefits of control measures are not overestimated.</p

BioSimulators: a central registry of simulation engines and services for recommending specific tools

Computational models have great potential to accelerate bioscience, bioengineering, and medicine. However, it remains challenging to reproduce and reuse simulations, in part, because the numerous formats and methods for simulating various subsystems and scales remain siloed by different software tools. For example, each tool must be executed through a distinct interface. To help investigators find and use simulation tools, we developed BioSimulators (https://biosimulators.org), a central registry of the capabilities of simulation tools and consistent Python, command-line and containerized interfaces to each version of each tool. The foundation of BioSimulators is standards, such as CellML, SBML, SED-ML and the COMBINE archive format, and validation tools for simulation projects and simulation tools that ensure these standards are used consistently. To help modelers find tools for particular projects, we have also used the registry to develop recommendation services. We anticipate that BioSimulators will help modelers exchange, reproduce, and combine simulations

Can a "pre-worn" bearing surface geometry reduce the wear of metal-on-metal hip replacements? – A numerical wear simulation study

Total Hip Replacement (THR) is generally a highly successful treatment for late stage hip joint diseases and wear, however, wear continues to be one of the major causes of metal-on-metal THR's failure. Hip replacements typically experience a two-stage wear; a higher initial wear rate in the beginning followed by a lower steady-state one with the surface profile changed. This alludes to the potential use of a cup with a non-spherical interior cavity with an initial geometry similar to a worn surface which may benefit from lower wear rate. In this paper wear is numerically simulated with a cup having a non-spherical geometry inspired by the initial stage of wear. A wear model was recently developed by the authors for the THR, which considered the lubricated contact in both elastohydrodynamic lubrication (EHL) and mixed lubrication regime, rather than a dry contact used in most of other studies of wear modelling in the academic literature. In this study the wear model has been updated by introducing the 'λ ratio' (the ratio of film thickness to surface roughness) and addressing the non-Newtonian shear-thinning properties of the synovial fluid. This wear model was able to describe the non-linear wear evolution process due to the change of worn profiles. Firstly the wear of a spherical hip joint was simulated until a steady-state wear rate is achieved. Then a non-spherical joint was proposed in which the cup bearing geometry was generated by the previously predicted worn profile from the spherical joint. At last the wear of this "pre-worn" hip bearing was simulated and compared to the spherical one. Approximately 40% reduction in the steady-state wear rate and 50% in the total accumulated wear has been observed in the non-spherical hip joint. This study presented a full numerical analysis of the relationship between lubrication, wear reduction and the geometry change, and quantitatively suggested the optimal geometry to reduce running-in wear

Sensitivity of Pine Island Glacier to observed ocean forcing

We present subannual observations (2009–2014) of a major West Antarctic glacier (Pine Island Glacier) and the neighboring ocean. Ongoing glacier retreat and accelerated ice flow were likely triggered a few decades ago by increased ocean-induced thinning, which may have initiated marine ice-sheet instability. Following a subsequent 60% drop in ocean heat content from early 2012 to late 2013, ice flow slowed, but by < 4%, with flow recovering as the ocean warmed to prior temperatures. During this cold-ocean period, the evolving glacier-bed/ice-shelf system was also in a geometry favorable to stabilization. However, despite a minor, temporary decrease in ice discharge, the basin-wide thinning signal did not change. Thus, as predicted by theory, once marine ice-sheet instability is underway, a single transient high-amplitude ocean cooling has only a relatively minor effect on ice flow. The long-term effects of ocean-temperature variability on ice flow, however, are not yet known

Accelerating Progress Towards the 2030 Neglected Tropical Diseases Targets: How Can Quantitative Modeling Support Programmatic Decisions?

Over the past decade, considerable progress has been made in the control, elimination, and eradication of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Despite these advances, most NTD programs have recently experienced important setbacks; for example, NTD interventions were some of the most frequently and severely impacted by service disruptions due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Mathematical modeling can help inform selection of interventions to meet the targets set out in the NTD road map 2021-2030, and such studies should prioritize questions that are relevant for decision-makers, especially those designing, implementing, and evaluating national and subnational programs. In September 2022, the World Health Organization hosted a stakeholder meeting to identify such priority modeling questions across a range of NTDs and to consider how modeling could inform local decision making. Here, we summarize the outputs of the meeting, highlight common themes in the questions being asked, and discuss how quantitative modeling can support programmatic decisions that may accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets

Atmosphere-ocean-ice interactions in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica

Over recent decades outlet glaciers of the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE), West Antarctica, have accelerated, thinned and retreated, and are now contributing approximately 10% to global sea level rise. All the ASE glaciers flow into ice shelves, and it is the thinning of these since the 1970s, and their ungrounding from “pinning points” that is widely held to be responsible for triggering the glaciers’ decline. These changes have been linked to the inflow of warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) onto the ASE's continental shelf. CDW delivery is highly variable, and is closely related to the regional atmospheric circulation. The ASE is south of the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), which has a large variability and which has deepened in recent decades. The ASL is influenced by the phase of the Southern Annular Mode, along with tropical climate variability. It is not currently possible to simulate such complex atmosphere-ocean-ice interactions in models, hampering prediction of future change. The current retreat could mark the beginning of an unstable phase of the ASE glaciers that, if continued, will result in collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, but numerical ice-sheet models currently lack the predictive power to answer this question. It is equally possible that the recent retreat will be short-lived and that the ASE will find a new stable state. Progress is hindered by incomplete knowledge of bed topography in the vicinity of the grounding line. Furthermore, a number of key processes are still missing or poorly represented in models of ice-flow