Dynamic impacts of a financial reform of the CAP on regional land use, income and overall growth

In this paper we investigate the impacts of abolishing the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) for the post-2013 European Union (EU) financial perspective and the impacts of re-investing the released funds on research and development (R&D). We apply a linked system of models to analyze the impacts for the EU member states. The linked system consists of five land-use sector models (agriculture, forestry, urban area, tourism and transport infrastructure), which are connected to a macro-econometric model. Additionally, a land cover model is used to disaggregate land use countries to a 1 km² grid. Three scenarios are analysed. In the “baseline” currently decided policies are assumed to be continued until 2025. In the “tax rebate” scenario agricultural support (first pillar) is removed, and the member states’ contributions to EU lowered. In the “R&D investments” scenario agricultural support is also removed, and the released funds are used to increase general R&D efforts in the EU. We find that in both liberalization scenarios, agricultural producer prices drop compared to the baseline. Agricultural production drops too, but less so in the “R&D investment” scenario due to productivity gains resulting from the increased R&D spending. In some countries, the productivity gains totally offset the negative impact of liberalisation on agricultural production. Smaller agricultural production implies less agricultural land use, and the more so in the “R&D Investment” scenario where productivity increases. The fall in agricultural production and prices negatively affects economic activity and households’ purchasing power, but the reduced direct taxation compensates this effect and results in a GDP gain of 0.53% and 0.8 million additional jobs. In “R&D investment” GDP gain reaches 2.57% and yields 2.95 million additional jobs in EU in 2025. The GDP, consumption and employment gains in the “R&D Investment” scenario widely exceed the losses in the agriculture sectors. The analysis indicates that if no external effects of agriculture are considered, then the CAP is an inefficient use of tax money, and that a considerable contribution to reaching the goals of the Lisbon agenda would be achieved if the same amount of money was instead invested in R&D.CAP reform, economical growth, land use, Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use,

Linking models for land use analysis: experiences from the SENSOR project

In order to quantify the effects of a comprehensive set of policies on land use, interaction between sectors needs to be accounted for, while maintaining a high level of detail for each sector. This calls for a combination of sector specific and sector wide models. This paper describes such a modelling system, with emphasis on the linking of the models to a coherent system. Five sectors of significant importance for land use are modelled individually: Forestry, agriculture, urban land use, transport infrastructure, and tourism. All models are connected as sub-modules to an economy-wide partial econometric model. In addition, a land cover model is used to disaggregate land use down to 1km grid resolution. The linking of such a diverse set of models in a consistent way poses conceptual as well as practical issues. The conceptual issues concern questions such as which items of the models to link, how to obtain a stable joint baseline scenario, and how to obtain a joint equilibrium solution for all models simultaneously in simulation. Practical issues concern the actual implementation of the conceptually sound linkages and provision of a workable technical solution. The linked system allows us to introduce a shock in either of the models, and the set of results will provide a joint solution for all sectors modelled in SENSOR. In this manner, the models take a complex policy scenario as argument and compute a comprehensive set of variables involving all five land use sectors on regional level, which in turn forms a basis for distilling out the impact on sustainability in the form of indicators. Without the extensive automation and technical linkages, it would not have been possible to obtain a joint equilibrium, or it would have required exorbitant amounts of working time.Model linking, sustainable land use, cross sector modelling, iterative recalibration, Land Economics/Use,

Neonatal screening for congenital hypothyroidism in the Netherlands: Cognitive and motor outcome at 10 years of age

Contains fulltext : 35300.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)CONTEXT: Patients with thyroidal congenital hypothyroidism (CH-T) born in The Netherlands in 1981-1982 showed persistent intellectual and motor deficits during childhood and adulthood, despite initiation of T(4) supplementation at a median age of 28 d after birth. OBJECTIVE: The present study examined whether advancement of treatment initiation to 20 d had resulted in improved cognitive and motor outcome. DESIGN/SETTING/PATIENTS: In 82 Dutch CH-T patients, born in 1992 to 1993 and treated at a median age of 20 d (mean, 22 d; range, 2-73 d), cognitive and motor outcome was assessed (mean age, 10.5 yr; range, 9.6-11.4 yr). Severity of CH-T was classified according to pretreatment free T(4) concentration. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Cognitive and motor outcome of the 1992-1993 cohort in comparison to the 1981 to 1982 cohort was the main outcome measure. RESULTS: Patients with severe CH-T had lower full-scale (93.7), verbal (94.9), and performance (93.9) IQ scores than the normative population (P < 0.05), whereas IQ scores of patients with moderate and mild CH-T were comparable to those of the normative population. In all three severity subgroups, significant motor problems were observed, most pronounced in the severe CH-T group. No correlations were found between starting day of treatment and IQ or motor outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Essentially, findings from the 1992-1993 cohort were similar to those of the 1981-1982 cohort. Apparently, advancing initiation of T(4) supplementation from 28 to 20 d after birth did not result in improved cognitive or motor outcome in CH-T patients

Quantifying nitrogen fluxes and their influence on the greenhouse gas balance: recent findings of the NitroEurope Integrated Project

The generation of reactive nitrogen (Nr) by human activities to stimulate agricultural productivity and the unintended formation of Nr in combustion processes both have major impacts on the global environment. Effects of excess Nr include the deterioration of air quality, water quality, soil quality and a decline in biodiversity. One of the most controversial impacts of nitrogen, however, is on the greenhouse gas balance. While recent papers have highlighted a possible benefit of nitrogen in enhancing rates of carbon sequestration, there remain many trade-offs between nitrogen and greenhouse gas exchange. The result is that the net effect of Nr on the global radiative balance has yet to be fully quantified. To better understand these relationships requires intense measurement and modelling of Nr fluxes at various temporal and spatial scales in order to make the link between different nitrogen forms and their fate in the environment. It is essential to measure fluxes for a wide range of ecosystems considering the biosphere-atmosphere exchange of the Nr components and greenhouse gases, as well as the fixation of di-nitrogen and its creation by denitrification. Long-term observations are needed for representative ecosystems, together with results from experiments addressing the responses of the key nitrogen and greenhouse gas fluxes to different global change drivers. The NitroEurope Integrated Project (in short NEU IP), funded under the 6th Framework Programme of the European Commission, has developed and applied a strategy for quantifying these different terms on multiple scales. With the project nearing completion, this presentation reports selected preliminary findings. It highlights the first estimates of Nr inputs and net green-house gas exchange for a series of 13 flux ‘supersites’, complemented by the emerging results of Nr concentrations and related N inputs at a network of 58 ‘inferential sites’, which extend the European representativity of the results. In addition, new low cost methods to measure nitrogen fluxes will be reported, which have been extensively tested at those sites. Results from this 3-tier flux network are underpinned by emerging findings from an extensive network of manipulation sites. A combination of modelling at plot, landscape and European scales is used to upscale the results. Finally the talk will illustrate how nitrogen mitigation techniques are being considered at the European scale, including an estimation of the scale of costs involved in simultaneously mitigating nitrous oxide, ammonia and nitrate losse

FOXO Regulates Organ-Specific Phenotypic Plasticity In Drosophila

Phenotypic plasticity, the ability for a single genotype to generate different phenotypes in response to environmental conditions, is biologically ubiquitous, and yet almost nothing is known of the developmental mechanisms that regulate the extent of a plastic response. In particular, it is unclear why some traits or individuals are highly sensitive to an environmental variable while other traits or individuals are less so. Here we elucidate the developmental mechanisms that regulate the expression of a particularly important form of phenotypic plasticity: the effect of developmental nutrition on organ size. In all animals, developmental nutrition is signaled to growing organs via the insulin-signaling pathway. Drosophila organs differ in their size response to developmental nutrition and this reflects differences in organ-specific insulin-sensitivity. We show that this variation in insulin-sensitivity is regulated at the level of the forkhead transcription factor FOXO, a negative growth regulator that is activated when nutrition and insulin signaling are low. Individual organs appear to attenuate growth suppression in response to low nutrition through an organ-specific reduction in FOXO expression, thereby reducing their nutritional plasticity. We show that FOXO expression is necessary to maintain organ-specific differences in nutritional-plasticity and insulin-sensitivity, while organ-autonomous changes in FOXO expression are sufficient to autonomously alter an organ's nutritional-plasticity and insulin-sensitivity. These data identify a gene (FOXO) that modulates a plastic response through variation in its expression. FOXO is recognized as a key player in the response of size, immunity, and longevity to changes in developmental nutrition, stress, and oxygen levels. FOXO may therefore act as a more general regulator of plasticity. These data indicate that the extent of phenotypic plasticity may be modified by changes in the expression of genes involved in signaling environmental information to developmental processes

Genetically predicted longer telomere length is associated with increased risk of B-cell lymphoma subtypes

Evidence from a small number of studies suggests that longer telomere length measured in peripheral leukocytes is associated with an increased risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). However, these studies may be biased by reverse causation, confounded by unmeasured environmental exposures and might miss time points for which prospective telomere measurement would best reveal a relationship between telomere length and NHL risk. We performed an analysis of genetically inferred telomere length and NHL risk in a study of 10 102 NHL cases of the four most common B-cell histologic types and 9562 controls using a genetic risk score (GRS) comprising nine telomere length-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms. This approach uses existing genotype data and estimates telomere length by weighing the number of telomere length-associated variant alleles an individual carries with the published change in kb of telomere length. The analysis of the telomere length GRS resulted in an association between longer telomere length and increased NHL risk [four B-cell histologic types combined; odds ratio (OR) = 1.49, 95% CI 1.22–1.82, P-value = 8.5 × 10−5]. Subtype-specific analyses indicated that chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL) was the principal NHL subtype contributing to this association (OR = 2.60, 95% CI 1.93–3.51, P-value = 4.0 × 10−10). Significant interactions were observed across strata of sex for CLL/SLL and marginal zone lymphoma subtypes as well as age for the follicular lymphoma subtype. Our results indicate that a genetic background that favors longer telomere length may increase NHL risk, particularly risk of CLL/SLL, and are consistent with earlier studies relating longer telomere length with increased NHL risk

Genome-wide Association Study Identifies Five Susceptibility Loci for Follicular Lymphoma outside the HLA Region

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of follicular lymphoma (FL) have previously identified human leukocyte antigen (HLA) gene variants. To identify additional FL susceptibility loci, we conducted a large-scale two-stage GWAS in 4,523 case subjects and 13,344 control subjects of European ancestry. Five non-HLA loci were associated with FL risk: 11q23.3 (rs4938573, p = 5.79 × 10−20) near CXCR5; 11q24.3 (rs4937362, p = 6.76 × 10−11) near ETS1; 3q28 (rs6444305, p = 1.10 × 10−10) in LPP; 18q21.33 (rs17749561, p = 8.28 × 10−10) near BCL2; and 8q24.21 (rs13254990, p = 1.06 × 10−8) near PVT1. In an analysis of the HLA region, we identified four linked HLA-DRβ1 multiallelic amino acids at positions 11, 13, 28, and 30 that were associated with FL risk (pomnibus = 4.20 × 10−67 to 2.67 × 10−70). Additional independent signals included rs17203612 in HLA class II (odds ratio [ORper-allele] = 1.44; p = 4.59 × 10−16) and rs3130437 in HLA class I (ORper-allele = 1.23; p = 8.23 × 10−9). Our findings further expand the number of loci associated with FL and provide evidence that multiple common variants outside the HLA region make a significant contribution to FL risk

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms