Predicting the costs of managing patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

SummaryThe economic consequences of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are considerable, although the factors that best predict costs are largely unknown. This study used a population-based cohort to identify the clinical factors during an index year that were most predictive of increased direct medical costs in the subsequent year, and to develop a predictive model that described the cost variations in COPD.The medical records of 2116 patients enrolled in one regional health system who had COPD and healthcare resource utilisation data for 1998 and 1999, were abstracted for information about symptoms, smoking history, chronic illnesses, and pulmonary function data. All inpatient, outpatient and pharmacy utilisation data for each subject for 1999 were extracted from the database. Total costs for each individual were transformed to a log scale. Potential causes of cost variability (predictor variables) were defined and classified into sets (or domains). Multiple linear regression models were fitted for each domain.The study demonstrated that severity of airflow obstruction, as assessed by FEV1% predicted, is a significant but weak predictor of future healthcare resource utilisation—prior hospitalisation and home oxygen use, the presence of comorbid conditions and symptoms of dyspnoea are better predictors of costs. Those interested in the economic benefits of new COPD treatments and disease management programs need to carefully account for these factors

Attenuation of lung fibrosis in mice with a clinically relevant inhibitor of glutathione-S-transferase π

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a debilitating lung disease characterized by excessive collagen production and fibrogenesis. Apoptosis in lung epithelial cells is critical in IPF pathogenesis, as heightened loss of these cells promotes fibroblast activation and remodeling. Changes in glutathione redox status have been reported in IPF patients. S-glutathionylation, the conjugation of glutathione to reactive cysteines, is catalyzed in part by glutathione-S-transferase π (GSTP). To date, no published information exists linking GSTP and IPF to our knowledge. We hypothesized that GSTP mediates lung fibrogenesis in part through FAS S-glutathionylation, a critical event in epithelial cell apoptosis. Our results demonstrate that GSTP immunoreactivity is increased in the lungs of IPF patients, notably within type II epithelial cells. The FAS-GSTP interaction was also increased in IPF lungs. Bleomycin- and AdTGFβ-induced increases in collagen content, α-SMA, FAS S-glutathionylation, and total protein S-glutathionylation were strongly attenuated in Gstp(–/–) mice. Oropharyngeal administration of the GSTP inhibitor, TLK117, at a time when fibrosis was already apparent, attenuated bleomycin- and AdTGFβ-induced remodeling, α-SMA, caspase activation, FAS S-glutathionylation, and total protein S-glutathionylation. GSTP is an important driver of protein S-glutathionylation and lung fibrosis, and GSTP inhibition via the airways may be a novel therapeutic strategy for the treatment of IPF

Modelling the impacts of agricultural management practices on river water quality in Eastern England

Agricultural diffuse water pollution remains a notable global pressure on water quality, posing risks to aquatic ecosystems, human health and water resources and as a result legislation has been introduced in many parts of the world to protect water bodies. Due to their efficiency and cost-effectiveness, water quality models have been increasingly applied to catchments as Decision Support Tools (DSTs) to identify mitigation options that can be introduced to reduce agricultural diffuse water pollution and improve water quality. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the River Wensum catchment in eastern England with the aim of quantifying the long-term impacts of potential changes to agricultural management practices on river water quality. Calibration and validation were successfully performed at a daily time-step against observations of discharge, nitrate and total phosphorus obtained from high-frequency water quality monitoring within the Blackwater sub-catchment, covering an area of 19.6 km2. A variety of mitigation options were identified and modelled, both singly and in combination, and their long-term effects on nitrate and total phosphorus losses were quantified together with the 95% uncertainty range of model predictions. Results showed that introducing a red clover cover crop to the crop rotation scheme applied within the catchment reduced nitrate losses by 19.6%. Buffer strips of 2 m and 6 m width represented the most effective options to reduce total phosphorus losses, achieving reductions of 12.2% and 16.9%, respectively. This is one of the first studies to quantify the impacts of agricultural mitigation options on long-term water quality for nitrate and total phosphorus at a daily resolution, in addition to providing an estimate of the uncertainties of those impacts. The results highlighted the need to consider multiple pollutants, the degree of uncertainty associated with model predictions and the risk of unintended pollutant impacts when evaluating the effectiveness of mitigation options, and showed that high-frequency water quality datasets can be applied to robustly calibrate water quality models, creating DSTs that are more effective and reliable

Outcomes and care practices for preterm infants born at less than 33 weeks’ gestation: A quality-improvement study

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in children younger than 5 years. We report the changes in neonatal outcomes and care practices among very preterm infants in Canada over 14 years within a national, collaborative, continuous quality-improvement program. METHODS: We retrospectively studied infants born at 23–32 weeks’ gestation who were admitted to tertiary neonatal intensive care units that participated in the Evidence-based Practice for Improving Quality program in the Canadian Neonatal Network from 2004 to 2017. The primary outcome was survival without major morbidity during the initial hospital admission. We quantified changes using process-control charts in 6-month intervals to identify special-cause variations, adjusted regression models for yearly changes, and interrupted time series analyses. RESULTS: The final study population included 50 831 infants. As a result of practice changes, survival without major morbidity increased significantly (56.6% [669/1183] to 70.9% [1424/2009]; adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06–1.10, per year) across all gestational ages. Survival of infants born at 23–25 weeks’ gestation increased (70.8% [97/137] to 74.5% [219/294]; adjusted OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02–1.05, per year). Changes in care practices included increased use of antenatal steroids (83.6% [904/1081] to 88.1% [1747/1983]), increased rates of normothermia at admission (44.8% [520/1160] to 67.5% [1316/1951]) and reduced use of pulmonary surfactant (52.8% [625/1183] to 42.7% [857/2009]). INTERPRETATION: Network-wide quality-improvement activities that include better implementation of optimal care practices can yield sustained improvement in survival without morbidity in very preterm infants

Orbitally forced ice sheet fluctuations during the Marinoan Snowball Earth glaciation

Two global glaciations occurred during the Neoproterozoic. Snowball Earth theory posits that these were terminated after millions of years of frigidity when initial warming from rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations was amplified by the reduction of ice cover and hence a reduction in planetary albedo. This scenario implies that most of the geological record of ice cover was deposited in a brief period of melt-back. However, deposits in low palaeo-latitudes show evidence of glacial–interglacial cycles. Here we analyse the sedimentology and oxygen and sulphur isotopic signatures of Marinoan Snowball glaciation deposits from Svalbard, in the Norwegian High Arctic. The deposits preserve a record of oscillations in glacier extent and hydrologic conditions under uniformly high atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We use simulations from a coupled three-dimensional ice sheet and atmospheric general circulation model to show that such oscillations can be explained by orbital forcing in the late stages of a Snowball glaciation. The simulations suggest that while atmospheric CO2 concentrations were rising, but not yet at the threshold required for complete melt-back, the ice sheets would have been sensitive to orbital forcing. We conclude that a similar dynamic can potentially explain the complex successions observed at other localities

Could Moral Enhancement Interventions be Medically Indicated?

This paper explores the position that moral enhancement interventions could be medically indicated (and so considered therapeutic) in cases where they provide a remedy for a lack of empathy, when such a deficit is considered pathological. In order to argue this claim, the question as to whether a deficit of empathy could be considered to be pathological is examined, taking into account the difficulty of defining illness and disorder generally, and especially in the case of mental health. Following this, Psychopathy and a fictionalised mental disorder (Moral Deficiency Disorder) are explored with a view to consider moral enhancement techniques as possible treatments for both conditions. At this juncture, having asserted and defended the position that moral enhancement interventions could, under certain circumstances, be considered medically indicated, this paper then goes on to briefly explore some of the consequences of this assertion. First, it is acknowledged that this broadening of diagnostic criteria in light of new interventions could fall foul of claims of medicalisation. It is then briefly noted that considering moral enhancement technologies to be akin to therapies in certain circumstances could lead to ethical and legal consequences and questions, such as those regarding regulation, access, and even consent

Recent progress in understanding and projecting regional and global mean sea-level change

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5’s assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003–2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993–2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likely range, indicating that there is a greater probability that sea level rise by 2100 will lie in this range with a corresponding decrease in the likelihood of an additional contribution of several tens of centimeters above the likely range. In view of the comparatively limited state of knowledge and understanding of rapid ice sheet dynamics, we continue to think that it is not yet possible to make reliable quantitative estimates of future GMSL rise outside the likely range. Projections of twenty-first century GMSL rise published since the AR5 depend on results from expert elicitation, but we have low confidence in conclusions based on these approaches. New work on regional projections and emergence of the anthropogenic signal suggests that the two commonly predicted features of future regional sea level change (the increasing tilt across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the dipole in the North Atlantic) are related to regional changes in wind stress and surface heat flux. Moreover, it is expected that sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing, particularly in regions of relatively low unforced variability such as the low-latitude Atlantic, will be detectable over most of the ocean by 2040. The east-west contrast of sea level trends in the Pacific observed since the early 1990s cannot be satisfactorily accounted for by climate models, nor yet definitively attributed either to unforced variability or forced climate change

Setting research priorities to improve global newborn health and prevent stillbirths by 2025.

BACKGROUND: In 2013, an estimated 2.8 million newborns died and 2.7 million were stillborn. A much greater number suffer from long term impairment associated with preterm birth, intrauterine growth restriction, congenital anomalies, and perinatal or infectious causes. With the approaching deadline for the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in 2015, there was a need to set the new research priorities on newborns and stillbirth with a focus not only on survival but also on health, growth and development. We therefore carried out a systematic exercise to set newborn health research priorities for 2013-2025. METHODS: We used adapted Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) methods for this prioritization exercise. We identified and approached the 200 most productive researchers and 400 program experts, and 132 of them submitted research questions online. These were collated into a set of 205 research questions, sent for scoring to the 600 identified experts, and were assessed and scored by 91 experts. RESULTS: Nine out of top ten identified priorities were in the domain of research on improving delivery of known interventions, with simplified neonatal resuscitation program and clinical algorithms and improved skills of community health workers leading the list. The top 10 priorities in the domain of development were led by ideas on improved Kangaroo Mother Care at community level, how to improve the accuracy of diagnosis by community health workers, and perinatal audits. The 10 leading priorities for discovery research focused on stable surfactant with novel modes of administration for preterm babies, ability to diagnose fetal distress and novel tocolytic agents to delay or stop preterm labour. CONCLUSION: These findings will assist both donors and researchers in supporting and conducting research to close the knowledge gaps for reducing neonatal mortality, morbidity and long term impairment. WHO, SNL and other partners will work to generate interest among key national stakeholders, governments, NGOs, and research institutes in these priorities, while encouraging research funders to support them. We will track research funding, relevant requests for proposals and trial registers to monitor if the priorities identified by this exercise are being addressed