Contribution to the hydrobiology of the York River: predicting surface mixed layer depth (destratification, tidal, semilunar, Virginia)

Destratification in the York River, USA, during high spring tides is the result of the interruption of normal two-layer estuarine flow by advection of relatively fresh water in to the River mouth from the Chesapeake Bay. This is due to the presence of a longitudinal salinity gradient in the Bay and a difference of tidal current phase between the River and the Bay. Similar behavior is seen in other subestuaries of the Chesapeake Bay and may be common in subestuary-estuary interactions. Correlation and regression analysis are used to examine relationships between stratification variation in the lower York River and a variety of tidal and environmental parameters. A gross measure of stratification was derived from near surface and deep salinity samples. One hundred fifty six observations were made over a 434 day period from February 1982 to April 1983. The environmental and tidal factors evaluated were assessed on a daily basis and incorporated a variety of transformations. The factors included wind speed and direction, fresh water river flow from both the York and Rappahanock Rivers, water temperature, mean sea level and the following tidal parameters: observed and predicted daily mean and maximum high and low tide height, flood, ebb, and combined flood and ebb tidal ranges for Gloucester Point and for Hampton Roads. The results indicate that: (1) almost all of the tidal range or high tide height factors tested are equally strongly correlated with salinity difference, being associated with as much as 48% of the variation in that value; (2) that a combination of functions of tidal range and mean sea level at Gloucester Point are associated with more than 70% of the variation; and (3) that with the addition of wind stress terms as much as 80% of the variation can be included in the model. Over a range of observed salinity differences from 0.01 to 11.06 per mille the 25 term model predicts a range of -1.01 to 11.09 per mile with a root mean squared error of 0.99 per mile. A model predicting variation in surface mixed layer depth from salinity difference is also presented

Non-Naturalist Moral Realism and the Limits of Rational Reflection

This essay develops the epistemic challenge to non-naturalist moral realism. While evolutionary considerations do not support the strongest claims made by ‘debunkers’, they do provide the basis for an inductive argument that our moral dispositions and starting beliefs are at best partially reliable. So, we need some method for separating truth from falsity. Many non-naturalists think that rational reflection can play this role. But rational reflection cannot be expected to bring us to truth even from reasonably accurate starting points. Reflection selects views that are coherent and conflict-free, yet there is no reason to think that the non-natural moral truth must be like this. Inasmuch as we seek coherent, conflict-free, ethical viewpoints, that suggests that our goal is not non-natural truth at all

Symptom profiles and accuracy of clinical case definitions for COVID-19 in a community cohort: results from the Virus Watch study

Background: Understanding symptomatology and accuracy of clinical case definitions for community COVID-19 cases is important for Test, Trace and Isolate (TTI) and future targeting of early antiviral treatment. Methods: Community cohort participants prospectively recorded daily symptoms and swab results (mainly undertaken through the UK TTI system). We compared symptom frequency, severity, timing, and duration in test positive and negative illnesses. We compared the test performance of the current UK TTI case definition (cough, high temperature, or loss of or altered sense of smell or taste) with a wider definition adding muscle aches, chills, headache, or loss of appetite. Results: Among 9706 swabbed illnesses, including 973 SARS-CoV-2 positives, symptoms were more common, severe and longer lasting in swab positive than negative illnesses. Cough, headache, fatigue, and muscle aches were the most common symptoms in positive illnesses but also common in negative illnesses. Conversely, high temperature, loss or altered sense of smell or taste and loss of appetite were less frequent in positive illnesses, but comparatively even less frequent in negative illnesses. The current UK definition had 81% sensitivity and 47% specificity versus 93% and 27% respectively for the broader definition. 1.7-fold more illnesses met the broader case definition than the current definition. Conclusions: Symptoms alone cannot reliably distinguish COVID-19 from other respiratory illnesses. Adding additional symptoms to case definitions could identify more infections, but with a large increase in the number needing testing and the number of unwell individuals and contacts self-isolating whilst awaiting results

Funny walking : the rise, fall and rise of the Anglo-American comic eccentric dancer

This article will attempt to reposition comic eccentric dance as a metamorphic form that still, surprisingly, exists, and is to be found with reasonable ubiquity, in renewed incarna-tions within twenty first century media. Tracing the origins of comic eccentric dance through examples of earlier comedy performance, and drawing from Bergson’s comic theory of body misalliance, this article will dis-cuss this particularly ludic fusion of music and comedy. Further changes to the form affected by modernist preoccupations during the new Jazz Age at the turn of the twentieth century will be suggested. Finally, ways in which the formulation lives on in twenty-first century in-carnations in the comedy work of, for instance, Jimmy Fallon and Ricky Gervase, and in popular television shows such as Strictly Come Dancing (BBC 2004 - ) and Britain’s Got Talent (ITV 2006 - ) will be posited

Household overcrowding and risk of SARS-CoV-2: analysis of the Virus Watch prospective community cohort study in England and Wales [version 1; peer review: 1 approved, 2 approved with reservations]

Household overcrowding is associated with increased risk of infectious diseases across contexts and countries. Limited data exist linking household overcrowding and risk of COVID-19. We used data collected from the Virus Watch cohort to examine the association between overcrowded households and SARS-CoV-2. Methods: The Virus Watch study is a household community cohort of acute respiratory infections in England and Wales. We calculated overcrowding using the measure of persons per room for each household. We considered two primary outcomes: PCR-confirmed positive SARS-CoV-2 antigen tests and laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. We used mixed-effects logistic regression models that accounted for household structure to estimate the association between household overcrowding and SARS-CoV-2 infection. Results: 26,367 participants were included in our analyses. The proportion of participants with a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR result was highest in the overcrowded group (9.0%; 99/1,100) and lowest in the under-occupied group (4.2%; 980/23,196). In a mixed-effects logistic regression model, we found strong evidence of an increased odds of a positive PCR SARS-CoV-2 antigen result (odds ratio 2.45; 95% CI:1.43-4.19; p-value=0.001) and increased odds of a positive SARS-CoV-2 antibody result in individuals living in overcrowded houses (3.32; 95% CI:1.54-7.15; p-value<0.001) compared with people living in under-occupied houses. Conclusion: Public health interventions to prevent and stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2 should consider the risk of infection for people living in overcrowded households and pay greater attention to reducing household transmission

The Origins of AGN Obscuration: The 'Torus' as a Dynamical, Unstable Driver of Accretion

Multi-scale simulations have made it possible to follow gas inflows onto massive black holes (BHs) from galactic scales to the accretion disk. When sufficient gas is driven towards the BH, gravitational instabilities generically form lopsided, eccentric disks that propagate inwards. The lopsided stellar disk exerts a strong torque on the gas disk, driving inflows that fuel rapid BH growth. Here, we investigate whether the same gas disk is the 'torus' invoked to explain obscured AGN. The disk is generically thick and has characteristic ~1-10 pc sizes and masses resembling those required of the torus. The scale heights and obscured fractions of the predicted torii are substantial even in the absence of strong stellar feedback providing the vertical support. Rather, they can be maintained by strong bending modes and warps excited by the inflow-generating instabilities. Other properties commonly attributed to feedback processes may be explained by dynamical effects: misalignment between torus and host galaxy, correlations between local SFR and turbulent gas velocities, and dependence of obscured fractions on AGN luminosity or SFR. We compare the predicted torus properties with observations of gas surface density profiles, kinematics, scale heights, and SFR densities in AGN nuclei, and find that they are consistent. We argue that it is not possible to reproduce these observations and the observed column density (N_H) distribution without a clumpy gas distribution, but allowing for clumping on small scales the predicted N_H distribution is in good agreement with observations from 10^20-27 cm^-2. We examine how N_H scales with galaxy and AGN properties, and find that AGN feedback may be necessary to explain some trends with luminosity and/or redshift. The torus is not merely a bystander or passive fuel source for accretion, but is itself the mechanism driving accretion.Comment: 20 pages, 10 figures, accepted to MNRAS (matches accepted version

Forecasting drug utilization and expenditure in a metropolitan health region

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>New pharmacological therapies are challenging the healthcare systems, and there is an increasing need to assess their therapeutic value in relation to existing alternatives as well as their potential budget impact. Consequently, new models to introduce drugs in healthcare are urgently needed. In the metropolitan health region of Stockholm, Sweden, a model has been developed including early warning (horizon scanning), forecasting of drug utilization and expenditure, critical drug evaluation as well as structured programs for the introduction and follow-up of new drugs. The aim of this paper is to present the forecasting model and the predicted growth in all therapeutic areas in 2010 and 2011.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Linear regression analysis was applied to aggregate sales data on hospital sales and dispensed drugs in ambulatory care, including both reimbursed expenditure and patient co-payment. The linear regression was applied on each pharmacological group based on four observations 2006-2009, and the crude predictions estimated for the coming two years 2010-2011. The crude predictions were then adjusted for factors likely to increase or decrease future utilization and expenditure, such as patent expiries, new drugs to be launched or new guidelines from national bodies or the regional Drug and Therapeutics Committee. The assessment included a close collaboration with clinical, clinical pharmacological and pharmaceutical experts from the regional Drug and Therapeutics Committee.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The annual increase in total expenditure for prescription and hospital drugs was predicted to be 2.0% in 2010 and 4.0% in 2011. Expenditures will increase in most therapeutic areas, but most predominantly for antineoplastic and immune modulating agents as well as drugs for the nervous system, infectious diseases, and blood and blood-forming organs.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The utilisation and expenditure of drugs is difficult to forecast due to uncertainties about the rate of adoption of new medicines and various ongoing healthcare reforms and activities to improve the quality and efficiency of prescribing. Nevertheless, we believe our model will be valuable as an early warning system to start developing guidance for new drugs including systems to monitor their effectiveness, safety and cost-effectiveness in clinical practice.</p

SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 is associated with greater disease severity among hospitalised women but not men: multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 has been associated with an increased rate of transmission and disease severity among subjects testing positive in the community. Its impact on hospitalised patients is less well documented. METHODS: We collected viral sequences and clinical data of patients admitted with SARS-CoV-2 and hospital-onset COVID-19 infections (HOCIs), sampled 16 November 2020 to 10 January 2021, from eight hospitals participating in the COG-UK-HOCI study. Associations between the variant and the outcomes of all-cause mortality and intensive therapy unit (ITU) admission were evaluated using mixed effects Cox models adjusted by age, sex, comorbidities, care home residence, pregnancy and ethnicity. FINDINGS: Sequences were obtained from 2341 inpatients (HOCI cases=786) and analysis of clinical outcomes was carried out in 2147 inpatients with all data available. The HR for mortality of B.1.1.7 compared with other lineages was 1.01 (95% CI 0.79 to 1.28, p=0.94) and for ITU admission was 1.01 (95% CI 0.75 to 1.37, p=0.96). Analysis of sex-specific effects of B.1.1.7 identified increased risk of mortality (HR 1.30, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.78, p=0.096) and ITU admission (HR 1.82, 95% CI 1.15 to 2.90, p=0.011) in females infected with the variant but not males (mortality HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.10, p=0.177; ITU HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.52 to 1.04, p=0.086). INTERPRETATION: In common with smaller studies of patients hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2, we did not find an overall increase in mortality or ITU admission associated with B.1.1.7 compared with other lineages. However, women with B.1.1.7 may be at an increased risk of admission to intensive care and at modestly increased risk of mortality.This report was produced by members of the COG-UK-HOCI Variant substudy consortium. COG-UK-HOCI is part of COG-UK. COG-UK is supported by funding from the Medical Research Council (MRC) part of UK Research & Innovation (UKRI), the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) and Genome Research Limited, operating as the Wellcome Sanger Institute